Crypto Narratives
08.04.202510:22
$ETH is not only weak vs BTC, but it's even been weak vs altcoins for months now
26.03.202510:40
The market is currently in no-man's land for me
No real altcoin appetite into clear narratives
We are still completely relying on tradfi which is hard to predict
BTC is looking good, Saylor is bidding and mNAV is holding, GME plans to buy too, and I am a bull on BTC by default. But we're now up 15% on the recent lows, and pumping dead small cap memes.
So this is not a place where I want to add risk, but in the same time, absolutely no reason to get overly bearish here.
My positioning is mostly : long BTC (largest pos by far) + long specific alts + short a huge basket of alts + short the alts that overshoot to the upside on a shorter timeframe
No real altcoin appetite into clear narratives
We are still completely relying on tradfi which is hard to predict
BTC is looking good, Saylor is bidding and mNAV is holding, GME plans to buy too, and I am a bull on BTC by default. But we're now up 15% on the recent lows, and pumping dead small cap memes.
So this is not a place where I want to add risk, but in the same time, absolutely no reason to get overly bearish here.
My positioning is mostly : long BTC (largest pos by far) + long specific alts + short a huge basket of alts + short the alts that overshoot to the upside on a shorter timeframe
24.03.202519:06
Saylor does have a money glitch to buy $BTC as long as the $MSTR premium remains elevated
Based on his previous BTC purchases, he wants to use the ATM (ie selling newly issued MSTR shares) when the premium is above 1.8
He stopped using it completely after early February but started doing it again last week.
And he's most likely going to get $700M tomorrow with the $STRF issuance on top of the $500M he deployed last week
Check regularly the MSTR premium (or MSTR/BTC ratio), and as long as it remains around current levels or above... well it means that he still has a lot of optionalities and 'dry powder' to purchase more BTC
Overall : that's bullish $BTC
Based on his previous BTC purchases, he wants to use the ATM (ie selling newly issued MSTR shares) when the premium is above 1.8
He stopped using it completely after early February but started doing it again last week.
And he's most likely going to get $700M tomorrow with the $STRF issuance on top of the $500M he deployed last week
Check regularly the MSTR premium (or MSTR/BTC ratio), and as long as it remains around current levels or above... well it means that he still has a lot of optionalities and 'dry powder' to purchase more BTC
Overall : that's bullish $BTC
24.03.202512:03
AggrNews: MICROSTRATEGY PURCHASES 6,911 BITCOINS BETWEEN MAR 17 - MAR 23 AT AN AVERAGE OF $84,529 (TOTAL: $584.10M)
22.03.202515:13
We’re in a PvP market where shorts can easily be squeezed / punished (see AUCTION and JELLYJELLY), be careful out there, lads
19.03.202511:17
ETHBTC squeezing
Surely this is going to end well 🙂
Surely this is going to end well 🙂
06.04.202512:02
Despite the overall depressing price action, there were a few good trades to take in March, mostly news-driven :
- Max long $ADA $XRP $SOL on the Sunday crypto reserve tweet. Incredible trade that you could size up if you were early enough
- Long FARTCOIN around $200M-$250M mcap : huge discrepancy between small mcap and high mindshare + volume. 2x-3x trade in two weeks.
- Short $HYPE / long JELLYJELLY on the HLP exploit news.
- Long $TON on the Pavel Durov release news, and remain long for two weeks after that
- Long $BERA into the PoL launch + close or short on the 3rd tap of its deadly $9 resistance
- Long $MOVE on the news that they will 'reinject' (kek) $38M into the chart. +30% pump in a few hours.
- Short $HYPE from $20 at the beginning of the month with the thesis that all catalysts were behind, and that there was a huge amount of uPnL still hiding in a $20bn FDV coin in an extremely weak market.
- Short some of the huge short squeezes once they look exhausted : $MAVIA $AUCTION
- Short the Binance memecoins : MUBARAK above $150M mcap, $TUT above $50M mcap, BROCCOLI after each news pump
- Remain structurally short ETHBTC during the whole month
- Remain structurally short altcoins vs BTC during the whole month
- Remain structurally short the AI agent coins during the whole month
- Max long $ADA $XRP $SOL on the Sunday crypto reserve tweet. Incredible trade that you could size up if you were early enough
- Long FARTCOIN around $200M-$250M mcap : huge discrepancy between small mcap and high mindshare + volume. 2x-3x trade in two weeks.
- Short $HYPE / long JELLYJELLY on the HLP exploit news.
- Long $TON on the Pavel Durov release news, and remain long for two weeks after that
- Long $BERA into the PoL launch + close or short on the 3rd tap of its deadly $9 resistance
- Long $MOVE on the news that they will 'reinject' (kek) $38M into the chart. +30% pump in a few hours.
- Short $HYPE from $20 at the beginning of the month with the thesis that all catalysts were behind, and that there was a huge amount of uPnL still hiding in a $20bn FDV coin in an extremely weak market.
