TheNebulator
04.05.202513:53
I’ve always known Hitler wanted an alliance with England. Never realized it had been kind of mutual: https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/the-anglo-nazi-global-empire-that
02.05.202512:38
The US is throwing Ukraine under the bus. This is the inescapable conclusion of what Marco Rubio and JD Vance told Fox News yesterday, and what State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters at the Foggy Bottom briefing:
Make no mistake, the US is being unusually blunt with a message to Zelensky: you're done, over, kaputt, we're out.
He needs to surrender while he still can. He won't, but he should.
...we will not be the mediators. That is what I mentioned on Tuesday, and the nature of how this would change is we would not – we certainly are still committed to it and will help and do what we can. But we are not going to fly around the world at the drop of a hat to mediate meetings, that it is now between the two parties, and now – now is the time that they need to present and develop concrete ideas about how this conflict is going to end. It’s going to be up to them.
Make no mistake, the US is being unusually blunt with a message to Zelensky: you're done, over, kaputt, we're out.
He needs to surrender while he still can. He won't, but he should.
24.04.202518:07
Pay less attention to what Trump says and more to what he does (or doesn't do). Yes, I know, the previous post was about his words, but still. He's trying all the rhetorical negotiating tricks of Team Narrative against Russia, the ultimate Team Reality player (often at its own peril). There is a non-zero chance it might work, but it's very slim.
That which cannot go on, will not. And Project Ukraine has just about outlived its usefulness. I don't know precisely how Trump will shape the narrative that will enable him to throw Zelensky in the trash; all I know is that it will happen sooner or later, and that he sure seems like he's trying right now.
That which cannot go on, will not. And Project Ukraine has just about outlived its usefulness. I don't know precisely how Trump will shape the narrative that will enable him to throw Zelensky in the trash; all I know is that it will happen sooner or later, and that he sure seems like he's trying right now.
23.04.202509:39
If this is the same proposal that's making rounds in Western outlets (Telegraph, Axios), then walking away it is, because it's absolute and utter rubbish. It doesn't satisfy ANY of Russia's key objectives.
18.04.202517:54
Rubio's statement about the US "moving on" and Trump's words about the US "taking a pass" on the Russia-Ukraine peace process are being very loosely interpreted in the West. There are seriously people who believe that this means they will stop trying to negotiate a settlement and revert to Biden-era policies of unconditional support to Zelensky.
I am of a rather different opinion: Moving on and taking a pass in this context rather means washing their hands of Biden's policies and letting Ukraine collapse.
Funny, for a nation obsessed with messaging and PR, the Americans are failing to make this clear. This has to be deliberate.
I am of a rather different opinion: Moving on and taking a pass in this context rather means washing their hands of Biden's policies and letting Ukraine collapse.
Funny, for a nation obsessed with messaging and PR, the Americans are failing to make this clear. This has to be deliberate.
11.04.202519:46
Trouble is, Putin's restraint so far has absolutely encouraged this behavior — and not just by Estonians, either. Appropriately calibrated violence is a form of communication. If not used in a timely manner, it will require far more violence to get the point across later. Which explains the SMO.
30.04.202509:57
Armchair Warlord has a very interesting take on Russia's restraint, that I have not considered before: They are denying the Ukrainians their victimhood:
By being surgical, rather than blunt, the Russians are "playing an extremely long game here and setting conditions to build the postwar world they want to see - one which involves a lasting peace with Ukraine and a reconstruction of deep cultural ties," says Warlord.
This certainly explains the way this is being fought. As a Serb who has barely survived the post-WW2 social experiment called "brotherhood and unity", I have deep misgivings about the possibility of brotherly coexistence with an ethnos literally defining itself as anti-you and determined to kill you. But if anyone can pull this off it's the Russians, and the alternative is downright grimdark.
in fighting a clean war, even when many people in the Russian commentariat have howled for blood and not without reason, the Russians are doing something far deeper, and far smarter, than just giving their "fraternal nation" a few dozen extra chances to shape up out of Sovok-boomer sentimentality. They are, in fact, sawing away at one of the core pillars of the constructed identity of Maidan-era Ukraine.
