TheNebulator
Takes on news, politics and the universe. Don't call me a journalist.
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Канал түзүлгөн датаСіч 14, 2021
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Трав 28, 2024"TheNebulator" тобундагы акыркы жазуулар
12.05.202521:43
I was not in Moscow for May 9, and more's the pity. I know people who went, though, and they said it was spectacular. It certainly seemed so in live feeds, and not a single Ukrodrone came even close to spoil the festivities. Though not for the lack of trying; Russian air defenses just worked overtime.
Once the dust from the passing tanks settled, it was clear that Putin means to finish the business with Ukraine on Russia's terms. It seems obvious to me that his late-night offer of negotiations comes from a place of restraint, rather than weakness. Not sure that its intended recipients got the message, but there you go.
More importantly, Russia just hosted leaders from all over the world, who made a point of coming to Moscow for Victory Day. Some of them had to openly defy the shrieking harpies of Brussels, who could do nothing but seethe in impotent rage. They can still inflict harm, but mostly on their own people and a few unfortunate neighbors, like Serbia — not so much on Russia anymore.
And so they press on, in their delusions. We'll see what happens on Thursday in Istanbul, though I don't expect much. I do expect things to get busier on the battlefield.
Once the dust from the passing tanks settled, it was clear that Putin means to finish the business with Ukraine on Russia's terms. It seems obvious to me that his late-night offer of negotiations comes from a place of restraint, rather than weakness. Not sure that its intended recipients got the message, but there you go.
More importantly, Russia just hosted leaders from all over the world, who made a point of coming to Moscow for Victory Day. Some of them had to openly defy the shrieking harpies of Brussels, who could do nothing but seethe in impotent rage. They can still inflict harm, but mostly on their own people and a few unfortunate neighbors, like Serbia — not so much on Russia anymore.
And so they press on, in their delusions. We'll see what happens on Thursday in Istanbul, though I don't expect much. I do expect things to get busier on the battlefield.
08.05.202518:39
Xi Jinping wrote a rather interesting opinion piece for the official newspaper of the Russian government ahead of his trip to Moscow, about the two countries needing to resist Western historical revisionism of WW2, because they were its biggest battlefields AND greatest victims.
He makes it clear that China and Russia see themselves not as revisionist powers, but guardians of the actual post-WW2 order against the rogue West.
If you think about it for a moment, it's downright criminal how the Anglo-American history simply erased China from WW2, even though it was the Japanese invasion that directly led to the confrontation with the US (from "Flying Tigers" to the oil embargo that triggered Pearl Harbor), which gave FDR the opportunity to get involved in Europe that he wanted for so long.
Western histories of WW2, from Churchill onward, focus on places like North Africa, Normandy and the Pacific, while barely acknowledging the Japanese war on China or the entire Eastern Front. Meanwhile, the Soviets dealt with something like 85-90% of total German military strength, but there's hardly any modern movies about it (except the rather terrible 'Enemy at the Gates') so...
He makes it clear that China and Russia see themselves not as revisionist powers, but guardians of the actual post-WW2 order against the rogue West.
If you think about it for a moment, it's downright criminal how the Anglo-American history simply erased China from WW2, even though it was the Japanese invasion that directly led to the confrontation with the US (from "Flying Tigers" to the oil embargo that triggered Pearl Harbor), which gave FDR the opportunity to get involved in Europe that he wanted for so long.
Western histories of WW2, from Churchill onward, focus on places like North Africa, Normandy and the Pacific, while barely acknowledging the Japanese war on China or the entire Eastern Front. Meanwhile, the Soviets dealt with something like 85-90% of total German military strength, but there's hardly any modern movies about it (except the rather terrible 'Enemy at the Gates') so...
06.05.202512:28
That the Baltic Fleet is now convoying merchantmen suggests that Russia is strongly signaling the NATO chihuahuas not to engage in any piracy.
Better late than never, but it continues to amaze me that a Russian (Pavlov) literally discovered conditioning, yet his countrymen are so bad at applying it.
Better late than never, but it continues to amaze me that a Russian (Pavlov) literally discovered conditioning, yet his countrymen are so bad at applying it.
04.05.202513:53
I’ve always known Hitler wanted an alliance with England. Never realized it had been kind of mutual: https://www.kitklarenberg.com/p/the-anglo-nazi-global-empire-that
02.05.202518:02
Declaring AfD a "right-wing extremist" organization is but a step away from banning them outright, and nothing says "you can't vote your way out of this" harder than setting up a Merz-Scholz coalition to prevent any AfD impact on government.
The weirdest thing is that the Trump administration has repeatedly warned against this — first via Vance, then via diplomats (UN vote on cooperation with the Council of Europe) and now Marco Rubio is tweeting "Germany should reverse course."
