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Al-Ra'i—The Observer

Breaking down Global Geopolitics, and Power Shifts—straight to the point! 👁️‍🗨️📝
📍Currently admin, at @DEQNEWS.

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Останні публікації в групі "Al-Ra'i—The Observer"

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16.04.202521:09

🇱🇧⫽ 🎞 I keep returning to this footage—

Tyre, South Lebanon. Ṣūr (صور) 1914. The light catching the edges of stones that have seen empires rise and fall. The camera trembles slightly, as if hesitant to commit what it sees to history.

I wasn’t there. I don’t know the smell of the sea that day, or the conversations lost to the wind. But some silences are louder than others.

"The Levant could have been—no. That’s the wrong tense. The Levant was."

"It was a living thing before it was carved into segments, before Zionism rewrote not just borders but time itself."

What was taken wasn’t only land. It was the right to mundanity. To boredom. To a life where 'home' wasn’t a contested word.

I have no right to their grief—"Yet to look away is its own violence."

The past doesn’t whisper. It waits.
Not for vengeance—
for witness.

"🇱🇧 . 🇵🇸 . 🇮🇶. 🇸🇾 —different names, same fracture."

This isn’t nostalgia. It’s an unpaid debt.

15.04.202514:30

🇮🇷⫽📝 CASE STUDY—

A leader shouldn’t have to repeat himself. So when Khamenei stands there, calm, steady, and says “our red lines are clear”—I don’t hear instruction. I hear repair.

Not for Washington. This isn’t about them. It’s about the walls inside Tehran.

- In meetings that start five minutes late.
- In vague replies.
- In obedient nods followed by quiet revisions.

“Orders turn into suggestions, then into delays, and eventually into something unrecognizable.”

And he sees it. That’s what this is. A warning, yes—but not outwards. Inwards. “Don’t invest too much in talks,” he says.

- Not because diplomacy is weakness, but because bureaucracy is.
- Because institutions drift.
- Because even in a system built on ideology, self-preservation is the strongest instinct.

There’s a kind of wisdom here. A government—even one built top-down—is never really a command. “It’s a conversation pretending to be a monologue.”

When he says “self-reliance” but still engages, it’s not contradiction—it’s governance. It’s how control survives.

Lesson? Maybe this:
“Absolute power doesn’t exist. Not really. What looks like command from the outside is just containment from within.”

It’s not about ruling—it’s about keeping the center from dissolving.
And some days, that’s enough.

15.04.202506:08

🇾🇪⫽🇾🇪⫽🇦🇪⫽🇺🇸 I’m Troubled Tonight—

Word came through the Wall Street Journal: the UAE-backed Yemen’s “government” [PLC] is mulling a ground assault on the Houthis [AnsarAllah], banking on U.S. bombs having softened them.

The UAE’s keen to march into Houthi lands out west; Washington’s listening but hasn’t committed.

Saudi Arabia’s stepping back, stung too many times by Houthi reprisals to risk it again.

I keep turning over the past in my mind. The Saudis tried this game from 2015 to 2022—relentless airstrikes, blockades, all with U.S. and UAE backing. What did it gain? The AnsarAllah still hold Sana’a, their grip tight, following salvos towards Israel now 🤷🏻‍♀️

I think of Egypt in the ‘60s, bogged down in Yemen’s hills, outfought by tribes with little more than grit.

If the UAE pushes this, they’re misreading the board. The AnsarAllah know every ridge, every village; they don’t need fancy gear to bleed an invader dry.

I’ve seen it elsewhere—Hamas in Gaza.

You, reading this: study what makes a people stand unbowed. That’s where the real fight lies, not in some general’s plan.

14.04.202513:26

🇸🇩⫽🇮🇷⫽🇸🇦⫽🇦🇪 Interesting note—

Iran’s role in Sudan’s defense pivot—supplying drones and possibly missiles, with Yemeni engineers digging in 100 km north of Khartoum.

Geologically, Sudan’s loose, sedimentary plains aren’t ideal for deep bunkers; shallow, reinforced drone hangars make more sense given the high water table.

Strategically, Iran’s pushing asymmetric tools—drones fit Sudan’s local threats better than long-range missiles, which feel like overkill.

If Yemenis are involved, it’s a sign of Iran’s tech transfer, but Sudan’s fractured terrain, human and geological, caps how deep this goes.

All that to ensure, this costs the Saudis and Emiratis more than they’re willing to afford.

