Old Glory Vortex
25.04.202514:01
🌍 Dozen US States Sue to Block Trump’s Tariffs, Calling Them Unlawful
A dozen US states have joined together on a lawsuit aiming to block President Donald Trump's spate of tariffs that have upended global trade.
The suit, which is led by New York's governor and attorney general, argues that the president lacked the authority to impose the levies. It notes such tariffs must be approved by the US Congress.
Twelve states joined the lawsuit, which was filed with the United States Court of International Trade.
⚖️ White House Fires Back
The White House accused New York Attorney General Letitia James of "prioritizing a witch hunt against President Trump over protecting the safety and wellbeing of their constituents."
White House spokesman Kush Desai added that the "administration remains committed to using its full legal authority to confront the distinct national emergencies our country is currently facing—both the scourge of illegal migration and fentanyl flows across our border and the exploding annual U.S. goods trade deficit."
📜 Legal Battle Over Presidential Powers
The lawsuit states that tariffs must be approved by Congress and questioned Trump invoking a 1970s law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to enact the levies.
"By claiming the authority to impose immense and ever-changing tariffs on whatever goods entering the United States he chooses, for whatever reason he finds convenient to declare an emergency, the President has upended the constitutional order and brought chaos to the American economy," the lawsuit states.
Trump invoked the IEEPA as the basis for several of his tariffs against China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries.
🛑 Unprecedented Use of Emergency Powers?
A president can use the law "to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States," if he has first declared a national emergency.
The lawsuit argues that the law does not actually grant Trump the power he claims to derive from it. The act has never been used to issue tariffs by any president, congressional research shows.
⚡️ More Legal Challenges
Last week, the state of California filed its own lawsuit against the Trump administration over tariffs. That lawsuit also argues that Trump lacks the power under the IEEPA to impose these tariffs. Several other lawsuits have similarly challenged Trump's authority using that law for the levies.
💥 Global Trade in Turmoil
Trump has implemented tariffs on global trading partners in a stated effort to correct what he believes is a trade deficit between the US and other nations.
On 2 April, in an event billed as "Liberation Day," Trump shook the global economy by announcing "reciprocal" tariffs on nations across the world. A few days later amid a market backlash, he announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs and lowered the rate to 10% for most countries.
That pause didn't extend to China, which Trump said had a "lack of respect" and was retaliating. Instead, the US issued a 145% tariff on goods imported from China, which has led to a trade standoff and rattled global markets.
On Wednesday, Trump said he hoped to come to a deal with China soon and noted the 145% tariff was "very high."
The White House has also imposed 25% tariffs on certain goods from its neighbours, Mexico and Canada.
#Trump #Tariffs
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A dozen US states have joined together on a lawsuit aiming to block President Donald Trump's spate of tariffs that have upended global trade.
The suit, which is led by New York's governor and attorney general, argues that the president lacked the authority to impose the levies. It notes such tariffs must be approved by the US Congress.
Twelve states joined the lawsuit, which was filed with the United States Court of International Trade.
⚖️ White House Fires Back
The White House accused New York Attorney General Letitia James of "prioritizing a witch hunt against President Trump over protecting the safety and wellbeing of their constituents."
White House spokesman Kush Desai added that the "administration remains committed to using its full legal authority to confront the distinct national emergencies our country is currently facing—both the scourge of illegal migration and fentanyl flows across our border and the exploding annual U.S. goods trade deficit."
📜 Legal Battle Over Presidential Powers
The lawsuit states that tariffs must be approved by Congress and questioned Trump invoking a 1970s law called the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to enact the levies.
"By claiming the authority to impose immense and ever-changing tariffs on whatever goods entering the United States he chooses, for whatever reason he finds convenient to declare an emergency, the President has upended the constitutional order and brought chaos to the American economy," the lawsuit states.
Trump invoked the IEEPA as the basis for several of his tariffs against China, Mexico, Canada, and other countries.
🛑 Unprecedented Use of Emergency Powers?
A president can use the law "to deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States," if he has first declared a national emergency.
The lawsuit argues that the law does not actually grant Trump the power he claims to derive from it. The act has never been used to issue tariffs by any president, congressional research shows.
⚡️ More Legal Challenges
Last week, the state of California filed its own lawsuit against the Trump administration over tariffs. That lawsuit also argues that Trump lacks the power under the IEEPA to impose these tariffs. Several other lawsuits have similarly challenged Trump's authority using that law for the levies.
💥 Global Trade in Turmoil
Trump has implemented tariffs on global trading partners in a stated effort to correct what he believes is a trade deficit between the US and other nations.
On 2 April, in an event billed as "Liberation Day," Trump shook the global economy by announcing "reciprocal" tariffs on nations across the world. A few days later amid a market backlash, he announced a 90-day pause on the tariffs and lowered the rate to 10% for most countries.
That pause didn't extend to China, which Trump said had a "lack of respect" and was retaliating. Instead, the US issued a 145% tariff on goods imported from China, which has led to a trade standoff and rattled global markets.
On Wednesday, Trump said he hoped to come to a deal with China soon and noted the 145% tariff was "very high."
The White House has also imposed 25% tariffs on certain goods from its neighbours, Mexico and Canada.
#Trump #Tariffs
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24.04.202519:01
China on Thursday said that there were no ongoing discussions with the U.S. on tariffs, despite indications from the White House this week that there would be some easing in tensions with Beijing.
Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He added that “all sayings” regarding progress on bilateral talks should be dismissed.
He said.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week indicated that there might be an easing in tensions with China. The White House earlier this month added 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with duties of its own and increased restrictions on critical minerals exports to the U.S.
The Commerce Ministry’s comments echoed those of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, who said on Thursday afternoon that there were no ongoing talks, according to state media.
Both spokespersons held to the official line that China would be willing to talk to the U.S. subject to Beijing being treated as an equal.
#Tariffs #China #Trade
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“At present there are absolutely no negotiations on the economy and trade between China and the U.S.,”
Ministry of Commerce spokesperson He Yadong told reporters in Mandarin, translated by CNBC. He added that “all sayings” regarding progress on bilateral talks should be dismissed.
“If the U.S. really wants to resolve the problem ... it should cancel all the unilateral measures on China,”
He said.
U.S. President Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent this week indicated that there might be an easing in tensions with China. The White House earlier this month added 145% tariffs on Chinese goods, to which Beijing responded with duties of its own and increased restrictions on critical minerals exports to the U.S.
The Commerce Ministry’s comments echoed those of Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun, who said on Thursday afternoon that there were no ongoing talks, according to state media.
Both spokespersons held to the official line that China would be willing to talk to the U.S. subject to Beijing being treated as an equal.
