Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
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Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Труха⚡️Україна
Труха⚡️Україна
Николаевский Ванёк
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TheNebulator avatar
TheNebulator
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TheNebulator
22.04.202518:44
Russia's supposed offer to settle for US recognition of Crimea and freezing the current frontlines — as claimed by Financial Times — is most likely wishful thinking on part of anonymous sources.

I can't rule out the possibility of Moscow snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (many such cases!) but this goes so much against everything I've heard and seen since December 2021 that it just seems highly unlikely.
10.04.202518:47
Trump "changing his mind" about the tariffs for 90 days (except for China!) makes no difference here. I'm already reading cope takes that he either "caved" (mainly from Democrats and multipolar bros) or flawlessly executed some master plan (a preference of Republicans for whom he can do no wrong).

Everyone thinks they know everything and bases conclusions solely on public statements (or bad interpretations thereof), while no one seems to have the patience to assess the impact of actions. Precisely what I was talking about in the previous post: Marketing over matter, and analysis thereof.
02.04.202521:15
Trump's tariffs are intended to stimulate US domestic manufacturing, which has withered since the advent of globalization, and give him leverage in trade talks with the rest of the world. If they raise any revenue, it will be a bonus.

I'm honestly not sure if he will succeed. Perhaps the US is too far gone, devoured by bankers and financial speculation. Perhaps tomorrow some random federal judge will say "you can't do that". But he has to try.

Implications for the rest of the world? Whoever wants to keep trading with America will need to adjust. This may push some countries into looking for markets elsewhere. But it's hard to overcome decades of conditioning.

Trump is waving an awful lot of the stick and very little of the carrot. But when people behave like donkeys, can't blame him for using the tools and tactics that work.
28.03.202517:28
Putin has proposed some kind of international protectorate for Ukraine until they can have elections and get a legitimate government that would be able to sign a peace deal. If this is a genuine proposal, it makes a ton of sense: Zelensky's mandate expired in 2019, and there is literally nothing in the Ukrainian constitution that allows him to extend it.

The West and the UN immediately rejected the idea, however, arguing that Ukraine is a sovereign and independent country that can decide for itself.

One problem: This is literally not true. The salaries of Ukrainian government officials (and even pensions for its civilians) are currently paid by Western taxpayers. The GAE is the only thing keeping that failed state on life support. So it's technically already a protectorate.

Secondly, if countries being internationally recognized as independent and sovereign and members of the UN is the criteria here, why in the name of everything unholy is there still a "high representative" (of whom, exactly?) in Bosnia-Herzegovina, with a random German national currently being paid princely sums to LARP as an unaccountable autocrat?

If this arrangement is good enough fo Bosnia, 30 years (!) after its civil war ended, then why not for Ukraine? Because the West says so? That's not how it works anymore.
24.03.202517:47
On this day in 1999, NATO proved it was never a "defensive alliance" and began bombing then-Yugoslavia. I wrote about it 20 years ago for Antiwar.com and think it has aged surprisingly well. But I urge you to have a read for yourself.

This was the peak of the GAE's creation process in the 1990s, and sowed the seeds of its ultimate undoing, by waking up Russia from the post-Communist stupor. We live in a world shaped by that war, whether many of us are aware of it or not.
18.03.202511:33
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15.04.202515:39
EU's threat to "Western Balkans" (i.e. shards of Yugoslavia) aspirants not to dare go to Moscow for the Victory Day parade might have seemed like a flex to the Balts and other chihuahuas at first, but it's merely cementing the perception (based on reality) that Russia is fighting against a modern-day iteration of the Third Reich.

What was that Admiral Nelson used to say about interrupting your enemy when he's making a mistake?
09.04.202519:36
Trump's tariffs have triggered a lot of people, it seems. There's a legion of commentators, some of whom I greatly respect, who are practically fulminating about how the US is doomed, incapable of actually reindustrializing, and how this will ruin the GAE and the dollar and ensure a century of Chinese ascendance.

Um, isn't that what you want? What's the problem, then?

Unless you fear that Trump is both crazy like a fox and has the devil's own luck, so he might just pull this off, and the whole paradigm of inevitable GAE decline and fall is going to crumble on the brink of fulfillment?

My big problem with quantitative analysis is that it doesn't account for the moral/spiritual/psychological factors, because they're not really quantifiable. If someone is determined enough, or even too stupid to realize something "can't be done", they just go ahead and try to do it, and maybe even succeed through sheer grit. You simply have to make a distinction between "impossible" and "highly unlikely."

The GAE suffers from the opposite problem, mind you: everything there is mind over matter, an issue of messaging and marketing, wish hard enough and it will manifest. That kind of approach ignores objective reality altogether, so little wonder it fails so often (*cough* Bidenomics/Green New Deal/etc *cough*).

