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Demographics Now and Then avatar

Demographics Now and Then

Channel on Demographic Trends & Related Global Developments
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Канал құрылған күніГруд 09, 2023
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Трав 25, 2024
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15.04.202523:59
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23.05.202423:59
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11.10.202423:59
12.4K1 жазбаның қамтуы
11.10.202423:59
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14.02.202523:59
9.42%ER
11.10.202423:59
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ЛИП '24ЖОВТ '24СІЧ '25КВІТ '25
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Demographics Now and Then танымал жазбалары

Барлық жазбалар
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10.04.202510:11
Growing fear that coming economic crisis could drive US TFR below 1.5 as early as 2026/2027. Don’t think that is likely to happen(probably a 30% chance)as of yet but it is now definitely a possibility.   Have heard this not just in news but from work colleagues irl with 1-2 kids.
10.04.202510:10
Baby boomer empty nesters own twice as many of the 3+ bedroom homes in the US as millennials with kids. That’s not helping the demographic situation.  Baby boomers argue they will lose out financially if they downsize their home due to 6+% mortgage rates.

That being said homes are FAR from the determining factor on TFR but they are one of a host of factors that move people away from larger families. Culture is of course the determinant factor but the housing situation certainly can make things even worse.

https://t.co/t2lylQVyHK
11.04.202520:05
Polish births are down more than 10% in the first month of 2025. If this keeps up Polish TFR will fall to just 1.0 this year. That is lower than China or Japan. The rapidity of this decline has truly been stunning.

https://stat.gov.pl/en/topics/other-studies/informations-on-socio-economic-situation/statistical-bulletin-no-22025,4,172.html
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27.03.202521:10
Non Hispanic Black births have a very low floor. IMHO NHB fertility will get as low as 1.1-1.2. Think Non Hispanic Whites have a significantly higher floor (of 1.3-1.4) as NHWs have breeder cult populations NHBs do not. We could see Non Hispanic Black TFR hit 1.35-1.4 in 2025.

https://x.com/charliesmirkley/status/1905316835949523446
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30.03.202500:50
22.8% of German women have no children and 25% only one over the course of their lifetime. German national fertility rate is 1.35.
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02.04.202501:54
There were just 369,922 Italian births in 2024. Fertility rate hit a new record low of ~1.18, lower than the past record low set in 1995 of just 1.19. With each passing year the population pyramid looks more & more like South Korea’s spinning top.

Births to two Italian citizen parents have been below 80% of total births for years now. Possibly below 75% of total last year.
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02.04.202521:59
Largest province of Argentina (Buenos Aires, population almost 18 million) has a similar fertility rate to Japan, Italy, & China.  This fall has been remarkable for its rapidity, like that for Argentina as a whole going from replacement level fertility in 2016 to below 1.3 today!
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05.04.202511:40
Demographic decline has profound consequences. Italian fertility rates went below replacement in 1977, then fell below 1.5 in 1984, then 1.19 in 1995. Currently 1.18 & below 1.5 for more than 40 years!
28.03.202512:39
As Germany embarking on debt spending it’s worth looking at their demographic prospects.  Largest postwar German cohort (born 1959-1968 1.2M+ births annually) retiring now, pension+medical costs to⬆️, fighting age population ⬇️.  Pop above 60 ~= to that 15-49 by 2050.
24.03.202511:41
The Turkish government has sounded the alarm as its TFR declines to below 1.5. 2025 has now been declared the “year of family”. While these public relations moves rarely move the needle at least they bring more attention to the issue.

They will probably see their population peak below 93M despite immigration. The fertility rate fell from 2.16 in 2015 to 1.71 in 2021 to just 1.47 last year. EU fertility rate average now just slightly less. No one immune from demographic crisis.

https://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/amp/turkiye-declares-2025-as-year-of-family-to-curb-declining-birth-rates-204447
24.03.202511:42
Republic of Korea faces rising threats in its neighborhood while its fighting age population(aged roughly 15-49)is plummeting dramatically from 57% in 2000 to just over 45% today to ~30% by 2050.  At the same time elderly population to double from under 20% today to 40% by 2050.
24.03.202511:40
Kiwis are emigrating in huge numbers. With that in mind New Zealand may have the highest Anglo fertility rate in the FVEY grouping of the U.S.,UK,Canada,Australia, & New Zealand. There was a net loss of 47,000 New Zealanders last year due to emigration.

While many Kiwis leave the number of births has not plummeted. In 2024 births even went up by ~1,400 to 58,300. Anglo Kiwis seem to have pretty decent TFR (similar to Australians) while immigrant TFR may follow a similar pattern to Australia. Main immigrant communities in NZ are from England, China, & India.

https://t.co/Z71AGmR6Q3
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30.03.202513:41
The disaster in Myanmar/Burma will likely speed up mass emigration of Bamars & other peoples of the country to Thailand. Would not be surprised if 2M emigrate over the next two years. Very very sad series of events, civil war, natural disaster, bad governance…
Көбірек мүмкіндіктерді ашу үшін кіріңіз.