#Tariffs #China #Trade
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23.04.202523:45
The Trump administration’s battle with Harvard University has helped to unite the previously divided campus, a Harvard employee told CNN. 🏛️🤝
Harvard President Alan Garber rejected White House demands last week to make key policy changes, making the Ivy League school the first elite US university to forcefully push back. ❌📜
the Harvard employee, who declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly, told CNN. 🗣️🔒
Harvard found itself, along with other higher education institutions, embroiled in controversy over antisemitism on campus and how its leaders have handled it. 🕍📚
Harvard hired Ballard Partners, a lobbying firm with deep ties to President Donald Trump, in January as it prepared for scrutiny from the incoming Trump administration, according to federal lobbying disclosures. 📄👥 Ballard has deep ties to Trump and previously employed White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Attorney General Pam Bondi. 🏛️
Since Trump’s re-entry into the White House, his administration has said it would freeze billions in federal funding to Harvard 💵❄️ and threatened to rescind the university’s tax-exempt status and take away its ability to host international students. 🧾🚫🌐
the Harvard employee said. ⚠️🎓
The standoff with the Trump administration has thrust a “mild-mannered” Garber and publicity-shy Harvard into a confrontation with the White House. 🧑⚖️🏛️⚔️
the employee said.
#Harvard #Trump #DNA
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Harvard President Alan Garber rejected White House demands last week to make key policy changes, making the Ivy League school the first elite US university to forcefully push back. ❌📜
“Garber’s letter sent a jolt of energy through the campus ⚡. The Trump administration’s demands were so far beyond the pale. Nothing has united Harvard’s deeply fractured campus more,”
the Harvard employee, who declined to be named because they were not authorized to speak publicly, told CNN. 🗣️🔒
Harvard found itself, along with other higher education institutions, embroiled in controversy over antisemitism on campus and how its leaders have handled it. 🕍📚
Harvard hired Ballard Partners, a lobbying firm with deep ties to President Donald Trump, in January as it prepared for scrutiny from the incoming Trump administration, according to federal lobbying disclosures. 📄👥 Ballard has deep ties to Trump and previously employed White House chief of staff Susie Wiles and Attorney General Pam Bondi. 🏛️
Since Trump’s re-entry into the White House, his administration has said it would freeze billions in federal funding to Harvard 💵❄️ and threatened to rescind the university’s tax-exempt status and take away its ability to host international students. 🧾🚫🌐
“There is real concern the administration will go after international students and what this means for the safety of students,”
the Harvard employee said. ⚠️🎓
The standoff with the Trump administration has thrust a “mild-mannered” Garber and publicity-shy Harvard into a confrontation with the White House. 🧑⚖️🏛️⚔️
“This was not part of a plan to captain the resistance to the Trump administration. It’s simply not in the DNA of the university. Harvard did not seek out this confrontation but now Harvard will have to see it through,”
the employee said.
“Every university president is watching because they know if Harvard falls, they’re next.” ⏳🎯
#Harvard #Trump #DNA
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23.04.202518:05
US headed towards 1970s-style inflation nightmare
Tariffs, the Fed and America’s crumbling reserve currency – the economic volatility is painting a gloomy fiscal picture that will result in a recessionary slowdown, according to one expert.
Forbes Media Chairman and editor-in-chief Steve Forbes said on "Varney & Co." Monday.
he expanded,
Wall Street’s top indexes each lost more than 1% and the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low on Monday, Reuters reported, as President Donald Trump’s public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues and markets battle global trade and tariff tensions.
#Tariffs #inflation #markets #economy
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Tariffs, the Fed and America’s crumbling reserve currency – the economic volatility is painting a gloomy fiscal picture that will result in a recessionary slowdown, according to one expert.
"The dollar is weakening, and that always leads to future inflation,"
Forbes Media Chairman and editor-in-chief Steve Forbes said on "Varney & Co." Monday.
"Since 2023, gold's gone from $1,800 to $3,400 an ounce. That's a sure sign we're going to have a weak dollar ahead,"
he expanded,
"which means ultimately turbulence and higher prices in the marketplace. Just look at the 1970s, and we can see where that leads unless something is done about it now. But I don't see any sign that the authorities have any idea, constructively, of what to do, sadly."
Wall Street’s top indexes each lost more than 1% and the U.S. dollar fell to a three-year low on Monday, Reuters reported, as President Donald Trump’s public criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell continues and markets battle global trade and tariff tensions.
#Tariffs #inflation #markets #economy
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22.04.202521:59
Stocks fell again on Monday as President Donald Trump ramped up his attacks on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, raising questions about the central bank's independence, while traders received few signs of progress on global trade talks.
#Trump #markets #Fed
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#Trump #markets #Fed
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22.04.202514:00
Drones pose increasing risk to airliners near major US airports
A commercial airliner was on final approach to San Francisco’s international airport in November when the crew spotted a drone outside the cockpit window. By then it was too late “to take evasive action,” the pilots reported, and the quadcopter passed by their windshield, not 300 feet away.
A month earlier, a jetliner was flying at an altitude of 4,000 feet near Miami’s international airport when its pilots reported a “close encounter” with a drone. In August, a drone came within 50 feet of clipping the left wing of a passenger jet as it departed Newark International Airport.
The incidents were all classified as “near midair collisions” — any one of which could have had catastrophic consequences, according to aviation safety experts. They were also not isolated encounters.
An Associated Press analysis of an aviation safety database reveals that drones last year accounted for nearly two-thirds of reported near midair collisions involving commercial passenger planes taking off and landing at the country’s top 30 busiest airports. That was the highest percentage of such near misses since 2020, when air traffic dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The first reports of near misses involving drones were logged in 2014, the AP found. The number of such encounters spiked the following year. Over the last decade, drones accounted for 51% — 122 of 240 — of reported near misses, according to AP’s analysis.
#drones #Airlines
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A commercial airliner was on final approach to San Francisco’s international airport in November when the crew spotted a drone outside the cockpit window. By then it was too late “to take evasive action,” the pilots reported, and the quadcopter passed by their windshield, not 300 feet away.
A month earlier, a jetliner was flying at an altitude of 4,000 feet near Miami’s international airport when its pilots reported a “close encounter” with a drone. In August, a drone came within 50 feet of clipping the left wing of a passenger jet as it departed Newark International Airport.
The incidents were all classified as “near midair collisions” — any one of which could have had catastrophic consequences, according to aviation safety experts. They were also not isolated encounters.
An Associated Press analysis of an aviation safety database reveals that drones last year accounted for nearly two-thirds of reported near midair collisions involving commercial passenger planes taking off and landing at the country’s top 30 busiest airports. That was the highest percentage of such near misses since 2020, when air traffic dropped during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The first reports of near misses involving drones were logged in 2014, the AP found. The number of such encounters spiked the following year. Over the last decade, drones accounted for 51% — 122 of 240 — of reported near misses, according to AP’s analysis.
#drones #Airlines
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25.04.202501:01
President Donald Trump has big ambitions for the United States in the world. 🧠
Aside from his focus on tariffs and the immigration, Trump seems to have expansion on his mind as he looks at erasing the border between Canada and the U.S., and expanding territorial lines north to Greenland.
While Trump has so far maintained his popularity with the Republican base in Utah, they don’t seem to have his same vision on changing the lines on the world map, according to the latest polling from the Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah, conducted by HarrisX.
How do Utahns feel about U.S. expansion to Canada?
Trump has been candid about his dreams of erasing the line between the U.S. and Canada.