- Short some of the huge short squeezes once they look exhausted : $MAVIA $AUCTION
- Short the Binance memecoins : MUBARAK above $150M mcap, $TUT above $50M mcap, BROCCOLI after each news pump
- Remain structurally short ETHBTC during the whole month
- Remain structurally short altcoins vs BTC during the whole month
- Remain structurally short the AI agent coins during the whole month
26.03.202510:21
We're at the state of the market where we are "squeezing" MOODENG and CHILLGUY again
24.03.202514:31
If you are flipping from bearish to bullish rn, you are doing something wrong
Force yourself to have the mind of a range trader
Become increasingly bullish as we go down, and increasingly cautious as we go up
Force yourself to have the mind of a range trader
Become increasingly bullish as we go down, and increasingly cautious as we go up
24.03.202510:24
I think Saylor announces a very small BTC purchase again (sub $30M), because the STRF issuance and sale is supposed to settle tomorrow. (So I don’t think he already has the $700M in cash)
21.03.202509:58
TLDR on "Saylor's average price" :
19.03.202510:20
I turned it into an article here :
https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/full-recap-of-the-crypto-narratives-3d8
https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/p/full-recap-of-the-crypto-narratives-3d8
26.03.202515:29
I think they settled the trade without taking the losses
They lost almost $100M in TVL in HLP though
They lost almost $100M in TVL in HLP though
25.03.202520:12
Best thing they could do to save $GME, by far
They have $5bn in cash iirc ?
It will be interesting to learn more about the exact playbook they plan to follow
They have $5bn in cash iirc ?
It will be interesting to learn more about the exact playbook they plan to follow
24.03.202512:20
The good news is that Saylor is still going to have $700M more tomorrow with the STRF issuance
(He sold MSTR shares last week, I thought he wanted to stop doing that for some time)
(He sold MSTR shares last week, I thought he wanted to stop doing that for some time)
24.03.202509:17
HYPE <> FARTCOIN barbell showing interesting things now
20.03.202514:11
Each large sell-off in 2022 came from huge entities collapsing, which lead to forced deleveraging and selling.
The violence of the previous bear market was a mirror of the excesses of the bull run, and especially the excessive leverage in the whole market.
I think that we are very far from having had the same levels of leverage in the system in 2024, which is why the notion of a 'cycle top' and prolonged bear market does not really make sense to me.
The violence of the previous bear market was a mirror of the excesses of the bull run, and especially the excessive leverage in the whole market.
I think that we are very far from having had the same levels of leverage in the system in 2024, which is why the notion of a 'cycle top' and prolonged bear market does not really make sense to me.
18.03.202514:54
Full recap of the crypto narratives of 2024, month by month :
https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1902010341128544437
https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1902010341128544437
26.03.202513:39
HyperLiquid HLP is short $10M worth of JELLYJELLY, a coin with a $27M market cap
24.03.202520:31
It's easy to have conviction in $BTC, but it's hard to find altcoins to get conviction in
On a long timeframe, only some inverse alts are comfortable...
On a long timeframe, only some inverse alts are comfortable...
24.03.202512:03
Ow shit
23.03.202509:30
"PvP market" illustration...
$AUCTION
$AUCTION
20.03.202509:52
People are using the $TRUMP launch as a reference for "the top" but the altcoin market had actually topped as soon as early December
And this does not even take into account the fact that during the second half of November, the growth was mostly driven by old coins (dino, DeFi 1.0, metaverse) while the CT darlings (SOL, memecoins, DOGE) were struggling
Which means that the 'bull market feeling' lasted like 2 weeks for most people
Don't get me wrong, there were some huge opportunities in December such as AI agents and HyperLiquid ecosystem, but you really had to be a mercenary / rotator, while the holders have been completely punished
And this does not even take into account the fact that during the second half of November, the growth was mostly driven by old coins (dino, DeFi 1.0, metaverse) while the CT darlings (SOL, memecoins, DOGE) were struggling
Which means that the 'bull market feeling' lasted like 2 weeks for most people
Don't get me wrong, there were some huge opportunities in December such as AI agents and HyperLiquid ecosystem, but you really had to be a mercenary / rotator, while the holders have been completely punished
18.03.202512:49
7d best performers among large caps :
$CAKE : +76%
$TON : +35%
$ZRO : +39%
$ATOM : +29%
$KAS : +19%
When the strongest coins are so random, you have a good idea of the state of the market (dead)
Especially with the pvp short squeezes of low caps (MAVIA, JELLYJELLY, etc) on top of that
$CAKE : +76%
$TON : +35%
$ZRO : +39%
$ATOM : +29%
$KAS : +19%
When the strongest coins are so random, you have a good idea of the state of the market (dead)
Especially with the pvp short squeezes of low caps (MAVIA, JELLYJELLY, etc) on top of that
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