14.04.202508:07

🇮🇷⫽🇺🇸⫽🇴🇲 FOLLOWING UP—

The negotiations between Washington and Tehran unfold like a familiar parable—a tale of power, distrust, and the fragility of promises.

Iran’s demands remain unyielding:

- Unfreezing of its seized billions.
- Loosening of oil export chains
- Swift relief from the nuclear program’s suffocating sanctions.

The Americans, in their urgency, have already acquiesced to a precarious short-term arrangement—devoid of rigorous oversight, stitched together with the thread of “good faith.”—reveals much about desperation.

The talks, mediated in Oman, saw no direct engagement despite Trump’s insistence. Iran shut down Witkoff’s request to visit Tehran.
Trust is a currency neither side has.

However, the venue shift to Rome amused me—a decision driven by American discomfort with Oman’s proximity to Iran and the inconvenience of long flights.
Petty concerns that expose a lack of respect for the process.
“Dialogue may intensify soon, possibly leading to direct talks, but the U.S. track record of broken promises looms large.”

What’s clear: The U.S. is rushing.
Concessions flow one way so far.
Iran, though, plays the long game.
They know Washington’s deals often crumble—the JCPOA ghosts linger.

I can’t help but wonder:
Are we watching genuine diplomacy or just a staged detour before escalation?
“Rushed accords bear weak roots.”

When a nation as transient in its commitments as the United States offers swift solutions, skepticism is not cynicism—it is prudence.
Tehran’s restraint, honed by decades of siege, may yet prove wiser than Washington’s hunger for spectacle.
Time, as ever, will judge which side heeds history’s quiet warnings.

12.04.202514:12

🇺🇸\🇮🇷 Muscat, Oman—Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran have begun in Oman, mediated by Omani officials.

The discussions center only on Iran’s nuclear program, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has made clear.

Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has forbidden any talk of the country’s missile program or its ties to regional groups, viewing these as matters of sovereignty.

The U.S., according to sources, may consider concessions to reach an agreement, hoping to limit Iran’s nuclear activities.

Yet Iran remains guarded, remembering the U.S. abandonment of the 2015 nuclear deal, which led to harsh sanctions and pushed Iran to advance its uranium enrichment, now close to weapons-grade

Years of U.S. policies, including economic pressure and regional interventions, deepen Iran’s doubts about fair negotiations.

“We won’t allow negotiations on what we consider our red lines,” said a senior Iranian official, hinting at Iran’s firm stance on missile capabilities and regional alliances.

Iranian reports note a hint of progress in early exchanges, but Tehran demands sanctions relief and respect as equals, wary of repeating past disappointments.

Oman's hosting, but no real appetite for compromise. Iran won’t bend on missiles, US won’t lift sanctions. Just shadowboxing until someone blinks.

09.04.202519:57

🇮🇱⫽🇵🇸⫽🇪🇬 IF TRUE—

Egypt-linked tunnels give Hamas a strategic depth boost—logistics (weapons, C2 nodes) now sit beyond Israel’s strike radius. ROCKET SALVOS (10 at Askalan, Isdud) prove dispersed, tunnel-fed launch grids.
Egypt’s border opacity suggests gaps or complicity.

COUNTER?

- Map via seismic arrays + HUMINT.
- Collapse critical junctions (stress calc: ).
- Push Cairo for, subsurface lockdown.

"Uncut Egyptian access = Hamas endurance." Regional scope confirmed.

So, how's the land?

09.04.202514:44

🇮🇱⫽💸CASE STUDY—

How a “first-world” poster child turns into an emerging-market trainwreck before lunch..

— For years, Israel ran a "geopolitical carry trade": Borrow stability from the U.S., leverage tech hype, and pretend military spending doesn't have opportunity costs.

2025 REALITY CHECK? The VIG JUST GOT CALLED.

That $3.8B/year military aid? Now has tariff strings attached—"Pay-to-play, Bibi"

Tech Sector?—0.3% GROWTH (JPMORGAN 2024) when you need 8% to justify valuations.

Intel's $25B exit wasn't "business" — it was the first rat off the ship

5.3% GDP ON GUNS (SIPRI 2024) while deficit hits 8% (IMF Q3)

When your debt/GDP approaches Greece 2010 levels, you're not a "startup nation" - you're a basket case.