Four days after his inauguration into his second term in the White House, he said,
His sales pitch to the Canadians was simple:
Trump said at the time during a briefing for Hurricane Helene in North Carolina. Trump listed other benefits like better health coverage for Americans and combined military defense.
Back in December, Trump went so far as to call former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau the “governor ... of the Great State of Canada” in a Truth Social post. He hasn’t leveled the same insult at newly sworn in Prime Minister Mark Carney.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt maintained the president is firm on his position of Canada “becoming the 51st state” at a press conference earlier this month.
The cracks Trump’s position has cause in the historic alliance between the two neighbors is evident. Carney recently said his country has to forge a new path forward.
he said.
Former U.S. ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake recently told the Deseret News that it’s important to be aligned with American allies and criticized the language used by the Trump White House.
he added.
#Trump #Poll #Utah #Canada #Greenland
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Aside from his focus on tariffs and the immigration, Trump seems to have expansion on his mind as he looks at erasing the border between Canada and the U.S., and expanding territorial lines north to Greenland.
While Trump has so far maintained his popularity with the Republican base in Utah, they don’t seem to have his same vision on changing the lines on the world map, according to the latest polling from the Deseret News and the Hinckley Institute of Politics at the University of Utah, conducted by HarrisX.
How do Utahns feel about U.S. expansion to Canada?
Trump has been candid about his dreams of erasing the line between the U.S. and Canada.
Four days after his inauguration into his second term in the White House, he said,
“I would love to see Canada be the 51st state.”
His sales pitch to the Canadians was simple:
“The Canadian citizens, if that happened, would get a very big tax cut — a tremendous tax cut,”
Trump said at the time during a briefing for Hurricane Helene in North Carolina. Trump listed other benefits like better health coverage for Americans and combined military defense.
Back in December, Trump went so far as to call former Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau the “governor ... of the Great State of Canada” in a Truth Social post. He hasn’t leveled the same insult at newly sworn in Prime Minister Mark Carney.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt maintained the president is firm on his position of Canada “becoming the 51st state” at a press conference earlier this month.
The cracks Trump’s position has cause in the historic alliance between the two neighbors is evident. Carney recently said his country has to forge a new path forward.
“There is no going back. We in Canada will have to build a new relationship with the United States,”
he said.
Former U.S. ambassador to Turkey Jeff Flake recently told the Deseret News that it’s important to be aligned with American allies and criticized the language used by the Trump White House.
“Canadians love Americans, we love Canadians — we’ll work it out,”
he added.
“But some of the rhetoric is just unnecessary — the 51st state and things like that.”
#Trump #Poll #Utah #Canada #Greenland
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24.04.202517:03
❄️🏡 The number of Canadian 'snowbirds' planning to sell their second homes in sunny Florida and Arizona has surged this spring, with many of them put off by the sudden chill that has blanketed relations between their homeland and the US.
📉 Real estate agents say they are seeing more Canadians cashing out, further lowering property prices in warm-weather states that have long attracted retirees and tourists from snowy Canada.
💰 Canadians spent close to $6 billion on US real estate from April 2023 to March 2024 – making up 13 percent of all foreign property transactions – more than any other nationality, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
🌴 Nearly half of the homes purchased by Canadians were for vacation purposes, with Florida, Arizona and Hawaii ranking as the top markets.
🏠 Last week, Tracy and Dale McMullen sold their vacation home in Buckeye, Arizona, a property they owned for five years.
🇨🇦 The Alberta residents, who usually spend four to five months in Arizona a year, said they are not planning to come back.
said Dale, referring to US President Donald Trump, who was inaugurated for the second time in January.
😠 Canadians are feeling stung by the actions and words of the Trump administration, which has imposed steep trade tariffs on its northern neighbor, threatening Canada's export-dependent economy.
#Trump #economy #Canada
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📉 Real estate agents say they are seeing more Canadians cashing out, further lowering property prices in warm-weather states that have long attracted retirees and tourists from snowy Canada.
💰 Canadians spent close to $6 billion on US real estate from April 2023 to March 2024 – making up 13 percent of all foreign property transactions – more than any other nationality, according to data from the National Association of Realtors.
🌴 Nearly half of the homes purchased by Canadians were for vacation purposes, with Florida, Arizona and Hawaii ranking as the top markets.
🏠 Last week, Tracy and Dale McMullen sold their vacation home in Buckeye, Arizona, a property they owned for five years.
🇨🇦 The Alberta residents, who usually spend four to five months in Arizona a year, said they are not planning to come back.
‘We decided to sell the property after the current POTUS took office,’
said Dale, referring to US President Donald Trump, who was inaugurated for the second time in January.
😠 Canadians are feeling stung by the actions and words of the Trump administration, which has imposed steep trade tariffs on its northern neighbor, threatening Canada's export-dependent economy.
#Trump #economy #Canada
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23.04.202522:10
A Russian Crimea could cut off American and European access to Central Asia, while benefiting China.
🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
If China stands to benefit the most from a Russian Crimea then NATO members Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have most to lose. Control of Crimea would greatly enhance Russian regional posture relative to Turkey and allow it to project its influence into the Eastern Mediterranean. The development and operation of natural gas reserves in the western Black Sea by the three NATO members would be subject to Russian disruption and harassment under these conditions. Turkish designs for trade routes connecting it to the Turkic republics of Central Asia will be subjected to Russian control of Caucasus and Black Sea.
American acquiescence of Russian control of Crimea—building on that of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Luhansk, and Donetsk—renders the entire region surrounding the Black Sea from Caucasus to Eastern Mediterranean less secure and settled. Such a beggared peace would sow seeds of generational conflict and justifiably be castigated for decades to follow.
President Trump and Secretary Rubio have both stated that in the absence of progress toward peace the United States will move on. The adage that a bad deal being is worse than no deal is particularly apt in the case of Ukraine. The worthy American effort to end the killing has been hampered by a flawed strategy that undermines rather than optimizes American leverage in negotiating a lasting truce. American failure to assign Russia as the aggressor and exclude Ukraine and Europe from collective peace negotiations shortchanged its leverage.
Bewilderingly, the United States, while not articulating any red-lines of its own, has been willing to entertain Russia’s. American hubris chasing a red herring of breaching the China-Russia “no-limits partnership” would do well not to let Russia drive a wedge between the U.S. and Europe.
Early American maneuvers for Ukraine peace have been perplexing at best and at worst extraordinarily self-harming to American interests and standing versus both Russia and China. It is not too late to correct the course in the long-standing American tradition of doing the right thing after exhausting all other options.
T \he Paris talks with European and Ukrainian partners present a timely opportunity for the United States to reassess and redirect its peace efforts. The United States, along with its Transatlantic partners, would do well to develop a shared understanding of the necessary territorial and regional issues to address and execute a sustainable truce. A shared Transatlantic commitment to a free and open Black Sea should be foremost among them.
Any concessions that exacerbate regional security and stability disadvantaging American and European interests versus that of Russia and China should be non-negotiable. Consequently, a Russian Crimea is a non-starter since it will result in a direct loss of American and European interests and standing across Eurasia and Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, it may set the stage for a bloodier regional conflict in the future. There is a better way to end the war while we still hold the stronger hand—let’s not fritter away American greatness.