By being surgical, rather than blunt, the Russians are "playing an extremely long game here and setting conditions to build the postwar world they want to see - one which involves a lasting peace with Ukraine and a reconstruction of deep cultural ties," says Warlord.
This certainly explains the way this is being fought. As a Serb who has barely survived the post-WW2 social experiment called "brotherhood and unity", I have deep misgivings about the possibility of brotherly coexistence with an ethnos literally defining itself as anti-you and determined to kill you. But if anyone can pull this off it's the Russians, and the alternative is downright grimdark.
23.04.202518:08
I think Trump just threw Zelya under the bus.
转发自:
DD Geopolitics
23.04.202509:38
🇺🇸💬🇷🇺🇺🇦 Vance claims they have issued a "very fair proposal" to Russia and Ukraine, and they need to either agree to it, or the US will walk away
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🔴 @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising
18.04.202512:52
Russia has once again threatened "consequences" for Western involvement in Ukraine. This time, MFA spokeswoman Maria Zakharova brought up aspiring German Chancellor Friedrich Merz's promise to deliver Taurus missiles to Kiev:
Right, OK. We know about the German involvement because there were those intercepts of the Zoom (or whatever) with the Luftwaffe generals discussing it. We have the NYT confessing that the US has been part of the "kill chain" since basically the beginning, and that the Brits intervened to have certain Ukie generals fired.
What. Has. Russia. DONE. About. Any. Of. This?
This is an unpopular opinion — and my favorite hobbyhorse here — but a lot of this is Moscow's fault. Hello, you concluded that the West can't be trusted so you have to resort to the ultima ratio regum back in 2022. I get that you don't want WW3, nobody does, and thank you very much for this kind of restraint, but this has clearly been understood as weakness and the West keeps escalating.
Yet Russia has done nothing at all whatsoever to any Western country — not the US, not the UK, not Germany, not Poland, anyone — to deter this behavior. Arguably, it doesn't have to; they're doing a tremendous job of self-destructing. But this isn't about inflicting damage, it's about a failure to communicate.
At this point, it would be better to remain ominously silent and keep the enemy guessing — and projecting its worst fears. Take it as friendly advice, gratis.
"These missiles cannot be operated without involvement from the Bundeswehr, so any launches towards critical infrastructure, including the Crimean Bridge, will be considered direct participation in the conflict. With ensuing consequences for Germany."
Right, OK. We know about the German involvement because there were those intercepts of the Zoom (or whatever) with the Luftwaffe generals discussing it. We have the NYT confessing that the US has been part of the "kill chain" since basically the beginning, and that the Brits intervened to have certain Ukie generals fired.
What. Has. Russia. DONE. About. Any. Of. This?
This is an unpopular opinion — and my favorite hobbyhorse here — but a lot of this is Moscow's fault. Hello, you concluded that the West can't be trusted so you have to resort to the ultima ratio regum back in 2022. I get that you don't want WW3, nobody does, and thank you very much for this kind of restraint, but this has clearly been understood as weakness and the West keeps escalating.
Yet Russia has done nothing at all whatsoever to any Western country — not the US, not the UK, not Germany, not Poland, anyone — to deter this behavior. Arguably, it doesn't have to; they're doing a tremendous job of self-destructing. But this isn't about inflicting damage, it's about a failure to communicate.
At this point, it would be better to remain ominously silent and keep the enemy guessing — and projecting its worst fears. Take it as friendly advice, gratis.
11.04.202519:42
While Witkoff meets with Putin in St. Petersburg, Estonia has seized a tanker en route to Russia. Yesterday, they banned the canonical Orthodox Church, and two days ago, they approved a law allowing the "Estonian Navy" to sink Russian ships.
Estonia's suicidal behavior cannot be explained by self-interest; it appears to be a timed provocation by proxy. Its leadership seems to genuinely believe that Putin's patience is limitless and that this will continue indefinitely. However, times are changing rapidly.
The only thing that could save Estonia and its six-ship navy from getting vaporized is for Russia and the US to reach some kind of agreement. To be honest, the odds do not seem to favor Estonia's survival.
