S2UndergroundWire
26.04.202500:59
Analyst Comments: Some reports have emerged that claim hostilities have already commenced throughout the northern border districts of Kashmir, however at the moment it's not clear if these are legitimate military advances, or just border guards shooting at each other as usual. Reports of heavy artillery being used are more concerning, however at the moment it appears that translation errors could be in play with some of these reports in Indian media. What locals are describing as "heavy artillery" in their native language seems to in actuality be mortar fire, which affects the seriousness of the situation. Cross border fires are quite common by both nations in the region, but the use of what the western world calls "heavy artillery" to fire across the border randomly is less common. What are more frequent (and almost impossible to track and/or verify in this part of the world) are random military units that unilaterally decide to lob a few mortar rounds into abandoned regions across the border.
Regarding the escalations in Ukraine, often times wars flare up on the eve of peace. Of course, no ceasefire has been arrived at yet, much less a long-standing peace deal. However, the normalization of asymmetric warfare among superpowers is not necessarily great for stability. It was a big deal back in December when Ukraine openly claimed credit for the Kirillov assassination. Now that it's happened again, the implications are palpable.
Regardless of how justified Ukraine is in her own defense, the stark reality is that Ukraine's actions will always be tainted by the fact that Russia is a superpower, and Ukraine is not. It doesn't make it morally right or fair, but this is the situation that cannot be ignored. In the context of almost all of Ukraine's military decision making being undertaken by the United States, a rather sobering prospect becomes rather obvious.
When Kirillov was assassinated, the United States' official position was that the US was not involved nor did any American advisor have any prior knowledge of the attack being planned. While the truth of this will be debated on the internet forever, one must remember that "beyond reasonable doubt" rarely has any place in the world of international diplomacy between superpowers.
In short, since the United States is funding and (either directly or indirectly) assisting Ukraine in conducting asymmetric warfare in Russia's capital city...there's quite literally nothing stopping Russia from arming cartels or criminal organizations to do the same within the American homeland. Fairness and morality do not necessarily protect from the consequences of actions, such as arming a proxy to conduct asymmetric warfare in your adversary's home turf. Now that routine and regular assassinations of high-ranking officials in an adversary's capital city are on the menu, the level of instability that this brings will probably complicate negotiations moving forward.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
Regarding the escalations in Ukraine, often times wars flare up on the eve of peace. Of course, no ceasefire has been arrived at yet, much less a long-standing peace deal. However, the normalization of asymmetric warfare among superpowers is not necessarily great for stability. It was a big deal back in December when Ukraine openly claimed credit for the Kirillov assassination. Now that it's happened again, the implications are palpable.
Regardless of how justified Ukraine is in her own defense, the stark reality is that Ukraine's actions will always be tainted by the fact that Russia is a superpower, and Ukraine is not. It doesn't make it morally right or fair, but this is the situation that cannot be ignored. In the context of almost all of Ukraine's military decision making being undertaken by the United States, a rather sobering prospect becomes rather obvious.
When Kirillov was assassinated, the United States' official position was that the US was not involved nor did any American advisor have any prior knowledge of the attack being planned. While the truth of this will be debated on the internet forever, one must remember that "beyond reasonable doubt" rarely has any place in the world of international diplomacy between superpowers.
In short, since the United States is funding and (either directly or indirectly) assisting Ukraine in conducting asymmetric warfare in Russia's capital city...there's quite literally nothing stopping Russia from arming cartels or criminal organizations to do the same within the American homeland. Fairness and morality do not necessarily protect from the consequences of actions, such as arming a proxy to conduct asymmetric warfare in your adversary's home turf. Now that routine and regular assassinations of high-ranking officials in an adversary's capital city are on the menu, the level of instability that this brings will probably complicate negotiations moving forward.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
21.04.202522:02
//The Wire//2200Z April 21, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POPE FRANCIS PASSES AWAY THIS MORNING. CHINA ANNOUNCES LATEST MOVE IN USA/CHINA TRADE WAR.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Vatican City: Pope Francis passed away early this morning at the age of 88, following his bout of respiratory illness. The Vatican stated that Pope Francis died at his residence after experiencing a stroke this morning.
Switzerland: Klaus Schwab, the founder of the infamous World Economic Forum abruptly announced his resignation from his position as Chair of the forum, along with his seat on the Board of Trustees.
AC: No comment was provided on the reason for Schwab stepping aside, and the resignation took effect immediately. However, Schwab had taken a reduced role at the Forum anyway, after handing over most of the day-to-day operations of the organization to Børge Brende back in May of last year.
Far East: The trade war between the United States and China continues to expand, with China announcing a new style of retaliatory tariffs. Though the announcement from China's Ministry of Commerce was somewhat vague, the general sentiment is that for any nation that works with the United States regarding their own tariffs, China will impose Chinese tariffs on that nation.
AC: If this is what China intends to do, this is a significant development. Taxing a third-party nation simply because that nation is working favorably with the USA, is purely a "friend of my enemy is an enemy" approach to this trade crisis that highlights just how serious Beijing is regarding this situation. In short, this whole affair may just be more serious than it appears at face value.
-HomeFront-
Florida: This morning Delta Flight 1213 experienced an engine fire before takeoff in Orlando. The fire occurred as the No. 2 engine was started after pushback from the gate, prompting the inflatable slides to be deployed to evacuate passengers to the taxiway.
New Mexico: A local county magistrate judge has resigned following an incident that involved harboring an illegal alien two months ago. Back in February, Cristhian Ortega-Lopez was arrested on a variety of charges at Judge Cano's home, where he had been living.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The resignation of Judge Cano is not particularly surprising as this judge openly confessed to harboring this illegal alien at his residence. In photos posted to his personal (and public) Facebook page, the judge was also seen in video footage that shows the illegal handling weapons. The reason as to why this two-month-old story is worth mentioning now is due to the quiet "retirement" of the judge at nearly the same time that various court docs claim the illegal was a member of Tren de Aragua (TdA), the infamous gang that has been recently designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). While this development largely went unnoticed by the general public, this FTO designation is no joke. This categorization allows a plethora of tools (to include kinetic targeting efforts) to be used to combat the groups designated as FTOs. It's bad enough for a judge to openly harbor an illegal alien for political purposes, but it's a different thing altogether to harbor someone who's part of a terrorist organization.
It is that FTO label that changes the game; it's entirely a different atmosphere to harbor someone with the same designation as Bin Laden. Though this is speculative, this is probably why this judge quietly got shut down and pressured into "retirement". Everyone knows that it's almost impossible to indict a judge for anything at all (even low-level county magistrates), but it's also hard to remain in the public eye after being caught knowingly harboring a federally designated terrorist on US soil, and providing that individual with small arms.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POPE FRANCIS PASSES AWAY THIS MORNING. CHINA ANNOUNCES LATEST MOVE IN USA/CHINA TRADE WAR.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Vatican City: Pope Francis passed away early this morning at the age of 88, following his bout of respiratory illness. The Vatican stated that Pope Francis died at his residence after experiencing a stroke this morning.
Switzerland: Klaus Schwab, the founder of the infamous World Economic Forum abruptly announced his resignation from his position as Chair of the forum, along with his seat on the Board of Trustees.
AC: No comment was provided on the reason for Schwab stepping aside, and the resignation took effect immediately. However, Schwab had taken a reduced role at the Forum anyway, after handing over most of the day-to-day operations of the organization to Børge Brende back in May of last year.
Far East: The trade war between the United States and China continues to expand, with China announcing a new style of retaliatory tariffs. Though the announcement from China's Ministry of Commerce was somewhat vague, the general sentiment is that for any nation that works with the United States regarding their own tariffs, China will impose Chinese tariffs on that nation.
AC: If this is what China intends to do, this is a significant development. Taxing a third-party nation simply because that nation is working favorably with the USA, is purely a "friend of my enemy is an enemy" approach to this trade crisis that highlights just how serious Beijing is regarding this situation. In short, this whole affair may just be more serious than it appears at face value.
-HomeFront-
Florida: This morning Delta Flight 1213 experienced an engine fire before takeoff in Orlando. The fire occurred as the No. 2 engine was started after pushback from the gate, prompting the inflatable slides to be deployed to evacuate passengers to the taxiway.
New Mexico: A local county magistrate judge has resigned following an incident that involved harboring an illegal alien two months ago. Back in February, Cristhian Ortega-Lopez was arrested on a variety of charges at Judge Cano's home, where he had been living.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The resignation of Judge Cano is not particularly surprising as this judge openly confessed to harboring this illegal alien at his residence. In photos posted to his personal (and public) Facebook page, the judge was also seen in video footage that shows the illegal handling weapons. The reason as to why this two-month-old story is worth mentioning now is due to the quiet "retirement" of the judge at nearly the same time that various court docs claim the illegal was a member of Tren de Aragua (TdA), the infamous gang that has been recently designated as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). While this development largely went unnoticed by the general public, this FTO designation is no joke. This categorization allows a plethora of tools (to include kinetic targeting efforts) to be used to combat the groups designated as FTOs. It's bad enough for a judge to openly harbor an illegal alien for political purposes, but it's a different thing altogether to harbor someone who's part of a terrorist organization.
It is that FTO label that changes the game; it's entirely a different atmosphere to harbor someone with the same designation as Bin Laden. Though this is speculative, this is probably why this judge quietly got shut down and pressured into "retirement". Everyone knows that it's almost impossible to indict a judge for anything at all (even low-level county magistrates), but it's also hard to remain in the public eye after being caught knowingly harboring a federally designated terrorist on US soil, and providing that individual with small arms.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
17.04.202523:35
Texas: The situation regarding the Anthony trial continues to deteriorate. This afternoon, the family of the self-confessed killer held a public press conference whereby the team of attorneys chastised the father of the victim for being there, and called the police to remove him from the public venue.
AC: While it is again unfortunate to analyze situations like this, the atmospherics regarding this case are approaching a tipping point. The efforts to stoke as much hatred as possible are probably a good indicator of how the trial might go, and thus also indicative of the likelihood of civil unrest. Though this is completely speculative, one theory (that is at least possible to discuss in public forum) that carries some weight involves this spectacle being a key part of the defense itself. By allowing the family of the self-confessed killer to conduct outlandish activities while being in front of a camera as much as possible (knowing full well that this will reduce civil discourse to pre-1850's levels) the defense counsel effectively taints the jury pool, so that an acquittal is overwhelmingly likely in what normally would be one of the most open-and-shut cases of recent memory. All it takes is one juror sympathetic to the killer's racially-based defense, and the trial is over.
Washington D.C. - Last night, the Director of National Intelligence declassified a major initiative of the Biden White House to classify gun control efforts. The document, titled "Strategic Implementation Plan For Countering Domestic Terrorism" outlines the plans undertaken by the federal government to expand the scope of what is considered to be "Domestic Terrorism", to include highly controversial initiatives.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Unlike the previous disclosures-that-never-were, this declassification of prior plans to target gun ownership is indeed an important disclosure that provided indisputable evidence that federal agencies are simply classifying ideas that they disagreed with, as terrorism. Since this document was classified and not available to the public, the American people had no avenue to challenge these illegal policies in court. As such, it is STRONGLY advised to read this primary-source document for yourself.