#Russia #Crimea #China
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🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
If China stands to benefit the most from a Russian Crimea then NATO members Turkey, Romania and Bulgaria have most to lose. Control of Crimea would greatly enhance Russian regional posture relative to Turkey and allow it to project its influence into the Eastern Mediterranean. The development and operation of natural gas reserves in the western Black Sea by the three NATO members would be subject to Russian disruption and harassment under these conditions. Turkish designs for trade routes connecting it to the Turkic republics of Central Asia will be subjected to Russian control of Caucasus and Black Sea.
American acquiescence of Russian control of Crimea—building on that of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Luhansk, and Donetsk—renders the entire region surrounding the Black Sea from Caucasus to Eastern Mediterranean less secure and settled. Such a beggared peace would sow seeds of generational conflict and justifiably be castigated for decades to follow.
President Trump and Secretary Rubio have both stated that in the absence of progress toward peace the United States will move on. The adage that a bad deal being is worse than no deal is particularly apt in the case of Ukraine. The worthy American effort to end the killing has been hampered by a flawed strategy that undermines rather than optimizes American leverage in negotiating a lasting truce. American failure to assign Russia as the aggressor and exclude Ukraine and Europe from collective peace negotiations shortchanged its leverage.
Bewilderingly, the United States, while not articulating any red-lines of its own, has been willing to entertain Russia’s. American hubris chasing a red herring of breaching the China-Russia “no-limits partnership” would do well not to let Russia drive a wedge between the U.S. and Europe.
Early American maneuvers for Ukraine peace have been perplexing at best and at worst extraordinarily self-harming to American interests and standing versus both Russia and China. It is not too late to correct the course in the long-standing American tradition of doing the right thing after exhausting all other options.
T \he Paris talks with European and Ukrainian partners present a timely opportunity for the United States to reassess and redirect its peace efforts. The United States, along with its Transatlantic partners, would do well to develop a shared understanding of the necessary territorial and regional issues to address and execute a sustainable truce. A shared Transatlantic commitment to a free and open Black Sea should be foremost among them.
Any concessions that exacerbate regional security and stability disadvantaging American and European interests versus that of Russia and China should be non-negotiable. Consequently, a Russian Crimea is a non-starter since it will result in a direct loss of American and European interests and standing across Eurasia and Eastern Mediterranean. Moreover, it may set the stage for a bloodier regional conflict in the future. There is a better way to end the war while we still hold the stronger hand—let’s not fritter away American greatness.
#Russia #Crimea #China
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23.04.202515:13
The odds of a tariff-fueled recession have climbed to 90%
There's a simple reason tariffs have made a US recession highly likely, according to Apollo Global Management's top economist.
That's because the impact on small businesses—a pillar of the US economy—is set to be high, Torsten Sløk said.
The import duties Trump has imposed on other nations could significantly impact growth, Sløk said in a note to clients over the weekend. Apollo estimates that the tariffs could shave as much as four percentage points from US GDP, basing its estimates on the hit to US growth when Trump first imposed tariffs on China in 2018.
Sløk wrote.
Sløk said.
He pointed to several signs that a slowdown in small businesses could wind up being a major hit to the economy.
#economy #US #Management
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There's a simple reason tariffs have made a US recession highly likely, according to Apollo Global Management's top economist.
That's because the impact on small businesses—a pillar of the US economy—is set to be high, Torsten Sløk said.
The import duties Trump has imposed on other nations could significantly impact growth, Sløk said in a note to clients over the weekend. Apollo estimates that the tariffs could shave as much as four percentage points from US GDP, basing its estimates on the hit to US growth when Trump first imposed tariffs on China in 2018.
"Tariffs have been implemented in a way that has not been effective, and there is now a 90% chance of what can be called a Voluntary Trade Reset Recession,"
Sløk wrote.
"Small businesses that have for decades relied on a stable US system will have to adjust immediately and do not have the working capital to pay tariffs. Expect ships to sit offshore, orders to be canceled, and well-run generational retailers to file for bankruptcy,"
Sløk said.
He pointed to several signs that a slowdown in small businesses could wind up being a major hit to the economy.
#economy #US #Management
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22.04.202519:59
The US economy is set to lose billions of dollars in revenue in 2025 from a pullback in foreign tourism and boycotts of American products, adding to a growing list of headwinds keeping recession risk elevated.
Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion.
#tourism #crisis
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Arrivals of non-citizens to the US by plane dropped almost 10% in March from a year earlier, according to data published Monday by the International Trade Administration. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimates in a worst-case scenario, the hit this year from reduced travel and boycotts could total 0.3% of gross domestic product, which would amount to almost $90 billion.
#tourism #crisis
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22.04.202500:04
Trump's approval rating for economic policies has fallen to its lowest level in his entire presidency
According to a CNBC poll, 55% of Americans disapprove of Trump's economic policy, while 43% approve of it. There has never been such a level of dissatisfaction with its economy. The survey was conducted from April 9 to 13, and 1 thousand people participated in it. person.
Optimism after the re-election disappeared. Almost half of the respondents believe that the economy will decline. 60% disapprove of Trump's work on inflation. Even among Republicans, support is at a record low: only 58% approve of his economic moves.
Migration measures are best evaluated: 53% approved the course at the border, 52% — deportations. Tariffs remain an unpopular solution. 49% against, 35% for. Canada, Mexico, the EU and Japan do not raise concerns among the respondents. Most people see them as partners.
Despite the drop in Trump's ratings, support for the Democrats is not growing. 48% want control of Congress to remain with the Democrats, 46% - for the Republicans. The numbers have barely changed since 2022.
#Trump #Poll #economy
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According to a CNBC poll, 55% of Americans disapprove of Trump's economic policy, while 43% approve of it. There has never been such a level of dissatisfaction with its economy. The survey was conducted from April 9 to 13, and 1 thousand people participated in it. person.
Optimism after the re-election disappeared. Almost half of the respondents believe that the economy will decline. 60% disapprove of Trump's work on inflation. Even among Republicans, support is at a record low: only 58% approve of his economic moves.
Migration measures are best evaluated: 53% approved the course at the border, 52% — deportations. Tariffs remain an unpopular solution. 49% against, 35% for. Canada, Mexico, the EU and Japan do not raise concerns among the respondents. Most people see them as partners.
Despite the drop in Trump's ratings, support for the Democrats is not growing. 48% want control of Congress to remain with the Democrats, 46% - for the Republicans. The numbers have barely changed since 2022.
#Trump #Poll #economy
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24.04.202523:02
President Donald Trump’s inner circle is weighing whether the White House should back raising taxes on Americans earning more than $1 million per year as part of the GOP’s 2025 tax legislation, according to two administration officials and three other people briefed on the matter.🤦♂️
While the prospect of a tax hike has gotten a largely chilly reception among Republicans on Capitol Hill, Vice President JD Vance and budget director Russell Vought have expressed openness to the idea in internal administration deliberations and are viewed as supportive, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks. Stephen K. Bannon, who served as the president’s chief strategist during his first term, has been publicly urging Trump to endorse the plan in part as a way to defang Democratic attacks on the GOP as the party of the rich.