Estonia's suicidal behavior cannot be explained by self-interest; it appears to be a timed provocation by proxy. Its leadership seems to genuinely believe that Putin's patience is limitless and that this will continue indefinitely. However, times are changing rapidly.
The only thing that could save Estonia and its six-ship navy from getting vaporized is for Russia and the US to reach some kind of agreement. To be honest, the odds do not seem to favor Estonia's survival.
02.05.202518:02
Declaring AfD a "right-wing extremist" organization is but a step away from banning them outright, and nothing says "you can't vote your way out of this" harder than setting up a Merz-Scholz coalition to prevent any AfD impact on government.
The weirdest thing is that the Trump administration has repeatedly warned against this — first via Vance, then via diplomats (UN vote on cooperation with the Council of Europe) and now Marco Rubio is tweeting "Germany should reverse course."
To which the offended liversausages groveling before Zelensky will probably puff up and say "zees is unacceptable!" like Boris Pistorius did in Munich. Because they no longer understand their place in the "rules-based order."
How... convenient that the US already has bases and troops in Germany, don't you think?
The weirdest thing is that the Trump administration has repeatedly warned against this — first via Vance, then via diplomats (UN vote on cooperation with the Council of Europe) and now Marco Rubio is tweeting "Germany should reverse course."
To which the offended liversausages groveling before Zelensky will probably puff up and say "zees is unacceptable!" like Boris Pistorius did in Munich. Because they no longer understand their place in the "rules-based order."
How... convenient that the US already has bases and troops in Germany, don't you think?
29.04.202517:16
Russia won't make a bad peace with Ukraine, and here's why — that's the title of my long(er)-form piece on Substack that I promised you a little while back.
I feel very confident in this prediction, but I have to admit my confidence is not at 100%. Mostly because the Russians have repeatedly surprised (and occasionally disappointed) me over the years, so I can't really consider myself a "Russia-whisperer."
For the records, I still think the Kremlin is making a major mistake by not violently deterring Ukrainian terrorism. Notice, for example, that graphically assassinating that treacherous helicopter pilot in Spain has had a very salutary effect since.
I feel very confident in this prediction, but I have to admit my confidence is not at 100%. Mostly because the Russians have repeatedly surprised (and occasionally disappointed) me over the years, so I can't really consider myself a "Russia-whisperer."
For the records, I still think the Kremlin is making a major mistake by not violently deterring Ukrainian terrorism. Notice, for example, that graphically assassinating that treacherous helicopter pilot in Spain has had a very salutary effect since.
转发自:
Donald J. Trump
23.04.202518:08
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is boasting on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that, “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There’s nothing to talk about here.” This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama, and is not even a point of discussion. Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired? The area also houses, for many years before “the Obama handover,” major Russian submarine bases. It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but have much to do with wanting to save, on average, five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, who are dying for no reason whatsoever. The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the “killing field,” and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, GET IT DONE. I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS, that would have never started if I were President!
22.04.202518:44
Russia's supposed offer to settle for US recognition of Crimea and freezing the current frontlines — as claimed by Financial Times — is most likely wishful thinking on part of anonymous sources.
I can't rule out the possibility of Moscow snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (many such cases!) but this goes so much against everything I've heard and seen since December 2021 that it just seems highly unlikely.
I can't rule out the possibility of Moscow snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (many such cases!) but this goes so much against everything I've heard and seen since December 2021 that it just seems highly unlikely.
16.04.202517:33
Ukrainian intelligence (SBU) appears to have been directly involved in recruiting Nikita Casap (a Wisconsin, USA resident of presumably Ukrainian extraction) to kill Trump in a way Russia would be blamed for it.
The SBU has worked hand-in-glove with the CIA for at least a decade, and likely longer.
I understand why Washington's hasn't done anything about this yet (though it ought to be really high on Tulsi Gabbard's list!) but why Russia hasn't kinzhal'd their HQ is beyond me at this point.
The SBU has worked hand-in-glove with the CIA for at least a decade, and likely longer.
I understand why Washington's hasn't done anything about this yet (though it ought to be really high on Tulsi Gabbard's list!) but why Russia hasn't kinzhal'd their HQ is beyond me at this point.
