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Україна Online: Новини | Політика
Телеграмна служба новин - Україна
Резидент
Мир сегодня с "Юрий Подоляка"
Труха⚡️Україна
Николаевский Ванёк
Лачен пише
Реальний Київ | Украина
Реальна Війна
Україна Online: Новини | Політика
Телеграмна служба новин - Україна
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QCP Broadcast
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Дата створення каналуЛист 25, 2019
Додано до TGlist
Вер 10, 2024Рекорди
22.04.202523:59
14.6KПідписників05.04.202523:59
500Індекс цитування15.01.202523:59
3.2KОхоплення 1 допису10.10.202423:59
1.1KОхоп рекл. допису12.04.202523:59
3.93%ER15.01.202523:59
22.67%ERR21.04.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour - 21 April 25
Bitcoin staged an Easter resurrection of its own, surging past $87k during early Asia hours in a sharp reversal that clawed back much of the selloff sparked by former President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April. While crypto markets are no strangers to illiquid, long-weekend rallies, this move stood in stark contrast to December’s muted Santa Rally. This time, BTC delivered.
But Bitcoin wasn’t alone. Gold also spiked to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by renewed trade war tensions and a weakening US dollar. With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation.
Indeed, we’re already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF flows turned positive last week with net inflows of $13.4 million, a stark contrast to the previous week’s $708 million in outflows. In options markets, positioning has turned more balanced. Risk reversals across tenors have flattened out, diverging from the persistent near-dated put skew that has dominated for weeks.
So was today’s tandem rally in BTC and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards BTC as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between BTC, gold and equities is one to watch closely.
For now, we’re keeping our eyes on the key $88.8k resistance level. Until that breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing any firm conclusions.
Bitcoin staged an Easter resurrection of its own, surging past $87k during early Asia hours in a sharp reversal that clawed back much of the selloff sparked by former President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April. While crypto markets are no strangers to illiquid, long-weekend rallies, this move stood in stark contrast to December’s muted Santa Rally. This time, BTC delivered.
But Bitcoin wasn’t alone. Gold also spiked to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by renewed trade war tensions and a weakening US dollar. With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation.
Indeed, we’re already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF flows turned positive last week with net inflows of $13.4 million, a stark contrast to the previous week’s $708 million in outflows. In options markets, positioning has turned more balanced. Risk reversals across tenors have flattened out, diverging from the persistent near-dated put skew that has dominated for weeks.
So was today’s tandem rally in BTC and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards BTC as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between BTC, gold and equities is one to watch closely.
For now, we’re keeping our eyes on the key $88.8k resistance level. Until that breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing any firm conclusions.
01.04.202510:05
QCP Asia Colour - 1 April 25
It's no April Fool's joke. BTC, ETH and the S&P500 have all just logged their worst quarterly performance in three years. Over $160b in crypto market cap was erased since Friday, underlying a sobering start to Q2 and a market still searching for its bullish momentum.
Friday's sharp pullback was driven by large quarter-end expiry where dealers were selling aggressively into the fix, causing perp funding to flip from flat to negative. This deleveraging in crypto came just as macro data delivered another blow: Core inflation data printed higher than expected, confirming firmer inflation in February, even as consumer spending remained muted.
Markets now turn nervously to the next potential catalyst. Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" is scheduled for 2 Apr, where he has promised to unveil a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs.
With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse. There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling. That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief reprieve.
Volatility metrics are painting a mixed picture with the VIX remaining elevated at 22, reflecting continued unease in equities. In contrast, crypto vols have defied the selloff, drifting lower despite a similar drawdown and Friday's mega washout. On our desk, activity was skewed bullish into Asia open. Buyers were seen taking topside exposure ($85k-$90k strikes) and selling downside risk ($75k strikes), a potential bet on a firmer start to Q2.
April has historically been a seasonally strong month for crypto, though we remain cautious. The path forward will likely be defined by a sideways chop as markets digest a slew of macro risks and await clearer direction.
