25.02.202502:22
looks like SOL unlocks are still not priced in
i like Avi’s view that ETH could be a better alt long position now
i like Avi’s view that ETH could be a better alt long position now
23.02.202522:20
21.02.202502:45
2025-02-21 Daily Vol
The week is coming to an end.
Good performance on my perp acct this week; 2.5x on a small acct
Biggest winners were Short SOL initially and Long BTC & BERA
Now generally neutral/short and lowering leverage going into the us opex and the weekend.
- Main Long : BTC
- Small longs on TAO and AI16Z
- Main Short : ETH
- Smaller Shorts : SOL XRP WIF TRUMP
BTC at Local High?
- There was a pretty good sized twap from Coinbase overnight.
- A $2B bid from Saylor will usually move the price around 4%
- News was announced at 94k, so a 4% move is about 97.8k
- We also had 1b stimmy check from FTX, so that could also push the price up a bit further.
- All in all the current price around 98.2k seems like a fair price.
- Technically it’s been rejected here plenty of times, indicating supply overhang.
- But it does feel a bit like a consensus trade already. Most perp traders have caught onto this. We’re already seeing the funding rate fall since hitting 98.5k.
- So there might be one more squeeze after clearing OPEX today, but generally think its a good place to TP and go neutral and/or start building shorts.
- Alts also seem to be losing steam, so long BTC and short alts seem
Alt Szn?
- Not convinced it’s here yet.
- Think we need more time.
The week is coming to an end.
Good performance on my perp acct this week; 2.5x on a small acct
Biggest winners were Short SOL initially and Long BTC & BERA
Now generally neutral/short and lowering leverage going into the us opex and the weekend.
- Main Long : BTC
- Small longs on TAO and AI16Z
- Main Short : ETH
- Smaller Shorts : SOL XRP WIF TRUMP
BTC at Local High?
- There was a pretty good sized twap from Coinbase overnight.
- A $2B bid from Saylor will usually move the price around 4%
- News was announced at 94k, so a 4% move is about 97.8k
- We also had 1b stimmy check from FTX, so that could also push the price up a bit further.
- All in all the current price around 98.2k seems like a fair price.
- Technically it’s been rejected here plenty of times, indicating supply overhang.
- But it does feel a bit like a consensus trade already. Most perp traders have caught onto this. We’re already seeing the funding rate fall since hitting 98.5k.
- So there might be one more squeeze after clearing OPEX today, but generally think its a good place to TP and go neutral and/or start building shorts.
- Alts also seem to be losing steam, so long BTC and short alts seem
Alt Szn?
- Not convinced it’s here yet.
- Think we need more time.
20.02.202501:31
2025-02-20 Daily Vol
Market seems to be getting more confident that we found a bottom.
1000x Avi thinking short BTC long Alts
- Bullish TAO.
- Bullish SOL.
- LTC priced in?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWLhEYwqqcc&ab_channel=1000xPodcast
Main Long : Staying in BTC
- BTC long term skews got more bulish. Perhaps on Trump mentioning the word Bitcoin multiple times with the stock market helped.
- Perp positioning is still short on BTC.
For short-term alt longs, BERA XRP TAO AI16Z
- TAO : Catching the early rush into ecosystems has historically been a good play
- AI16Z : AI reversal
Shorts : None
- Quite dangerous portfolio wise.
- Short LTC could be a good leg.
- Will be monitoring closely into OPEX
- If we clear Friday US time, will be looking for shorts more aggressively as we take out 99k
MSTR raising more notes seems to be putting on cap on upside for now.
Not taking this trade but, short MSTR long BTC might be a good pair(the Shkreli trade)
The FOMC minutes talking about ending QT also feels like a good excuse for SPX to pop up
Market seems to be getting more confident that we found a bottom.
1000x Avi thinking short BTC long Alts
- Bullish TAO.
- Bullish SOL.
- LTC priced in?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWLhEYwqqcc&ab_channel=1000xPodcast
Main Long : Staying in BTC
- BTC long term skews got more bulish. Perhaps on Trump mentioning the word Bitcoin multiple times with the stock market helped.
- Perp positioning is still short on BTC.
For short-term alt longs, BERA XRP TAO AI16Z
- TAO : Catching the early rush into ecosystems has historically been a good play
- AI16Z : AI reversal
Shorts : None
- Quite dangerous portfolio wise.
- Short LTC could be a good leg.
