Анатолий Шарий
Реальний Київ | Украина
Лёха в Short’ах Long’ует
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Труха⚡️Україна
Николаевский Ванёк
Инсайдер UA
Реальна Війна | Україна | Новини
Лачен пише
Анатолий Шарий
Реальний Київ | Украина
Лёха в Short’ах Long’ует
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Труха⚡️Україна
Николаевский Ванёк
Инсайдер UA
Реальна Війна | Україна | Новини
Лачен пише
Анатолий Шарий
Реальний Київ | Украина
Лёха в Short’ах Long’ует
QCP Broadcast
记录
24.04.202523:59
14.6K订阅者29.03.202512:36
1600引用指数15.01.202523:59
3.2K每帖平均覆盖率10.10.202423:59
1.1K广告帖子的平均覆盖率12.04.202523:59
3.93%ER15.01.202523:59
22.67%ERR23.04.202509:25
QCP Asia Colour – 23 April 25
When the Noise Becomes the Signal
Just when markets seemed saturated with headlines, a blockbuster $3 billion Bitcoin fund has taken center stage. In an audacious move, Cantor, SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex are aligning to launch 21 Capital (tentatively titled), a bold BTC acquisition vehicle led by Brandon Lutnick.
The fund plans to raise an additional $350 million via convertible bonds, alongside a $200 million private equity round, with one clear directive: buy more Bitcoin, and buy it big. The structure channels early echoes of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet once dominated headlines.
But 21 Capital brings a new twist: converting BTC holdings into equity, issuing shares priced at $10, effectively valuing Bitcoin at $85,000 per coin. For many, this isn’t just another fund, it’s a prototype for institutionalizing crypto exposure at scale.
Timing is Everything
The launch comes on the heels of a decisive shift in U.S. policy posture, as the Trump administration leans into the “digital gold” narrative, lending political tailwinds to crypto markets.
Bitcoin has surged past the prior $88.8k technical ceiling, clearing the psychological $90k mark to trade at an eye-watering $93.5k. Meanwhile, Gold has slid 6 percent, underscoring a renewed appetite for risk and a clear rotation into digital assets.
Institutions are no longer testing crypto’s waters. They are diving in headfirst. As Strategy’s playbook fades from the spotlight, 21 Capital looks set to become the new standard-bearer for crypto conviction.
Macro: Less Uncertainty, Not No Risk
Macro risks remain, but one critical overhang appears to be cleared. Trump is signaling no intention to replace Fed Chair Powell for now. The reassurance has prompted a modest pullback in long-end yields, helping reduce a key tail risk.
Despite calmer bond markets, U.S. equities remain tethered near record highs at $5,400, reflecting a more tempered and cautious response. The broader outlook, however, is anything but simple. Trade frictions, geopolitical jitters, and regulatory opacity continue to cast long shadows.
Investors are navigating a rapidly shifting landscape, remaining sharply attuned to the next potential inflection point.
When the Noise Becomes the Signal
Just when markets seemed saturated with headlines, a blockbuster $3 billion Bitcoin fund has taken center stage. In an audacious move, Cantor, SoftBank, Tether, and Bitfinex are aligning to launch 21 Capital (tentatively titled), a bold BTC acquisition vehicle led by Brandon Lutnick.
The fund plans to raise an additional $350 million via convertible bonds, alongside a $200 million private equity round, with one clear directive: buy more Bitcoin, and buy it big. The structure channels early echoes of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), whose Bitcoin-heavy balance sheet once dominated headlines.
But 21 Capital brings a new twist: converting BTC holdings into equity, issuing shares priced at $10, effectively valuing Bitcoin at $85,000 per coin. For many, this isn’t just another fund, it’s a prototype for institutionalizing crypto exposure at scale.
Timing is Everything
The launch comes on the heels of a decisive shift in U.S. policy posture, as the Trump administration leans into the “digital gold” narrative, lending political tailwinds to crypto markets.
Bitcoin has surged past the prior $88.8k technical ceiling, clearing the psychological $90k mark to trade at an eye-watering $93.5k. Meanwhile, Gold has slid 6 percent, underscoring a renewed appetite for risk and a clear rotation into digital assets.
Institutions are no longer testing crypto’s waters. They are diving in headfirst. As Strategy’s playbook fades from the spotlight, 21 Capital looks set to become the new standard-bearer for crypto conviction.
Macro: Less Uncertainty, Not No Risk
Macro risks remain, but one critical overhang appears to be cleared. Trump is signaling no intention to replace Fed Chair Powell for now. The reassurance has prompted a modest pullback in long-end yields, helping reduce a key tail risk.
