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Multipolar Market

Crypto, trade & finance news with a grain of humor
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Барлық жазбалар

20.02.202518:02

Japanese Business Expects the Worst from Trump

The economy of the United States’ largest ally in Asia fears that a tariff war will not benefit Japan, according to representatives of major companies surveyed by Reuters. The US is the largest direct foreign investor in Japan, while China is its largest manufacturing base.

Approximately 86% of respondents stated that Trump’s policy measures would negatively impact the business environment, while the rest anticipate a positive effect. A month ago, pessimists on this issue stood at 73%. The most harmful factor, cited by 72%, is trade policy, including additional tariffs, while 26% pointed to worsening US-China relations. Among companies that viewed Trump’s measures as positive, 37% highlighted deregulation and tax cuts, and another 37% emphasized incentives for fossil fuel production.

In February, Trump held a meeting with the Japanese Prime Minister, urging Japan to invest in US energy and technology sectors. Trump insists that Japan must eliminate its $68.5 billion trade surplus with the US. This comes despite Japan holding the largest foreign direct investment position in the US in 2023.

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19.02.202521:03

Elon Musk Finds $4.7 Trillion in "Gray" Payments at the US Department of the Treasury

According to Musk, payments totaling this amount were sent without specifying a Treasury account symbol, which indicates the basis and budget line under which the funds were allocated.

Musk believes that part of these payments could have been used by Democrats for their budget embezzlement schemes.

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19.02.202517:00

🇺🇦VS🇺🇸
Ukraine Attacks Facilities of Other Countries, Including the US

The Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked the "Kropotkinskaya" pumping station in the southern region of Russia. It is part of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, which transports oil from Kazakhstan to Europe. The actual shareholders are Kazakhstan and the American company Chevron.

Supplies through the pipeline have already been reduced by a third — the main financial damage has been incurred by Kazakhstan and the US.

The twist is that sanctions against Russia make it impossible to supply equipment for repairs. Now, either the sanctions must be violated, or Kazakhstan and the US will be left without profits.

Interestingly, this happened immediately after the Munich Security Conference. Draw your own conclusions.

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18.02.202522:03

Rising Energy Costs Force Estonia's Largest Plant, Estonian Cell, to Halt Operations

Estonian Cell, the country's largest factory, has suspended operations due to skyrocketing electricity prices. "We stopped production last Tuesday, and now every day at lunchtime, we wait for the next day's price," lamented the company’s financial director.

But, Baltic and EU officials made quite a show cutting off!

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18.02.202521:03

Berliner Zeitung: EU Prepares €700 Billion Aid Package for Ukraine

According to the Berliner Zeitung, the EU is preparing a record €700 billion aid package for Ukraine. The plan is being kept secret until the Bundestag elections, as revealing that 15% of Germany’s GDP will go to Ukraine might shock voters and influence their decisions. However, after the elections, Annalena Baerbock is expected to announce this unprecedented support program.

The EU doesn’t have this money — it will simply be printed, shifting inflation directly onto Germans and the rest of the EU. It sounds like the idea of a madman, but from the EU, anything is possible — they could stretch the package over 20 years, issuing €40 billion annually straight off the printing press.

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18.02.202520:02

Analysts at Bubblemaps Link LIBRA and MELANIA Memecoins to the Same Team

Bubblemaps analysts believe the memecoins LIBRA and MELANIA were launched by the same group. Transaction chain similarities revealed that wallet address 0xcEA first made $2.4 million from the Melania launch and later received $6 million for Libra. Both tokens crashed within eight hours of their launches as insiders withdrew $107 million in liquidity, causing Libra’s price to plummet by 94%. Melania lost 99% of its value just four hours after launch.

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18.02.202519:02

Where’s the Gold?

The London gold market has faced significant challenges in recent months due to a surge in demand for physical gold, leading to delays in fulfilling delivery obligations. Adding to the pressure, following Donald Trump's election victory, demand for gold deliveries on the COMEX exchange skyrocketed. As a result, 393 tons of gold were transferred from LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) vaults in London to New York, boosting U.S. gold reserves to 926 tons.

