My current predictions in different scenarios for #BTC price action throughout 2025. Due to it being such an uncertain time there’s many different affecting factors however I think it’s mostly bullish, see for yourself 👇
1. Tariff Gridlock + Fed Neutrality
Probability: 40%
Backdrop:
•Tariffs on China (125%) and Canada/Mexico (25%) remain; no global retaliation yet.
•Fed holds off on further cuts; cautious monetary policy.
•DXY (Dollar Index) steady at 98–101.
BTC Impact:
•Market leans on “hedging” narrative.
•Retail and Asian capital flows in cautiously.
•Institutions hold long positions but remain conservative.
Price Path:
•Q2: BTC grinds to $90K–$95K
•Q3–Q4: Retests $100K–$110K
•Year-End: $105K–$115K
2. Escalation of Tariff War + Global Retaliation
Probability: 25%
Backdrop:
•Trump targets all 75 countries with tariffs (11%–50%).
•India, EU, Brazil, and others impose counter-tariffs.
•Supply chains disrupted, risk of stagflation rises.
BTC Impact:
•Strong “geopolitical bid” for BTC.
•Gold, BTC, commodities rally.
•Large inflows from global markets into crypto.
Price Path:
•Q2 spike: $100K+ test
•Q3: BTC surges to $120K–$140K
•Year-End: $140K–$160K (if ETF inflows accelerate)
3. Trump Adds Financial Restrictions on Crypto/Capital Flow
Probability: 15%
Backdrop:
•Trump invokes IEEPA to limit stablecoins or crypto transactions for national security.
•USDT, USDC come under scrutiny.
•Restrictions on cross-border crypto transfers.
BTC Impact:
•Immediate panic and sell-off over stablecoin fears.
•Offshore volume up as US liquidity drops.
Price Path:
•Rapid crash to $65K–$70K
•Gradual recovery if containment measures are lifted.
•Year-End: $75K–$90K
4. Recession Hits Europe or Asia First
Probability: 10%
Backdrop:
•Trade war triggers recession in EU or Asia.
•Currency instability (yuan, yen, rupee).
•Investors shift to USD + BTC as safe havens.
BTC Impact:
•“Flight to crypto” narrative, especially from emerging markets.
•Explosive retail demand (India, SE Asia, LatAm).
Price Path:
•Strong breakout to $120K–$135K
•Year-End: $130K–$150K
5. Equities Rally + BTC Flatlines (Rotation Lag)
Probability: 10%
Backdrop:
•Trade tensions ease or markets ignore them.
•Equities surge on cooling inflation.
•Capital rotates out of BTC into stocks and real estate.
BTC Impact:
•BTC flows stall; altcoins see more speculative interest.
•BTC rangebound with limited upside.
Price Path:
•BTC stuck at $80K–$90K
•Year-End: $85K–$95K
6. Liquidity Crisis / Global Deflation
Probability: ~5% (very low, but possible)
Backdrop:
•Global slowdown + tight credit = liquidity crunch.
•US and global growth both contract.
•BTC viewed as “risk asset” and sold off alongside equities, gold.
BTC Impact:
•Institutions de-risk aggressively.
•Everything falls initially; partial rebound if/when stimulus restarts.
Price Path:
•Panic low: $55K–$60K
•Some recovery by year-end if stimulus is deployed.
•Year-End: $65K–$75K