While many people will focus on the gun control angle, nearly every aspect of existence was flagged and tagged as being an indicator for terrorism. Photographs that a person may like, phrases in common use, travel habits, the banking institutions you use...all of this is not just being targeted for surveillance, but unilaterally being classified as being supportive of domestic terrorism. Granted, in a larger sense all of this is not entirely new, the Patriot Act alone helped lay the groundwork for the more in-the-weeds efforts to crackdown on the American population. This document is merely a smoking-gun from recent memory that confirms this activity was not only authorized, but being undertaken on an industrial scale. And, since this document was classified, this concealment unilaterally marked a substantial number of American citizens as terrorists, who had no means of disputing this categorization.
However, important as this document may be, it is very likely that the pages that have been released are not the full document. There is no properly-formatted coversheet (just a title page), no introductory letter by the producing agency, nor any reference to who actually wrote this document or which agency it was for. Of course, this could simply be a series of errors, but this is very much at odds with the standard handling procedures for classified information. What's more likely is that this document was part of a larger publication and/or memo that was circulated as part of a larger project, and the more damning pages were declassified by the DNI, but not the entire parent document.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
AC: While it is again unfortunate to analyze situations like this, the atmospherics regarding this case are approaching a tipping point. The efforts to stoke as much hatred as possible are probably a good indicator of how the trial might go, and thus also indicative of the likelihood of civil unrest. Though this is completely speculative, one theory (that is at least possible to discuss in public forum) that carries some weight involves this spectacle being a key part of the defense itself. By allowing the family of the self-confessed killer to conduct outlandish activities while being in front of a camera as much as possible (knowing full well that this will reduce civil discourse to pre-1850's levels) the defense counsel effectively taints the jury pool, so that an acquittal is overwhelmingly likely in what normally would be one of the most open-and-shut cases of recent memory. All it takes is one juror sympathetic to the killer's racially-based defense, and the trial is over.
Washington D.C. - Last night, the Director of National Intelligence declassified a major initiative of the Biden White House to classify gun control efforts. The document, titled "Strategic Implementation Plan For Countering Domestic Terrorism" outlines the plans undertaken by the federal government to expand the scope of what is considered to be "Domestic Terrorism", to include highly controversial initiatives.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Unlike the previous disclosures-that-never-were, this declassification of prior plans to target gun ownership is indeed an important disclosure that provided indisputable evidence that federal agencies are simply classifying ideas that they disagreed with, as terrorism. Since this document was classified and not available to the public, the American people had no avenue to challenge these illegal policies in court. As such, it is STRONGLY advised to read this primary-source document for yourself.
While many people will focus on the gun control angle, nearly every aspect of existence was flagged and tagged as being an indicator for terrorism. Photographs that a person may like, phrases in common use, travel habits, the banking institutions you use...all of this is not just being targeted for surveillance, but unilaterally being classified as being supportive of domestic terrorism. Granted, in a larger sense all of this is not entirely new, the Patriot Act alone helped lay the groundwork for the more in-the-weeds efforts to crackdown on the American population. This document is merely a smoking-gun from recent memory that confirms this activity was not only authorized, but being undertaken on an industrial scale. And, since this document was classified, this concealment unilaterally marked a substantial number of American citizens as terrorists, who had no means of disputing this categorization.
However, important as this document may be, it is very likely that the pages that have been released are not the full document. There is no properly-formatted coversheet (just a title page), no introductory letter by the producing agency, nor any reference to who actually wrote this document or which agency it was for. Of course, this could simply be a series of errors, but this is very much at odds with the standard handling procedures for classified information. What's more likely is that this document was part of a larger publication and/or memo that was circulated as part of a larger project, and the more damning pages were declassified by the DNI, but not the entire parent document.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
14.04.202521:33
//The Wire//2300Z April 14, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK AT GOV MANSION IN PA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The various conflicts throughout the region continue as before. Israeli forces continue their most recent advance into Gaza after breaking the ceasefire last month. IDF officials announced that they have taken control of Rafah over the weekend, and will continue expanding their security corridor to include the entire region between Rafah to Khan Younis. In the Red Sea, Houthi forces claimed to have downed their 19th American MQ-9 drone over the weekend, as the bombing campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen continues.
AC: Most of the very indirect negotiations with Iran have not really resulted in much progress. The next round of talks is reportedly expected to take place between low-level diplomats in Rome next week, though not many details have been publicly confirmed by the White House.
-HomeFront-
Wisconsin: Yesterday the FBI unsealed records pertaining to a murder investigation that took place last month. Investigators claim that while Nikita Casap was originally arrested for murdering his parents, he was also planning to assassinate President Trump.
AC: This entire story is incredibly disturbing, so determining exactly what the assailant's plans were is difficult. However, as these types of incidents remain more common than in the past (while remaining comparatively rare overall), this still highlights the current domestic threat environment.
Pennsylvania: Over the weekend an assailant conducted an incendiary attack on the Governor's mansion. Local authorities state that Cody Balmer was arrested after breaching the perimeter of the Governor's Mansion in Harrisburg, breaking a window to gain access, and using improvised incendiary devices to set fire to the structure.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: So far it's not really clear as to why the Pennsylvania attack occurred. Local authorities claim that the assailant stated that he "hated" the Governor in a post arrest interrogation, but no ideological motivations are immediately clear. The assailant's mother claimed that she called police to warn of the attack, as the assailant was allegedly off his meds.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN THE MIDDLE EAST. ARSON ATTACK AT GOV MANSION IN PA.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: The various conflicts throughout the region continue as before. Israeli forces continue their most recent advance into Gaza after breaking the ceasefire last month. IDF officials announced that they have taken control of Rafah over the weekend, and will continue expanding their security corridor to include the entire region between Rafah to Khan Younis. In the Red Sea, Houthi forces claimed to have downed their 19th American MQ-9 drone over the weekend, as the bombing campaign against Houthi targets in Yemen continues.
AC: Most of the very indirect negotiations with Iran have not really resulted in much progress. The next round of talks is reportedly expected to take place between low-level diplomats in Rome next week, though not many details have been publicly confirmed by the White House.
-HomeFront-
Wisconsin: Yesterday the FBI unsealed records pertaining to a murder investigation that took place last month. Investigators claim that while Nikita Casap was originally arrested for murdering his parents, he was also planning to assassinate President Trump.
AC: This entire story is incredibly disturbing, so determining exactly what the assailant's plans were is difficult. However, as these types of incidents remain more common than in the past (while remaining comparatively rare overall), this still highlights the current domestic threat environment.
Pennsylvania: Over the weekend an assailant conducted an incendiary attack on the Governor's mansion. Local authorities state that Cody Balmer was arrested after breaching the perimeter of the Governor's Mansion in Harrisburg, breaking a window to gain access, and using improvised incendiary devices to set fire to the structure.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: So far it's not really clear as to why the Pennsylvania attack occurred. Local authorities claim that the assailant stated that he "hated" the Governor in a post arrest interrogation, but no ideological motivations are immediately clear. The assailant's mother claimed that she called police to warn of the attack, as the assailant was allegedly off his meds.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
09.04.202523:25
//The Wire//2300Z April 9, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ECONOMIC SHAKEUP CONTINUES. BOMBING CONTINUES IN YEMEN, TALKS WITH IRAN TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Taiwan: A 5.4M earthquake struck north of the island overnight, resulting in strong tremors being felt throughout the nation. By morning, not much damage was reported.
Middle East: American strategic bombing in Yemen has continued to increase as Yemen claims to have downed another American MQ-9, bringing the total number of drones shot down by the Houthis during this campaign to 18. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue with the Iranians. The White House announced that more direct talks with Iranian diplomats will take place on Saturday.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Almost immediately upon the SCOTUS ruling yesterday, a federal judge in Texas blocked Trump's use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport Tren de Aragua members from the United States.
Washington D.C. - The market shakeups continue as the trade wars deepen between the United States and many other nations. China announced that they will be raising their tariffs on the United States to 84%, an increase from 34% previously. In response, the White House announced that American tariffs on China will be raised to a total of 125%, effective immediately. Trump also stated (as confirmed on his Truth Social page) that he is initiating a 90-day pause on tariffs with some nations. This is in addition to lowering tariffs on non-reciprocating nations to 10%.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: This time, the 90 day pause policy is indeed real, or at least this is the official statement posted on President Trump's social media page. Not much context or amplifying information was conveyed, leaving much uncertainty during this very fluid situation. As one might expect, the events of today caused a significant surge in the US stock market, though since the situation is changing by the minute, anything goes at this point. In short, the mood of the week is chaos, and thus it will take some time for the situation to calm down enough to figure out the long term impacts of the radical economic shakeups over past few days.
Despite the harsh rhetoric on the international stage regarding trade disputes, some nations have come to the negotiating table without much open hostility. Japan and South Korea, for instance, have both expressed a willingness to negotiate, and have not taken the hostile diplomatic tone expressed by China and most of Europe.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: ECONOMIC SHAKEUP CONTINUES. BOMBING CONTINUES IN YEMEN, TALKS WITH IRAN TO TAKE PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Taiwan: A 5.4M earthquake struck north of the island overnight, resulting in strong tremors being felt throughout the nation. By morning, not much damage was reported.
Middle East: American strategic bombing in Yemen has continued to increase as Yemen claims to have downed another American MQ-9, bringing the total number of drones shot down by the Houthis during this campaign to 18. Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts continue with the Iranians. The White House announced that more direct talks with Iranian diplomats will take place on Saturday.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Almost immediately upon the SCOTUS ruling yesterday, a federal judge in Texas blocked Trump's use of the Alien Enemies Act to deport Tren de Aragua members from the United States.
Washington D.C. - The market shakeups continue as the trade wars deepen between the United States and many other nations. China announced that they will be raising their tariffs on the United States to 84%, an increase from 34% previously. In response, the White House announced that American tariffs on China will be raised to a total of 125%, effective immediately. Trump also stated (as confirmed on his Truth Social page) that he is initiating a 90-day pause on tariffs with some nations. This is in addition to lowering tariffs on non-reciprocating nations to 10%.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: This time, the 90 day pause policy is indeed real, or at least this is the official statement posted on President Trump's social media page. Not much context or amplifying information was conveyed, leaving much uncertainty during this very fluid situation. As one might expect, the events of today caused a significant surge in the US stock market, though since the situation is changing by the minute, anything goes at this point. In short, the mood of the week is chaos, and thus it will take some time for the situation to calm down enough to figure out the long term impacts of the radical economic shakeups over past few days.