This spike in demand has created a physical gold shortage in London, where much of the metal is tied up in paper markets (futures and contracts) rather than being available for actual delivery. The delays have raised concerns among investors, as LBMA had previously published reserve data to assure market reliability. However, the current issues highlight that not all reported reserves are readily available for immediate delivery.

This situation undermines confidence in London’s status as a global hub for precious metals trading. Compounding the problem, Chinese banks began offering clients the option to hold assets in gold instead of yuan starting in November 2024, driving up demand for physical gold in China. To meet this demand, China has been aggressively purchasing gold from London, further exacerbating the supply crunch.

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18.02.202518:01

Bank of England Defaults on Technical Gold Deliveries — Paper Gold Exposed

The Bank of England has defaulted on its technical gold deliveries, revealing that its gold reserves existed only on paper. The gold market is in turmoil as prices hit historic highs and investors purchase gold at record rates, including from vaults in England. This is where the issue arose — there’s no gold to be found.

The Bank of England issued a statement saying it could deliver gold to clients only within 4-8 weeks, which is illegal under the law requiring delivery within 14 days.

Analysts are shocked: the state claimed to hold gold for which money had been paid, but now it turns out the vaults are empty. Investor Andrew Maguire even addressed the British Parliament, questioning why the government is ignoring the gold market default.

The whereabouts of the gold remain unknown. Instead of using the term "default," British media have adopted the euphemism "shortfall." Business as usual.

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Қайта жіберілді:

American Оbserver

18.02.202517:06

🇷🇺Russia’s LNG Export Revenues Increase Under Sanctions

Russian revenues from gaz exports to Europe rose by 18% month-on-month — facilitated by a massive 34% surge in imports of oil products.

In anticipation of a reduction in Russia’s crude exports due to vessel sanctions targeting mostly crude oil tankers, there has been a surge in oil refining in Russia aimed towards increasing global exports.

Europe says it will not survive on without Russian natural product.

In January, France’s imports of Russian LNG saw a 27% month-on-month rise, even as the country’s total imports grew by a mere 4.5%.

Over a third of France’s total LNG imports in January came from Russia and were the highest import volumes in 12 months.

So-called hadow tankers transported 84% of the total volume of Russian seaborne crude oil in January.

A lower price cap of USD 30 per barrel would have slashed Russia’s oil export revenue by 24% (EUR 79 bn) from the start of the sanctions in December 2022 until the end of January 2025.

In January alone, a USD 30 per barrel price cap would have slashed Russian revenues by 23%.

In January, Russia’s monthly fossil fuel export revenues raised un 7.8% month-on-month up to 987 mn per day.

Revenues from seaborne crude oil surged by 13% month-on-month to EUR 531 mn per day, despite a mere 2% rise in export volumes.

#Russia #LNGrevenue #increase

📱 American Оbserver - Stay up to date on all important events 🇺🇸

18.02.202516:04

Crisis in Washington DC

The U.S. capital is facing tough times amid Trump's shock therapy. The average cost of housing in Washington, D.C., has plummeted by 20% since November 2024—from $700,000 to $560,000. At the same time, the number of vacant homes has sharply increased.

In suburban areas surrounding Washington, the number of homes being sold urgently has surged by 60-80%. Residents are fleeing the city to escape mass layoffs, with tens of thousands of government employees already laid off—a figure that could soon rise into the hundreds of thousands.

Unemployment in the District of Columbia is also rising rapidly, plunging the de facto U.S. capital into a deep recession. The crisis is also hitting neighboring states hard; Maryland, for instance, is experiencing worsening financial troubles, with local municipal bonds now trading at junk levels.

Counties adjacent to Washington, such as Fairfax—among the wealthiest in the U.S.—have long benefited from federal budget inflows. With Trump cutting off this flow, problems are emerging. As for Washington itself, the city is already overwhelmed by homelessness and migrants, with crime rates soaring.

Washington, D.C., is setting new records for car thefts. Recently, a Democrat congressman had his car stolen at gunpoint just five minutes from the Capitol. Many lawmakers now sleep in Congress buildings out of fear of venturing outside. If funding continues to dwindle, Washington risks becoming fully ghettoized, resembling Detroit.