The concept, however, faces strenuous opposition, including from longtime allies of the president. Outside Trump advisers Newt Gingrich, Steve Moore and Larry Kudlow have come out strongly against it, arguing the plan undermines the president’s promise to cut taxes and will discourage economic growth, as has the influential Fox News host Sean Hannity. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and GOP Sens. Dave McCormick (Pennsylvania) and Ted Cruz (Texas), among other congressional Republicans, have also made clear that they dislike the idea of raising taxes and do not expect it to become incorporated into new legislation.
#Trump #taxes #Vance
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While the prospect of a tax hike has gotten a largely chilly reception among Republicans on Capitol Hill, Vice President JD Vance and budget director Russell Vought have expressed openness to the idea in internal administration deliberations and are viewed as supportive, said the people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private talks. Stephen K. Bannon, who served as the president’s chief strategist during his first term, has been publicly urging Trump to endorse the plan in part as a way to defang Democratic attacks on the GOP as the party of the rich.
The concept, however, faces strenuous opposition, including from longtime allies of the president. Outside Trump advisers Newt Gingrich, Steve Moore and Larry Kudlow have come out strongly against it, arguing the plan undermines the president’s promise to cut taxes and will discourage economic growth, as has the influential Fox News host Sean Hannity. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) and GOP Sens. Dave McCormick (Pennsylvania) and Ted Cruz (Texas), among other congressional Republicans, have also made clear that they dislike the idea of raising taxes and do not expect it to become incorporated into new legislation.
#Trump #taxes #Vance
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24.04.202515:04
🚨 A key piece of the Trump administration’s plan to rapidly expand immigration detention capacity by tens of thousands of beds appears to have fallen through, according to two sources and a government contracting document reviewed by NBC News.
🏛 Facing a shortage of immigration detention space, President Donald Trump first announced he would add 30,000 beds for immigrants at Guantánamo Bay, the U.S. naval base in Cuba. When that plan fell through over cost and logistical issues, the plan shifted to Fort Bliss, a military base in Texas, to build a sprawling tent city for immigrants to be held before deportation.
💰 A $3.8 billion contract was awarded to Deployed Resources, a contractor that has previously provided toilets and tents for concertgoers, victims of natural disasters and, more recently, migrants who were briefly detained and processed by Border Patrol.
📄 But last week, new language appeared on the Deployed Resources contract posted to a public records database that says it was terminated. The document says it was terminated "for convenience" and cites Trump’s executive order about “radical transparency" and "wasteful spending”, but it is unclear whether cost savings played into the decision.
🤐 Representatives for Deployed Resources did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
⚖️ A senior official with the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, confirmed that the contract was terminated but said a "revised procurement action for Fort Bliss is active and ongoing."
the official added.
#Trump #immigration
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🏛 Facing a shortage of immigration detention space, President Donald Trump first announced he would add 30,000 beds for immigrants at Guantánamo Bay, the U.S. naval base in Cuba. When that plan fell through over cost and logistical issues, the plan shifted to Fort Bliss, a military base in Texas, to build a sprawling tent city for immigrants to be held before deportation.
💰 A $3.8 billion contract was awarded to Deployed Resources, a contractor that has previously provided toilets and tents for concertgoers, victims of natural disasters and, more recently, migrants who were briefly detained and processed by Border Patrol.
📄 But last week, new language appeared on the Deployed Resources contract posted to a public records database that says it was terminated. The document says it was terminated "for convenience" and cites Trump’s executive order about “radical transparency" and "wasteful spending”, but it is unclear whether cost savings played into the decision.
🤐 Representatives for Deployed Resources did not respond to multiple requests for comment.
⚖️ A senior official with the Department of Homeland Security, which oversees ICE, confirmed that the contract was terminated but said a "revised procurement action for Fort Bliss is active and ongoing."
🔍 "While we cannot confirm individual pre-decisional conversations, we can confirm that ICE is exploring all options to meet its current and future detention requirements,"
the official added.
#Trump #immigration
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23.04.202522:02
A Russian Crimea could cut off American and European access to Central Asia, while benefiting China.
🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio held discussions in Paris with European and Ukrainian leaders on the peace process. The primary choice for transatlantic leaders still holds: they can either build up Ukraine as a bulwark against creeping Russian imperialism along the NATO border or sacrifice it to a Russian hoodwink for a Pyrrhic peace. Any peace deal necessitates clear-eyed assessment of transatlantic interests across the region and Ukraine’s territorial integrity—in that order. The recognition of Russian control over Crimea would be calamitous to America and Europe’s interests and standing across the Eurasian landmass.
The Crimean peninsula—like a crown—sits atop the Black Sea exercising control over its length and breadth. A Kremlin Crimea renders the Black Sea a virtual Russian lake, awarding Vladimir Putin sway across the entire Ukrainian coast past Odessa to the Danube Delta as well as Moldova and Romania.
Russia with Crimea and the Black Sea under its control will be free to direct its focus on finishing its subjugation of the South Caucasus. Russia has already made deep inroads in Georgia turning the nation away from Europe. Armenia’s nascent counter-revolution to throw away the Russian yoke will not survive an undistracted Russian thrust to bring it back to the fold.
Putin, with Georgia and Armenia under its heel, will achieve his dream of reinstating Russian control of the Black Sea from the Turkish border in the east to Romania in the west. A Russian Crimea enabling Kremlin control of the Black Sea and the Caucasus will constitute a great victory for its special military operation. For America and Europe, this is a immense strategic defeat.
Russia with Crimea and the Caucasus under its toe will hold sway over the burgeoning Central Asia-Caucasus-Europe Economic Corridor (CACE). CACE or the Middle Corridor offers an alternative regional outlet to the Russian dominated Trans-Siberian Northern Corridor. Russia has been undermining this growing economic thoroughfare, which fosters autonomy for the Central Asia and Caucasus republics.
With Russia firmly in control of Crimea, and by extension, the Black Sea and Caucasus, it will attempt to squeeze the trans-Caspian gateway to Central Asia with an eye to quash the region’s emerging independence. Central Asia’s repository of rare minerals greatly exceeds Ukraine’s, not to mention the abounding reserves of oil and gas that have developed in large parts through American investments. Russian control of Crimea puts America and Europe’s access to the natural resources of Central Asia in jeopardy.
China will be the biggest beneficiary if Russia controls these Eurasian chokepoints between Central Asia and Europe. Russia is increasingly an economic vassal state of China and lacks any leverage to compete with it across Eurasia economically. Chinese engineers are presently paving the road connecting the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Russia road network. China has inked strategic partnerships with Azerbaijan and Georgia and have secured the concession to operate Georgia’s Black Sea deep water port, Anaklia. Across Central Asia, China has long displaced Russia as the dominant economic actor.