Despite calmer bond markets, U.S. equities remain tethered near record highs at $5,400, reflecting a more tempered and cautious response. The broader outlook, however, is anything but simple. Trade frictions, geopolitical jitters, and regulatory opacity continue to cast long shadows.
Investors are navigating a rapidly shifting landscape, remaining sharply attuned to the next potential inflection point.
21.04.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour - 21 April 25
Bitcoin staged an Easter resurrection of its own, surging past $87k during early Asia hours in a sharp reversal that clawed back much of the selloff sparked by former President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April. While crypto markets are no strangers to illiquid, long-weekend rallies, this move stood in stark contrast to December’s muted Santa Rally. This time, BTC delivered.
But Bitcoin wasn’t alone. Gold also spiked to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by renewed trade war tensions and a weakening US dollar. With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation.
Indeed, we’re already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF flows turned positive last week with net inflows of $13.4 million, a stark contrast to the previous week’s $708 million in outflows. In options markets, positioning has turned more balanced. Risk reversals across tenors have flattened out, diverging from the persistent near-dated put skew that has dominated for weeks.
So was today’s tandem rally in BTC and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards BTC as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between BTC, gold and equities is one to watch closely.
For now, we’re keeping our eyes on the key $88.8k resistance level. Until that breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing any firm conclusions.
Bitcoin staged an Easter resurrection of its own, surging past $87k during early Asia hours in a sharp reversal that clawed back much of the selloff sparked by former President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April. While crypto markets are no strangers to illiquid, long-weekend rallies, this move stood in stark contrast to December’s muted Santa Rally. This time, BTC delivered.
But Bitcoin wasn’t alone. Gold also spiked to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by renewed trade war tensions and a weakening US dollar. With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation.
Indeed, we’re already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF flows turned positive last week with net inflows of $13.4 million, a stark contrast to the previous week’s $708 million in outflows. In options markets, positioning has turned more balanced. Risk reversals across tenors have flattened out, diverging from the persistent near-dated put skew that has dominated for weeks.
So was today’s tandem rally in BTC and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards BTC as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between BTC, gold and equities is one to watch closely.
For now, we’re keeping our eyes on the key $88.8k resistance level. Until that breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing any firm conclusions.
13.05.202508:59
QCP Asia Colour – 13 May 2025
A dull weekend? Not this time. In a breakthrough moment for global trade, the U.S. and China have agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs. U.S. duties on most Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while China will cut levies on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The détente sparked a sharp risk rally, with U.S. equities gapping 3% higher at the open as markets priced in a resurgence of cross-border flows.
Gold, a traditional hedge against uncertainty and protectionism, tumbled nearly 3% on the news before paring losses. The return to a more orthodox macro regime - USD stronger, Treasury yields firmer, gold weaker - has encouraged renewed vol selling across asset classes. The VIX is now back down to 18, and BTC front-end vols have compressed by over 5 vols.
BTC and ETH initially dipped on the tariff announcement and are now stabilizing around $103K and $2.4K respectively. But under the surface, signs of rotation are emerging. BTC dominance has slipped below 63%, while alts, particularly ETH, are beginning to outperform.
BTC remains caught in a tug-of-war between its identity as “digital gold” and its function as a risk-on proxy. This tension continues to obscure its directional conviction. As the macro narrative moves from protectionism toward renewed trade optimism, BTC could remain range-bound. Still, the broader pivot may shape derivatives flows. Longer investment horizons tend to support back-end options demand, reduce the need for front-end put hedging, and contribute to a steepening vol curve.
ETH, by contrast, appears to be constructing a cleaner story. Funding remains neutral, and options skew toward puts over calls, indicating that the breakout is not driven by speculative excess. The clean move above 2,400 aligns with the Pectra upgrade rollout. We are also beginning to see a re-emergence of longer-dated option flows, which could be an early sign that ETH is positioning itself as the market’s next major allocation play.
A dull weekend? Not this time. In a breakthrough moment for global trade, the U.S. and China have agreed to temporarily roll back tariffs. U.S. duties on most Chinese imports will plunge from 145% to 30%, while China will cut levies on U.S. goods from 125% to 10%. The détente sparked a sharp risk rally, with U.S. equities gapping 3% higher at the open as markets priced in a resurgence of cross-border flows.