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18.02.202515:04

Argentinian President Javier Milei Faces Impeachment Threat Over Crypto Fraud Allegations Following a Deleted X Post

President Javier Milei is under threat of impeachment due to suspicions of crypto fraud tied to a tweet he deleted just hours after posting it.

- Recently, Milei promoted a meme coin called LIBRA on X, claiming it would boost Argentina's economy, small businesses, and startups. The coin’s market capitalization surged to $4.5 billion, with its price reaching $4.50 before crashing to $0.50 within minutes.
- Crypto analysts determined the project was likely a scam, where developers sold their stakes at peak value, pocketing approximately $87 million while leaving investors with nothing. Hours later, Milei deleted the post, later claiming he had no connection to LIBRA and that the tweet was posted in the same manner as daily support for entrepreneurs launching projects in Argentina. However, disgruntled investors refused to believe him.
- Former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, Milei’s main political rival, accused him of defrauding thousands of investors who trusted him with millions. Argentina’s anti-corruption agency has launched an investigation into whether Milei was involved in any wrongdoing.
- The Argentinian Chamber of Financial Technologies stated that LIBRA was most likely a scam. In response, opposition party deputy Leandro Santoro called the scandal a national embarrassment requiring an impeachment request.
- Milei himself was forced to create a special investigative team to analyze every detail of the incident.

Play stupid games — win stupid prizes.

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13.02.202506:56

Can China Afford to Stop Exporting Goods to the U.S.?

Today, increased 10% tariffs on imports of Chinese goods to the U.S. have taken effect, with no postponement granted — unlike for Canada and Mexico. Xi Jinping did not call Washington during the two-day window provided by Trump.

Some argue that Xi simply needed more time to adhere to diplomatic protocol. However, why should Xi even bother calling? Trump makes decisions based solely on his own judgment, ignoring advice from those around him, so the outcome was predictable.

China’s reliance on exporting goods to the U.S. is now minimal — accounting for just 2.8% of its GDP, a figure that continues to shrink. With trade with Russia rapidly growing, Beijing could potentially stop shipping goods to the U.S. altogether. Meanwhile, one of Trump's closest allies, Elon Musk, is feeling the pain. Tesla shares have plummeted 10.45% since the start of the year. The company heavily depends on manufacturing cars in China; while production exists in the U.S., many components must still be shipped from China. Moreover, production costs in the U.S. are far higher than in China.

Trump is well aware of Tesla’s declining market capitalization, which is why he recently told journalists that Musk has already lost. The question remains: how will Musk compensate for Tesla’s losses, including the impact of reduced U.S. incentives for electric vehicle purchases? Musk has drawn closer to the U.S. budget, portraying himself as a leading anti-corruption advocate in America...

In reality, China has accepted Trump’s challenge, and Musk stands to lose even more. Export controls are expanding to cover additional goods. China is effectively rejecting U.S. energy resources, agricultural products, and farm equipment. Who can replace these? There’s one large country nearby with similar exports...

According to reports, the U.S. and China are one step away from a full-scale trade war. But it’s simpler than that: Beijing is essentially telling Washington to go jump in a lake. And increasingly, so are many other countries around the world.

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13.02.202506:25

Zelenskyy Buys Hitler’s Residence for €14.2 Million

Vladimir Zelenskyy has reportedly purchased the "Eagle's Nest," a residence originally built for Adolf Hitler in the Bavarian Alps in 1937 as a 50th birthday gift. After World War II, it was decided not to destroy the property, and it was occasionally used for tours.

However, that has now changed. According to Folge dem Plan, the Eagle's Nest has been acquired by San Tomaso SRL for €14.2 million. San Tomaso SRL is one of Zelenskyy's offshore companies, revealed by the Panama Papers.

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12.02.202504:49

Musk Continues to Disrupt OpenAI

A group of investors led by Elon Musk has offered $97.4 billion for OpenAI, according to reports. While OpenAI has no intention of selling, as confirmed by Sam Altman, this very offer creates significant complications for the company and its stakeholders.