#Russia #Crimea #China
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🌟🌟🌟🌟🌟
Last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio held discussions in Paris with European and Ukrainian leaders on the peace process. The primary choice for transatlantic leaders still holds: they can either build up Ukraine as a bulwark against creeping Russian imperialism along the NATO border or sacrifice it to a Russian hoodwink for a Pyrrhic peace. Any peace deal necessitates clear-eyed assessment of transatlantic interests across the region and Ukraine’s territorial integrity—in that order. The recognition of Russian control over Crimea would be calamitous to America and Europe’s interests and standing across the Eurasian landmass.
The Crimean peninsula—like a crown—sits atop the Black Sea exercising control over its length and breadth. A Kremlin Crimea renders the Black Sea a virtual Russian lake, awarding Vladimir Putin sway across the entire Ukrainian coast past Odessa to the Danube Delta as well as Moldova and Romania.
Russia with Crimea and the Black Sea under its control will be free to direct its focus on finishing its subjugation of the South Caucasus. Russia has already made deep inroads in Georgia turning the nation away from Europe. Armenia’s nascent counter-revolution to throw away the Russian yoke will not survive an undistracted Russian thrust to bring it back to the fold.
Putin, with Georgia and Armenia under its heel, will achieve his dream of reinstating Russian control of the Black Sea from the Turkish border in the east to Romania in the west. A Russian Crimea enabling Kremlin control of the Black Sea and the Caucasus will constitute a great victory for its special military operation. For America and Europe, this is a immense strategic defeat.
Russia with Crimea and the Caucasus under its toe will hold sway over the burgeoning Central Asia-Caucasus-Europe Economic Corridor (CACE). CACE or the Middle Corridor offers an alternative regional outlet to the Russian dominated Trans-Siberian Northern Corridor. Russia has been undermining this growing economic thoroughfare, which fosters autonomy for the Central Asia and Caucasus republics.
With Russia firmly in control of Crimea, and by extension, the Black Sea and Caucasus, it will attempt to squeeze the trans-Caspian gateway to Central Asia with an eye to quash the region’s emerging independence. Central Asia’s repository of rare minerals greatly exceeds Ukraine’s, not to mention the abounding reserves of oil and gas that have developed in large parts through American investments. Russian control of Crimea puts America and Europe’s access to the natural resources of Central Asia in jeopardy.
China will be the biggest beneficiary if Russia controls these Eurasian chokepoints between Central Asia and Europe. Russia is increasingly an economic vassal state of China and lacks any leverage to compete with it across Eurasia economically. Chinese engineers are presently paving the road connecting the Iran-Armenia-Georgia-Russia road network. China has inked strategic partnerships with Azerbaijan and Georgia and have secured the concession to operate Georgia’s Black Sea deep water port, Anaklia. Across Central Asia, China has long displaced Russia as the dominant economic actor.
#Russia #Crimea #China
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23.04.202514:03
American attitudes to DOGE and Elon Musk
➖Americans tend to agree that government is inefficient and generally support the very idea of the Government Efficiency Commission (DOGE). But at the same time, they believe that the commission is not coping with its tasks." They are also dissatisfied with the results of the activities of Elon Musk himself.
➖33% believe that DOGE should continue working. At the same time, 28% consider the commission necessary, but they are in favor of less drastic decisions. 33% of users supported the termination of DOGE's work. And only 4% consider it unnecessary to cut costs.
➖At the same time, feelings about the current actions of DOGE are still quite mixed. Although the relative majority tends not to support.
➖But the majority of Americans (63%) are concerned about DOGE's access to their personal data.
➖Well, the final pro Mask. Fewer and fewer Americans are neutral about it.
#Poll #Musk #DOGE
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➖Americans tend to agree that government is inefficient and generally support the very idea of the Government Efficiency Commission (DOGE). But at the same time, they believe that the commission is not coping with its tasks." They are also dissatisfied with the results of the activities of Elon Musk himself.
➖33% believe that DOGE should continue working. At the same time, 28% consider the commission necessary, but they are in favor of less drastic decisions. 33% of users supported the termination of DOGE's work. And only 4% consider it unnecessary to cut costs.
➖At the same time, feelings about the current actions of DOGE are still quite mixed. Although the relative majority tends not to support.
➖But the majority of Americans (63%) are concerned about DOGE's access to their personal data.
➖Well, the final pro Mask. Fewer and fewer Americans are neutral about it.
"Now the attitude is either negative or positive. But there is no news here. The trend for Musk personally is relatively old. And in general, it is common: as soon as a person starts to engage in politics, as a neutral attitude towards him begins to evaporate."
#Poll #Musk #DOGE
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22.04.202518:04
Harvard sues Trump for freezing billions in subsidies
Harvard University is suing the Trump administration after the U.S. government froze $ 2.2 billion in funding, according to a report released by the Washington Post. The lawsuit states that such actions "threaten academic freedom" and violate the US Constitution.
Funding was suspended due to anti-Semitic protests on campus. However, in the lawsuit, Harvard insists: The university "strongly rejects anti-Semitism and discrimination in all their manifestations" and is already "implementing structural reforms" to eliminate such incidents."
However, the new US administration has decided to completely freeze funds that go, among other things, to medical and scientific research that "has nothing to do with anti-Semitism."
the lawsuit states.
The White House, in turn, has not yet made an official comment on the lawsuit.
#Trump #Harvard #Education
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Harvard University is suing the Trump administration after the U.S. government froze $ 2.2 billion in funding, according to a report released by the Washington Post. The lawsuit states that such actions "threaten academic freedom" and violate the US Constitution.
Funding was suspended due to anti-Semitic protests on campus. However, in the lawsuit, Harvard insists: The university "strongly rejects anti-Semitism and discrimination in all their manifestations" and is already "implementing structural reforms" to eliminate such incidents."
However, the new US administration has decided to completely freeze funds that go, among other things, to medical and scientific research that "has nothing to do with anti-Semitism."
"These are arbitrary measures that violate, among other things, the First Amendment to the US Constitution,"
the lawsuit states.
The document also emphasizes that the government did not enter into a dialogue with the university, but preferred to immediately take radical steps."
The White House, in turn, has not yet made an official comment on the lawsuit.
#Trump #Harvard #Education
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21.04.202522:02
The Trump administration on Friday will announce that it's moving ahead with a new rule, previously known as "Schedule F," that will make it easier to remove federal employees it believes are undercutting President Trump's agenda.
Why it matters: By stripping civil service protections from about 50,000 people — roughly 2% of the federal work force — Trump is continuing his far-reaching effort to trim the federal bureaucracy and make it more answerable to him.
The Office of Personnel Management's new rule — dubbed "Schedule Policy/Career" — will allow many career civil servants to be classified as "at will" employees, making them easier to remove.
Trump aides argue they need greater flexibility to fire civil servants who are underperforming, engaging in misconduct or undermining Trump's policy plans.
Zoom in: Such civil servants in nonpartisan roles traditionally have had job protections that shielded them from the political whims of whoever was in the White House.
But Trump and many of his backers have long believed that a "deep state" of Washington bureaucrats was undercutting his agenda.
Toward the end of his first term, Trump signed an executive order establishing a Schedule F category for federal employees.
