🧩🕊️🧩 Negotiations. Positions of the Parties.
Stripping away the informational noise, let’s objectively assess the positions of the parties ahead of an important round of negotiations.
🇷🇺 Russia has the clearest and most stable position among all parties. In the spring of 2022, they entered into the unfavorable Istanbul agreements due to significant risks associated with uncertainty:
• How would the economy react to sanctions?
• What would be the societal reaction to mobilization?
• Could the military command system withstand challenges of a completely new level?
Consequently, they logically sought to avoid entering this risk zone. By 2025, such risks for Russia have diminished. The economy has adapted, the ruble has strengthened, and they maintain the initiative on the front lines.
An important bonus for Russia was Trump’s victory, which in itself limited the escalation potential of the coalition opposing Russia. Therefore, their only risk now is the need for a new wave of mobilization, which they are trying to avoid by relying on foreign fighters.
They also recognize American interest in joint projects and understand how crucial their neutrality will be in future confrontations between the U.S. and China.
Thus, we see no motivation for Russia to make significant compromises in the negotiation process at this time. This sentiment is echoed by all official representatives of Russia; one just needs to listen carefully and not misinterpret their words.
🇺🇦 Ukraine's position is also quite stable. The crisis period triggered by Trump's victory is coming to an end. Kyiv has navigated it relatively successfully.
The only political retreat for Ukraine has been Zelensky’s shift from a “war until victory” stance to an “unconditional ceasefire” position, which does not satisfy the Kremlin.
Domestically, Zelensky has managed to strengthen his position by involving Trump in negotiations over a potential “deal.” Many Ukrainians view Trump’s approach as unjust.
On the international front, Zelensky has demonstrated that he is a valuable asset for globalists and can provide further benefits.
This serves as a strong argument for continued support for Ukraine. Additionally, Zelensky shows that Ukraine can mobilize internal resources, such as drafting 18-year-olds, mobilizing women, and creating resistance centers in various regions.
🇪🇺 Globalists have little room to retreat. Beyond the Atlantic, they have no ground to stand on.
They need to maintain their European stronghold, and the narrative of a “war with Russia” serves them well. The economic situation in Europe continues to worsen. Therefore, it is essential to explain to people that Russia is to blame.
Consequently, continuing the war is their only viable option for consolidating society around this artificial narrative. Instead of stimulating the social sector, they are directing funds towards increasing arms production. For instance, in France, budgets for all ministries have been cut except for the Ministry of Defense.
🇺🇸 All of these conditions severely limit Trump’s options in addressing the Ukrainian issue. Yes, Trump can pressure Ukraine, but this pressure is clearly insufficient to persuade Zelensky to accept terms acceptable to both Trump and Putin.
The main trend in America right now is a shift towards China; thus, they need to exit this conflict as quickly as possible with minimal reputational losses.
Therefore, an information battle has erupted over who will be blamed for the failure of these negotiations. Zelensky wants either Putin or Trump to take the fall.
Consequently, Putin needs to demonstrate a peaceful disposition and show that it is Zelensky who is obstructing Donald. Meanwhile, Trump needs to exit the conflict with minimal reputational damage.
In conclusion, we find that achieving real progress tomorrow will be very challenging 🧩
