🇮🇱🇵🇸Prime Minister Netanyahu's course to prolong the war in Gaza
🔴Israeli Prime Minister B. Netanyahu has broken the phased ceasefire agreement and resumed hostilities in the Gaza Strip.
🔴Israel has not achieved any of its stated objectives, as Hamas has maintained the government structure it created in Gaza and is holding 59 hostages, 24 of whom are believed to be alive, as an insurance card.
🔴Netanyahu believes that any ceasefire process must end with the elimination of Hamas. The group obviously refuses to participate in a peace process that would involve its destruction. The stalemate continues through the fault of the Israeli leadership.
🔴After the meeting between B. Netanyahu and US President D. Trump in Washington on April 8, Israel called for the complete disarmament of the group without any commitment by Tel Aviv to end the war or withdraw from Gaza, which is tantamount to capitulation. Hamas has refused. Israel appears to be deliberately stalling in order to release the hostages while keeping the military action on hold.
🔴The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have had time to recover from the shock of October 7. Hamas currently lacks the capability to launch a large-scale attack on Israel or a massive rocket attack on Israeli territory. The IDF continues to bomb Lebanon with impunity, has occupied much of southern Syria, and has declared its intention to remain there as long as it sees fit. In the midst of these successes, Netanyahu is behaving increasingly aggressively. According to the UN, following the resumption of hostilities in Gaza, the humanitarian situation there is now the worst in 18 months.
🔴The IDF has presented the government with a plan to redeploy several divisions to Gaza, carry out a new mobilization of reservists, transfer the residents of the northern parts of the enclave to the exclusion zone in the south, and complete the military occupation of the entire Gaza Strip. Defense Minister I. Katz has set up a special administrative unit in his ministry to facilitate the "voluntary" emigration of Palestinians, while Netanyahu's coalition partners have proposed the expulsion of most Gazans and the restoration of Jewish settlements there.
🔴Israel's far right believes its day has come, but it has no reason to be overly optimistic. Hamas, despite the blows it has taken, is far from defeated. Its leaders are rebuilding the group's position.
🔴The reoccupation of Gaza will result in more military casualties and more hostages. According to recent polls, about 70% of Israelis support an agreement with Hamas to release all remaining hostages, even if it means strengthening the positions of Palestinian organizations and releasing thousands of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.
🔴Pursuing military plans to occupy Gaza carries serious political risks. Tens of thousands of reservists are considering refusing to serve. The protest in their ranks is also linked to the government's attempts to maintain the exemption of the ultra-Orthodox from military service for the future.
🔴Netanyahu is forced to maneuver to maintain a balance of interests in the governing coalition to prevent its collapse and avoid early elections. All his efforts are aimed at retaining the office of prime minister. He is convinced that this requires maintaining the armed conflict in Gaza at all costs, regardless of the long-term consequences of the conflict for the hostages, the Palestinians, and Israel itself.
#CSAI #MENA