SHEKEL DOWN 10% SINCE 2023 isn't volatility — it's the market pricing in sovereign risk

— 60% FDI DROP means smart money already left

— BOND YIELDS AT 5.1%? One bad week from junk status

This isn't just about Israel - it's THE BLUEPRINT for what happens when:

- Over-reliance on a single patron meets geopolitical divorce
- Military spending cannibalizes productive capacity
- Elites externalize costs until the bill comes due

Markets tolerate illusions — until they don't. Israel's not special.

08.04.202511:10

🇺🇸⫽🇮🇷 Meanwhile: Trump’s April 7 claim of “direct talks” collapsed instantly—Iran corrected it to indirect. The lie wasn’t a slip; it was a test. Can we still gaslight the world? The answer: Not anymore.

His “great danger” threat? Same script as 2018—when ripping up the nuclear deal lit this fire. Recycling failed tactics isn’t strategy; it’s the arrogance of power refusing to learn.

—

U.S. credibility cracks when stories don’t stick

— Iran’s “resistance” alliances strain under sanctions and brinkmanship

— Civilians—not just leaders—absorb the fallout
Power thinks it can bluff its way out of accountability. But every lie weakens the house of cards. When delusion drives policy, collapse isn’t an “if”—it’s physics.

07.04.202515:58

🇮🇱⫽🇺🇸 April 7, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu arrived in Washington to meet President Donald Trump, fresh from a stop in Budapest on April 6.
The talks focus on trade and Iran, but they come as the International Criminal Court (ICC) pursues Netanyahu under a November 2024 arrest warrant for war crimes in Gaza.

Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, who hosted Netanyahu yesterday, rejects the ICC’s authority—a stance shared by the United States, which isn’t part of the court’s 124-member coalition.
Here’s something to know:
“The ICC, based in The Hague, investigates war crimes globally, but its reach depends on cooperation.”
The U.S. has a history with it—back in 2020, it imposed sanctions on ICC officials probing American actions in Afghanistan, a move reversed by Biden in 2021.
“Now, with Netanyahu’s visit, whispers of renewed U.S. pressure on the court will be surfacing.”

Israel, also not an ICC member, faces no legal obligation to comply, yet 124 countries could detain Netanyahu if he steps onto their soil—Yet.

The 🇺🇸 and 🇮🇱 critique the ICC’s legitimacy when it targets their interests, yet both have supported its rulings against adversaries.

06.04.202505:09

🇺🇸⫽👔 If President Trump’s calling this an economic “revolution,” he might want to check the S&P 500’s pulse—it’s down over 7% in three days. The ants in the USA are probably wondering where their crumbs went while he’s busy tweeting about winning!

05.04.202506:08

🇺🇸⫽🇾🇪 This image lays bare the truth: “it’s a tribal gathering, not an AnsarAllah meeting.”

The U.S., led by Trump’s clueless bravado, has once again butchered civilians—likely celebrating Eid al-Fitr—in a strike that exposes their utter incompetence.

Drone operators, reduced to cogs in a soulless machine, execute orders with zero cultural awareness or verified intelligence, driven only by political pressure to “produce” illusory victories—with no grasp of Yemeni culture or ground intel.

They’ve failed to stop AnsarAllah missile strikes—hundreds of strikes on shipping and Israel—Yet the U.S. persists, substituting bombs for strategy, slaughtering innocents while claiming progress.

Trump’s claim that this massacre “thwarted an attack” is absurd. The AnsarAllah—veterans in asymmetric warfare—would never strategize in exposed, open-air circles.

Such claims are deliberate lies and proof of staggering ignorance.

And where’s the proof U.S. ships were ever sunk? “The silence speaks volumes.” Is the Pentagon hiding failures too embarrassing to admit?

History repeats: from Vietnam’s My Lai to Iraq’s Fallujah, the U.S. weaponizes words like “collateral damage” to sanitize mass civilian slaughter.

Meanwhile, Israel’s 1967 assault on the USS Liberty—killing U.S. sailors—goes unmentioned, exposing selective outrage.

Trump and his trigger-happy operators are a disgrace. The global complicity is deafening. Arab regimes, the UN, Europe—all avert their eyes, normalizing atrocities as “counterterrorism.”

Trump’s drone warriors, detached from the humanity they obliterate, operate with the moral clarity of a video game: drop bombs, log off, repeat.

This isn’t security—it’s state-sanctioned terrorism, broadcast openly now, stripped of even the pretense of accountability.