Besides Trump's tariff announcement tomorrow, other key macro events that could drive further volatility:
- 1 Apr (Tue): ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLT Job Openings
- 3 Apr (Thu): ISM Services PMI
- 4 Apr (Fri): NFP, Unemployment Rate, Fed Powell Speech
It's no April Fool's joke. BTC, ETH and the S&P500 have all just logged their worst quarterly performance in three years. Over $160b in crypto market cap was erased since Friday, underlying a sobering start to Q2 and a market still searching for its bullish momentum.
Friday's sharp pullback was driven by large quarter-end expiry where dealers were selling aggressively into the fix, causing perp funding to flip from flat to negative. This deleveraging in crypto came just as macro data delivered another blow: Core inflation data printed higher than expected, confirming firmer inflation in February, even as consumer spending remained muted.
Markets now turn nervously to the next potential catalyst. Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" is scheduled for 2 Apr, where he has promised to unveil a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs.
With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse. There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling. That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief reprieve.
Volatility metrics are painting a mixed picture with the VIX remaining elevated at 22, reflecting continued unease in equities. In contrast, crypto vols have defied the selloff, drifting lower despite a similar drawdown and Friday's mega washout. On our desk, activity was skewed bullish into Asia open. Buyers were seen taking topside exposure ($85k-$90k strikes) and selling downside risk ($75k strikes), a potential bet on a firmer start to Q2.
April has historically been a seasonally strong month for crypto, though we remain cautious. The path forward will likely be defined by a sideways chop as markets digest a slew of macro risks and await clearer direction.
Besides Trump's tariff announcement tomorrow, other key macro events that could drive further volatility:
- 1 Apr (Tue): ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLT Job Openings
- 3 Apr (Thu): ISM Services PMI
- 4 Apr (Fri): NFP, Unemployment Rate, Fed Powell Speech
14.04.202509:46
QCP Asia Colour - 14 April 25
Going All-In
After a week marked by tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilise, shrugging off what would otherwise be crippling trade barriers between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. now imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, the escalation reached a point where marginal increases no longer surprise markets. The sheer magnitude of these levies has rendered them symbolic rather than market-moving, a notable departure from the panic triggered during the initial "Liberation Day" shocks.
The Art of Repeal: Olive Branch or Retreat?
Despite both sides maintaining a hawkish public posture, cracks are beginning to show. After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest round of tariffs. This morning, Chinese officials called on the U.S. to 'completely cancel' their reciprocal tariffs.
So who blinks first? Washington is angling for leverage, while Beijing seeks room to breathe. Yet neither can afford to project weakness. Despite this deadlock, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the U.S. appears to be negotiating not just with China, but with bond markets and itself.
What about BTC?
In crypto markets, BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favour of puts until June, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term. That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a "wait and see" approach to the tariff situation.
Going All-In
After a week marked by tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilise, shrugging off what would otherwise be crippling trade barriers between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. now imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, the escalation reached a point where marginal increases no longer surprise markets. The sheer magnitude of these levies has rendered them symbolic rather than market-moving, a notable departure from the panic triggered during the initial "Liberation Day" shocks.
The Art of Repeal: Olive Branch or Retreat?
Despite both sides maintaining a hawkish public posture, cracks are beginning to show. After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest round of tariffs. This morning, Chinese officials called on the U.S. to 'completely cancel' their reciprocal tariffs.
So who blinks first? Washington is angling for leverage, while Beijing seeks room to breathe. Yet neither can afford to project weakness. Despite this deadlock, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the U.S. appears to be negotiating not just with China, but with bond markets and itself.
What about BTC?
In crypto markets, BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favour of puts until June, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term. That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a "wait and see" approach to the tariff situation.
02.04.202509:45
QCP Asia Colour - 2 April 25
It's Liberation Day in the U.S. and Trump is expected to unleash a volley of tariffs later tonight at the Rose Garden. While there was some semblance of clarity yesterday, visibility remains low. To borrow from the president's own playbook, last-minute brinksmanship was never a key chapter in "The Art of the Deal".
