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Crypto Narratives

Link to my "Crypto Narratives" newsletter : https://cryptonarratives.substack.com/
Link to my Twitter profile : https://twitter.com/thedefivillain
Link to the TG degen channel : https://t.me/shitcoinsandgems

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Дата создания каналаБер 15, 2023

Добавлено на TGlist

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08.04.202510:22

$ETH is not only weak vs BTC, but it's even been weak vs altcoins for months now

06.04.202512:02

Despite the overall depressing price action, there were a few good trades to take in March, mostly news-driven :

- Max long $ADA $XRP $SOL on the Sunday crypto reserve tweet. Incredible trade that you could size up if you were early enough

- Long FARTCOIN around $200M-$250M mcap : huge discrepancy between small mcap and high mindshare + volume. 2x-3x trade in two weeks.

- Short $HYPE / long JELLYJELLY on the HLP exploit news.

- Long $TON on the Pavel Durov release news, and remain long for two weeks after that

- Long $BERA into the PoL launch + close or short on the 3rd tap of its deadly $9 resistance

- Long $MOVE on the news that they will 'reinject' (kek) $38M into the chart. +30% pump in a few hours.

- Short $HYPE from $20 at the beginning of the month with the thesis that all catalysts were behind, and that there was a huge amount of uPnL still hiding in a $20bn FDV coin in an extremely weak market.

- Short some of the huge short squeezes once they look exhausted : $MAVIA $AUCTION

- Short the Binance memecoins : MUBARAK above $150M mcap, $TUT above $50M mcap, BROCCOLI after each news pump

- Remain structurally short ETHBTC during the whole month

- Remain structurally short altcoins vs BTC during the whole month

- Remain structurally short the AI agent coins during the whole month

26.03.202515:29

I think they settled the trade without taking the losses

They lost almost $100M in TVL in HLP though

26.03.202513:39

HyperLiquid HLP is short $10M worth of JELLYJELLY, a coin with a $27M market cap

26.03.202510:40

The market is currently in no-man's land for me

No real altcoin appetite into clear narratives

We are still completely relying on tradfi which is hard to predict

BTC is looking good, Saylor is bidding and mNAV is holding, GME plans to buy too, and I am a bull on BTC by default. But we're now up 15% on the recent lows, and pumping dead small cap memes.

So this is not a place where I want to add risk, but in the same time, absolutely no reason to get overly bearish here.

My positioning is mostly : long BTC (largest pos by far) + long specific alts + short a huge basket of alts + short the alts that overshoot to the upside on a shorter timeframe

26.03.202510:21

We're at the state of the market where we are "squeezing" MOODENG and CHILLGUY again

25.03.202520:12

Best thing they could do to save $GME, by far

They have $5bn in cash iirc ?

It will be interesting to learn more about the exact playbook they plan to follow

24.03.202520:31

It's easy to have conviction in $BTC, but it's hard to find altcoins to get conviction in

On a long timeframe, only some inverse alts are comfortable...

24.03.202519:06

Saylor does have a money glitch to buy $BTC as long as the $MSTR premium remains elevated

Based on his previous BTC purchases, he wants to use the ATM (ie selling newly issued MSTR shares) when the premium is above 1.8

He stopped using it completely after early February but started doing it again last week.

And he's most likely going to get $700M tomorrow with the $STRF issuance on top of the $500M he deployed last week

Check regularly the MSTR premium (or MSTR/BTC ratio), and as long as it remains around current levels or above... well it means that he still has a lot of optionalities and 'dry powder' to purchase more BTC

Overall : that's bullish $BTC

24.03.202514:31

If you are flipping from bearish to bullish rn, you are doing something wrong

Force yourself to have the mind of a range trader

Become increasingly bullish as we go down, and increasingly cautious as we go up

24.03.202512:20

The good news is that Saylor is still going to have $700M more tomorrow with the STRF issuance

(He sold MSTR shares last week, I thought he wanted to stop doing that for some time)

24.03.202512:03

Ow shit

24.03.202512:03

AggrNews: MICROSTRATEGY PURCHASES 6,911 BITCOINS BETWEEN MAR 17 - MAR 23 AT AN AVERAGE OF $84,529 (TOTAL: $584.10M)

24.03.202510:24

I think Saylor announces a very small BTC purchase again (sub $30M), because the STRF issuance and sale is supposed to settle tomorrow. (So I don’t think he already has the $700M in cash)

24.03.202509:17

HYPE <> FARTCOIN barbell showing interesting things now

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