2025-02-21 Daily Vol
The week is coming to an end.
Good performance on my perp acct this week; 2.5x on a small acct
Biggest winners were Short SOL initially and Long BTC & BERA
Now generally neutral/short and lowering leverage going into the us opex and the weekend.
- Main Long : BTC
- Small longs on TAO and AI16Z
- Main Short : ETH
- Smaller Shorts : SOL XRP WIF TRUMP
BTC at Local High?
- There was a pretty good sized twap from Coinbase overnight.
- A $2B bid from Saylor will usually move the price around 4%
- News was announced at 94k, so a 4% move is about 97.8k
- We also had 1b stimmy check from FTX, so that could also push the price up a bit further.
- All in all the current price around 98.2k seems like a fair price.
- Technically it’s been rejected here plenty of times, indicating supply overhang.
- But it does feel a bit like a consensus trade already. Most perp traders have caught onto this. We’re already seeing the funding rate fall since hitting 98.5k.
- So there might be one more squeeze after clearing OPEX today, but generally think its a good place to TP and go neutral and/or start building shorts.
- Alts also seem to be losing steam, so long BTC and short alts seem
Alt Szn?
- Not convinced it’s here yet.
- Think we need more time.