04.04.202520:23

🇾🇪⫽🇺🇸 The U.S. has spent nearly $1 billion in under three weeks on strikes against Yemen’s AnsarAllah, yet the AnsarAllah remains capable of attacking ships in the Red Sea and downing U.S. drones.

Advanced munitions like Tomahaw and JASSM missiles have been deployed daily, but the AnsarAllaH underground stockpiles and leadership—largely mid-level figures—are largely intact.

While Pentagon officials claim reduced AnsarAllah ballistic missile attacks on Israel, critics argue the campaign is draining resources needed for potential conflicts with China.

04.04.202507:00

🇺🇸⫽👔Washington, April 4, 2025 – President Donald Trump has REMOVED at least six key National Security Council (NSC) figures, including senior directors:

Thomas Boodry, Brian Walsh, and David Feith, as well as NSA Director General Timothy Haugh and his deputy, Wendy Noble.

The firings, reported on April 3, came a day after Trump met with far-right activist Laura Loomer, who allegedly PROVIDED a dossier accusing NSC staff of disloyalty.

The purge extends: NSA, where Haugh, a 30-year veteran, and Noble, with nearly 40 years of experience, were replaced by Lt. Gen. William Hartmann and Sheila Thomas, both less seasoned.

No clear explanation has been offered, despite ongoing security breaches like the recent Signal app leak.

Trump dismissed the moves as— routine, but the timing and involvement of outside figures like Loomer and Elon Musk—who met with Haugh last month—suggest a decision-making process driven by PERSONAL AGENDAS rather than strategic needs.

03.04.202516:17

🇺🇸⫽🇮🇱⫽🇮🇷 Iran has activated its ninth Ghadir radar, a phased-array system with a confirmed range of 1,100 kilometers, as part of its early-warning network. This was reported on late March, 2025—bolstering its capability to detect stealth aircraft and ballistic missiles.

Additionally: Iran is finalizing a new over-the-horizon (OTH) radar system, identified as more advanced than the Ghadir. This system, taller and equipped with additional masts, has been under testing since 2022 and is set to become operational in 2025. It has a documented range of 2,000 kilometers and is designed to track low and medium-altitude targets with "improved precision"

4 sites are operational, with construction evidence indicating a 5 site, forming a multi-static network.

By building on the success of the Ghadir and incorporating advanced technology—Iran is enhancing its ability to respond to regional challenges. It’s a practical and determined effort to ensure its security/sovereignty.

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Популярні публікації Al-Ra'i—The Observer

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07.04.202515:58

14.04.202513:26

27.03.202500:39

Hi fam, I’m back. Apologies for being away—I needed a personal break. Ready to dive back in with the same energy and focus. Let’s get to it.

Al-Ra’i | The Observer

15.04.202506:08

12.04.202514:12

Yet Iran remains guarded, remembering the U.S. abandonment of the 2015 nuclear deal, which led to harsh sanctions and pushed Iran to advance its uranium enrichment, now close to weapons-grade

Years of U.S. policies, including economic pressure and regional interventions, deepen Iran’s doubts about fair negotiations.

“We won’t allow negotiations on what we consider our red lines,” said a senior Iranian official, hinting at Iran’s firm stance on missile capabilities and regional alliances.

01.04.202510:02

🇶🇦⫽🇦🇪⫽🇮🇱 Qatar and the UAE recently joined Israel in the Iniochos 2025 air exercise in Greece, held from March 31 to April 11, 2025, at Andravida Air Base.

This multinational drill saw over 60 aircraft and 1,000 personnel from countries like the「🇺🇸, 🇫🇷, 🇮🇳, 🇮🇹, 🇲🇪, 🇵🇱, 🇸🇮, 🇪🇸, and 🇧🇭」 alongside Greece’s Hellenic Air Force.

Qatar brought F-15 jets, the UAE sent Mirage 2000-9s, and Israel contributed a G-550 spy plane.

The exercise focused on advanced air combat training, testing tactics in realistic scenarios across the Aegean, with Greece deploying F-16s, Rafales, and more.

The last Iniochos, in 2023, also included Israel and the UAE.

16.04.202521:09

"The Levant could have been—no. That’s the wrong tense. The Levant was."

"It was a living thing before it was carved into segments, before Zionism rewrote not just borders but time itself."

"🇱🇧 . 🇵🇸 . 🇮🇶. 🇸🇾 —different names, same fracture."