10.04.202518:47
Trump "changing his mind" about the tariffs for 90 days (except for China!) makes no difference here. I'm already reading cope takes that he either "caved" (mainly from Democrats and multipolar bros) or flawlessly executed some master plan (a preference of Republicans for whom he can do no wrong).
Everyone thinks they know everything and bases conclusions solely on public statements (or bad interpretations thereof), while no one seems to have the patience to assess the impact of actions. Precisely what I was talking about in the previous post: Marketing over matter, and analysis thereof.
Everyone thinks they know everything and bases conclusions solely on public statements (or bad interpretations thereof), while no one seems to have the patience to assess the impact of actions. Precisely what I was talking about in the previous post: Marketing over matter, and analysis thereof.
02.05.202517:58
First Romania, then France, now Germany: EUropoors have embraced lawfare in order to defend their stranglehold on power against the populists. It doesn't matter whether you like what the populists are advocating; that ought to be decided by ballot, not by bullet. Or bogus lawsuits.
26.04.202515:24
Kursk has been completely liberated. Ukraine’s invasion is no more. 80,000 casualties later, Zelensky has nothing to show for it. Not to mention the irreplaceable Western tech.
If that was Kiev’s version of the “battle of the Bulge,” we’re likely to see a replay of the bunker meme scene in a couple months or so.
Of course, there is still the possibility of ending this peacefully. But Trump’s proposal is nonsense and Zelensky is unwilling to entertain it anyway. So the fighting will continue until someone wins.
If that was Kiev’s version of the “battle of the Bulge,” we’re likely to see a replay of the bunker meme scene in a couple months or so.
Of course, there is still the possibility of ending this peacefully. But Trump’s proposal is nonsense and Zelensky is unwilling to entertain it anyway. So the fighting will continue until someone wins.
23.04.202510:50
Politico paints a fascinating picture of Europe that is entirely dependent on America (or the GAE?) in military matters. However self-serving, the story admits an uncomfortable truth: not only is the entire military infrastructure of the continent (well, its Western half) built around the assumption of American hegemony and US "cavalry" riding to the rescue, the Euros lack even the most basic military capabilities should the Americans actually withdraw.
No tank trailers, fuel tankers, heavy transport planes, even ramps for rail loading of flatbed cars for heavies. No intel, or cyber capabilities. Nothing. The Euros are basically hangers-on at best, dead weight at worst, fit only to man the "defense" line until the Americans arrive.
Set aside the fevered dream of a "Russian invasion" (the April 1 joke in which "Putin" tells the Germans they aren't worth the expense of occupation comes to mind). This is an admission that the supposedly wealthy mega-state with something like 400 million people is militarily useless.
I believe this is by design, that the US has for decades nurtured a learned helplessness and path dependency in order to maintain hegemony, but isn't even capable of articulating as to why anymore. Nor are the EUrocrats able to conceive of an actual independent military posture, let alone achieve it with their existing industrial base and economic posture. Given time and ingenuity, perhaps — but both of those are in short supply at the moment.
Keep this in mind if and when the US "walks away" from the GAE.
No tank trailers, fuel tankers, heavy transport planes, even ramps for rail loading of flatbed cars for heavies. No intel, or cyber capabilities. Nothing. The Euros are basically hangers-on at best, dead weight at worst, fit only to man the "defense" line until the Americans arrive.
Set aside the fevered dream of a "Russian invasion" (the April 1 joke in which "Putin" tells the Germans they aren't worth the expense of occupation comes to mind). This is an admission that the supposedly wealthy mega-state with something like 400 million people is militarily useless.
I believe this is by design, that the US has for decades nurtured a learned helplessness and path dependency in order to maintain hegemony, but isn't even capable of articulating as to why anymore. Nor are the EUrocrats able to conceive of an actual independent military posture, let alone achieve it with their existing industrial base and economic posture. Given time and ingenuity, perhaps — but both of those are in short supply at the moment.
Keep this in mind if and when the US "walks away" from the GAE.