- Will be monitoring closely into OPEX
- If we clear Friday US time, will be looking for shorts more aggressively as we take out 99k
MSTR raising more notes seems to be putting on cap on upside for now.
Not taking this trade but, short MSTR long BTC might be a good pair(the Shkreli trade)
The FOMC minutes talking about ending QT also feels like a good excuse for SPX to pop up
12.02.202501:48
25.02.202501:43
2025-02-25
gm goblin town residents
1000x on BTC
What is the market targeting? 150k?
90k is still not that good value.
75k is okay, but a bit low.
1000x on Alts
Re-emphasizing long ALT/BTC
Alts seem bottomed, and not enough sellers
HYPE doesn’t do as well on the rebound
Thoughts on 1000x
I think this is getting more merit now
The hard part is finding the needle in the haystack
Agree that HYPE could be sluggishness on a rebound
General Thoughts
Technically looking bottomey
Sentiment is awful
Gonna take a stab at longs
Also testing ALT/BTC long trade
Positioning : Neutral/Long
Closed shorts : XRP POPCAT
Shorts left open : ETH SUI AVAX WIF
Adding longs to BTC, BERA, TAO and SOL
Still keeping BTC as main long
gm goblin town residents
1000x on BTC
What is the market targeting? 150k?
90k is still not that good value.
75k is okay, but a bit low.
1000x on Alts
Re-emphasizing long ALT/BTC
Alts seem bottomed, and not enough sellers
HYPE doesn’t do as well on the rebound
Thoughts on 1000x
I think this is getting more merit now
The hard part is finding the needle in the haystack
Agree that HYPE could be sluggishness on a rebound
General Thoughts
Technically looking bottomey
Sentiment is awful
Gonna take a stab at longs
Also testing ALT/BTC long trade
Positioning : Neutral/Long
Closed shorts : XRP POPCAT
Shorts left open : ETH SUI AVAX WIF
Adding longs to BTC, BERA, TAO and SOL
Still keeping BTC as main long
22.02.202501:39
Positioning : Long for the weekend
Long BTC
Short ETH + Twapping more
Small longs on TAO, AI16Z and POPCAT???
Long BTC
Short ETH + Twapping more
Small longs on TAO, AI16Z and POPCAT???
21.02.202502:45
19.02.202501:52
2025-02-19
BTC
- Perps funding : Close to neutral
- Spot CVDs : Capitulation down and now seeing some buying
- Coinbase Premium : Negative
- Spot orderbooks : Neutral. 95k bids got filled.
- ETF outflows starting this week red
- Option Skews : Bullish medium term
ETH
- Perps funding : Slightly negative
- Option Skews : Bearish
- Spot orderbooks : Neutral
- ETF flows spotty
- CME : Funding neutral. OI NOT reset yet.
Saylor raising 2b w 0% convertible notes. again.
SPX hugging ATHs (still have first opex of the year on Friday to watch for)
Gut : I think we bottomed locally
Positioning : Long
Longing BTC and ETH
On the side, some BERA. Funding still very negative despite very supportive price action.
Closed a lot of my shorts for now.
Looking to short as BTC gets to 100k
BTC
- Perps funding : Close to neutral
- Spot CVDs : Capitulation down and now seeing some buying
- Coinbase Premium : Negative
- Spot orderbooks : Neutral. 95k bids got filled.
- ETF outflows starting this week red
- Option Skews : Bullish medium term
ETH
- Perps funding : Slightly negative
- Option Skews : Bearish
- Spot orderbooks : Neutral
- ETF flows spotty
- CME : Funding neutral. OI NOT reset yet.
Saylor raising 2b w 0% convertible notes. again.
SPX hugging ATHs (still have first opex of the year on Friday to watch for)
Gut : I think we bottomed locally
Positioning : Long
Longing BTC and ETH
On the side, some BERA. Funding still very negative despite very supportive price action.
Closed a lot of my shorts for now.
Looking to short as BTC gets to 100k
11.02.202505:24
Avi is bullish
- Liquidation flushed out a lot of sellers
- Saylor announcement didn’t cause sell-off, so we’ve run out of sellers?
- Tariff news not selling off the market
- Positioning : Everyone is very defensive atm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4SDyXHU5tA&ab_channel=1000xPodcast
- Liquidation flushed out a lot of sellers
- Saylor announcement didn’t cause sell-off, so we’ve run out of sellers?