To which the offended liversausages groveling before Zelensky will probably puff up and say "zees is unacceptable!" like Boris Pistorius did in Munich. Because they no longer understand their place in the "rules-based order."
How... convenient that the US already has bases and troops in Germany, don't you think?
The weirdest thing is that the Trump administration has repeatedly warned against this — first via Vance, then via diplomats (UN vote on cooperation with the Council of Europe) and now Marco Rubio is tweeting "Germany should reverse course."
To which the offended liversausages groveling before Zelensky will probably puff up and say "zees is unacceptable!" like Boris Pistorius did in Munich. Because they no longer understand their place in the "rules-based order."
How... convenient that the US already has bases and troops in Germany, don't you think?
02.05.202517:58
First Romania, then France, now Germany: EUropoors have embraced lawfare in order to defend their stranglehold on power against the populists. It doesn't matter whether you like what the populists are advocating; that ought to be decided by ballot, not by bullet. Or bogus lawsuits.
02.05.202512:38
The US is throwing Ukraine under the bus. This is the inescapable conclusion of what Marco Rubio and JD Vance told Fox News yesterday, and what State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce told reporters at the Foggy Bottom briefing:
Make no mistake, the US is being unusually blunt with a message to Zelensky: you're done, over, kaputt, we're out.
He needs to surrender while he still can. He won't, but he should.
...we will not be the mediators. That is what I mentioned on Tuesday, and the nature of how this would change is we would not – we certainly are still committed to it and will help and do what we can. But we are not going to fly around the world at the drop of a hat to mediate meetings, that it is now between the two parties, and now – now is the time that they need to present and develop concrete ideas about how this conflict is going to end. It’s going to be up to them.
Make no mistake, the US is being unusually blunt with a message to Zelensky: you're done, over, kaputt, we're out.
He needs to surrender while he still can. He won't, but he should.
30.04.202509:57
Armchair Warlord has a very interesting take on Russia's restraint, that I have not considered before: They are denying the Ukrainians their victimhood:
By being surgical, rather than blunt, the Russians are "playing an extremely long game here and setting conditions to build the postwar world they want to see - one which involves a lasting peace with Ukraine and a reconstruction of deep cultural ties," says Warlord.
This certainly explains the way this is being fought. As a Serb who has barely survived the post-WW2 social experiment called "brotherhood and unity", I have deep misgivings about the possibility of brotherly coexistence with an ethnos literally defining itself as anti-you and determined to kill you. But if anyone can pull this off it's the Russians, and the alternative is downright grimdark.
in fighting a clean war, even when many people in the Russian commentariat have howled for blood and not without reason, the Russians are doing something far deeper, and far smarter, than just giving their "fraternal nation" a few dozen extra chances to shape up out of Sovok-boomer sentimentality. They are, in fact, sawing away at one of the core pillars of the constructed identity of Maidan-era Ukraine.
By being surgical, rather than blunt, the Russians are "playing an extremely long game here and setting conditions to build the postwar world they want to see - one which involves a lasting peace with Ukraine and a reconstruction of deep cultural ties," says Warlord.
This certainly explains the way this is being fought. As a Serb who has barely survived the post-WW2 social experiment called "brotherhood and unity", I have deep misgivings about the possibility of brotherly coexistence with an ethnos literally defining itself as anti-you and determined to kill you. But if anyone can pull this off it's the Russians, and the alternative is downright grimdark.
29.04.202517:16
Russia won't make a bad peace with Ukraine, and here's why — that's the title of my long(er)-form piece on Substack that I promised you a little while back.
I feel very confident in this prediction, but I have to admit my confidence is not at 100%. Mostly because the Russians have repeatedly surprised (and occasionally disappointed) me over the years, so I can't really consider myself a "Russia-whisperer."
For the records, I still think the Kremlin is making a major mistake by not violently deterring Ukrainian terrorism. Notice, for example, that graphically assassinating that treacherous helicopter pilot in Spain has had a very salutary effect since.
I feel very confident in this prediction, but I have to admit my confidence is not at 100%. Mostly because the Russians have repeatedly surprised (and occasionally disappointed) me over the years, so I can't really consider myself a "Russia-whisperer."
For the records, I still think the Kremlin is making a major mistake by not violently deterring Ukrainian terrorism. Notice, for example, that graphically assassinating that treacherous helicopter pilot in Spain has had a very salutary effect since.
26.04.202515:24
Kursk has been completely liberated. Ukraine’s invasion is no more. 80,000 casualties later, Zelensky has nothing to show for it. Not to mention the irreplaceable Western tech.
If that was Kiev’s version of the “battle of the Bulge,” we’re likely to see a replay of the bunker meme scene in a couple months or so.