The latest wave of tariffs appear to target a broad swatch of countries, including Japan, China, Canada, and the EU. The U.S. seems increasingly intent on isolating itself in pursuit of more favourable trading terms, but early indications suggest that key counterparts aren't inclined to concede. In fact, the opposite may be happening. Rather than fracturing under pressure, global players appear to be closing ranks. Just yesterday, officials from China, Japan and Korea convened to explore deeper regional trade cooperation.
Market implications? In the short term, we expect all risk assets to remain under pressure. But as the new status quo beds in, we could witness pockets of ex-U.S. exceptionalism. Global equity indices may continue to push toward new highs, even as the U.S. risks being sidelined by its own policy choices.
Turning to the Fed, markets continue to price 2.5 cuts in 2025. The Fed finds itself in a tight corner with consumer confidence and soft data coming in weak which may portend weaker GDP in Q2. At the same time, tariff-induced inflationary pressures could start building after April 2. In a classic stagflationary environment, the Fed is more likely to hike than cut. In the current environment, the Fed appears inclined to adopt a wait and see approach.
In crypto, sentiment remains broadly subdued. BTC continues to trade without conviction, while ETH is holding the line at $1,800 support. Across the board, crypto markets are showing signs of exhaustion with numerous coins down 90% YTD, with some shedding over 30% in the past week. Without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst, we don't expect a meaningful reversal. While light positioning could support a grind higher, we're not chasing any upside moves until the broader macro picture improves.
It's Liberation Day in the U.S. and Trump is expected to unleash a volley of tariffs later tonight at the Rose Garden. While there was some semblance of clarity yesterday, visibility remains low. To borrow from the president's own playbook, last-minute brinksmanship was never a key chapter in "The Art of the Deal".
The latest wave of tariffs appear to target a broad swatch of countries, including Japan, China, Canada, and the EU. The U.S. seems increasingly intent on isolating itself in pursuit of more favourable trading terms, but early indications suggest that key counterparts aren't inclined to concede. In fact, the opposite may be happening. Rather than fracturing under pressure, global players appear to be closing ranks. Just yesterday, officials from China, Japan and Korea convened to explore deeper regional trade cooperation.
Market implications? In the short term, we expect all risk assets to remain under pressure. But as the new status quo beds in, we could witness pockets of ex-U.S. exceptionalism. Global equity indices may continue to push toward new highs, even as the U.S. risks being sidelined by its own policy choices.
Turning to the Fed, markets continue to price 2.5 cuts in 2025. The Fed finds itself in a tight corner with consumer confidence and soft data coming in weak which may portend weaker GDP in Q2. At the same time, tariff-induced inflationary pressures could start building after April 2. In a classic stagflationary environment, the Fed is more likely to hike than cut. In the current environment, the Fed appears inclined to adopt a wait and see approach.
In crypto, sentiment remains broadly subdued. BTC continues to trade without conviction, while ETH is holding the line at $1,800 support. Across the board, crypto markets are showing signs of exhaustion with numerous coins down 90% YTD, with some shedding over 30% in the past week. Without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst, we don't expect a meaningful reversal. While light positioning could support a grind higher, we're not chasing any upside moves until the broader macro picture improves.
16.04.202509:41
QCP Asia Colour - 16 April 25
The Art of the Deal
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory".
Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market's preferred store of value.
Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.
But where's Bitcoin in all this?
Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The "alternative store of value" narrative isn't gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.
The Art of the Deal
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory".
Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market's preferred store of value.
Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.
But where's Bitcoin in all this?
Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The "alternative store of value" narrative isn't gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.
04.04.202502:05
QCP Asia Colour - 4 April 25
Liberation Day or Liquidation Day?
In the latest chapter of Make America Wealthy Again, President Trump reignited global trade tensions with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs. On Wednesday, he unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., alongside a "reciprocal tariff" targeted at countries with a high trade deficit with the U.S.