Despite the harsh rhetoric on the international stage regarding trade disputes, some nations have come to the negotiating table without much open hostility. Japan and South Korea, for instance, have both expressed a willingness to negotiate, and have not taken the hostile diplomatic tone expressed by China and most of Europe.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
04.04.202521:49
Which perspective is correct is already being hotly debated, and the situation isn't necessarily possible to categorize as "good" or "bad". However, virtually no one is stating that economic tribulation won't be the result; the general consensus is that economic trouble will happen no matter what. The debate lies with whether or not the tariffs will result in long term hardship, or short term hardship....hard times will probably be the result in any case.
In the United Kingdom, the murder in Huddersfield has been subject to more gaslighting and manipulation in the media than usual, possibly due to the gruesome nature of the attack. For instance, the BBC reported the incident in very passive language, merely stating that "a man was found with a stab wound". Most media groups have also completely ignored the attacker, or in this case, the multiple people who have been arrested in conjunction with this murder.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
In the United Kingdom, the murder in Huddersfield has been subject to more gaslighting and manipulation in the media than usual, possibly due to the gruesome nature of the attack. For instance, the BBC reported the incident in very passive language, merely stating that "a man was found with a stab wound". Most media groups have also completely ignored the attacker, or in this case, the multiple people who have been arrested in conjunction with this murder.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
24.04.202520:20
//The Wire//2100Z April 24, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: INDIA AND PAKISTAN ON THE BRINK OF WAR. ARREST MADE IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEW JERSEY WILDFIRE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
India/Pakistan: The situation has rapidly increased in seriousness following India's actions after the recent terror attack in Kashmir. Various diplomats in both nations have been declared persona-non-grata, and diplomatic talks between both belligerents have been progressively deteriorating for the past 24 hours. Both India and Pakistan have closed all border crossings and suspended all visas from each other's country. India has ordered the deportation of all Pakistanis from India, and Pakistan has ordered likewise with all Indians in Pakistan. Both nations have issued repatriation orders, urging their own citizens to return to their respective nations immediately.
India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), halting all water access into Pakistan via the closure of sluice gates at the various dams along rivers that flow into Pakistan. As this water is crucial for roughly 80% of all agricultural irrigation in Pakistan, Pakistani leadership has labeled the move as an act of war and has subsequently threatened to bomb these dams. In response to this rhetoric, India has deployed the INS Vikrant (one of her two aircraft carriers), which was observed maneuvering off the coast of Pakistan this morning. Various airspace closures have been reported between the two nations as well.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: This morning authorities announced the arrest of Joseph Kling on charges of aggravated arson, for his role in starting the fires that have swept through the state over the past few days. The arrest notice stated that he set a bonfire in a wooded area and departed before the fire was extinguished.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The development involving India deploying her main flagship during this crisis is probably related to one of three possibilities. 1 - It's a standard deployment that isn't related to any current event, 2 - It is an attempt by India to bully Pakistan via a little power-projection on the high seas, or 3 - India is intending to actually carry out some sort of military operation against Pakistan.
Under normal conditions, the latter option wouldn't be a realistic theory, however when it comes to the India/Pakistan conflict anything goes. This is why despite most of the civilized world not caring about what happens on the Indian subcontinent, this conflict has the potential to become rather serious. India and Pakistan have a very long history of conducting themselves exactly how they are doing so right now; tensions rising to the brink of war between these two nations has been quite common over the years. However, when two third-world nations have grievances that go back thousands of years, but both nations also happen to have nuclear weapons, the game takes on a slightly more concerning tone. Either way, the next few weeks will be a point of concern as these old rivals continue to escalate the situation.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: INDIA AND PAKISTAN ON THE BRINK OF WAR. ARREST MADE IN CONJUNCTION WITH NEW JERSEY WILDFIRE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
India/Pakistan: The situation has rapidly increased in seriousness following India's actions after the recent terror attack in Kashmir. Various diplomats in both nations have been declared persona-non-grata, and diplomatic talks between both belligerents have been progressively deteriorating for the past 24 hours. Both India and Pakistan have closed all border crossings and suspended all visas from each other's country. India has ordered the deportation of all Pakistanis from India, and Pakistan has ordered likewise with all Indians in Pakistan. Both nations have issued repatriation orders, urging their own citizens to return to their respective nations immediately.
India has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (1960), halting all water access into Pakistan via the closure of sluice gates at the various dams along rivers that flow into Pakistan. As this water is crucial for roughly 80% of all agricultural irrigation in Pakistan, Pakistani leadership has labeled the move as an act of war and has subsequently threatened to bomb these dams. In response to this rhetoric, India has deployed the INS Vikrant (one of her two aircraft carriers), which was observed maneuvering off the coast of Pakistan this morning. Various airspace closures have been reported between the two nations as well.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: This morning authorities announced the arrest of Joseph Kling on charges of aggravated arson, for his role in starting the fires that have swept through the state over the past few days. The arrest notice stated that he set a bonfire in a wooded area and departed before the fire was extinguished.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The development involving India deploying her main flagship during this crisis is probably related to one of three possibilities. 1 - It's a standard deployment that isn't related to any current event, 2 - It is an attempt by India to bully Pakistan via a little power-projection on the high seas, or 3 - India is intending to actually carry out some sort of military operation against Pakistan.
Under normal conditions, the latter option wouldn't be a realistic theory, however when it comes to the India/Pakistan conflict anything goes. This is why despite most of the civilized world not caring about what happens on the Indian subcontinent, this conflict has the potential to become rather serious. India and Pakistan have a very long history of conducting themselves exactly how they are doing so right now; tensions rising to the brink of war between these two nations has been quite common over the years. However, when two third-world nations have grievances that go back thousands of years, but both nations also happen to have nuclear weapons, the game takes on a slightly more concerning tone. Either way, the next few weeks will be a point of concern as these old rivals continue to escalate the situation.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
19.04.202520:37
This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/8WJxjnKkyTU
16.04.202522:34
//The Wire//2300Z April 16, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRADE WAR GROWS IN SCOPE. IMMIGRATION WOES CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: British media has reported this morning that a record number of illegals have crossed the Channel in boats, with over 700+ illegals gaining entry to the nation just yesterday.
AC: As the warmer weather sets in, migration season is likely to be in full swing. Similar illegal immigration efforts have been noted throughout the Mediterranean at large over the past few weeks, as weather conditions this time of year make crossings more favorable.
-HomeFront-
Texas: The Joint Task Force - Southern Border (JTF-SB) public affairs office released a statement today confirming the deaths of two service members who were killed in a vehicle accident near Santa Theresa, New Mexico. One additional service member remains in critical condition as a result of the accident.
AC: The press release did not specify, however it's likely that this was not a combat-related incident at this time.
Washington D.C. - The trade war between the United States and China has continued to worsen over the past few days. The Chinese government has banned all Chinese airlines from taking delivery of existing orders of new aircraft made by Boeing, and has halted most of the Chinese aerospace industry from buying any American-made parts.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the short term, it's hard to convey the real world impacts that a USA/China trade war might have. Generally speaking, uncertainty will drive prices up for most things. However, some goods won't take much of a hit, such as goods that are already extremely over-inflated in price under normal conditions. Some companies may be willing to take a temporary cut in revenue, eating the cost of the tariffs in the short term, with the goal of eventually waiting until things reach a point of stability. Many other companies will probably rely on trickery via a technicality to avoid tariffs in some way, or reduce the impact that tariffs might have. What is far more certain is that the Chinese government wields vastly more control over Chinese companies, than the American government exerts over American companies. This is important in the context of various industries that might be necessary to have in one's homeland in time of war.
One of the more important (yet largely unspoken) aspects of this trade dispute is the military angle. Reciprocal tariffs that exceed 100% are more than a mere trade dispute...this is more or less an attempt at a soft embargo at this point. Both nations are looking at this through the military lens, not the economic lens, a perspective which might explain some of the odd decisions and behavior on both sides. In short, engaging in a trade conflict with a Second World nation where the economy is largely centrally planned, could result in unforeseen developments over time. Especially if both nations continue engaging in this trade dispute, which probably isn't purely economic in nature.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TRADE WAR GROWS IN SCOPE. IMMIGRATION WOES CONTINUE IN EUROPE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: British media has reported this morning that a record number of illegals have crossed the Channel in boats, with over 700+ illegals gaining entry to the nation just yesterday.
AC: As the warmer weather sets in, migration season is likely to be in full swing. Similar illegal immigration efforts have been noted throughout the Mediterranean at large over the past few weeks, as weather conditions this time of year make crossings more favorable.
-HomeFront-
Texas: The Joint Task Force - Southern Border (JTF-SB) public affairs office released a statement today confirming the deaths of two service members who were killed in a vehicle accident near Santa Theresa, New Mexico. One additional service member remains in critical condition as a result of the accident.
AC: The press release did not specify, however it's likely that this was not a combat-related incident at this time.
Washington D.C. - The trade war between the United States and China has continued to worsen over the past few days. The Chinese government has banned all Chinese airlines from taking delivery of existing orders of new aircraft made by Boeing, and has halted most of the Chinese aerospace industry from buying any American-made parts.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: In the short term, it's hard to convey the real world impacts that a USA/China trade war might have. Generally speaking, uncertainty will drive prices up for most things. However, some goods won't take much of a hit, such as goods that are already extremely over-inflated in price under normal conditions. Some companies may be willing to take a temporary cut in revenue, eating the cost of the tariffs in the short term, with the goal of eventually waiting until things reach a point of stability. Many other companies will probably rely on trickery via a technicality to avoid tariffs in some way, or reduce the impact that tariffs might have. What is far more certain is that the Chinese government wields vastly more control over Chinese companies, than the American government exerts over American companies. This is important in the context of various industries that might be necessary to have in one's homeland in time of war.
One of the more important (yet largely unspoken) aspects of this trade dispute is the military angle. Reciprocal tariffs that exceed 100% are more than a mere trade dispute...this is more or less an attempt at a soft embargo at this point. Both nations are looking at this through the military lens, not the economic lens, a perspective which might explain some of the odd decisions and behavior on both sides. In short, engaging in a trade conflict with a Second World nation where the economy is largely centrally planned, could result in unforeseen developments over time. Especially if both nations continue engaging in this trade dispute, which probably isn't purely economic in nature.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
13.04.202503:21
This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/DUb5-ruVbPo
07.04.202521:56
//The Wire//2300Z April 7, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GLOBAL MARKET TURMOIL RESULTS FROM TARIFF SHAKEUP. FORCE BUILDUP IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: On the economic front, hallmarks of a global market correction began to be observed this morning. Last night the Japanese stock market crashed, with circuit breakers being tripped for futures trading (Nikkei 225). Taiwan and South Korea did not do much better as circuit breakers were also tripped for their respective futures products as well as products linked to Taiwan's semiconductor production giant TSMC.
Following the exceptionally chaotic market fluctuations this morning, President Trump announced on social media that the United States will increase the tariffs on China by an additional 50% if China does not remove their additional tit-for-tat tariff implementations.