All this is to say that I don't know what's actually going to happen, because I don't have the numbers yet OR the sufficient feel for the collective sentiment. All I'm saying is that the former actually depend on the latter, a lot, and we ignore that at our peril.
01.04.202518:41
As promised, I put up my analysis of the NYT "we totally ran Ukraine's war, but only the successful bits" piece on Substack, and you can read it there.

Please consider supporting my work at BuyMeACoffee, if you appreciate these takes!
Serbia air defenses shot down an American F-117A Nighthawk on this day in 1999, the first and only time the stealth fighter was lost in combat.
Have a Ghliblified illustration of Serbian villagers dancing on the wreckage.
21.03.202516:57
The F-47 that Trump announced today is vaporware. I am going to stake my reputation to say so, but here goes:

- It will (eventually) be made by Boeing. Which has an absolutely abysmal track record as of late, with the 737 MAX suffering fatal malfunctions, the 787 having issues, and have we forgotten the ill-fated Starliner? You know, the "spaceship" that left two astronauts stranded on the ISS for nine months?

- SecDef Hegseth suggested that the program was getting canceled but the Trump people brought it back, indicating that it was astronomically expensive and unsustainable.

- Last but not least, it has all the hallmarks of a "Star Wars" type bluff, the kind Reagan pulled during the Cold War to cover up the structural issues the West was dealing with (not knowing the Soviets had their own). "Don't mess with us, look how super-powerful we are!"

Trouble is, this isn't 1985. The US industrial base is almost nonexistent and the gap between marketing and reality can't be maintained indefinitely. Washington could get away with a lot of deception back then. Now all it takes is one Houthi missile or drone getting lucky in the Red Sea.

To recap, I know why they're doing this, but I don't think it's going to work.
18.03.202511:33
Two things have bothered me about this whole "sonic weapon" business: The uncharacteristic movement of the crowd, and the fact that anyone daring to doubt the claim got swarmed online.
11.04.202519:46
Trouble is, Putin's restraint so far has absolutely encouraged this behavior — and not just by Estonians, either. Appropriately calibrated violence is a form of communication. If not used in a timely manner, it will require far more violence to get the point across later. Which explains the SMO.
Zelya must think he's very clever, putting China into a Kafkian trap like this.

Except Beijing might just decide that if the West is going to crucify China for "backing Russia" it may as well do so overtly... and off to the races we go.
31.03.202518:37
France effectively banning Marine LePen from running in 2027 is proof that the West does not actually believe in "democracy," whatever it claims.

As Ian Fleming wrote: Once is accident, twice is happenstance, three times is enemy action. Calin Georgiescu in Romania was the first instance. Milorad Dodik in Republika Srpska was the second. Le Pen makes three.

Legitimacy takes a long time to build and mere moments to lose. Those who have the naked force don't feel the need to dress it, but the EU lacks the swords necessary to get away with what can only be termed political exhibitionism.
26.03.202517:34
The "Black Sea ceasefire" or whatever the White House called it is vaporware, intended to create the impression of progress in the peace talks. Kiev claims it is already in effect and is whining that it doesn't apply to Russian missile strikes on ports. Moscow says it might go into effect if the US lifts sanctions on the Russian agricultural export bank. Meaning, it's not in effect.

So what's going on? Simple. Washington needs a quick win, so it's trying for perception management because that's easier than actually doing something. Trump has too much trouble on his hands at home (renegade judges, the ludicrous "Signal-gate", etc) to actually move ahead with dismantling the GAE, even though he really should.

Russia seems to be humoring him but continuing the military operations. The risk here, obviously, is that Moscow might not want to do anything drastic, so as not to upset the "peace process". Meanwhile, Kiev is launching all the drones and missiles it has, in a campaign of terror intended to bolster morale at home. Ukrainian drones are also targeting journalists at the frontline. A couple Oreshniks might put an end to this, but... see above. Niceness kills.
20.03.202518:14
It's fascinating to me how both the USA and Serbia find themselves in a similar situation right now: theoretically in favorable circumstances for a major policy turn for the better, but in practice unable to do so because of internal interference. In the US it's the activist judges and the violent "resistance", in Serbia the "student soviet" protests.

The difference is that Trump and his team have a plan seem pretty willing to carry it out, but are acting with some care and forbearance in order to preserve the system (which their adversaries are happy to burn). No one in Serbia really cares about the system, it's a means to an end, so the current infighting is willing to have it as a casualty. Meanwhile, the golden opportunity is slipping away.

Argh.
15.03.202521:36
Donald Trump just made a mistake that's both serious and stupid. Ordering strikes against Yemen is only going to get their blockade reinstated. They can't be deterred through normal means, and short of a full-on war (for which the USA is not prepared), they can't be defeated.

I get that the Navy is smarting from its humiliation. I get that Trump wants to kick someone around for an easy win, this early in the term, which the Ukraine business not going well. But this isn't going to be it.