Of course, there is still the possibility of ending this peacefully. But Trump’s proposal is nonsense and Zelensky is unwilling to entertain it anyway. So the fighting will continue until someone wins.
If that was Kiev’s version of the “battle of the Bulge,” we’re likely to see a replay of the bunker meme scene in a couple months or so.
Of course, there is still the possibility of ending this peacefully. But Trump’s proposal is nonsense and Zelensky is unwilling to entertain it anyway. So the fighting will continue until someone wins.
24.04.202518:07
Pay less attention to what Trump says and more to what he does (or doesn't do). Yes, I know, the previous post was about his words, but still. He's trying all the rhetorical negotiating tricks of Team Narrative against Russia, the ultimate Team Reality player (often at its own peril). There is a non-zero chance it might work, but it's very slim.
That which cannot go on, will not. And Project Ukraine has just about outlived its usefulness. I don't know precisely how Trump will shape the narrative that will enable him to throw Zelensky in the trash; all I know is that it will happen sooner or later, and that he sure seems like he's trying right now.
That which cannot go on, will not. And Project Ukraine has just about outlived its usefulness. I don't know precisely how Trump will shape the narrative that will enable him to throw Zelensky in the trash; all I know is that it will happen sooner or later, and that he sure seems like he's trying right now.
Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:
Donald J. Trump
23.04.202518:08
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is boasting on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that, “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There’s nothing to talk about here.” This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama, and is not even a point of discussion. Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired? The area also houses, for many years before “the Obama handover,” major Russian submarine bases. It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but have much to do with wanting to save, on average, five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, who are dying for no reason whatsoever. The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the “killing field,” and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, GET IT DONE. I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS, that would have never started if I were President!
23.04.202518:08
I think Trump just threw Zelya under the bus.
23.04.202510:50
Politico paints a fascinating picture of Europe that is entirely dependent on America (or the GAE?) in military matters. However self-serving, the story admits an uncomfortable truth: not only is the entire military infrastructure of the continent (well, its Western half) built around the assumption of American hegemony and US "cavalry" riding to the rescue, the Euros lack even the most basic military capabilities should the Americans actually withdraw.
No tank trailers, fuel tankers, heavy transport planes, even ramps for rail loading of flatbed cars for heavies. No intel, or cyber capabilities. Nothing. The Euros are basically hangers-on at best, dead weight at worst, fit only to man the "defense" line until the Americans arrive.
Set aside the fevered dream of a "Russian invasion" (the April 1 joke in which "Putin" tells the Germans they aren't worth the expense of occupation comes to mind). This is an admission that the supposedly wealthy mega-state with something like 400 million people is militarily useless.
I believe this is by design, that the US has for decades nurtured a learned helplessness and path dependency in order to maintain hegemony, but isn't even capable of articulating as to why anymore. Nor are the EUrocrats able to conceive of an actual independent military posture, let alone achieve it with their existing industrial base and economic posture. Given time and ingenuity, perhaps — but both of those are in short supply at the moment.
Keep this in mind if and when the US "walks away" from the GAE.
No tank trailers, fuel tankers, heavy transport planes, even ramps for rail loading of flatbed cars for heavies. No intel, or cyber capabilities. Nothing. The Euros are basically hangers-on at best, dead weight at worst, fit only to man the "defense" line until the Americans arrive.
Set aside the fevered dream of a "Russian invasion" (the April 1 joke in which "Putin" tells the Germans they aren't worth the expense of occupation comes to mind). This is an admission that the supposedly wealthy mega-state with something like 400 million people is militarily useless.
I believe this is by design, that the US has for decades nurtured a learned helplessness and path dependency in order to maintain hegemony, but isn't even capable of articulating as to why anymore. Nor are the EUrocrats able to conceive of an actual independent military posture, let alone achieve it with their existing industrial base and economic posture. Given time and ingenuity, perhaps — but both of those are in short supply at the moment.
Keep this in mind if and when the US "walks away" from the GAE.
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Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:
DD Geopolitics
23.04.202509:38
🇺🇸💬🇷🇺🇺🇦 Vance claims they have issued a "very fair proposal" to Russia and Ukraine, and they need to either agree to it, or the US will walk away
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🔴 @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising
06.05.202512:28
That the Baltic Fleet is now convoying merchantmen suggests that Russia is strongly signaling the NATO chihuahuas not to engage in any piracy.
Better late than never, but it continues to amaze me that a Russian (Pavlov) literally discovered conditioning, yet his countrymen are so bad at applying it.
Better late than never, but it continues to amaze me that a Russian (Pavlov) literally discovered conditioning, yet his countrymen are so bad at applying it.
Көбүрөөк функцияларды ачуу үчүн кириңиз.