AC: As the United States has already implemented a 20% tariff on China, plus an additional 34% tariff, an additional 50% tariff on top of these previous taxes means China is looking at a potential 104% tariff being implemented in two days (if the situation doesn't change).
Middle East: The Charles de Gaulle Carrier Strike Group (CSG) was observed transiting north through the Suez Canal this morning, leaving the two American carriers the only one's in the CENTCOM AOR. Minor repositioning was observed at Diego Garcia as of this morning, with 6x B2's still on site with their respective refueling aircraft. Over the weekend, Israeli media claimed that the elusive THAAD battery that was originally in South Korea has been transferred to Israel.
AC: If this is true (and it likely is), this brings the total in Israel to two of these missile defense systems.
-HomeFront-
New York: Over the weekend a mass stabbing was reported at an apartment building in Brooklyn. Local authorities state that a man had a mental episode which resulted in him attempting to murder four young family members. 4x children were wounded in the attack, and the attacker was neutralized by police during their response.
Texas: A local measles outbreak has gained national attention following the death of a second child from the disease. HHS Secretary RFK Jr. visited Gaines County yesterday, and announced the deployment of CDC personnel to the area. RFK Jr. also stated on social media that "The most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine".
Washington D.C. - Over the weekend, FBI Director Kash Patel promoted the highly-controversial Steven Jensen to lead the Field Office in Washington D.C. Previously Jensen served as the chief of the Domestic Terrorism Operations Section within the Counterterrorism Division.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments:
While many may have forgotten, Steven Jensen is a highly controversial pick for this position as he was one of the masterminds within the FBI to investigate parents speaking at school board meetings as terrorists under the command of AG Merrick Garland in 2021.
As he was the Chief of the Domestic Terrorism Operations Section (also in 2021), Jensen was also the lead FBI decision maker behind the J6 investigations, and enthusiastically carried out the targeting of J6 participants on that day, and for many months afterwards. In short, Jensen is the man who provided the legwork for the J6 investigation, and he is one of the main persons responsible for why Trump himself had to pardon many J6 participants. Now, Jensen has been promoted into a very prestigious position at the FBI, leading the Field Office in Washington.
Due to the highly controversial nature of this pick, this promotion was not advertised with much fanfare. However, Patel passively confirmed the move himself by reposting an article on social media referencing the personnel change.
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: GLOBAL MARKET TURMOIL RESULTS FROM TARIFF SHAKEUP. FORCE BUILDUP IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Global: On the economic front, hallmarks of a global market correction began to be observed this morning. Last night the Japanese stock market crashed, with circuit breakers being tripped for futures trading (Nikkei 225). Taiwan and South Korea did not do much better as circuit breakers were also tripped for their respective futures products as well as products linked to Taiwan's semiconductor production giant TSMC.
Following the exceptionally chaotic market fluctuations this morning, President Trump announced on social media that the United States will increase the tariffs on China by an additional 50% if China does not remove their additional tit-for-tat tariff implementations.
AC: As the United States has already implemented a 20% tariff on China, plus an additional 34% tariff, an additional 50% tariff on top of these previous taxes means China is looking at a potential 104% tariff being implemented in two days (if the situation doesn't change).
Middle East: The Charles de Gaulle Carrier Strike Group (CSG) was observed transiting north through the Suez Canal this morning, leaving the two American carriers the only one's in the CENTCOM AOR. Minor repositioning was observed at Diego Garcia as of this morning, with 6x B2's still on site with their respective refueling aircraft. Over the weekend, Israeli media claimed that the elusive THAAD battery that was originally in South Korea has been transferred to Israel.
AC: If this is true (and it likely is), this brings the total in Israel to two of these missile defense systems.
-HomeFront-
New York: Over the weekend a mass stabbing was reported at an apartment building in Brooklyn. Local authorities state that a man had a mental episode which resulted in him attempting to murder four young family members. 4x children were wounded in the attack, and the attacker was neutralized by police during their response.
Texas: A local measles outbreak has gained national attention following the death of a second child from the disease. HHS Secretary RFK Jr. visited Gaines County yesterday, and announced the deployment of CDC personnel to the area. RFK Jr. also stated on social media that "The most effective way to prevent the spread of measles is the MMR vaccine".
Washington D.C. - Over the weekend, FBI Director Kash Patel promoted the highly-controversial Steven Jensen to lead the Field Office in Washington D.C. Previously Jensen served as the chief of the Domestic Terrorism Operations Section within the Counterterrorism Division.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments:
While many may have forgotten, Steven Jensen is a highly controversial pick for this position as he was one of the masterminds within the FBI to investigate parents speaking at school board meetings as terrorists under the command of AG Merrick Garland in 2021.
As he was the Chief of the Domestic Terrorism Operations Section (also in 2021), Jensen was also the lead FBI decision maker behind the J6 investigations, and enthusiastically carried out the targeting of J6 participants on that day, and for many months afterwards. In short, Jensen is the man who provided the legwork for the J6 investigation, and he is one of the main persons responsible for why Trump himself had to pardon many J6 participants. Now, Jensen has been promoted into a very prestigious position at the FBI, leading the Field Office in Washington.
Due to the highly controversial nature of this pick, this promotion was not advertised with much fanfare. However, Patel passively confirmed the move himself by reposting an article on social media referencing the personnel change.
04.04.202521:49
//The Wire//2300Z April 4, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: YEMENI HOUTHIS DOWN TWO AMERICAN DRONES, CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED HIGH TENSIONS. ECONOMIC INSTABILITY REMAINS FOLLOWING TARIFFS ANNOUNCEMENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: A 16-year-old boy was murdered after being stabbed in the neck in Huddersfield. So far, multiple attackers have been arrested in conjunction with the murder, however authorities have not identified the assailants.
Red Sea/HOA: The situation involving American targeting of the Houthis in Yemen has deteriorated following the shootdown of two American drones within the past few days. Two MQ-9 Reaper drones were shot down by the Houthis, one in Hudaydah, the other over Ma'rib.
Middle East: This afternoon the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center issued a maritime advisory warning of increased GPS jamming being detected in the Strait of Hormuz.
AC: This is a classic tactic used by Iranian forces routinely, either for the hijacking of vessels, or for more wartime preparations. While it is possible that the jamming is the result of American warships using electronic countermeasures to defend against missiles, in this case this could be related to the recent uptick in Iranian forces stopping oil tankers allegedly engaging in the smuggling of petroleum products. Iranian authorities seized two vessels attempting to illegally export diesel fuel from Iran a few days ago for these reasons. However, considering that the overall security situation in the region remains tenuous, GPS jamming could be a sign of increasing defenses against a potential conflict.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Various economic fallout continues as all sides of the issue interpret the recent tariff announcements in the context of economic stability. Most financial markets have remained volatile as fast-moving economic developments have come to light. This morning President Trump urged the FED to cut rates, but as of this afternoon Chairman Powell seems to indicate he's not interested in such, leading to more uncertainty.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Generally speaking, there are multiple viewpoints on whether the recent economic changes in the US are good or bad. Some state that the tariffs (and subsequent economic shake-up with regards to American domestic production) are a necessary hardship that will be tough at first, but will get better as more domestic production returns to the United States. Others think that while this is a noble goal, this may not be possible in some industries as companies will simply keep production overseas, and pass the costs of tariffs on to consumers, since most major companies in the modern world are monopolies. Others still don't like taxes in any form whatsoever, which is an argument that often mistakenly conflates taxing a domestic population with taxing an overseas adversary. Some people say "fair is fair", and that taxing other nations the same as they tax us is long overdue. Others agree with this idea, but point out that in the international arena, returning to a concept of fairness won't rule out hardship since most American companies outsourced everything to the third world years ago, and it will take a lot of work (and be quite costly) to start building things in America again. Even more people will point out the national security concerns of having the overwhelming majority of critical wartime supplies (such as almost all medications) being made overseas with cheap labor...an American-made Tylenol pill costing a few dollars per pill may be preferable to not having that pill at all in the event of a war.
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: YEMENI HOUTHIS DOWN TWO AMERICAN DRONES, CONTRIBUTING TO CONTINUED HIGH TENSIONS. ECONOMIC INSTABILITY REMAINS FOLLOWING TARIFFS ANNOUNCEMENT.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
United Kingdom: A 16-year-old boy was murdered after being stabbed in the neck in Huddersfield. So far, multiple attackers have been arrested in conjunction with the murder, however authorities have not identified the assailants.
Red Sea/HOA: The situation involving American targeting of the Houthis in Yemen has deteriorated following the shootdown of two American drones within the past few days. Two MQ-9 Reaper drones were shot down by the Houthis, one in Hudaydah, the other over Ma'rib.
Middle East: This afternoon the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) center issued a maritime advisory warning of increased GPS jamming being detected in the Strait of Hormuz.
AC: This is a classic tactic used by Iranian forces routinely, either for the hijacking of vessels, or for more wartime preparations. While it is possible that the jamming is the result of American warships using electronic countermeasures to defend against missiles, in this case this could be related to the recent uptick in Iranian forces stopping oil tankers allegedly engaging in the smuggling of petroleum products. Iranian authorities seized two vessels attempting to illegally export diesel fuel from Iran a few days ago for these reasons. However, considering that the overall security situation in the region remains tenuous, GPS jamming could be a sign of increasing defenses against a potential conflict.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Various economic fallout continues as all sides of the issue interpret the recent tariff announcements in the context of economic stability. Most financial markets have remained volatile as fast-moving economic developments have come to light. This morning President Trump urged the FED to cut rates, but as of this afternoon Chairman Powell seems to indicate he's not interested in such, leading to more uncertainty.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Generally speaking, there are multiple viewpoints on whether the recent economic changes in the US are good or bad. Some state that the tariffs (and subsequent economic shake-up with regards to American domestic production) are a necessary hardship that will be tough at first, but will get better as more domestic production returns to the United States. Others think that while this is a noble goal, this may not be possible in some industries as companies will simply keep production overseas, and pass the costs of tariffs on to consumers, since most major companies in the modern world are monopolies. Others still don't like taxes in any form whatsoever, which is an argument that often mistakenly conflates taxing a domestic population with taxing an overseas adversary. Some people say "fair is fair", and that taxing other nations the same as they tax us is long overdue. Others agree with this idea, but point out that in the international arena, returning to a concept of fairness won't rule out hardship since most American companies outsourced everything to the third world years ago, and it will take a lot of work (and be quite costly) to start building things in America again. Even more people will point out the national security concerns of having the overwhelming majority of critical wartime supplies (such as almost all medications) being made overseas with cheap labor...an American-made Tylenol pill costing a few dollars per pill may be preferable to not having that pill at all in the event of a war.