The issue lies in OpenAI’s unique structure — it is still owned by a nonprofit with its own board of directors. This arrangement already caused controversy in late 2023 when Sam Altman was ousted without informing Microsoft, one of its primary investors. Imagine the shock of having invested over $10 billion only to learn about the CEO’s removal from the news.

Following this incident, OpenAI's next major funding round came with a condition: the company must transition to a commercial entity within two years. Otherwise, it would be obligated to return the $6 billion already invested.

However, transitioning isn’t straightforward — OpenAI’s commercial arm needs to be bought out from under the nonprofit’s control. Before Musk’s offer, such a deal could have been negotiated relatively easily for a smaller sum. Now, things are far more complicated.

If the nonprofit board agrees to a lower offer, they’ll face scrutiny from multiple regulatory bodies that could block the transaction. And matching Musk’s proposal won’t be easy — his offer includes a promise to outbid any other investor at an equal or higher price.

This leaves OpenAI in a tough spot: either engage in a bidding war with Musk, draining investors’ funds, or face potential lawsuits. Cancelling the transition to a commercial organization would leave OpenAI $6 billion in the red with uncertain future investment prospects.

There are still many unknowns, but it seems we’ll be discussing this new OpenAI drama for quite some time.

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12.02.202504:48

Donald Trump: Ukraine Agrees to Pay the U.S. $500 Billion in Natural Resources

According to Donald Trump, Ukraine has agreed to compensate the U.S. with $500 billion worth of its natural resources in exchange for military aid already provided — not for new assistance. Trump emphasized that these resources will be claimed by the U.S. after the conflict ends.

Experts estimate that the U.S. has invested $200 billion in the conflict it allegedly provoked, set to yield a return of $500 billion — a profitability rate of 150%.

Learn from this.

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27.01.202513:58

30.01.202515:05

Let’s Summarize

In 2018, China was entirely dependent on Western technologies—telecom towers were supplied by Ericsson, GPUs and chips for neural networks by NVIDIA, and cars by Volkswagen and other European manufacturers. In 2018, the U.S. began imposing sanctions on China, which were further strengthened under Biden. As a result:

Huawei now leads the global telecommunications equipment market with a 31.3% share in 2023.

BYD is the world’s top producer of electric vehicles, surpassing Tesla in 2024.

Huawei has overtaken Google in smartphone processor shipments in 2024.

Xiaomi is preparing to launch its own smartphone processor by 2025, expected to rival Apple Silicon.

Huawei’s Ascend 910B chip is already just 5% behind NVIDIA’s AI products and 70% cheaper.

No matter how you look at it, the U.S. sanctions have backfired—they gave China the motivation to develop its own products, and now the U.S. is watching trillions in market capitalization evaporate from its stock exchanges.

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13.02.202506:56

29.01.202510:37

19.02.202517:00

19.02.202521:03

29.01.202500:00

Is the AI Bubble Bursting?

U.S. tech giants are pouring hundreds of billions into AI, but a Chinese startup, DeepSeek, is making waves by achieving competitive results with far fewer resources. Skeptics claim DeepSeek is just a fine-tuned version of existing American models, but if its success stems from innovative algorithms, it could reshape global AI strategies.

This has sparked a narrative: Americans are overspending on massive data centers, while the Chinese are optimizing with efficiency. Sam Altman recently noted that U.S. firms lead in fundamental research, while Chinese companies refine existing models. However, U.S. tech giants face mounting financial pressure, with no clear path to profitability.

Two Paths:
- US Approach: Scale, universality, and heavy infrastructure investment.
Strengths: Powerful, versatile models.
Weaknesses: High costs and energy use.

- Chinese Approach: Efficiency, specialization, and optimization.
Strengths: Cost-effective, resource-efficient.
Weaknesses: Less universal, reliant on open-source.

The true potential of Chinese AI remains unclear, but the competition is intensifying. With unsustainable investments and unrealistic return expectations, the AI bubble may be collapsing. DeepSeek could be a trigger, but the groundwork was laid by overhyped multipliers and resource concentration in Big Tech.