Gold, a traditional hedge against uncertainty and protectionism, tumbled nearly 3% on the news before paring losses. The return to a more orthodox macro regime - USD stronger, Treasury yields firmer, gold weaker - has encouraged renewed vol selling across asset classes. The VIX is now back down to 18, and BTC front-end vols have compressed by over 5 vols.
BTC and ETH initially dipped on the tariff announcement and are now stabilizing around $103K and $2.4K respectively. But under the surface, signs of rotation are emerging. BTC dominance has slipped below 63%, while alts, particularly ETH, are beginning to outperform.
BTC remains caught in a tug-of-war between its identity as “digital gold” and its function as a risk-on proxy. This tension continues to obscure its directional conviction. As the macro narrative moves from protectionism toward renewed trade optimism, BTC could remain range-bound. Still, the broader pivot may shape derivatives flows. Longer investment horizons tend to support back-end options demand, reduce the need for front-end put hedging, and contribute to a steepening vol curve.
ETH, by contrast, appears to be constructing a cleaner story. Funding remains neutral, and options skew toward puts over calls, indicating that the breakout is not driven by speculative excess. The clean move above 2,400 aligns with the Pectra upgrade rollout. We are also beginning to see a re-emergence of longer-dated option flows, which could be an early sign that ETH is positioning itself as the market’s next major allocation play.
16.04.202509:41
QCP Asia Colour - 16 April 25
The Art of the Deal
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory".
Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market's preferred store of value.
Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.
But where's Bitcoin in all this?
Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The "alternative store of value" narrative isn't gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.
The Art of the Deal
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory".
Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market's preferred store of value.
Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.
But where's Bitcoin in all this?
Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The "alternative store of value" narrative isn't gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.
06.05.202508:32
QCP Asia Colour – 6 May 2025
Could FX be the fulcrum of the next big move?
We witnessed a remarkable 8% rally in the Taiwanese Dollar (TWD) on Monday, accompanied by a broad-based move higher in the Korean Won and other APAC currencies with large, persistent current account surpluses relative to the US dollar.
The spread between TWD spot and the 1Y NDF widened to an extraordinary 3,000 points, its broadest in two decades, amid trading volumes unseen since the 2008 financial crisis.
What’s driving this, and why does it matter?
Taiwan is a key net exporter to the US, anchored by its dominant semiconductor industry. While this trade surplus typically drives structural TWD strength, it is usually offset by steady capital outflows. Taiwanese residents hold significant unhedged USD-denominated assets, which helps balance the currency dynamics.
The abrupt appreciation in TWD appears to stem from growing speculation around a potential US-Taiwan trade pact, coupled with heightened hedging flows from domestic life insurers managing USD exposure.
This situation recalls the sharp carry trade unwind in JPY on August 4 last year. Japan’s deep negative yield differential with the US became untenable in the face of macro shifts. Although TWD lacks the global reserve status of JPY, the move could be an early signal of broader positioning risks in the FX complex and a potential realignment in global capital flows.
Why should crypto care?
Crypto implied vols remain suppressed, with front-end skew drifting back toward neutral and spot largely directionless.
At the same time, the FX shakeup coincides with a nearly 3% surge in gold on Monday, as investors lean into the weaker-dollar narrative and price in geopolitical risk premia, including prospective US trade diplomacy.
From here, the path appears increasingly binary.
On one hand, we could see a volatility shock, where BTC decouples from gold’s safe haven bid and relinks with broader risk proxies.
Alternatively, it serves as a tailwind for trade diplomacy. A stronger TWD reinforces Taiwan’s negotiating leverage, which could accelerate the likelihood of a US trade agreement.
In a market where correlations are fraying, FX may once again be the canary in the macro coalmine.
Could FX be the fulcrum of the next big move?
We witnessed a remarkable 8% rally in the Taiwanese Dollar (TWD) on Monday, accompanied by a broad-based move higher in the Korean Won and other APAC currencies with large, persistent current account surpluses relative to the US dollar.
The spread between TWD spot and the 1Y NDF widened to an extraordinary 3,000 points, its broadest in two decades, amid trading volumes unseen since the 2008 financial crisis.
What’s driving this, and why does it matter?
Taiwan is a key net exporter to the US, anchored by its dominant semiconductor industry. While this trade surplus typically drives structural TWD strength, it is usually offset by steady capital outflows. Taiwanese residents hold significant unhedged USD-denominated assets, which helps balance the currency dynamics.
The abrupt appreciation in TWD appears to stem from growing speculation around a potential US-Taiwan trade pact, coupled with heightened hedging flows from domestic life insurers managing USD exposure.