23.04.202523:29
//The Wire//2300Z April 23, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WILDFIRE CAUSES MASS EVACUATIONS IN NEW JERSEY. EARTHQUAKE STRIKES TURKEY. INDIA/PAKISTAN RELATIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Turkey: An earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.2 struck just south of Istanbul (Constantinople) overnight. So far reports of damage have been limited; Turkey's Minister of the Interior stated that no major buildings had collapsed but damage had been reported.
India: Following the recent terror attack in Kashmir, India has responded in several ways, most of which are not directly related to the specific attack, but rather are more diplomatic in nature. For one, India has halted the recent cross-border water deal with Pakistan due to the attack. India has also paused a special visa program with Pakistan that had allowed faster cross-border traffic for Pakistanis into the highly-controversial Kashmir region. Indian security patrols are also increasing throughout the area of the initial attack, and various high-level meetings with Indian defense officials have been observed since the attack took place.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Overnight large scale evacuations were ordered throughout the Barnegat township as a wildfire spread rapidly through Greenwood Forest. The Jones Road Fire was roughly 8,500 acres in size by morning, and at only 10% containment. The New Jersey Forest Fire Service reported that approximately 1,320 structures were at risk for being overtaken by the fire, and roughly 3,000 people have been evacuated from the areas most at risk.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Throughout the past few days, various rhetoric has continued regarding the trade war between the USA and China. Nothing is solidified beyond mere rumor and casual comment at this point, however the situation remains delicate. Some media outlets historically critical of President Trump are claiming that he caved, and will reduce the tariffs on China following the economic turmoil since this whole affair began. Media outlets supportive of Trump imply that he hasn't "caved" and that the situation is still being negotiated. Considering that there's very little to go on that's solid, the truth is probably in between the two extremes.
More generally, it is often very hard to engage in a trade war with nations that are governed by Communist institutions. This simple detail could be an unforeseen factor in negotiations; China's economy is not solely based around commerce...there is a military angle to most things that China does even if it doesn't seem like it at first. Nevertheless, some agreement will likely be reached at some point, despite the power-projection attempts by both sides.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: WILDFIRE CAUSES MASS EVACUATIONS IN NEW JERSEY. EARTHQUAKE STRIKES TURKEY. INDIA/PAKISTAN RELATIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Turkey: An earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 6.2 struck just south of Istanbul (Constantinople) overnight. So far reports of damage have been limited; Turkey's Minister of the Interior stated that no major buildings had collapsed but damage had been reported.
India: Following the recent terror attack in Kashmir, India has responded in several ways, most of which are not directly related to the specific attack, but rather are more diplomatic in nature. For one, India has halted the recent cross-border water deal with Pakistan due to the attack. India has also paused a special visa program with Pakistan that had allowed faster cross-border traffic for Pakistanis into the highly-controversial Kashmir region. Indian security patrols are also increasing throughout the area of the initial attack, and various high-level meetings with Indian defense officials have been observed since the attack took place.
-HomeFront-
New Jersey: Overnight large scale evacuations were ordered throughout the Barnegat township as a wildfire spread rapidly through Greenwood Forest. The Jones Road Fire was roughly 8,500 acres in size by morning, and at only 10% containment. The New Jersey Forest Fire Service reported that approximately 1,320 structures were at risk for being overtaken by the fire, and roughly 3,000 people have been evacuated from the areas most at risk.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Throughout the past few days, various rhetoric has continued regarding the trade war between the USA and China. Nothing is solidified beyond mere rumor and casual comment at this point, however the situation remains delicate. Some media outlets historically critical of President Trump are claiming that he caved, and will reduce the tariffs on China following the economic turmoil since this whole affair began. Media outlets supportive of Trump imply that he hasn't "caved" and that the situation is still being negotiated. Considering that there's very little to go on that's solid, the truth is probably in between the two extremes.
More generally, it is often very hard to engage in a trade war with nations that are governed by Communist institutions. This simple detail could be an unforeseen factor in negotiations; China's economy is not solely based around commerce...there is a military angle to most things that China does even if it doesn't seem like it at first. Nevertheless, some agreement will likely be reached at some point, despite the power-projection attempts by both sides.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
18.04.202523:16
//The Wire//2300Z April 18, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POSSIBLE DRAWDOWN OF AMERICAN PRESENCE OBSERVED IN SYRIA. LIKELY CARTEL AMMO SHIPMENT HALTED IN COLORADO. DALLAS SCHOOL SHOOTER IDENTIFIED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Early indications are emerging that the United States is drawing down their military presence in Syria. Details are hard to come by, however many locals have posted videos of American convoys departing several smaller bases to consolidate resources at some of the larger facilities in the region.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Yesterday afternoon, video evidence came to light regarding the school shooting that took place in Dallas two days ago. Tracy Denard Haynes Jr. posted a video confession on social media while he was evading pursuit immediately after gaining entry to the school and shooting four people. Haynes turned himself in to authorities yesterday.
Texas: Austin Metcalf's family was swatted last night, as malign actors called in a fake report of gunfire at their home in Frisco.
Colorado: Two immigrants from Mexico (admitted to the US legally) were arrested after authorities discovered a substantial arms shipment during a traffic stop near Cañon City.
AC: While it is not illegal to transport ammunition, it is illegal to do so for an immigrant admitted to the United States on a non-resident visa. Considering that media reports that roughly 180,000 small arms rounds were discovered during this traffic stop, this was probably a shipment related to various cartel operations in the United States.
Arizona: Last night, Jacob Couch passed away after being on life support after being brutally attacked in Tucson two weeks ago. His attacker, Daniel Michael, is now being charged with first-degree murder for the attack.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While largely speculative, the potential drawdown in Syria is an important indication and warning of what could be strategic movement, specifically with regards to a potential conflict with Iran. If this consolidation and reduction in forces throughout Syria is indeed genuine, it could be for any number of wildly differing reasons. In short, it could be due to the United States stepping back from escalations pertaining to Iran, or it could be a deception attempt to reduce the presence at more vulnerable and hard-to-defend bases, to reinforce other positions around the region.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: POSSIBLE DRAWDOWN OF AMERICAN PRESENCE OBSERVED IN SYRIA. LIKELY CARTEL AMMO SHIPMENT HALTED IN COLORADO. DALLAS SCHOOL SHOOTER IDENTIFIED.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Early indications are emerging that the United States is drawing down their military presence in Syria. Details are hard to come by, however many locals have posted videos of American convoys departing several smaller bases to consolidate resources at some of the larger facilities in the region.
-HomeFront-
Texas: Yesterday afternoon, video evidence came to light regarding the school shooting that took place in Dallas two days ago. Tracy Denard Haynes Jr. posted a video confession on social media while he was evading pursuit immediately after gaining entry to the school and shooting four people. Haynes turned himself in to authorities yesterday.
Texas: Austin Metcalf's family was swatted last night, as malign actors called in a fake report of gunfire at their home in Frisco.
Colorado: Two immigrants from Mexico (admitted to the US legally) were arrested after authorities discovered a substantial arms shipment during a traffic stop near Cañon City.
AC: While it is not illegal to transport ammunition, it is illegal to do so for an immigrant admitted to the United States on a non-resident visa. Considering that media reports that roughly 180,000 small arms rounds were discovered during this traffic stop, this was probably a shipment related to various cartel operations in the United States.
Arizona: Last night, Jacob Couch passed away after being on life support after being brutally attacked in Tucson two weeks ago. His attacker, Daniel Michael, is now being charged with first-degree murder for the attack.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While largely speculative, the potential drawdown in Syria is an important indication and warning of what could be strategic movement, specifically with regards to a potential conflict with Iran. If this consolidation and reduction in forces throughout Syria is indeed genuine, it could be for any number of wildly differing reasons. In short, it could be due to the United States stepping back from escalations pertaining to Iran, or it could be a deception attempt to reduce the presence at more vulnerable and hard-to-defend bases, to reinforce other positions around the region.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
16.04.202500:48
//The Wire//2300Z April 15, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SMALL ARMS ATTACKS REPORTED AT MULTIPLE PRISONS IN FRANCE. TRACK MEET STABBING TRIAL INFLAMES SOCIAL TENSIONS. SCHOOL SHOOTING WOUNDS FOUR IN DALLAS, POLICE CONCEAL SHOOTER'S IDENTITY DESPITE SHOOTER REMAINING A FUGITIVE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
France: Over the weekend, a series of riots and attacks has taken place at various prisons around the country. Several prison gates and entrances were engaged with small arms fire by unidentified gunmen over the weekend, who conducted various levels of drive-by attacks at multiple facilities.
AC: This latest wave of attacks is probably related to the ongoing narcotics trafficking problems that have become more of a concern throughout western France. Back in November, there were several high-profile incidents arising from turf wars and counter-narcotics operations, which included several small arms skirmishes around the country. As demonstrated by the past few years of increasingly more complex attacks (including a heist that involved rescuing one of their bosses from a prison van in transit), these types of organized crime elements are becoming vastly more sophisticated than the average street criminal.
-HomeFront-
Texas: A shooting was reported at Wilmer-Hutchins High School in Dallas this afternoon. Three students were shot by another student, prompting a lockdown. The suspect has allegedly been identified, though he remains at large. Authorities have not provided a description of the shooter, and are actively concealing the shooter's identity.
AC: It is often hard to obtain the public's help in catching a wanted fugitive who engages in gunplay at a school without telling the public who the suspect is. It's one thing to conceal the identity of an active shooter who is deceased for investigative purposes, but it's entirely a different story to aid and abet a school shooter who is actively on the run.
Also in Texas, a situation is developing regarding the impending murder trial of Karmelo Anthony, who confessed to stabbing Austin Metcalf in the chest during a track meet on April 2, 2025. Anthony has been released from jail after his bail was reduced by the judge, leading to increased tensions on a local level (and also nationwide).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Under normal circumstances, a single murder (despite being horrific) is something that is more localized and not really of national or strategic significance. However, the Karmelo Anthony trial has already become a flashpoint for long-held sentiments. As distasteful as it may be to comment on, the developments in this case are probably a barometer for accurately measuring societal concerns. In short, this trial is probably our modern-day version of the OJ Simpson trial, in nearly the same manner. It's not just about a murder anymore, this is approaching concerning levels of racially-motivated violence. For instance, an online GiveSendGo donation campaign to support the killer has received overwhelming support (over 12,800 donors as of this report, totaling roughly $435,000). Mainstream media reporting from this morning suggests that the family of the killer has moved into a luxury mansion in Frisco, a detail which was confirmed by their attorneys this afternoon.
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: SMALL ARMS ATTACKS REPORTED AT MULTIPLE PRISONS IN FRANCE. TRACK MEET STABBING TRIAL INFLAMES SOCIAL TENSIONS. SCHOOL SHOOTING WOUNDS FOUR IN DALLAS, POLICE CONCEAL SHOOTER'S IDENTITY DESPITE SHOOTER REMAINING A FUGITIVE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
France: Over the weekend, a series of riots and attacks has taken place at various prisons around the country. Several prison gates and entrances were engaged with small arms fire by unidentified gunmen over the weekend, who conducted various levels of drive-by attacks at multiple facilities.
