Trump's tariffs have triggered a lot of people, it seems. There's a legion of commentators, some of whom I greatly respect, who are practically fulminating about how the US is doomed, incapable of actually reindustrializing, and how this will ruin the GAE and the dollar and ensure a century of Chinese ascendance.
Um, isn't that what you want? What's the problem, then?
Unless you fear that Trump is both crazy like a fox and has the devil's own luck, so he might just pull this off, and the whole paradigm of inevitable GAE decline and fall is going to crumble on the brink of fulfillment?
My big problem with quantitative analysis is that it doesn't account for the moral/spiritual/psychological factors, because they're not really quantifiable. If someone is determined enough, or even too stupid to realize something "can't be done", they just go ahead and try to do it, and maybe even succeed through sheer grit. You simply have to make a distinction between "impossible" and "highly unlikely."
The GAE suffers from the opposite problem, mind you: everything there is mind over matter, an issue of messaging and marketing, wish hard enough and it will manifest. That kind of approach ignores objective reality altogether, so little wonder it fails so often (*cough* Bidenomics/Green New Deal/etc *cough*).
All this is to say that I don't know what's actually going to happen, because I don't have the numbers yet OR the sufficient feel for the collective sentiment. All I'm saying is that the former actually depend on the latter, a lot, and we ignore that at our peril.