22.04.202515:30
Marco Rubio has just announced a truly massive purge at the State Department, getting rid of 132 "fiefs" run by woke Deep State types for their own profit and political gain as opposed to US interests. Or rather, the people involved thought THEY dictated US interests and policy, as opposed to the elected government.
My favorite cut in the process of draining the "bloated, bureaucratic swamp" has to be the Office of Global Criminal Justice, founded by Bill Clinton in 1997 to be a sinecure for the lawfare agents who set up the atrocity known as the ICTY (the Yugoslavia "war crimes" tribunal), a kangaroo court intended to demonize the Serbs and create a pretext for the Globalist American Empire to intervene anytime, anywhere, against anyone for "human rights."
Getting rid of them isn't exactly restitution for decades of evil perpetrated by these people, but at least going forward it will stop. Truly an Easter miracle.
My favorite cut in the process of draining the "bloated, bureaucratic swamp" has to be the Office of Global Criminal Justice, founded by Bill Clinton in 1997 to be a sinecure for the lawfare agents who set up the atrocity known as the ICTY (the Yugoslavia "war crimes" tribunal), a kangaroo court intended to demonize the Serbs and create a pretext for the Globalist American Empire to intervene anytime, anywhere, against anyone for "human rights."
Getting rid of them isn't exactly restitution for decades of evil perpetrated by these people, but at least going forward it will stop. Truly an Easter miracle.
15.04.202515:39
EU's threat to "Western Balkans" (i.e. shards of Yugoslavia) aspirants not to dare go to Moscow for the Victory Day parade might have seemed like a flex to the Balts and other chihuahuas at first, but it's merely cementing the perception (based on reality) that Russia is fighting against a modern-day iteration of the Third Reich.
What was that Admiral Nelson used to say about interrupting your enemy when he's making a mistake?
What was that Admiral Nelson used to say about interrupting your enemy when he's making a mistake?
09.04.202519:36
Trump's tariffs have triggered a lot of people, it seems. There's a legion of commentators, some of whom I greatly respect, who are practically fulminating about how the US is doomed, incapable of actually reindustrializing, and how this will ruin the GAE and the dollar and ensure a century of Chinese ascendance.
Um, isn't that what you want? What's the problem, then?
Unless you fear that Trump is both crazy like a fox and has the devil's own luck, so he might just pull this off, and the whole paradigm of inevitable GAE decline and fall is going to crumble on the brink of fulfillment?
My big problem with quantitative analysis is that it doesn't account for the moral/spiritual/psychological factors, because they're not really quantifiable. If someone is determined enough, or even too stupid to realize something "can't be done", they just go ahead and try to do it, and maybe even succeed through sheer grit. You simply have to make a distinction between "impossible" and "highly unlikely."
The GAE suffers from the opposite problem, mind you: everything there is mind over matter, an issue of messaging and marketing, wish hard enough and it will manifest. That kind of approach ignores objective reality altogether, so little wonder it fails so often (*cough* Bidenomics/Green New Deal/etc *cough*).
All this is to say that I don't know what's actually going to happen, because I don't have the numbers yet OR the sufficient feel for the collective sentiment. All I'm saying is that the former actually depend on the latter, a lot, and we ignore that at our peril.
Um, isn't that what you want? What's the problem, then?
Unless you fear that Trump is both crazy like a fox and has the devil's own luck, so he might just pull this off, and the whole paradigm of inevitable GAE decline and fall is going to crumble on the brink of fulfillment?
My big problem with quantitative analysis is that it doesn't account for the moral/spiritual/psychological factors, because they're not really quantifiable. If someone is determined enough, or even too stupid to realize something "can't be done", they just go ahead and try to do it, and maybe even succeed through sheer grit. You simply have to make a distinction between "impossible" and "highly unlikely."
The GAE suffers from the opposite problem, mind you: everything there is mind over matter, an issue of messaging and marketing, wish hard enough and it will manifest. That kind of approach ignores objective reality altogether, so little wonder it fails so often (*cough* Bidenomics/Green New Deal/etc *cough*).
All this is to say that I don't know what's actually going to happen, because I don't have the numbers yet OR the sufficient feel for the collective sentiment. All I'm saying is that the former actually depend on the latter, a lot, and we ignore that at our peril.
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