AC: This latest wave of attacks is probably related to the ongoing narcotics trafficking problems that have become more of a concern throughout western France. Back in November, there were several high-profile incidents arising from turf wars and counter-narcotics operations, which included several small arms skirmishes around the country. As demonstrated by the past few years of increasingly more complex attacks (including a heist that involved rescuing one of their bosses from a prison van in transit), these types of organized crime elements are becoming vastly more sophisticated than the average street criminal.
-HomeFront-
Texas: A shooting was reported at Wilmer-Hutchins High School in Dallas this afternoon. Three students were shot by another student, prompting a lockdown. The suspect has allegedly been identified, though he remains at large. Authorities have not provided a description of the shooter, and are actively concealing the shooter's identity.
AC: It is often hard to obtain the public's help in catching a wanted fugitive who engages in gunplay at a school without telling the public who the suspect is. It's one thing to conceal the identity of an active shooter who is deceased for investigative purposes, but it's entirely a different story to aid and abet a school shooter who is actively on the run.
Also in Texas, a situation is developing regarding the impending murder trial of Karmelo Anthony, who confessed to stabbing Austin Metcalf in the chest during a track meet on April 2, 2025. Anthony has been released from jail after his bail was reduced by the judge, leading to increased tensions on a local level (and also nationwide).
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: Under normal circumstances, a single murder (despite being horrific) is something that is more localized and not really of national or strategic significance. However, the Karmelo Anthony trial has already become a flashpoint for long-held sentiments. As distasteful as it may be to comment on, the developments in this case are probably a barometer for accurately measuring societal concerns. In short, this trial is probably our modern-day version of the OJ Simpson trial, in nearly the same manner. It's not just about a murder anymore, this is approaching concerning levels of racially-motivated violence. For instance, an online GiveSendGo donation campaign to support the killer has received overwhelming support (over 12,800 donors as of this report, totaling roughly $435,000). Mainstream media reporting from this morning suggests that the family of the killer has moved into a luxury mansion in Frisco, a detail which was confirmed by their attorneys this afternoon.
11.04.202523:33
//The Wire//2300Z April 11, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA BEGINS MORE DIRECT PEACE TALKS WITH RUSSIA. CHINA RESPONDS TO LATEST TARIFF ESCALATION. COLORADO WEAPONS BAN SIGNED INTO LAW.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: This morning President Putin met with American diplomat Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg as discussions on ending the Ukrainian war continue.
AC: As of this afternoon, nothing major resulted from today's meetings, though the tone surrounding these talks remains positive.
-HomeFront-
New York: The victims of yesterday's helicopter crash in the Hudson have been identified as Agustin Escobar, his wife, and three children. The pilot of the aircraft remains unidentified as of this morning. Escobar was a high-ranking executive for the Siemens corporation, and was the Chief of Siemens' division in Spain.
Washington D.C. - In response to the latest round of trade war escalations, China has raised their tariffs on the United States to 125%.
Washington D.C. - Concerns have been growing at Ronald Reagan National Airport (DCA) following multiple incidents over the past few weeks. Yesterday afternoon, two American Airlines aircraft collided on a taxiway at the airport, with one aircraft clipping the wing of another waiting to takeoff.
Florida: A small plane (Registration: N8930N) crashed in Boca Raton this morning, killing all three aboard the aircraft.
AC: This small private aircraft was exhibiting erratic flight immediately upon takeoff from Boca Raton Airport, with transponder data indicating the aircraft was experiencing some sort of control failure and only able to make left-hand turns. The pilot was attempting to land back at the airport when the crash occurred, with the aircraft being unable to make it back to the runway. No official cause of the crash has been released, as the incident investigation will take some time to complete as usual.
Colorado: A highly controversial disarmament bill was signed in to law yesterday, which in effect outlaws almost every single firearm that has a detachable magazine within the state.
AC: While it is certain that this law will be challenged in court, this is still the most draconian disarmament bill that's been passed recently.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While it's hard to correlate the issues at Reagan National Airport to one single point of failure, personnel problems have continued throughout the commercial aviation community at large. Two weeks ago, a fistfight broke out in the tower at DCA, with authorities arresting Damon Gaines for punching his fellow air traffic controller in the face during operations, causing brief ground stop to be issued while the scuffle in the tower was handled. Two days ago, the FAA stated that they will be offering reassignment opportunities to personnel who work in the tower at DCA. On the same day as that announcement, the FAA's lead official in charge of all traffic control operations, Tim Arel, announced his retirement after a 40 year career in air traffic management, contributing to the overall personnel concerns of the past few months.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: USA BEGINS MORE DIRECT PEACE TALKS WITH RUSSIA. CHINA RESPONDS TO LATEST TARIFF ESCALATION. COLORADO WEAPONS BAN SIGNED INTO LAW.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Russia: This morning President Putin met with American diplomat Steve Witkoff in St. Petersburg as discussions on ending the Ukrainian war continue.
AC: As of this afternoon, nothing major resulted from today's meetings, though the tone surrounding these talks remains positive.
-HomeFront-
New York: The victims of yesterday's helicopter crash in the Hudson have been identified as Agustin Escobar, his wife, and three children. The pilot of the aircraft remains unidentified as of this morning. Escobar was a high-ranking executive for the Siemens corporation, and was the Chief of Siemens' division in Spain.
Washington D.C. - In response to the latest round of trade war escalations, China has raised their tariffs on the United States to 125%.
Washington D.C. - Concerns have been growing at Ronald Reagan National Airport (DCA) following multiple incidents over the past few weeks. Yesterday afternoon, two American Airlines aircraft collided on a taxiway at the airport, with one aircraft clipping the wing of another waiting to takeoff.
Florida: A small plane (Registration: N8930N) crashed in Boca Raton this morning, killing all three aboard the aircraft.
AC: This small private aircraft was exhibiting erratic flight immediately upon takeoff from Boca Raton Airport, with transponder data indicating the aircraft was experiencing some sort of control failure and only able to make left-hand turns. The pilot was attempting to land back at the airport when the crash occurred, with the aircraft being unable to make it back to the runway. No official cause of the crash has been released, as the incident investigation will take some time to complete as usual.
Colorado: A highly controversial disarmament bill was signed in to law yesterday, which in effect outlaws almost every single firearm that has a detachable magazine within the state.
AC: While it is certain that this law will be challenged in court, this is still the most draconian disarmament bill that's been passed recently.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While it's hard to correlate the issues at Reagan National Airport to one single point of failure, personnel problems have continued throughout the commercial aviation community at large. Two weeks ago, a fistfight broke out in the tower at DCA, with authorities arresting Damon Gaines for punching his fellow air traffic controller in the face during operations, causing brief ground stop to be issued while the scuffle in the tower was handled. Two days ago, the FAA stated that they will be offering reassignment opportunities to personnel who work in the tower at DCA. On the same day as that announcement, the FAA's lead official in charge of all traffic control operations, Tim Arel, announced his retirement after a 40 year career in air traffic management, contributing to the overall personnel concerns of the past few months.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
07.04.202521:56
On the information and economic fronts, much activity has resulted from this morning's economic uncertainty. Late last night, most financial entities were preparing for a bloodbath upon the opening of the American markets this morning. As such, it's very likely that various efforts were undertaken to manipulate the information space, to buy time for big investors to make their moves. For instance, a perfectly cut-paste "news story" was circulated widely on Twitter/X shortly after the markets opened. This story claimed that President Trump was considering a 90 day pause on his tariff implementation. The origin of this story appears to be a few mainstream media outlets, but due to the timing of posts being made on social media, it could have originated from a few different accounts nearly at the same time. This caused a brief pump in the markets (lasting only a few minutes) before it became clear that this story was fake. Though completely speculative at this time, this was probably an effort to pump the markets enough for the big fish to briefly squeeze last-minute profits before dumping during the large sell-off events of the day.
In a grander sense, this somewhat minute detail that most people either didn't notice or didn't care about, highlights the nature of how "alternative" media impacts the world. Continuing the old adage of a lie traveling around the world before the truth puts on it's shoes, there are very real efforts by malign actors to manipulate the information space while also claiming to be free and independent media. Especially if a single post on social media, which has no attribution, sourcing or any sort of credibility whatsoever, can be whipped up into a frenzy that pumps the entire American stock market by about 8% for a few minutes...just long enough for someone to make billions.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
In a grander sense, this somewhat minute detail that most people either didn't notice or didn't care about, highlights the nature of how "alternative" media impacts the world. Continuing the old adage of a lie traveling around the world before the truth puts on it's shoes, there are very real efforts by malign actors to manipulate the information space while also claiming to be free and independent media. Especially if a single post on social media, which has no attribution, sourcing or any sort of credibility whatsoever, can be whipped up into a frenzy that pumps the entire American stock market by about 8% for a few minutes...just long enough for someone to make billions.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
03.04.202520:39
//The Wire//2300Z April 3, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VBIED ATTACK FAILS IN AMSTERDAM. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES GLOBAL RECIPROCAL TARIFF PLAN. TENSIONS IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: This morning a suspected terrorist attempted to detonate a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) in Amsterdam. The would-be attacker parked his vehicle centrally in Dam Square, near a group of people, before attempting to detonate the device. This attempt failed, and immolated the driver of the vehicle. Footage of the incident indicates the driver did survive his failed detonation, however his condition is unknown.
AC: Video footage of the incident very strongly indicates this was a deliberate terror attack that failed. The driver of the vehicle chose the same square in which 5x people were stabbed by a terrorist a week ago. When he attempted to detonate the device, his detonator failed and burned rather than exploding, as is an extremely common occurrence among crudely constructed IEDs.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - The White House unveiled their new global tariff plan, which has since resulted in much consternation on the international stage. The tariff plan is allegedly reciprocal, with the US planning to tax other nations the same as they tax the United States. While the mathematical process to determine each figure is more complicated than that, this is the general idea. However, in most cases the tariff's aren't reciprocal, with the United States still not taxing some nations at the level that they themselves tax the United States. The White House released several graphical charts indicating what nations will be taxed at which rate, leading most world leaders to make various statements of condemnation regarding the tariffs that affect them.
Virginia: The USS IWO JIMA (LHD-7) departed port Norfolk yesterday evening, following the conclusion of a large exercise last week.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: It is unknown if a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is embarked on the Iwo Jima, or if this is more of a standard positioning movement to the shipyard for refit after her recent exercise. The Iwo Jima should be in her Advanced Phase training for deployment right now, but the timetables for various certifications could have been accelerated following the sharp increase in wartime preparations throughout the Middle East.
