📌 Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day – April 15, 2025
1️⃣ New Tariff Targets: Semis & Pharma
The Trump administration is moving forward with fresh tariffs on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports, launching new probes via the Commerce Department. China retaliated by halting Boeing aircraft deliveries, intensifying the trade war.
2️⃣ Auto Tariffs May Be Paused 🚗
Markets are catching a breather after Trump hinted at a pause in auto tariffs, helping lift investor sentiment. This follows last week’s suspension of tariffs on some consumer electronics.
3️⃣ Japan Trade Talks Coming 🇺🇸🇯🇵
Japan is next at the table for trade talks with the US this week. The outcome will test if America’s closest allies get any trade relief — or if Trump’s “reciprocal” policy holds firm across the board.
4️⃣ Bank Earnings on Deck 💰
Citigroup and Bank of America report earnings this morning, fresh off a record quarter for equity trading. Johnson & Johnson and United Airlines also release Q1 results — both under the cloud of looming tariffs.
5️⃣ IEA Cuts Global Oil Demand Forecast 🛢
The International Energy Agency slashed its oil demand forecast for 2025, and in a first look at 2026, warned of a persistent global supply surplus. Crude prices fell on the news.
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📉 Markets Breathe — But Anxiety Remains
Markets have stabilized… but “calm” doesn’t mean “safe.”
The S&P 500 has bounced 12% from last week’s intraday low. Yet investor sentiment, per Bank of America’s latest survey, is the most pessimistic in 30 years 😬 — a disconnect that could spell trouble.
💡 Traders are hopeful but wary:
“One press conference or post on X could spark new headwinds.”
– Adam Phillips, EP Wealth Advisors
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📊 Market Snapshot (as of 5:56 AM EST)
• S&P 500 Futures: ⬆️ +0.05%
• Stoxx Europe 600: ⬆️ +1.08%
• US 10Y Yield: ⬆️ 4.378%
• Nikkei 225: ⬆️ +0.84%
• WTI Crude: ⬇️ -0.52% at $61.21
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📉 Bond Watch
📉 Treasury yields stabilized after a 5-day rout, but the risk premium on 10-year bonds is now at a 10-year high — a reflection of deepening investor uncertainty about the US as a safe-haven.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tried to calm nerves:
“We have tools to steady the market… No evidence of foreign selling of Treasuries.”
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📈 On the Move: Stocks in Focus
• LVMH ⬇️ 6.7% after disappointing luxury sales — now overtaken by Hermès as the most valuable luxury brand
• Boeing ⬇️ 2.7% — China halts aircraft deliveries
• Allegro MicroSystems ⬇️ 12% — ON Semiconductor pulled takeover bid
• BE Semiconductor ⬆️ 8.2% — Applied Materials took a 9% stake
• Applied Digital ⬇️ 12% — Q3 revenue and profit missed expectations
• Johnson & Johnson and United Airlines: Eyes on guidance amid trade war fallout
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💳 Bond Market Action: Buying the Dip?
Bill Eigen of JPMorgan says he’s back in the game 🧠💵
After hoarding cash for three years, he’s buying high-yield credit, convertible bonds, and debt-focused ETFs. Why?
“You’re finally being compensated for the risks.”
– Bill Eigen, JPM Strategic Income Fund
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🗣 Word from Wall Street
“We’re reviewing our retail prices every day. They have to go up significantly.”
– Nick Mowbray, Co-founder, Zuru Group Toys
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