This situation recalls the sharp carry trade unwind in JPY on August 4 last year. Japan’s deep negative yield differential with the US became untenable in the face of macro shifts. Although TWD lacks the global reserve status of JPY, the move could be an early signal of broader positioning risks in the FX complex and a potential realignment in global capital flows.
Why should crypto care?
Crypto implied vols remain suppressed, with front-end skew drifting back toward neutral and spot largely directionless.
At the same time, the FX shakeup coincides with a nearly 3% surge in gold on Monday, as investors lean into the weaker-dollar narrative and price in geopolitical risk premia, including prospective US trade diplomacy.
From here, the path appears increasingly binary.
On one hand, we could see a volatility shock, where BTC decouples from gold’s safe haven bid and relinks with broader risk proxies.
Alternatively, it serves as a tailwind for trade diplomacy. A stronger TWD reinforces Taiwan’s negotiating leverage, which could accelerate the likelihood of a US trade agreement.
In a market where correlations are fraying, FX may once again be the canary in the macro coalmine.
25.04.202503:27
QCP Asia Colour – 25 April 25
A sigh of relief
President Trump dialled down his usual pressure campaign this week, temporarily shelving critiques of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and easing up on China. Despite persistent frustrations over the Fed’s hesitation to cut rates, the President reassured investors Wednesday morning that Powell’s job is safe. In a notable shift, he also acknowledged that the 145% tariff on Chinese goods is “very high” and promised it “will come down substantially.”
Markets welcomed the pause in hostilities. Bitcoin surged to an intraday high of $94.5K, extending its rally to five consecutive days, as broader risk sentiment stabilised.
Achievement unlocked
As BTC reclaimed the $94K handle, it briefly became the fifth-largest asset globally by market capitalisation, overtaking Alphabet (Google) for the first time. Although it has since moderated to around $93K, placing it seventh, the symbolic milestone reflects the ongoing maturation of the asset class.
This momentum is underpinned by deepening institutional participation, with emerging players like 21 Capital helping cement Bitcoin’s place among the world's most valuable assets.
Remember to monitor positioning closely
With BTC holding firmly above $90K, sentiment is becoming increasingly optimistic. Call options at $95K strikes for end-April and end-May expiries have dominated flow, pointing to a tactical appetite for further upside.
Still, with macro risks temporarily subdued and trade tensions cooling, BTC is likely to consolidate in a narrow $90K–$94.5K range while awaiting a catalyst for a decisive push toward the elusive $100K mark.
Given the pace of the recent rally, we remain tactically cautious. Positioning has become more crowded, which could lead to sharper reactions around key levels. Market participants appear to be watching closely for signs of continuation or exhaustion.
A sigh of relief
President Trump dialled down his usual pressure campaign this week, temporarily shelving critiques of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and easing up on China. Despite persistent frustrations over the Fed’s hesitation to cut rates, the President reassured investors Wednesday morning that Powell’s job is safe. In a notable shift, he also acknowledged that the 145% tariff on Chinese goods is “very high” and promised it “will come down substantially.”
Markets welcomed the pause in hostilities. Bitcoin surged to an intraday high of $94.5K, extending its rally to five consecutive days, as broader risk sentiment stabilised.
Achievement unlocked
As BTC reclaimed the $94K handle, it briefly became the fifth-largest asset globally by market capitalisation, overtaking Alphabet (Google) for the first time. Although it has since moderated to around $93K, placing it seventh, the symbolic milestone reflects the ongoing maturation of the asset class.
This momentum is underpinned by deepening institutional participation, with emerging players like 21 Capital helping cement Bitcoin’s place among the world's most valuable assets.
Remember to monitor positioning closely
With BTC holding firmly above $90K, sentiment is becoming increasingly optimistic. Call options at $95K strikes for end-April and end-May expiries have dominated flow, pointing to a tactical appetite for further upside.
Still, with macro risks temporarily subdued and trade tensions cooling, BTC is likely to consolidate in a narrow $90K–$94.5K range while awaiting a catalyst for a decisive push toward the elusive $100K mark.
Given the pace of the recent rally, we remain tactically cautious. Positioning has become more crowded, which could lead to sharper reactions around key levels. Market participants appear to be watching closely for signs of continuation or exhaustion.
05.05.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour – 5 May 25
Data shows resilience, but uncertainty still looms
Friday’s macro data offered a nuanced snapshot of the U.S. economy. Nonfarm payrolls climbed by 177k, beating expectations of 133k, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Beneath the headline strength, however, economists continue to warn that the full economic impact of recently imposed tariffs has yet to emerge.