Markets wasted no time reacting. BTC sold off sharply, tumbling from a session high of $88.5K to a low of $81.2K, a drawdown that erased earlier gains and triggered broad-based liquidations across the crypto complex. More than $221 million in long positions were liquidated, with BTC taking a heavier hit relative to ETH.
As expected, the broader risk complex sold off in sympathy. U.S. equities futures bore the brunt of the impact, with S&P 500 futures down 3.38% and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 4.28%. The rout extended through yesterday’s US session, with consumer-facing names like American Eagle plunging 17.47% — a reflection of investor anxiety over exposure to Asia-based supply chains.
With the key macro risk event now behind us, attention turns to tonight’s non-farm payroll report. Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market. A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025—0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December.
On the options front, the desk continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection. This skew underscores the prevailing mood: uncertain and cautious.
That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce.
Liberation Day or Liquidation Day?
In the latest chapter of Make America Wealthy Again, President Trump reignited global trade tensions with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs. On Wednesday, he unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., alongside a "reciprocal tariff" targeted at countries with a high trade deficit with the U.S.
Markets wasted no time reacting. BTC sold off sharply, tumbling from a session high of $88.5K to a low of $81.2K, a drawdown that erased earlier gains and triggered broad-based liquidations across the crypto complex. More than $221 million in long positions were liquidated, with BTC taking a heavier hit relative to ETH.
As expected, the broader risk complex sold off in sympathy. U.S. equities futures bore the brunt of the impact, with S&P 500 futures down 3.38% and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 4.28%. The rout extended through yesterday’s US session, with consumer-facing names like American Eagle plunging 17.47% — a reflection of investor anxiety over exposure to Asia-based supply chains.
With the key macro risk event now behind us, attention turns to tonight’s non-farm payroll report. Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market. A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025—0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December.
On the options front, the desk continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection. This skew underscores the prevailing mood: uncertain and cautious.
That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce.
10.04.202509:34
QCP Asia Colour - 10 April 25
Make America Wealthy Again
If “Make America Wealthy Again” were a stage production, last night marked its dramatic crescendo. President Trump authorised a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, while introducing a blanket 10% reciprocal tariff on all countries except China. Markets responded with fervour: the S&P 500 rallied 9.51% and Nasdaq spiked 12.02%. Bitcoin did not let the market down as it advanced 8.43% while Ethereum added an impressive 13.38%. The crypto market saw $75 million in shorts liquidated within 60 minutes of the announcement.
Respect is Earned, Not Given
In contrast to his broader olive branch, President Trump doubled down on China, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of "respect for world markets". The Chinese Yuan responded accordingly, tumbling to an 18-year low at 7.3498 this morning. Yuan devaluation serves as a partial cushion, preserving export competitiveness in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch. Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution. Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions. That said, the purchase of December $100K calls points to longer-term optimism for BTC to revisit the $100K milestone later towards the end of this year.
All eyes now turn to tonight’s CPI data, which is poised to refocus attention the domestic economy. A weaker print would be welcome, helping to offset the inflationary overhang introduced by the blanket tariff policy.
Make America Wealthy Again
If “Make America Wealthy Again” were a stage production, last night marked its dramatic crescendo. President Trump authorised a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, while introducing a blanket 10% reciprocal tariff on all countries except China. Markets responded with fervour: the S&P 500 rallied 9.51% and Nasdaq spiked 12.02%. Bitcoin did not let the market down as it advanced 8.43% while Ethereum added an impressive 13.38%. The crypto market saw $75 million in shorts liquidated within 60 minutes of the announcement.
Respect is Earned, Not Given
In contrast to his broader olive branch, President Trump doubled down on China, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of "respect for world markets". The Chinese Yuan responded accordingly, tumbling to an 18-year low at 7.3498 this morning. Yuan devaluation serves as a partial cushion, preserving export competitiveness in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch. Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution. Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions. That said, the purchase of December $100K calls points to longer-term optimism for BTC to revisit the $100K milestone later towards the end of this year.