- Tariff news not selling off the market
- Positioning : Everyone is very defensive atm
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q4SDyXHU5tA&ab_channel=1000xPodcast
03.02.202500:27
wow -91.5%
24.02.202517:14
Переслал из:
Wu Blockchain News
21.02.202517:37
Bybit CEO BEO said that Bybit will not buy ETH immediately, but will rely on partners to provide bridge loans. Bybit will ensure that all users can withdraw, but because the traffic is 100x the usual, it will take some time to process, and some risk confirmation is required for large withdrawals. — link
20.02.202507:41
Partial TP’d some BTC longs here
Added some shorts
Positioning neutral
Added some shorts
Positioning neutral
15.02.202500:54
BTC LT skews are back in bullish territory 👀
08.02.202501:25
Risk off signal fired : LT Skews
No longs / Only shorts
Closed bera long at b/e
No longs / Only shorts
Closed bera long at b/e
24.01.202503:54
23.02.202522:20
2025-02-24 Daily Vol
g-monday-m 🌞
I’ll be honest, doesn’t look great this week…
$1.5b Bybit Hack and ETH
- ETH/BTC had a strong weekend since the hack
- Bybit having to buy back the ETH they lost seems to be supporting it.
- The missing 20% has been bought over the weekend; $300m, But ETH/BTC continues showing strength afterwards. https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1893594968150688176
- Perhaps ETH has finally run out of sellers?
- The chart does look quite bottomey after a 2.5 year down trend relative to BTC
- But the elevated CME OI still makes me hesitent
Macro
- SPX hard rejection off ATHs 6160 again, while VIX also up 20% and yields falling point to possible growth scares?
- When VIX spikes and yields fall together, the S&P 500 tends to underperform over the next 5 trading days. https://x.com/i/grok/share/teWxNyfOtVF5Faz5e9wxFSUVt
- Gold : Strong up trend.
- Gold price drivers : DXY seems peaked. Geopoliticial risk : Ukraine ending and Europe protection ending. Tariffs on Gold?
- Yen : Inflation is 4%, Yen should continue to appreciate, bad for liquidity.
BTC
- Coinbase TWAP was switched on through Sunday, but the price continues to fall
- BTC very linked to macro flows rn, so feels risk off for the week.
- A Saylor announcement of him buying 2b worth, will only drop prices further
- The key is to watch for bids on this drop.
Positioning : Neutral/Short
- Long BTC
- Short SUI XRP WIF
- Long Alt : Small TAO and AI16Z
g-monday-m 🌞
I’ll be honest, doesn’t look great this week…
$1.5b Bybit Hack and ETH
- ETH/BTC had a strong weekend since the hack
- Bybit having to buy back the ETH they lost seems to be supporting it.
- The missing 20% has been bought over the weekend; $300m, But ETH/BTC continues showing strength afterwards. https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1893594968150688176
- Perhaps ETH has finally run out of sellers?
- The chart does look quite bottomey after a 2.5 year down trend relative to BTC
- But the elevated CME OI still makes me hesitent
Macro
- SPX hard rejection off ATHs 6160 again, while VIX also up 20% and yields falling point to possible growth scares?
- When VIX spikes and yields fall together, the S&P 500 tends to underperform over the next 5 trading days. https://x.com/i/grok/share/teWxNyfOtVF5Faz5e9wxFSUVt
- Gold : Strong up trend.
- Gold price drivers : DXY seems peaked. Geopoliticial risk : Ukraine ending and Europe protection ending. Tariffs on Gold?
- Yen : Inflation is 4%, Yen should continue to appreciate, bad for liquidity.
BTC
- Coinbase TWAP was switched on through Sunday, but the price continues to fall
- BTC very linked to macro flows rn, so feels risk off for the week.
- A Saylor announcement of him buying 2b worth, will only drop prices further
- The key is to watch for bids on this drop.
Positioning : Neutral/Short
- Long BTC
- Short SUI XRP WIF
- Long Alt : Small TAO and AI16Z
21.02.202517:35
Positioning : Neutral
Long BTC
Short ETH and XRP
Small dip buys
SOL TAO AI16Z
POPCAT BONK
Long BTC
Short ETH and XRP
Small dip buys
SOL TAO AI16Z
POPCAT BONK
20.02.202501:31
14.02.202508:31
Id watch for aggressive eth selling sunday us time before taking directional bets to see if this hypothesis is correct.
05.02.202502:27
23.01.202501:45
Aaaand its gone again
Looks like we wait for BTC to start trending again
Looks like we wait for BTC to start trending again
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