Regarding the trade tariffs, the biggest international impacts will be felt by nations such as China, which is potentially facing a 34% tax increase, on top of the 20% Chinese companies already pay. This means that most goods from China will be subject to a 54% import tax if the tariffs stand as is (which will probably change with negotiation over the next few weeks). Domestically, the American stock markets responded by dumping roughly $2 trillion worth of value, mostly in the form of tech companies losing substantially as most of their business models rely on overseas labor and/or logistics which are now subject to heavy tariffs.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: VBIED ATTACK FAILS IN AMSTERDAM. WHITE HOUSE ANNOUNCES GLOBAL RECIPROCAL TARIFF PLAN. TENSIONS IN MIDDLE EAST CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Europe: This morning a suspected terrorist attempted to detonate a Vehicle-Borne Improvised Explosive Device (VBIED) in Amsterdam. The would-be attacker parked his vehicle centrally in Dam Square, near a group of people, before attempting to detonate the device. This attempt failed, and immolated the driver of the vehicle. Footage of the incident indicates the driver did survive his failed detonation, however his condition is unknown.
AC: Video footage of the incident very strongly indicates this was a deliberate terror attack that failed. The driver of the vehicle chose the same square in which 5x people were stabbed by a terrorist a week ago. When he attempted to detonate the device, his detonator failed and burned rather than exploding, as is an extremely common occurrence among crudely constructed IEDs.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - The White House unveiled their new global tariff plan, which has since resulted in much consternation on the international stage. The tariff plan is allegedly reciprocal, with the US planning to tax other nations the same as they tax the United States. While the mathematical process to determine each figure is more complicated than that, this is the general idea. However, in most cases the tariff's aren't reciprocal, with the United States still not taxing some nations at the level that they themselves tax the United States. The White House released several graphical charts indicating what nations will be taxed at which rate, leading most world leaders to make various statements of condemnation regarding the tariffs that affect them.
Virginia: The USS IWO JIMA (LHD-7) departed port Norfolk yesterday evening, following the conclusion of a large exercise last week.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: It is unknown if a Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) is embarked on the Iwo Jima, or if this is more of a standard positioning movement to the shipyard for refit after her recent exercise. The Iwo Jima should be in her Advanced Phase training for deployment right now, but the timetables for various certifications could have been accelerated following the sharp increase in wartime preparations throughout the Middle East.
Regarding the trade tariffs, the biggest international impacts will be felt by nations such as China, which is potentially facing a 34% tax increase, on top of the 20% Chinese companies already pay. This means that most goods from China will be subject to a 54% import tax if the tariffs stand as is (which will probably change with negotiation over the next few weeks). Domestically, the American stock markets responded by dumping roughly $2 trillion worth of value, mostly in the form of tech companies losing substantially as most of their business models rely on overseas labor and/or logistics which are now subject to heavy tariffs.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
23.04.202515:11
//The Wire//2200Z April 22, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TOURIST GROUP AMBUSHED IN KASHMIR, 24 DEAD. DHS SECRETARY VICTIM OF PICKPOCKET, DRAWING SECURITY CONCERNS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
India: Overnight unknown insurgents ambushed a group of tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in Kashmir. So far, the death toll stands at 24 fatalities and an unknown number of wounded as per Indian officials. PM Modi has stated that the incident was a terror attack.
AC: The timing of this attack was very likely not random. Not only did this attack take place during American VP Vance's visit to India, but this is the most significant attack in recent memory. In the wider context of the very controversial Kashmir region, the indiscriminate targeting of unarmed civilians is outside the norm for the various separatist groups that have freedom of maneuver throughout the area. As India's government has increasingly flexed their muscle in Kashmir by having an increased security presence over the years, if these attacks continue this could indicate another intensification of conflict throughout the beleaguered region.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Controversy has erupted following a minor incident involving DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, who's purse was stolen while having dinner in Washington on Sunday. The investigation into the theft is ongoing.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While the attention Noem has received since beginning her role at DHS has been palpable, this situation is the latest in highlighting the long-standing problems within federal agencies.
The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for managing the US Secret Service, which in turn is responsible for protecting high-ranking individuals who are critical to national security. A person who can get close enough to steal a purse can also do other things. As incredulous as that seems by itself, one must remember the assailant also succeeded in getting away without being noticed until afterward. It's one thing if someone snatched a purse and made it approximately 12 feet before being tackled to the ground...but in this case not one member of her security detail seemed to notice anything happened at all. This means that a malign actor was able to get within close proximity of their protectee, remove something from their possession, and egress from the area undetected.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: TOURIST GROUP AMBUSHED IN KASHMIR, 24 DEAD. DHS SECRETARY VICTIM OF PICKPOCKET, DRAWING SECURITY CONCERNS.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
India: Overnight unknown insurgents ambushed a group of tourists in the resort town of Pahalgam in Kashmir. So far, the death toll stands at 24 fatalities and an unknown number of wounded as per Indian officials. PM Modi has stated that the incident was a terror attack.
AC: The timing of this attack was very likely not random. Not only did this attack take place during American VP Vance's visit to India, but this is the most significant attack in recent memory. In the wider context of the very controversial Kashmir region, the indiscriminate targeting of unarmed civilians is outside the norm for the various separatist groups that have freedom of maneuver throughout the area. As India's government has increasingly flexed their muscle in Kashmir by having an increased security presence over the years, if these attacks continue this could indicate another intensification of conflict throughout the beleaguered region.
-HomeFront-
Washington D.C. - Controversy has erupted following a minor incident involving DHS Secretary Kristi Noem, who's purse was stolen while having dinner in Washington on Sunday. The investigation into the theft is ongoing.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: While the attention Noem has received since beginning her role at DHS has been palpable, this situation is the latest in highlighting the long-standing problems within federal agencies.
The Department of Homeland Security is responsible for managing the US Secret Service, which in turn is responsible for protecting high-ranking individuals who are critical to national security. A person who can get close enough to steal a purse can also do other things. As incredulous as that seems by itself, one must remember the assailant also succeeded in getting away without being noticed until afterward. It's one thing if someone snatched a purse and made it approximately 12 feet before being tackled to the ground...but in this case not one member of her security detail seemed to notice anything happened at all. This means that a malign actor was able to get within close proximity of their protectee, remove something from their possession, and egress from the area undetected.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
17.04.202523:35
//The Wire//2300Z April 17, 2025//
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: MASS SHOOTING ATTACK AT FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY, MULTIPLE CASUALTIES REPORTED. PLANE HIJACKED IN BELIZE, HIJACKER SHOT DEAD BY PASSENGER. DNI DECLASSIFIES DOCUMENT OUTLINING DOMESTIC DISARMAMENT INITIATIVES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Belize: A man with a knife attempted to hijack a small Tropicair flight (registration: V3-HIG) this morning. During the regional flight, authorities state that American passenger Akinyela Sawa Taylor produced a knife and attempted to seize control of the aircraft. The hijacker's demands included transit out of the country, and enough fuel to do so. In the ensuing fray, multiple passengers were stabbed, with at least one passenger receiving severe lacerations. After some time, the pilots were able to barricade themselves in the cockpit to conduct an emergency landing at Philip S. W. Goldson International Airport. After the aircraft came to a halt on the runway, a brief hostage situation ensued before Taylor was shot dead by another passenger onboard the aircraft who had a firearm.
AC: While it may seem odd for a passenger to have a gun on a plane, this was a local charter flight and the passenger who shot the hijacker was properly licensed as per the local police commissioner. Additionally, local authorities state that the hijacker was illegally in the country, and had been denied entry just a few days prior.
-HomeFront-
Florida: An active shooter was reported at Florida State University this afternoon. Initial reports indicate that two separate gunmen conducted a complex small arms (SMARMS) attack at the FSU Student Union. As of this report, 2x victims are deceased, and 4x others are wounded. Reports have varied throughout the day, however many locals suggest that one of the shooters was neutralized at the scene by police, and the second shooter was taken into custody. One of the shooters has been identified as Phoenix Eichner, the son of a local Sheriff's Deputy who used his parent's service weapons in the attack.
AC: This incident could meet the technical criteria for a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA). For the past several days the Tallahassee Police Department has been warning locals of a training exercise that would involve loud explosions and sounds of gunfire. This exercise was scheduled for the exact time the shooting occurred. If this timing was deliberately chosen, this indicates more deliberate planning efforts on the part of the shooters, who likely sought to use the confusion of a training exercise to increase the effectiveness of their attack. Since one of the shooters has been identified as the son of a Sheriff's Deputy, he would probably have had even more knowledge of this drill taking place. Choosing to conduct an attack during a training exercise would have increased confusion on the part of first responders, maybe even delayed a response time, and would have reduced the number of people calling 911, since most people would have thought that gunshots would be related to the drill, and not a legitimate terror attack.
Additionally, some of the videos and photos of the aftermath that are circulating social media right now are exceptionally anger-inducing for reasons that would not be wise to comment on at the moment.
Virginia: Throughout the defense community, several personnel shakeups have taken place at the Pentagon over the past few days. So far, the list of personnel placed on suspension is as follows:
1. Colin Carroll, Chief of Staff for the Deputy Secretary of Defense
2. Dan Caldwell, Senior Advisor to the SECDEF
3. Darin Selnick, Deputy Chief of Staff
All three have been placed on administrative leave following developments in investigations pertaining to various leaks of defense policy.
AC: At the moment, it's not really clear as to what is going on. These firings could be due to legitimate security leak reasons, or it could be for other reasons. So far, no high ranking official has commented on these suspensions, so the official story itself is hard to determine for now.
//PRIORITY//
//BLUF: MASS SHOOTING ATTACK AT FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY, MULTIPLE CASUALTIES REPORTED. PLANE HIJACKED IN BELIZE, HIJACKER SHOT DEAD BY PASSENGER. DNI DECLASSIFIES DOCUMENT OUTLINING DOMESTIC DISARMAMENT INITIATIVES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Belize: A man with a knife attempted to hijack a small Tropicair flight (registration: V3-HIG) this morning. During the regional flight, authorities state that American passenger Akinyela Sawa Taylor produced a knife and attempted to seize control of the aircraft. The hijacker's demands included transit out of the country, and enough fuel to do so. In the ensuing fray, multiple passengers were stabbed, with at least one passenger receiving severe lacerations. After some time, the pilots were able to barricade themselves in the cockpit to conduct an emergency landing at Philip S. W. Goldson International Airport. After the aircraft came to a halt on the runway, a brief hostage situation ensued before Taylor was shot dead by another passenger onboard the aircraft who had a firearm.
AC: While it may seem odd for a passenger to have a gun on a plane, this was a local charter flight and the passenger who shot the hijacker was properly licensed as per the local police commissioner. Additionally, local authorities state that the hijacker was illegally in the country, and had been denied entry just a few days prior.
-HomeFront-
Florida: An active shooter was reported at Florida State University this afternoon. Initial reports indicate that two separate gunmen conducted a complex small arms (SMARMS) attack at the FSU Student Union. As of this report, 2x victims are deceased, and 4x others are wounded. Reports have varied throughout the day, however many locals suggest that one of the shooters was neutralized at the scene by police, and the second shooter was taken into custody. One of the shooters has been identified as Phoenix Eichner, the son of a local Sheriff's Deputy who used his parent's service weapons in the attack.
