🇳🇿- The New Zealand Economy is in a strange state. A range of data from a number of institutions paints a bleak picture of the economy. Do the statistics match the reality?
Officially, Unemployment is hovering at a 4 year high of 5.1%, with 32,000 workers exiting the workforce as of the final quarter of 2024. Labour Participation is sitting at 71% in December, down from a record high of 72.3% in 2023. By most measures of official data, the economy is swimming along hummingly.
Yet, something is not matching the baseline data. Heartland Group Holdings, the holding company for Heartland Bank, has reported a drop of net profit to 3.6m, with impairment of roughly 50 million in debt for the 1st Half of 2025, up from 24M in 1st Half of 2024.
At the same time, Company Liquidations are at a 10 year high as of October 2024, up 25% year on year.
Anecdotally, Spinoff is reporting roles are receiving thousands of applications per available role; with the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment's Jobs Online: December Quarter 2024 data reporting online job advertisements fell 27.2% over the year to December 2024, at the lowest level since the flash recession during the early stages of the COVID pandemic or since 2014.
Although these are anecdotal data points, the prolonged recession which the New Zealand Economy is in points to a frozen job market, excessive debt burdens being paid down or defaulted on. Are we becoming like China, where official economic statistics are broadly regarded as nonsense by financial analysts?