This isn't me "cheering" for the Houthis. No doubt some of them would slit my throat in a hot minute, given my ethnicity/religion. But I do have enormous respect for people who out-stubborn even my own and are willing to fight for what they believe in. I guess Trump's about to find out he's not dealing with Democrats anymore.
11.04.202519:42
While Witkoff meets with Putin in St. Petersburg, Estonia has seized a tanker en route to Russia. Yesterday, they banned the canonical Orthodox Church, and two days ago, they approved a law allowing the "Estonian Navy" to sink Russian ships.

Estonia's suicidal behavior cannot be explained by self-interest; it appears to be a timed provocation by proxy. Its leadership seems to genuinely believe that Putin's patience is limitless and that this will continue indefinitely. However, times are changing rapidly.

The only thing that could save Estonia and its six-ship navy from getting vaporized is for Russia and the US to reach some kind of agreement. To be honest, the odds do not seem to favor Estonia's survival.
04.04.202515:46
Will Russia get seduced by the sweet nothings whispered by the Americans into Kirill Dmitriev's ear? Putin's special envoy and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund is getting quite a VIP tour of the US: touring the Capitol, meeting with influential figures in Washington, even getting an interview with the surprisingly non-hostile CNN. And all after that NYT article revealing admitting that the US has always been part of the "kill chain" in Ukraine.

What gives?

It all depends on that the Kremlin's answer is to "why we fight?" Was the SMO launched because the West rejected Moscow's security proposal, thereby triggering a global realignment and the necessity of creating a multipolar world (which is obviously not quite done yet)? Or was it to protect the Donbass republics from a Western client, and the decades of Western perfidy, sanctions and proxy warfare can be waved away with a "trade deal" so that the Russians can once again have Starbucks, McDonald's and Western cheese?

Based on public statements alone, Putin believes the former, Trump the latter. They are seemingly irreconcilable. And yet there's Dmitriev in Washington, which seems to point to Trump being more correct.

Once certain things are set in motion, they have to be seen through to their logical conclusion; if the goal is just, stopping short of it would be a betrayal of one's principles, values, and sacrifices made for them. But hey, that cheese...
31.03.202508:49
A New York Times "investigation" claims that "America was woven into the [Russia-Ukraine] war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood":

"At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations...American and Ukrainian officers planned [Kiev's] counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.
One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.


Obviously, I urge you to read it all, while filtering out propaganda and narrative management.

To us who've followed this conflict from the start, none of this is really new. This is one of those post-hoc admissions the NYT specializes in. Remember the "by the way the CIA totally runs the SBU, but we totally didn't kill Darya Dugina"?

What I'd like to know is, why admit this now? And the obvious answer is, to render any negotiated settlement impossible. The way the NYT reasons, most likely, Trump can't possibly abandon the war now, and even if he tries the Russians won't trust him enough to make any deals.

They're so obsessed with sticking it to the Bad Orange Man, they haven't realized that revealing the true extent of US involvement in the war doesn't help the GAE — and they've bought into their own propaganda so much, they don't realize that Russia is winning, and that therefore they will now own the defeat. I delight in the irony.
24.03.202520:21
On March 24, 1999, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) started carrying out its aerial bombing campaign against the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (Serbia) during the Kosovo War. How this happened in first place? Well, entering Joe Biden.

◾If you thought you knew why Yugoslavia broke up, get ready for 2 hours of shocking facts that will shed a different light on Western intervention in the Balkans.

◾How the western media and governments presented Serbian leaders and fighters as war criminals while funded Bosnian and Albanian terrorist organisations and covered up or downplayed their massacres and ethnic cleansings of Serbian villages.

◾Watch the full documentary: https://youtu.be/waEYQ46gH08

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https://t.me/European_dissident
18.03.202521:35
The Trump-Putin call is significant because it happened. Because it lasted for over two hours. Because there is a possibility of maybe reaching some sort of agreement down the line. I still wouldn’t read too much into it, though.

Trump is bluffing, basically. The US is out of moves against Russia. All it has is leverage over Ukraine, and even that is limited. Junkyard dogs are notoriously difficult to bring to heel, after all.

What’s interesting to me is that the side that has all the leverage is actually being passive here, waiting for the Americans to come with an offer instead of pushing its own terms. Whatever the reality of it, it comes off as a weakness.
15.03.202521:31
If the organizers of today's rally thought they would just intimidate the government into resigning... they failed. A day-long blockade of pretty much the entire city of Belgrade (no buses, many stores shut, no traffic) accomplished... nothing.

There have been claims that the Serbian police used a "sonic cannon" at one point. They deny it. They've been determined all along not to use force against these protesters, even when this could be construed as justified on account of the disruptions. Perhaps because that's the trigger the other side might be waiting for.

That's what I find so perplexing about all this: it's as if the will-to-power is simply missing and the protest-pushers are hoping the government overplays its hand, and vice versa.

Almost as if someone kicked this off in November, and then the brains of the operation got neutralized in the DOGE purges, so the creation is ambling about aimlessly on auto-pilot.
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