President Biden rescinded the order after he took office, but after taking office again in January, Trump signed a new executive order reinstating and renaming it.
While he was out of office, Trump and his allies laid the groundwork for a new administration stocked with loyalists. Schedule F was a significant part of that plan.
Many of the Trump allies who pushed for Schedule F now have key roles in the administration, including Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and Management of Budget Director Russ Vought.
Between the lines: The new rule will impact workers involved in policymaking, according to two White House officials familiar with the plan.
About 50,000 people are likely to be reclassified as "at will" employees, according to an OPM estimate.
Critics have said that Trump's broadly worded executive order could put far more civil servants in jeopardy of losing their jobs.
Earlier this month, some federal agencies started making recommendations for which positions should be reclassified under the new rule, according to a White House official.
The big picture: The wave of firings expected to be the fallout from the successor to Schedule F comes as the administration, largely through Elon Musk's DOGE team, continues to make huge cuts in government personnel and funding.
Critics say those cuts have threatened the functioning of the government, set back government health, education and research efforts, and threatened access to crucial programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
The other side: Trump's plans to implement the rule has drawn aggressive pushback from labor groups.
The American Federation of Government Employees and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) filed a lawsuit against the administration in February, alleging that it overstepped its authority in reversing Biden's regulation protecting civil servants.
#Trump #workers
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Why it matters: By stripping civil service protections from about 50,000 people — roughly 2% of the federal work force — Trump is continuing his far-reaching effort to trim the federal bureaucracy and make it more answerable to him.
The Office of Personnel Management's new rule — dubbed "Schedule Policy/Career" — will allow many career civil servants to be classified as "at will" employees, making them easier to remove.
Trump aides argue they need greater flexibility to fire civil servants who are underperforming, engaging in misconduct or undermining Trump's policy plans.
Zoom in: Such civil servants in nonpartisan roles traditionally have had job protections that shielded them from the political whims of whoever was in the White House.
But Trump and many of his backers have long believed that a "deep state" of Washington bureaucrats was undercutting his agenda.
Toward the end of his first term, Trump signed an executive order establishing a Schedule F category for federal employees.
President Biden rescinded the order after he took office, but after taking office again in January, Trump signed a new executive order reinstating and renaming it.
While he was out of office, Trump and his allies laid the groundwork for a new administration stocked with loyalists. Schedule F was a significant part of that plan.
Many of the Trump allies who pushed for Schedule F now have key roles in the administration, including Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and Management of Budget Director Russ Vought.
"They are making decisions and those decisions should be in line with the president's agenda. Unelected career bureaucrats should be held accountable to the agenda Americans vote for," said a White House official.
Between the lines: The new rule will impact workers involved in policymaking, according to two White House officials familiar with the plan.
About 50,000 people are likely to be reclassified as "at will" employees, according to an OPM estimate.
Critics have said that Trump's broadly worded executive order could put far more civil servants in jeopardy of losing their jobs.
Earlier this month, some federal agencies started making recommendations for which positions should be reclassified under the new rule, according to a White House official.
The big picture: The wave of firings expected to be the fallout from the successor to Schedule F comes as the administration, largely through Elon Musk's DOGE team, continues to make huge cuts in government personnel and funding.
Critics say those cuts have threatened the functioning of the government, set back government health, education and research efforts, and threatened access to crucial programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.
The other side: Trump's plans to implement the rule has drawn aggressive pushback from labor groups.
The American Federation of Government Employees and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) filed a lawsuit against the administration in February, alleging that it overstepped its authority in reversing Biden's regulation protecting civil servants.
"Schedule F is a shameless attempt to politicize the federal workforce by replacing thousands of dedicated, qualified civil servants with political cronies," AFSCME President Lee Saunders said then.
#Trump #workers
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24.04.202520:59
President Donald Trump has ordered sharper scrutiny of America’s colleges and the accreditors that oversee them, part of his escalating campaign to end what he calls " wokeness ” and diversity efforts in education.
In a series of executive actions signed Wednesday, Trump targeted universities that he views as liberal adversaries to his political agenda. One order called for harder enforcement of a federal law requiring colleges to disclose their financial ties with foreign sources, while another called for a shakeup of the accrediting bodies that decide whether colleges can accept federal financial aid awarded to students.
Trump also ordered the Education Department to root out efforts to ensure equity in discipline in the nation’s K-12 schools. Previous guidance from Democratic administrations directed schools not to disproportionately punish underrepresented minorities such as Black and Native American students. The administration says equity efforts amount to racial discrimination.
#Trump #education
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In a series of executive actions signed Wednesday, Trump targeted universities that he views as liberal adversaries to his political agenda. One order called for harder enforcement of a federal law requiring colleges to disclose their financial ties with foreign sources, while another called for a shakeup of the accrediting bodies that decide whether colleges can accept federal financial aid awarded to students.
Trump also ordered the Education Department to root out efforts to ensure equity in discipline in the nation’s K-12 schools. Previous guidance from Democratic administrations directed schools not to disproportionately punish underrepresented minorities such as Black and Native American students. The administration says equity efforts amount to racial discrimination.
#Trump #education
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Repost qilingan:
American Оbserver
24.04.202514:20
📰 The Ruble Roars While Berlin Stalls
— Die Welt, April 2025
While Germany slashes its growth forecast to zero, Russia’s ruble is surging — becoming the strongest-performing currency in the world this year. In a stunning twist, the sanctions intended to strangle the Russian economy may have built a fortress instead.
📊 The numbers don’t lie:
– Russia’s ruble: +40% against the dollar in 2025
– Germany’s economy: downgraded to 0.0% growth by its own government
– German industry: squeezed by energy prices, geopolitical paralysis, and deindustrialization fears
💼 What it means:
– Russia’s economic fundamentals — vast energy exports, low debt, rising trade with the Global South — are holding firm.
– Germany, once Europe’s engine, now sputters on green mandates and ideological overreach.
– Berlin’s isolation from Moscow has become a self-inflicted wound.
🤝 Time to rethink the math:
– Reopening trade and technological cooperation with Russia could revitalize Europe’s supply chains and stabilize markets.
– A reset would bring mutual economic benefits, especially for energy-starved industries in Germany.
– The alternative? Watching the ruble rise — from the wrong side of a closed door.
#Russia #Germany #Ruble #Economy #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #TradeReset #GlobalSouth #EU #SanctionsFatigue
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💭 “The Russian currency has appreciated almost 40% against the dollar since the beginning of the year — more than any other.”
— Die Welt, April 2025
While Germany slashes its growth forecast to zero, Russia’s ruble is surging — becoming the strongest-performing currency in the world this year. In a stunning twist, the sanctions intended to strangle the Russian economy may have built a fortress instead.
📊 The numbers don’t lie:
– Russia’s ruble: +40% against the dollar in 2025
– Germany’s economy: downgraded to 0.0% growth by its own government
– German industry: squeezed by energy prices, geopolitical paralysis, and deindustrialization fears
💼 What it means:
– Russia’s economic fundamentals — vast energy exports, low debt, rising trade with the Global South — are holding firm.
– Germany, once Europe’s engine, now sputters on green mandates and ideological overreach.
