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Demographics Now and Then

Channel on Demographic Trends & Related Global Developments

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Канал құрылған күніDec 09, 2023

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May 25, 2024

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"Demographics Now and Then" тобындағы соңғы жазбалар

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23.04.202509:39

This chart clearly shows how large the coming German retirement wave will be. Would not be surprised if German companies attempt to recruit graduates from American Universities by 2030. Germany buffeted by a triple crisis. Demographic, economic, and in the energy sector.

23.04.202509:33

Germany headed for huge retirement wave from 2025-2035. It is occurring at the same time Germany’s fertility rate takes a turn for the worst (falling towards 1.3) & is struggling to attract skilled immigrants from Eastern and Southern Europe.

20.04.202512:43

India’s population to top out at absolutely massive 1 billion 600 million+ people. That is ~200 million more people than China had at its peak. This is impressive as China is also more than twice as large as India in terms of area. India’s population 2050>all Africa today.

This 1.6 billion population estimate also accounts for India’s falling fertility rate. Population momentum will get them there. India to likely have population bigger than the European Union, United States, Japan, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, Thailand, & South Korea combined.

20.04.202512:42

The years ahead will be those of dramatic change. Think it’s unlikely US tariffs will reduce Chinese dominance in the EV field. If anything EU reducing tariffs on Chinese EVs (or eliminating them altogether)will hyper-charge them & may destroy Tesla market share in EU further.

Chinese EV makers know that they need to look to foreign markets. Even though the EU has major demographic problems too they are still a market looking to fully transition from ICE vehicles to EVs by the 2030s-2040s. Chinese EV firms will also look to the rest of Asia.

BUT Chinese EV markers need to capture most of EU, other Asian, & part of developing world market by 2030s & 2040s just to make up for falling domestic demand due to horrible domestic demographic situation which will eventually reduce the number of customers by tens of millions.

20.04.202512:41

The age groups that consume the most in China (15-59) are falling like a rock. The age groups that that primarily save (60+) are in the midst of an epic expansion until 2050. The Chinese market is changing completely & shifting permanently away from gasoline.

20.04.202512:40

This should be a warning to all oil exporting countries. Chinese gasoline demand likely to fall sharply in the 2030s both due to EV adoption & major demographic shifts(& India won’t replace it). These countries need to diversify smart Norwegian way not foolish Saudi Arabian way.

20.04.202512:37

The University of Illinois Chicago used population projections to conclude that by 2100 the populations of some 15,000 US cities could dwindle to become “ghost towns” which they argue is a 12-23% decline. Already many cities fit this bill 1950-2020.

When you look at cities and towns in Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia, etc this is hardly dramatic news. Many cities and towns in the rust belt peaked in the 1940s or 1950s & have lost significant population since then. The rest of the U.S. will simply follow that trajectory.

Cities & towns in Texas, Florida, Arizona, Idaho, North Carolina, Nevada etc will still see population increases while most of the rest of the country (especially Illinois, Wisconsin, California, New Jersey (outside of Hasidic areas obviously), NY (ibid), sees decline.

https://t.co/cidY5yWKv1

11.04.202520:05

Polish births are down more than 10% in the first month of 2025. If this keeps up Polish TFR will fall to just 1.0 this year. That is lower than China or Japan. The rapidity of this decline has truly been stunning.

https://stat.gov.pl/en/topics/other-studies/informations-on-socio-economic-situation/statistical-bulletin-no-22025,4,172.html

10.04.202510:11

Growing fear that coming economic crisis could drive US TFR below 1.5 as early as 2026/2027. Don’t think that is likely to happen(probably a 30% chance)as of yet but it is now definitely a possibility. Have heard this not just in news but from work colleagues irl with 1-2 kids.

10.04.202510:10

Baby boomer empty nesters own twice as many of the 3+ bedroom homes in the US as millennials with kids. That’s not helping the demographic situation. Baby boomers argue they will lose out financially if they downsize their home due to 6+% mortgage rates.

That being said homes are FAR from the determining factor on TFR but they are one of a host of factors that move people away from larger families. Culture is of course the determinant factor but the housing situation certainly can make things even worse.

https://t.co/t2lylQVyHK

05.04.202511:40

Demographic decline has profound consequences. Italian fertility rates went below replacement in 1977, then fell below 1.5 in 1984, then 1.19 in 1995. Currently 1.18 & below 1.5 for more than 40 years!

02.04.202521:59

Largest province of Argentina (Buenos Aires, population almost 18 million) has a similar fertility rate to Japan, Italy, & China. This fall has been remarkable for its rapidity, like that for Argentina as a whole going from replacement level fertility in 2016 to below 1.3 today!

02.04.202501:54

There were just 369,922 Italian births in 2024. Fertility rate hit a new record low of ~1.18, lower than the past record low set in 1995 of just 1.19. With each passing year the population pyramid looks more & more like South Korea’s spinning top.

Births to two Italian citizen parents have been below 80% of total births for years now. Possibly below 75% of total last year.

30.03.202513:41

The disaster in Myanmar/Burma will likely speed up mass emigration of Bamars & other peoples of the country to Thailand. Would not be surprised if 2M emigrate over the next two years. Very very sad series of events, civil war, natural disaster, bad governance…