This isn’t nostalgia. It’s an unpaid debt.

27.03.202500:36

🇮🇷❗: EnemyWatch nailed it—Iran’s role in the resistance isn’t just participation; it’s foundational. Decades of sacrifice have forged a nation that doesn’t bend. Shaykh Naim Qassim said it today: “We are all indebted to Iran.” He’s right. Since Imam Khomeini’s revolution, Iran has stared down empires, its resolve a quiet riddle to those obsessed with power/Control/Greed.

Psychologically, this isn’t blind stubbornness—it’s faith meeting strategy. Islam preaches patience under fire; Iran lives it, turning hardship into strength. Philosophically, it’s defiance with purpose. Where others see ruin, Iran sees meaning—a deliberate stand against a world hooked on control. Think of Badr: outmatched, overlooked, yet victorious.

The noise from analysts like Ritter or Hinkle? It’s a distraction, a shallow echo of Western doubt. Yes, the U.S. and its allies press hard—assassinations, economic chains—but they misjudge. Attrition bends what it can’t break; Iran’s spirit doesn’t bow. Imam Khamenei’s “We are ready” isn’t a boast—it’s a fact, carved from years of grit—backed by history/Promise.

Iran’s reach isn’t loud—but it’s deep. Ideas of sovereignty ripple out, unsettling the mighty, from Yemen to Lebanon. The West sees a target; I see a lesson in courage. Nasrallah and Qaani’s martyrdom isn’t loss—it’s fuel. In Islam, the martyr lives on, driving the fight. Silence doesn’t mean weakness; it’s wisdom—a wise who know.

Iran stands not for pity but for awe—a nation that knows its why.

15.04.202514:30

- In meetings that start five minutes late.
- In vague replies.
- In obedient nods followed by quiet revisions.

- Not because diplomacy is weakness, but because bureaucracy is.
- Because institutions drift.
- Because even in a system built on ideology, self-preservation is the strongest instinct.

There’s a kind of wisdom here. A government—even one built top-down—is never really a command. “It’s a conversation pretending to be a monologue.”

When he says “self-reliance” but still engages, it’s not contradiction—it’s governance. It’s how control survives.

08.04.202511:10

—

03.04.202516:17

14.04.202508:07

- Unfreezing of its seized billions.
- Loosening of oil export chains
- Swift relief from the nuclear program’s suffocating sanctions.

05.04.202506:08

Drone operators, reduced to cogs in a soulless machine, execute orders with zero cultural awareness or verified intelligence, driven only by political pressure to “produce” illusory victories—with no grasp of Yemeni culture or ground intel.

Trump’s claim that this massacre “thwarted an attack” is absurd. The AnsarAllah—veterans in asymmetric warfare—would never strategize in exposed, open-air circles.

Such claims are deliberate lies and proof of staggering ignorance.

And where’s the proof U.S. ships were ever sunk? “The silence speaks volumes.” Is the Pentagon hiding failures too embarrassing to admit?

History repeats: from Vietnam’s My Lai to Iraq’s Fallujah, the U.S. weaponizes words like “collateral damage” to sanitize mass civilian slaughter.

Meanwhile, Israel’s 1967 assault on the USS Liberty—killing U.S. sailors—goes unmentioned, exposing selective outrage.

Trump’s drone warriors, detached from the humanity they obliterate, operate with the moral clarity of a video game: drop bombs, log off, repeat.

This isn’t security—it’s state-sanctioned terrorism, broadcast openly now, stripped of even the pretense of accountability.

09.04.202519:57

- Map via seismic arrays + HUMINT.
- Collapse critical junctions (stress calc: ).
- Push Cairo for, subsurface lockdown.

"Uncut Egyptian access = Hamas endurance." Regional scope confirmed.

So, how's the land?

01.04.202516:15

🇮🇷⫽🇸🇦⫽🇶🇦⫽🇰🇼 Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Kuwait have secretly told Tehran: No U.S. warplanes will take off from their soil—no bombers, no refueling, no reconnaissance missions.

The Gulf is folding fast—fallout from TP2. They’ve seen Iran’s reach and understand the stakes. Their oil infrastructure is the first to burn in any escalation.

Self-preservation takes priority, with Saudi Arabia exporting 7 million barrels per day and Qatar 1.3 million. The attacks on OIL Co. were a lesson—one they haven’t forgotten.

Увійдіть, щоб розблокувати більше функціональності.