Markets responded with cautious optimism. A blend of resilient data and hopes for a potential thaw in trade tensions helped extend the S&P 500’s winning streak to 10 consecutive sessions. This effectively reversed the selloff seen after Liberation Day.
Earnings season winds down—focus shifts back to trade and the Fed
With earnings season drawing to a close, market attention is turning back to the two dominant macro overhangs: U.S.–China trade negotiations and Federal Reserve policy.
U.S. equity futures slipped after President Trump confirmed he has no plans to speak with China’s leadership this week. However, he indicated that trade deals with other unnamed partners could be announced soon, keeping markets on edge.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this week’s policy meeting. Although PCE data shows that inflationary pressures are easing, heightened import tariffs risk reigniting price instability. The key question remains whether the Fed will continue to resist political pressure from Trump to cut rates or consider a shift in stance.
Strategy doubles down on Bitcoin
Despite reporting a record first-quarter loss, Strategy has doubled its capital-raising target to 84 billion dollars. The loss was driven by the adoption of new mark-to-market accounting rules for digital assets. This latest move underscores the company’s continued conviction in its long-term Bitcoin strategy.
At the same time, steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs point to sustained institutional demand and reinforce the asset’s growing role in diversified portfolios.
Data shows resilience, but uncertainty still looms
Friday’s macro data offered a nuanced snapshot of the U.S. economy. Nonfarm payrolls climbed by 177k, beating expectations of 133k, while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%. Beneath the headline strength, however, economists continue to warn that the full economic impact of recently imposed tariffs has yet to emerge.
Markets responded with cautious optimism. A blend of resilient data and hopes for a potential thaw in trade tensions helped extend the S&P 500’s winning streak to 10 consecutive sessions. This effectively reversed the selloff seen after Liberation Day.
Earnings season winds down—focus shifts back to trade and the Fed
With earnings season drawing to a close, market attention is turning back to the two dominant macro overhangs: U.S.–China trade negotiations and Federal Reserve policy.
U.S. equity futures slipped after President Trump confirmed he has no plans to speak with China’s leadership this week. However, he indicated that trade deals with other unnamed partners could be announced soon, keeping markets on edge.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at this week’s policy meeting. Although PCE data shows that inflationary pressures are easing, heightened import tariffs risk reigniting price instability. The key question remains whether the Fed will continue to resist political pressure from Trump to cut rates or consider a shift in stance.
Strategy doubles down on Bitcoin
Despite reporting a record first-quarter loss, Strategy has doubled its capital-raising target to 84 billion dollars. The loss was driven by the adoption of new mark-to-market accounting rules for digital assets. This latest move underscores the company’s continued conviction in its long-term Bitcoin strategy.
At the same time, steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs point to sustained institutional demand and reinforce the asset’s growing role in diversified portfolios.
08.05.202510:08
QCP Asia Colour – 8 May 2025
No News is Good News
As expected, last night’s FOMC meeting offered little in the way of surprises. The Fed left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged and reiterated its well-worn narrative: a resilient US economy, a tight labour market, and inflation still hovering just above the 2% target.
While the resurfacing of trade tensions via President Trump’s proposed tariffs injects fresh uncertainty into the US economic outlook, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained cautious but composed. He reiterated that the costs of patience are “fairly low,” signalling no urgency to cut rates. Importantly, Powell sidestepped any commitment on the number of potential cuts this year, choosing instead to defer that guidance to the June FOMC meeting.
Markets, however, are not waiting. Current pricing reflects expectations for three 25bps cuts in July, September, and December.
Major Trade Deal Teased – Risk-On Returns
President Trump sparked a wave of risk-on sentiment early this morning by teasing a major trade agreement, with market speculation pointing to the United Kingdom as the likely counterparty. While the announcement lacks detail, the prospect alone was enough to jolt price action across asset classes.
Crypto assets responded swiftly and positively. Bitcoin climbed 2.74%, decisively reclaiming the psychological $99K level. Meanwhile, Ethereum surged 6.89% during the Asia session, breaking out of its three-week consolidation range between $1,700 and $1,900.
On the options desk, we saw a pronounced uptick in demand for topside calls, particularly those expiring in May and June. This flow indicates growing optimism as traders position for further upside in response to the improving macro backdrop.
Cautiously Constructive
Heading into tonight’s US open, all eyes will be on whether this rally can sustain or whether it risks a textbook “buy the rumour, sell the news” unwind once the trade partner is formally confirmed.