AC: This incident could meet the technical criteria for a Complex Coordinated Attack (CCA). For the past several days the Tallahassee Police Department has been warning locals of a training exercise that would involve loud explosions and sounds of gunfire. This exercise was scheduled for the exact time the shooting occurred. If this timing was deliberately chosen, this indicates more deliberate planning efforts on the part of the shooters, who likely sought to use the confusion of a training exercise to increase the effectiveness of their attack. Since one of the shooters has been identified as the son of a Sheriff's Deputy, he would probably have had even more knowledge of this drill taking place. Choosing to conduct an attack during a training exercise would have increased confusion on the part of first responders, maybe even delayed a response time, and would have reduced the number of people calling 911, since most people would have thought that gunshots would be related to the drill, and not a legitimate terror attack.
Additionally, some of the videos and photos of the aftermath that are circulating social media right now are exceptionally anger-inducing for reasons that would not be wise to comment on at the moment.
Virginia: Throughout the defense community, several personnel shakeups have taken place at the Pentagon over the past few days. So far, the list of personnel placed on suspension is as follows:
1. Colin Carroll, Chief of Staff for the Deputy Secretary of Defense
2. Dan Caldwell, Senior Advisor to the SECDEF
3. Darin Selnick, Deputy Chief of Staff
All three have been placed on administrative leave following developments in investigations pertaining to various leaks of defense policy.
AC: At the moment, it's not really clear as to what is going on. These firings could be due to legitimate security leak reasons, or it could be for other reasons. So far, no high ranking official has commented on these suspensions, so the official story itself is hard to determine for now.
16.04.202500:48
In addition to the high levels of support the killer has received monetarily, online the rhetoric is in many ways more concerning. It's hard to say how much real-world mobilization these atmospherics will result in, but the open calls online for murder purely along racial lines is concerning nonetheless. This situation will probably will result in a heightened state of similarly-motivated violence; since the killer is being showered with moral and financial support, this will also be a good motivator for similar crimes to be committed by others in the near future. To put it exceptionally bluntly with the goal of conveying the importance of the atmospherics online right now: If the average street criminal thinks that they can stab someone in the chest, and in return get a mansion, a new Cadillac, a whole team of lawyers, almost half a million dollars, and cheers from the crowds, there's no telling how many violent crimes might come about.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
10.04.202521:32
//The Wire//2300Z April 10, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN IN KENTUCKY. OIL SPILL CLEANUP CONTINUES IN NORTH DAKOTA. USA/CHINA TRADE SPAT ESCALATES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
New York: This afternoon a private helicopter (tail number: N216MH) crashed in the Hudson River in the vicinity of the Holland Tunnel. As of this report, no survivors have been reported, though rescue operations are ongoing.
North Dakota: Tuesday morning a rupture was reported at the Keystone pipeline near Fort Ransom. Roughly 3,500 barrels of oil were spilled in a farmer's field as a result of the pipeline rupture.
Kentucky: Recovery efforts continue following the flooding events of the past week. Severe weather events swept through the region last week, causing widespread damage from the floods. Many areas are still inaccessible due to roads washing out, and debris generally causing challenges with transportation.
Washington D.C. - Tariff shenanigans continue as the White House clarifies the math on the total tariffs on China. So far, the final tally as of this morning is that a 145% tariff on all imports from China is in effect.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the helicopter crash in New York is a developing situation, not much is confirmed. Eyewitnesses state that the aircraft broke up mid-flight, with no obvious signs of distress or mechanical failure before the incident. Analysis of the aircraft's transponder data does not indicate any abnormal flight pattern before the incident that may indicate what happened.
Of note, misleading videos are already circulating on social media, being pushed by very big accounts. An older video of a similar helicopter showing erratic flight is being falsely claimed to be from this incident, when in reality that footage was from a few years ago. In today's age, misleading, old, or even outright fake video clips always circulate on social media in the minutes after a disaster. Despite this, most people on social media quickly forget the accounts that push fake information, thus continuing the circus the next time something happens.
In North Dakota, no cause was reported for the Keystone pipeline incident. However, the impacts will continue to be felt as the pipeline remains shut down (almost three days after the incident) while repairs are underway. This pipeline transports on average 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day, so any downtime whatsoever will probably negatively impact the prices of petroleum products while repairs continue.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN IN KENTUCKY. OIL SPILL CLEANUP CONTINUES IN NORTH DAKOTA. USA/CHINA TRADE SPAT ESCALATES.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-HomeFront-
New York: This afternoon a private helicopter (tail number: N216MH) crashed in the Hudson River in the vicinity of the Holland Tunnel. As of this report, no survivors have been reported, though rescue operations are ongoing.
North Dakota: Tuesday morning a rupture was reported at the Keystone pipeline near Fort Ransom. Roughly 3,500 barrels of oil were spilled in a farmer's field as a result of the pipeline rupture.
Kentucky: Recovery efforts continue following the flooding events of the past week. Severe weather events swept through the region last week, causing widespread damage from the floods. Many areas are still inaccessible due to roads washing out, and debris generally causing challenges with transportation.
Washington D.C. - Tariff shenanigans continue as the White House clarifies the math on the total tariffs on China. So far, the final tally as of this morning is that a 145% tariff on all imports from China is in effect.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: As the helicopter crash in New York is a developing situation, not much is confirmed. Eyewitnesses state that the aircraft broke up mid-flight, with no obvious signs of distress or mechanical failure before the incident. Analysis of the aircraft's transponder data does not indicate any abnormal flight pattern before the incident that may indicate what happened.
Of note, misleading videos are already circulating on social media, being pushed by very big accounts. An older video of a similar helicopter showing erratic flight is being falsely claimed to be from this incident, when in reality that footage was from a few years ago. In today's age, misleading, old, or even outright fake video clips always circulate on social media in the minutes after a disaster. Despite this, most people on social media quickly forget the accounts that push fake information, thus continuing the circus the next time something happens.
In North Dakota, no cause was reported for the Keystone pipeline incident. However, the impacts will continue to be felt as the pipeline remains shut down (almost three days after the incident) while repairs are underway. This pipeline transports on average 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day, so any downtime whatsoever will probably negatively impact the prices of petroleum products while repairs continue.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
05.04.202522:41
This week's intel update is out! https://youtu.be/1vpWG12z7Qs
02.04.202520:59
//The Wire//2300Z April 2, 2025//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT CARRIERS DEPLOY TO MIDDLE EAST, STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENTS CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant Naval deployments are either underway currently, or have been recently announced. Yesterday afternoon CENTCOM announced several operational changes throughout the AOR. The USS HARRY S. TRUMAN (CVN-75) CSG's deployment has been extended, with the TRUMAN remaining in the Middle East theatre. The USS CARL VINSON (CVN-70) has also been transferred from INDOPACOM to the CENTCOM area of responsibility, and is currently making all sail for the Middle East. On Friday, the USS NIMITZ (CVN-68) departed San Diego on her final deployment before retirement, and will be heading to the western Pacific. This morning, the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN (CVN-72) departed port San Diego as well. Yesterday morning commercial satellite imagery confirmed that another B2 Spirit stealth bomber landed at Diego Garcia, bringing the total on the island to 6x bombers, plus their required refueling tankers.
-HomeFront-
California: Monday night a murder was reported at a Walgreens in Fresno. Local authorities state that Narciso Gallardo Fernandez entered the establishment late Monday night, and murdered one of the employees due to his grievances with large pharmaceutical companies. Fernandez was arrested at the scene, while attempting to reload his firearm in the parking lot.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The indications and warnings of an impending war in the Middle East continue to mount. The proverbial deployment of aircraft carriers before a major war appears to have arrived. In closed-source, confidential reporting, NBC has claimed that the Pentagon has authorized the deployment of one THAAD battery, and at least two Patriot batteries to augment missile defense throughout the Middle East. Though this cannot be independently confirmed yet, if this is true this would be yet another indication that wartime preparations continue, beyond what would normally be considered to be posturing or power-projection.
Domestically, various political protests are scheduled for April 5th. The "HandsOff" protests originated from organized labor unions, however most far-left groups are also planning to use the day to conduct low-level attacks, such as vandalism against Tesla vehicles. Of course, the impact that these events will have is dictated mostly by funding; events involving labor unions will obviously be much larger than smaller and uncoordinated groups of malign actors seeking to break things. Nevertheless, increased vigilance is recommended, particularly in areas where Tesla vehicles and Trump supporters have been targeted so far.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
//ROUTINE//
//BLUF: MULTIPLE AMERICAN AIRCRAFT CARRIERS DEPLOY TO MIDDLE EAST, STRATEGIC DEPLOYMENTS CONTINUE.//
-----BEGIN TEARLINE-----
-International Events-
Middle East: Significant Naval deployments are either underway currently, or have been recently announced. Yesterday afternoon CENTCOM announced several operational changes throughout the AOR. The USS HARRY S. TRUMAN (CVN-75) CSG's deployment has been extended, with the TRUMAN remaining in the Middle East theatre. The USS CARL VINSON (CVN-70) has also been transferred from INDOPACOM to the CENTCOM area of responsibility, and is currently making all sail for the Middle East. On Friday, the USS NIMITZ (CVN-68) departed San Diego on her final deployment before retirement, and will be heading to the western Pacific. This morning, the USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN (CVN-72) departed port San Diego as well. Yesterday morning commercial satellite imagery confirmed that another B2 Spirit stealth bomber landed at Diego Garcia, bringing the total on the island to 6x bombers, plus their required refueling tankers.
-HomeFront-
California: Monday night a murder was reported at a Walgreens in Fresno. Local authorities state that Narciso Gallardo Fernandez entered the establishment late Monday night, and murdered one of the employees due to his grievances with large pharmaceutical companies. Fernandez was arrested at the scene, while attempting to reload his firearm in the parking lot.
-----END TEARLINE-----
Analyst Comments: The indications and warnings of an impending war in the Middle East continue to mount. The proverbial deployment of aircraft carriers before a major war appears to have arrived. In closed-source, confidential reporting, NBC has claimed that the Pentagon has authorized the deployment of one THAAD battery, and at least two Patriot batteries to augment missile defense throughout the Middle East. Though this cannot be independently confirmed yet, if this is true this would be yet another indication that wartime preparations continue, beyond what would normally be considered to be posturing or power-projection.
Domestically, various political protests are scheduled for April 5th. The "HandsOff" protests originated from organized labor unions, however most far-left groups are also planning to use the day to conduct low-level attacks, such as vandalism against Tesla vehicles. Of course, the impact that these events will have is dictated mostly by funding; events involving labor unions will obviously be much larger than smaller and uncoordinated groups of malign actors seeking to break things. Nevertheless, increased vigilance is recommended, particularly in areas where Tesla vehicles and Trump supporters have been targeted so far.
Analyst: S2A1
Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground
//END REPORT//
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