All eyes now turn to tonight’s CPI data, which is poised to refocus attention the domestic economy. A weaker print would be welcome, helping to offset the inflationary overhang introduced by the blanket tariff policy.
22.04.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour - 22 April 25
Not everything that glitters is gold - some of it runs on blockchain.
Gold extended its scorching rally overnight, breaking decisively above $3,500 an ounce. The move underscores a broader flight from U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar, as concerns around Federal Reserve independence escalate. Market jitters have intensified amid Trump’s sustained calls for rate cuts, alongside speculation that he may be exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Digital or not, gold is winning. Bitcoin punched to its highest levels since early April, buoyed by strong spot demand during U.S. trading hours. Spot volumes eclipsed perpetuals, with the largest Coinbase premium in months and $381.3 million in BTC spot ETF inflows, both signaling resurgent institutional interest.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative. As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. The BTC options market is now flashing persistent call skew across all tenors.
Meanwhile, stress fractures are beginning to show in U.S. credit. According to Bloomberg, the cost of insuring high-grade credit against default climbed to a one-week high, highlighting investor unease. With the Trump-Fed standoff set to escalate, markets may need to brace for further volatility.
For now, gold and Bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety.
Not everything that glitters is gold - some of it runs on blockchain.
Gold extended its scorching rally overnight, breaking decisively above $3,500 an ounce. The move underscores a broader flight from U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar, as concerns around Federal Reserve independence escalate. Market jitters have intensified amid Trump’s sustained calls for rate cuts, alongside speculation that he may be exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Digital or not, gold is winning. Bitcoin punched to its highest levels since early April, buoyed by strong spot demand during U.S. trading hours. Spot volumes eclipsed perpetuals, with the largest Coinbase premium in months and $381.3 million in BTC spot ETF inflows, both signaling resurgent institutional interest.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative. As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. The BTC options market is now flashing persistent call skew across all tenors.
Meanwhile, stress fractures are beginning to show in U.S. credit. According to Bloomberg, the cost of insuring high-grade credit against default climbed to a one-week high, highlighting investor unease. With the Trump-Fed standoff set to escalate, markets may need to brace for further volatility.
For now, gold and Bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety.
09.04.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour - 9 April 25
Markets extended their declines overnight after the U.S. imposed a fresh wave of tariffs on China, bringing the total levy on Chinese imports to a staggering 104%.
Volatility remains elevated, with the VIX holding above 40 for the third straight session. Even traditional safe havens are failing to function as intended. Risk off assets are failing to provide a suitable hedge, with Gold and U.S. bonds selling off as investors rush to de-risk and meet margin calls.
The Trump administration's strategy to refinance U.S. debt at lower levels is showing signs of strain, as yields surged across the curve. 10Y USTs peaked at 4.50%, while 30Y yields briefly breached 5%. Credit spreads continue to widen, reflecting a broader deterioration in risk sentiment.
Rather than pivoting, President Trump appears to be employing a martingale strategy, doubling down on each retaliatory move. With China holding most of the leverage, the question becomes: how many more chips can the U.S. afford to throw into the pot?
Markets are now posed between two hopes, either a Trump put or Fed put, to provide a floor. Neither looks immediately forthcoming. With unemployment holding steady and inflation showing signs of resurgence, the Fed is likely to maintain current rates for the foreseeable future. This stands in contrast to market pricing, which reflects expectations of four cuts in 2025, including speculation about a potential inter-meeting cut.
BTC is consolidating around the $75k level, though this could unravel if equities face another sharp leg lower. ETH continues to underperform, drifting toward the $1,400, levels last seen in early 2023. Amid heightened volatility, crypto yield strategies are coming back into focus. Elevated implied vols offer a compelling window to earn carry through structured trades.
Markets extended their declines overnight after the U.S. imposed a fresh wave of tariffs on China, bringing the total levy on Chinese imports to a staggering 104%.
Volatility remains elevated, with the VIX holding above 40 for the third straight session. Even traditional safe havens are failing to function as intended. Risk off assets are failing to provide a suitable hedge, with Gold and U.S. bonds selling off as investors rush to de-risk and meet margin calls.