For now, we remain tactically cautious. Until BTC can close above the $100K handle on the daily, we see limited reward in chasing momentum at current levels.
No News is Good News
As expected, last night’s FOMC meeting offered little in the way of surprises. The Fed left the Fed Funds Rate unchanged and reiterated its well-worn narrative: a resilient US economy, a tight labour market, and inflation still hovering just above the 2% target.
While the resurfacing of trade tensions via President Trump’s proposed tariffs injects fresh uncertainty into the US economic outlook, Fed Chair Jerome Powell remained cautious but composed. He reiterated that the costs of patience are “fairly low,” signalling no urgency to cut rates. Importantly, Powell sidestepped any commitment on the number of potential cuts this year, choosing instead to defer that guidance to the June FOMC meeting.
Markets, however, are not waiting. Current pricing reflects expectations for three 25bps cuts in July, September, and December.
Major Trade Deal Teased – Risk-On Returns
President Trump sparked a wave of risk-on sentiment early this morning by teasing a major trade agreement, with market speculation pointing to the United Kingdom as the likely counterparty. While the announcement lacks detail, the prospect alone was enough to jolt price action across asset classes.
Crypto assets responded swiftly and positively. Bitcoin climbed 2.74%, decisively reclaiming the psychological $99K level. Meanwhile, Ethereum surged 6.89% during the Asia session, breaking out of its three-week consolidation range between $1,700 and $1,900.
On the options desk, we saw a pronounced uptick in demand for topside calls, particularly those expiring in May and June. This flow indicates growing optimism as traders position for further upside in response to the improving macro backdrop.
Cautiously Constructive
Heading into tonight’s US open, all eyes will be on whether this rally can sustain or whether it risks a textbook “buy the rumour, sell the news” unwind once the trade partner is formally confirmed.
For now, we remain tactically cautious. Until BTC can close above the $100K handle on the daily, we see limited reward in chasing momentum at current levels.
22.04.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour - 22 April 25
Not everything that glitters is gold - some of it runs on blockchain.
Gold extended its scorching rally overnight, breaking decisively above $3,500 an ounce. The move underscores a broader flight from U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar, as concerns around Federal Reserve independence escalate. Market jitters have intensified amid Trump’s sustained calls for rate cuts, alongside speculation that he may be exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Digital or not, gold is winning. Bitcoin punched to its highest levels since early April, buoyed by strong spot demand during U.S. trading hours. Spot volumes eclipsed perpetuals, with the largest Coinbase premium in months and $381.3 million in BTC spot ETF inflows, both signaling resurgent institutional interest.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative. As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. The BTC options market is now flashing persistent call skew across all tenors.
Meanwhile, stress fractures are beginning to show in U.S. credit. According to Bloomberg, the cost of insuring high-grade credit against default climbed to a one-week high, highlighting investor unease. With the Trump-Fed standoff set to escalate, markets may need to brace for further volatility.
For now, gold and Bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety.
Not everything that glitters is gold - some of it runs on blockchain.
Gold extended its scorching rally overnight, breaking decisively above $3,500 an ounce. The move underscores a broader flight from U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar, as concerns around Federal Reserve independence escalate. Market jitters have intensified amid Trump’s sustained calls for rate cuts, alongside speculation that he may be exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Digital or not, gold is winning. Bitcoin punched to its highest levels since early April, buoyed by strong spot demand during U.S. trading hours. Spot volumes eclipsed perpetuals, with the largest Coinbase premium in months and $381.3 million in BTC spot ETF inflows, both signaling resurgent institutional interest.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative. As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. The BTC options market is now flashing persistent call skew across all tenors.
Meanwhile, stress fractures are beginning to show in U.S. credit. According to Bloomberg, the cost of insuring high-grade credit against default climbed to a one-week high, highlighting investor unease. With the Trump-Fed standoff set to escalate, markets may need to brace for further volatility.
For now, gold and Bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety.
28.04.202509:43
QCP Asia Colour – 28 April 25
BTC: Safe Haven or Risk Asset?
Last week, we highlighted the importance of monitoring Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and equities. Initially, BTC rallied alongside gold as equities slumped, demonstrating that a strong equity market was not a prerequisite for BTC’s ascent. With BTC now comfortably breaching the $90k mark, the narrative of BTC as a hedge against political instability and uncertain monetary policy appears increasingly entrenched.