AI will continue to advance, but the era of trillion-dollar spending may be ending. Innovation will persist—just more efficiently.

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27.01.202517:02

Italy Ready to Return to Nuclear Energy

Last week, Italy’s Minister of Energy Security, Gilberto Pichetto, announced plans to revive the country’s nuclear energy program. According to the minister, the government is already drafting a plan for the active construction of nuclear power plants across the nation.

"Returning to nuclear energy is a step we can no longer afford to postpone," Pichetto emphasized in an interview with the Italian business daily Il Sole 24 Ore.

Italy was one of the first countries in the world to shut down all its nuclear power plants in 1987 following the Chernobyl disaster. In 2011, a referendum to lift the ban was held, but it failed to gain public support. However, the current government, led by Giorgia Meloni, views nuclear power as a viable solution for ensuring energy security. The moratorium on nuclear energy could potentially be lifted in the near future.

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30.01.202521:04

The Guardian: Ukraine Shocked by Suspension of U.S. Foreign Aid

The Guardian reports that Ukraine has been stunned by the sudden suspension of U.S. foreign aid, which halted a range of projects in the country overnight, from veteran assistance to anti-corruption efforts. According to a Guardian source, Ukraine requested an exemption for at least some of the programs but was denied. Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine would try to find funding for particularly important projects on its own.

Additionally, it became known yesterday that Trump's order to freeze aid remains in effect despite rumors of its cancellation by a federal court.

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13.02.202506:25

01.02.202500:03

⚙️ How DeepSeek 'Diverted' Nvidia Chips Through Singapore

Sales of Nvidia in Singapore have SOARED BY 740% — and the U.S. suspects that the Chinese startup DeepSeek is secretly buying banned GPUs through the island. Elon Musk has already stated: the company "clearly has ~50,000 H100 chips" (each costing $30,000), which they are hiding due to sanctions.

Oddities:
1️⃣ In three quarters, Singapore "bought" $17.4 billion worth of chips from Nvidia — more than China ($11.6 billion);
2️⃣ In its reports, Nvidia admits: "chips for Singapore" are actually going to other countries;
3️⃣ But Singapore itself has only 99 data centers — fewer than in Poland.

Where the chips disappear to:
China is already importing more chips from Singapore than from the U.S. Everything points to a scheme: DeepSeek and other companies are circumventing sanctions by rerouting shipments through a "gray zone."

What it threatens:
If the U.S. blocks Singapore, NVIDIA WILL LOSE 20% OF ITS REVENUE. And China will gain a powerful trump card in the AI race. An investigation has begun — now markets and innovations hang by a thread.

The irony: Singapore, a tiny island with no AI ambitions, has become the main hole in the sanctions net.

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18.02.202518:01

04.02.202500:01

Speaker of the Lithuanian Parliament: We Hope China Will Take the First Step to Restore Relations

A classic move from the Baltic tigers. In 2021, Lithuania, seeking to please the U.S., opened the first European embassy for Taiwan as an independent state. In response, China withdrew its ambassador and closed its embassy in Lithuania. Subsequently, China removed Lithuania from its list of trading partners, banning all exports and imports — even components of Lithuanian origin were prohibited from entering China. This forced the EU to shut down factories in Lithuania.

Later, the U.S. canceled grants for the Baltic states, excluded them from the "white list" of strategic partners, and now deports their citizens at the same level as Colombians and Ecuadorians. Lithuania is now seeking to restore relations with China but has encountered a colossal mistake.

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03.02.202518:03

20 Years in Prison for Using DeepSeek: Republicans Introduce Bill to Ban the Use of Chinese Neural Networks

Republicans have introduced a bill that would make the use of any Chinese neural networks illegal. Key points of the proposed legislation include:
- It will be prohibited to use models developed by Chinese laboratories, colleges, or companies.
- It will also be forbidden to distribute open-source models in a way that allows their use by Chinese entities (ironically).
- Violations of the ban could result in fines ranging from $1 million to 20 years in prison.

The cradle of democracy is taking strides toward becoming a dictatorship.

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18.02.202515:04

Көбірек мүмкіндіктерді ашу үшін кіріңіз.