The Trump administration's strategy to refinance U.S. debt at lower levels is showing signs of strain, as yields surged across the curve. 10Y USTs peaked at 4.50%, while 30Y yields briefly breached 5%. Credit spreads continue to widen, reflecting a broader deterioration in risk sentiment.
Rather than pivoting, President Trump appears to be employing a martingale strategy, doubling down on each retaliatory move. With China holding most of the leverage, the question becomes: how many more chips can the U.S. afford to throw into the pot?
Markets are now posed between two hopes, either a Trump put or Fed put, to provide a floor. Neither looks immediately forthcoming. With unemployment holding steady and inflation showing signs of resurgence, the Fed is likely to maintain current rates for the foreseeable future. This stands in contrast to market pricing, which reflects expectations of four cuts in 2025, including speculation about a potential inter-meeting cut.
BTC is consolidating around the $75k level, though this could unravel if equities face another sharp leg lower. ETH continues to underperform, drifting toward the $1,400, levels last seen in early 2023. Amid heightened volatility, crypto yield strategies are coming back into focus. Elevated implied vols offer a compelling window to earn carry through structured trades.
07.04.202510:14
QCP Asia Colour - 7 April 25
Markets are reeling as the global trade war intensifies. While U.S. equities were already under heavy pressure last week, BTC largely weathered the storm over the weekend. However, that resilience proved short-lived. Crypto plunged during early Asia hours with BTC breaking below $80k and freefalling to a low of $74.5k. Over $800m in liquidations across BTC and ETH have occurred in the past 24 hours alone.
As markets continue to plunge into correction territory, BTC and ETH Friday implied vols spiked above 85v and 130v respectively as the market rushed to cover their downside exposure. The VIX surged above 60, signalling extreme panic and fear across risk assets. China's stock market wasn't spared either as it suffers the worst single-day crash since 2008, likely a delayed reaction from Friday's retaliation where China imposed sweeping 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods.
With just two days to go until the 9 April implementation of higher customs tariffs, the global economy teeters on the edge of a full-scale economic war. Remarkably, Trump's "all-in" appears to be drawing engagement, with reports suggesting over 50 countries reaching out to initiate trade negotiations.
Yet as the world scrambles to secure a seat at the table, markets are likely to remain on edge. The president, showing no signs of backing down, remarked that he doesn't want stocks to fall, "‘but sometimes you have to take medicine." With confidence and the credibility of the U.S. economy hanging in the balance, the coming days could prove too bitter a pill for global markets, and for Trump himself, if meaningful progress isn't made before Wednesday.
Markets are reeling as the global trade war intensifies. While U.S. equities were already under heavy pressure last week, BTC largely weathered the storm over the weekend. However, that resilience proved short-lived. Crypto plunged during early Asia hours with BTC breaking below $80k and freefalling to a low of $74.5k. Over $800m in liquidations across BTC and ETH have occurred in the past 24 hours alone.
As markets continue to plunge into correction territory, BTC and ETH Friday implied vols spiked above 85v and 130v respectively as the market rushed to cover their downside exposure. The VIX surged above 60, signalling extreme panic and fear across risk assets. China's stock market wasn't spared either as it suffers the worst single-day crash since 2008, likely a delayed reaction from Friday's retaliation where China imposed sweeping 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods.
With just two days to go until the 9 April implementation of higher customs tariffs, the global economy teeters on the edge of a full-scale economic war. Remarkably, Trump's "all-in" appears to be drawing engagement, with reports suggesting over 50 countries reaching out to initiate trade negotiations.
Yet as the world scrambles to secure a seat at the table, markets are likely to remain on edge. The president, showing no signs of backing down, remarked that he doesn't want stocks to fall, "‘but sometimes you have to take medicine." With confidence and the credibility of the U.S. economy hanging in the balance, the coming days could prove too bitter a pill for global markets, and for Trump himself, if meaningful progress isn't made before Wednesday.
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