But is BTC truly “digital gold”? Not quite. Midweek, BTC pivoted, decoupling from gold and rallying alongside equities, largely in response to headlines surrounding "21 Capital." This flip-flopping between safe-haven and risk-asset behaviour suggests that traditional correlation frameworks are becoming less instructive. Instead, market participants are now focused on the durability of BTC’s “up only” trend.
Options markets appear to be embracing this optimism. Call skew remains elevated, with over 500x BTC-30MAY25-104k-C and 800x BTC-27JUN25-135k-C bought on Friday.
BTC’s rally seems fundamentally healthier compared to previous cycles. Rather than speculative leverage, this recovery is being driven by increased TradFi adoption. Perpetual funding rates have remained flat to slightly negative, while spot BTC ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of net inflows totalling $3.1 billion.
Nevertheless, the sustainability of BTC’s momentum faces several key tests this week. Critical macroeconomic data releases and corporate earnings could prove pivotal in determining whether BTC's "up only" trajectory holds.
Key Events to Watch:
Tue: JOLTS Job Openings
Wed: US Advance GDP, US Employment Cost, MSFT and META earnings
Thu: US Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg PMI, AAPL and AMZN earnings
Fri: NFP, Unemployment Rate
BTC: Safe Haven or Risk Asset?
Last week, we highlighted the importance of monitoring Bitcoin’s correlation with gold and equities. Initially, BTC rallied alongside gold as equities slumped, demonstrating that a strong equity market was not a prerequisite for BTC’s ascent. With BTC now comfortably breaching the $90k mark, the narrative of BTC as a hedge against political instability and uncertain monetary policy appears increasingly entrenched.
But is BTC truly “digital gold”? Not quite. Midweek, BTC pivoted, decoupling from gold and rallying alongside equities, largely in response to headlines surrounding "21 Capital." This flip-flopping between safe-haven and risk-asset behaviour suggests that traditional correlation frameworks are becoming less instructive. Instead, market participants are now focused on the durability of BTC’s “up only” trend.
Options markets appear to be embracing this optimism. Call skew remains elevated, with over 500x BTC-30MAY25-104k-C and 800x BTC-27JUN25-135k-C bought on Friday.
BTC’s rally seems fundamentally healthier compared to previous cycles. Rather than speculative leverage, this recovery is being driven by increased TradFi adoption. Perpetual funding rates have remained flat to slightly negative, while spot BTC ETFs have recorded six consecutive days of net inflows totalling $3.1 billion.
Nevertheless, the sustainability of BTC’s momentum faces several key tests this week. Critical macroeconomic data releases and corporate earnings could prove pivotal in determining whether BTC's "up only" trajectory holds.
Key Events to Watch:
Tue: JOLTS Job Openings
Wed: US Advance GDP, US Employment Cost, MSFT and META earnings
Thu: US Unemployment Claims, ISM Mfg PMI, AAPL and AMZN earnings
Fri: NFP, Unemployment Rate
07.05.202509:53
QCP Asia Colour – 7 May 2025
The Ripple Effect
Following the tremors in TWD, reverberations quickly spilled into regional FX markets, with no pair more affected than HKD/USD. The Hong Kong dollar surged toward the strong end of its trading band, brushing up against the 7.75 floor of its long-standing USD peg.
In a decisive move, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened, selling a combined HKD 73.3 billion across two operations to defend the peg. The impact was immediate: HIBOR rates tumbled sharply across the curve, prompting hedge funds to unwind heavily crowded USD/HKD carry trades. The 1-month rate alone collapsed by nearly 60 basis points in a single session.
The dust has settled for now. But should the HKD strengthen further, markets could be forced to contend with another sharp leg lower in HIBOR, and a potentially more disorderly unwind.
Crypto Takes the Hint
The FX unwind also ignited speculation of easing US-China trade tensions, with whispers of discreet negotiations taking place in Switzerland. That narrative fueled a risk-on rally through early Asia hours, and Bitcoin responded swiftly, climbing 3% to $97,000 and erasing its weekend losses.
But the rally wasn’t driven by FX alone. Another catalyst came from New Hampshire, where Governor Kelly Ayotte approved a landmark measure establishing the first US state-level Bitcoin reserve. “New Hampshire is once again First in the Nation!” she declared.
The legislation permits up to 5% of public funds to be allocated to cryptocurrency and precious metals. For now, Bitcoin is the only eligible digital asset, given the market cap threshold of $500 billion.
A small policy shift at the state level, but a giant step for crypto’s institutional future.
