Over the years, I have repeatedly pointed out that using statistical tools designed for comparing nations over periods of stability (cross-sectional comparatives) is misleading when applied to single-system retrospectives aimed at detecting inflection, risk, and signal amidst event noise (systems analysis).
Metrics like crude rates, age-adjusted rates, per-100K measures, and whole-domain linear tolerance growth models are meant for sketch-comparing separate entities across a normal circumstance—not for identifying signal, risk, and inflection within a single-system retrospective during a black swan event.
Ignore statisticians who don't realize this; they’ve never done it for real (when their home, business, or life was on the line).
This is why statisticians, economists, and accountants often fail when tasked with operating a power plant control system, trading market, or growing corporation. They don’t truly understand what’s happening and rely on relative benchmarks and metrics as a substitute for real competence and insight.
Over the decades, I’ve been called into over 200 complex scenarios—often when statisticians and accountants were baffled—providing clarity to investment firms, nations, and CEOs seeking to understand the true situation before an acquisition or strategic decision. And I’ve done this when the stakes were high.
The harsh reality is that humanity suffers under a plague of sophomoric incompetence parading as authority.
No respect.
@EthicalSkeptic