– Berlin’s isolation from Moscow has become a self-inflicted wound.
🤝 Time to rethink the math:
– Reopening trade and technological cooperation with Russia could revitalize Europe’s supply chains and stabilize markets.
– A reset would bring mutual economic benefits, especially for energy-starved industries in Germany.
– The alternative? Watching the ruble rise — from the wrong side of a closed door.
#Russia #Germany #Ruble #Economy #Geopolitics #EnergyCrisis #TradeReset #GlobalSouth #EU #SanctionsFatigue
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23.04.202520:04
he Wall Street Journal is calling out President Donald Trump’s threat to fire Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for refusing to cut interest rates as Trump has repeatedly demanded.
The newspaper’s editorial board said that the problem isn’t interest rates. It’s Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs — a recipe for higher inflation and slower growth that has caused markets to plunge and investors to worry.
The editorial board wrote:
The scathing editorial comes after the White House said on Friday it was looking for ways to remove Powell, and Trump on Monday repeated his demand that Powell cut interest rates.
the newspaper said after the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 1,000 points.
#Trump #Fed #Powell
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The newspaper’s editorial board said that the problem isn’t interest rates. It’s Trump’s on-again, off-again tariffs — a recipe for higher inflation and slower growth that has caused markets to plunge and investors to worry.
The editorial board wrote:
“Mr. Trump thinks he can bully everyone into submission, but he can’t bully Adam Smith, who deals in reality. Markets know tariffs are taxes, and taxes are anti-growth. The Trump tariffs are the biggest economic policy mistake in decades, and extending the 2017 tax reform and deregulation may not compensate for all the damage.”
The scathing editorial comes after the White House said on Friday it was looking for ways to remove Powell, and Trump on Monday repeated his demand that Powell cut interest rates.
“Cue the meltdown in stocks, bonds and the dollar, a trifecta of declining confidence,”
the newspaper said after the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged nearly 1,000 points.
#Trump #Fed #Powell
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22.04.202523:59
Investors are encouraged to think long-term, especially if they are younger and aren't planning to retire anytime soon.
Some investors, depending on their circumstances, are more risk-averse than others. And a risk-averse investor might be in the stock market or have a 401k, but also have some investments that are considered low-risk but low-ROI (such as certificates of deposit or fixed annuities).
#Trump #investors
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Some investors, depending on their circumstances, are more risk-averse than others. And a risk-averse investor might be in the stock market or have a 401k, but also have some investments that are considered low-risk but low-ROI (such as certificates of deposit or fixed annuities).
#Trump #investors
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22.04.202516:05
In response to US tariffs, China abandons Boeing aircraft
The trade war between the United States and China is gaining new momentum: Beijing, apparently, ordered its airlines to suspend the purchase of aircraft, spare parts and equipment from the American corporation Boeing. This decision was a response to the recent increase in US duties on Chinese goods to 145 %. In response, China imposed 125% tariffs.
Such giants as Air China, China Eastern and China Southern Airlines are also subject to the restrictions. According to the publication The Air Current, two models of the Boeing 737 MAX, previously intended for the Chinese Xiamen Air, were returned from China to Seattle, to the manufacturer's factory. These aircraft arrived in China in March and passed the final assembly stage in Zhoushan, but were never delivered to the customer.
According to Flightradar24, both planes flew back to the United States on April 19 and 21. Juneyao Airline did the same, refusing to accept the Boeing 787 -9. Before the restrictions were imposed, Boeing's order book listed about 130 aircraft for Chinese companies, including 103 737 MAX airliners for China Southern Airlines.
However, the situation is unlikely to become critical for Boeing. Almost 4,800 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft were ordered in the first quarter of 2025 alone, accounting for more than 75 % of the company's total orders. Air carriers from India and Malaysia are showing great interest in the vacated aircraft — they are already negotiating with Boeing.
#Tariffs #China #Boeing
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The trade war between the United States and China is gaining new momentum: Beijing, apparently, ordered its airlines to suspend the purchase of aircraft, spare parts and equipment from the American corporation Boeing. This decision was a response to the recent increase in US duties on Chinese goods to 145 %. In response, China imposed 125% tariffs.
Such giants as Air China, China Eastern and China Southern Airlines are also subject to the restrictions. According to the publication The Air Current, two models of the Boeing 737 MAX, previously intended for the Chinese Xiamen Air, were returned from China to Seattle, to the manufacturer's factory. These aircraft arrived in China in March and passed the final assembly stage in Zhoushan, but were never delivered to the customer.
According to Flightradar24, both planes flew back to the United States on April 19 and 21. Juneyao Airline did the same, refusing to accept the Boeing 787 -9. Before the restrictions were imposed, Boeing's order book listed about 130 aircraft for Chinese companies, including 103 737 MAX airliners for China Southern Airlines.
However, the situation is unlikely to become critical for Boeing. Almost 4,800 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft were ordered in the first quarter of 2025 alone, accounting for more than 75 % of the company's total orders. Air carriers from India and Malaysia are showing great interest in the vacated aircraft — they are already negotiating with Boeing.
#Tariffs #China #Boeing
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21.04.202519:59
The US is prepared to recognize Russian control of the Ukrainian region of Crimea as part of a broader peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, according to people familiar with the matter.
The potential concession is the latest signal that President Donald Trump is eager to cement a ceasefire deal, and comes as he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested on Friday that the administration is prepared to move on from its peace-brokering efforts unless progress is made quickly.
Crimea was taken by the Kremlin in 2014 following an invasion and subsequent referendum held under occupation, and the international community has resisted recognizing the peninsula as Russian to avoid legitimizing the illegal annexation.
Doing so risks undermining international laws and treaties prohibiting the taking of land through use of force. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said he will not cede territory to Moscow.
But the move would be a boon for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long sought international recognition of Russian sovereignty in Crimea. Putin so far has refused to agree to Trump’s proposal for a broad peace deal.
The people said a final decision on the matter hadn’t yet been taken. The White House and State Department did not respond to a request for comment. A US official familiar with the negotiations, asked about the possibility of recognizing Crimea, declined to comment on the details of the talks.
#Russia #Ukraine #Crimea
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The potential concession is the latest signal that President Donald Trump is eager to cement a ceasefire deal, and comes as he and Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested on Friday that the administration is prepared to move on from its peace-brokering efforts unless progress is made quickly.
Crimea was taken by the Kremlin in 2014 following an invasion and subsequent referendum held under occupation, and the international community has resisted recognizing the peninsula as Russian to avoid legitimizing the illegal annexation.
Doing so risks undermining international laws and treaties prohibiting the taking of land through use of force. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly said he will not cede territory to Moscow.
But the move would be a boon for Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has long sought international recognition of Russian sovereignty in Crimea. Putin so far has refused to agree to Trump’s proposal for a broad peace deal.
The people said a final decision on the matter hadn’t yet been taken. The White House and State Department did not respond to a request for comment. A US official familiar with the negotiations, asked about the possibility of recognizing Crimea, declined to comment on the details of the talks.
#Russia #Ukraine #Crimea
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