The Ripple Effect
Following the tremors in TWD, reverberations quickly spilled into regional FX markets, with no pair more affected than HKD/USD. The Hong Kong dollar surged toward the strong end of its trading band, brushing up against the 7.75 floor of its long-standing USD peg.
In a decisive move, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) intervened, selling a combined HKD 73.3 billion across two operations to defend the peg. The impact was immediate: HIBOR rates tumbled sharply across the curve, prompting hedge funds to unwind heavily crowded USD/HKD carry trades. The 1-month rate alone collapsed by nearly 60 basis points in a single session.
The dust has settled for now. But should the HKD strengthen further, markets could be forced to contend with another sharp leg lower in HIBOR, and a potentially more disorderly unwind.
Crypto Takes the Hint
The FX unwind also ignited speculation of easing US-China trade tensions, with whispers of discreet negotiations taking place in Switzerland. That narrative fueled a risk-on rally through early Asia hours, and Bitcoin responded swiftly, climbing 3% to $97,000 and erasing its weekend losses.
But the rally wasn’t driven by FX alone. Another catalyst came from New Hampshire, where Governor Kelly Ayotte approved a landmark measure establishing the first US state-level Bitcoin reserve. “New Hampshire is once again First in the Nation!” she declared.
The legislation permits up to 5% of public funds to be allocated to cryptocurrency and precious metals. For now, Bitcoin is the only eligible digital asset, given the market cap threshold of $500 billion.
A small policy shift at the state level, but a giant step for crypto’s institutional future.
14.05.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour – 14 May 2025
Markets rally on US–Saudi trade breakthrough
Markets staged a sharp rebound overnight, buoyed by an unexpectedly bullish turn in US trade diplomacy. Washington signed a landmark $600 billion trade pact with Saudi Arabia, prompting a rollback in tariffs and sparking a fresh wave of risk-on sentiment. With this, the “Art of the Deal” era appears alive and well.
Equities climbed another leg higher. The S&P 500 has erased last month’s 17% drawdown and is now flat on the year, defying bearish expectations and underscoring the market's renewed appetite for risk.
US CPI softens, but Fed holds steady
US CPI came in below expectations, providing a welcome reprieve to inflation worries and bolstering bets on rate cuts. Still, the Fed remains cautious. At its last meeting, officials reiterated a data-dependent stance, flagging the uncertain downstream effects of tariffs on both unemployment and inflation.
The first cut is currently priced in for July, but in our view, September is more realistic given the Fed’s desire for further clarity. Market pricing has also adjusted accordingly, with two rate cuts now expected for 2025, down from four just a month prior.
Crypto leads the rebound
Crypto has outpaced equities on the rebound, with BTC edging close to all-time highs. Meanwhile, ETH plays catch up, with the ETHBTC cross now at 0.025.
Looking ahead, we believe there is further room for digital assets to rally, especially as Coinbase’s inclusion into the S&P 500 on 19 May draws closer. History tells us that index inclusion tends to act as a short-term catalyst, as passive managers adjust their allocations to track the benchmark more closely.
Markets rally on US–Saudi trade breakthrough
Markets staged a sharp rebound overnight, buoyed by an unexpectedly bullish turn in US trade diplomacy. Washington signed a landmark $600 billion trade pact with Saudi Arabia, prompting a rollback in tariffs and sparking a fresh wave of risk-on sentiment. With this, the “Art of the Deal” era appears alive and well.
Equities climbed another leg higher. The S&P 500 has erased last month’s 17% drawdown and is now flat on the year, defying bearish expectations and underscoring the market's renewed appetite for risk.
US CPI softens, but Fed holds steady
US CPI came in below expectations, providing a welcome reprieve to inflation worries and bolstering bets on rate cuts. Still, the Fed remains cautious. At its last meeting, officials reiterated a data-dependent stance, flagging the uncertain downstream effects of tariffs on both unemployment and inflation.
The first cut is currently priced in for July, but in our view, September is more realistic given the Fed’s desire for further clarity. Market pricing has also adjusted accordingly, with two rate cuts now expected for 2025, down from four just a month prior.
Crypto leads the rebound
Crypto has outpaced equities on the rebound, with BTC edging close to all-time highs. Meanwhile, ETH plays catch up, with the ETHBTC cross now at 0.025.
Looking ahead, we believe there is further room for digital assets to rally, especially as Coinbase’s inclusion into the S&P 500 on 19 May draws closer. History tells us that index inclusion tends to act as a short-term catalyst, as passive managers adjust their allocations to track the benchmark more closely.
登录以解锁更多功能。
