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Ukraine War Analysis

A deeper analysis of the war for those tired of the propaganda
Also weekly summaries to help people follow the latest key developments
https://t.me/UkraineWarAnalysisChat

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19.02.202520:43

Zelensky's reasoning on why having elections is impossible from last week

"I am not against elections. But [if we hold them] what happens? We either have to end or suspend martial law. And if we stop it, we lose the army. And the Russians will be happy"

19.02.202519:32

I should also add that the Ukrainian Supreme Court, which would be ruling on the various issues of elections and martial law, currently has no quorum. Selection of new judges is ongoing and the appointments are not expected until the first half of March.

Most importantly, once these justices pass the selection process Zelensky has the final decision on who to appoint.

19.02.202518:09

I said it yesterday, Zelensky badly miscalculated. Should have let his advisors be his mouthpiece or let the EU leadership attack Trump. Anything but a public confrontation.

Russia insisting on elections in Ukraine as a pre-requisite to a peace deal is a smart tactic. As Zelensky himself pointed out, elections mean canceling martial law.

When martial law is gone mobilized soldiers have no legal obligation to fight, and could trigger a cascade of desertions. Even if they find a way to keep the mobilization law, why would you stay in the trenches when your government will change in a few weeks?

19.02.202503:43

The recap of talks in Saudi Arabia from the Russian Foreign Ministry is surprising. No actual discussion about the end of the war was conducted. Key points

• U.S. and Russia agree to start normalizing relations, including appointment of new ambassadors and staff

• Opening dialogues for economic cooperation and other spheres

• Agreed that both sides wanted an end to the war and agreed to appoint representatives to begin those talks at a future time

• Most importantly, I think, Russia considers NATO peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil to be a non-starter

So essentially they had a meeting to agree on future meetings. Did someone forget to paste the agenda into the calendar invite?

14.02.202501:37

Guys I was joking stop putting sticks on your drones

13.02.202500:07

Summary of current negotiations on Ukraine:

09.02.202522:47

It is important to note, that the reason that NATO chose to supply Ukraine specifically with Storm Shadows but has been reluctant to supply Taurus or JASSMs is because the latter two have the range to reach Moscow. This would very likely trigger a response from the Kremlin, and dig a deeper hole for Trump's negotiations.

If ceasefire negotiations break down (which I find highly likely) then the supply of JASSMs and Taurus would be a logical pressure move and it's definitely something we might see.

09.02.202500:56

Helicopter rescues downed pilot at the front

An extremely interesting video just popped up of a Russian Su-25 pilot being rescued. The Su-25 was brought down by a soldier with MANPADS, the pilot managed to eject.

An Mi-8 helicopter on standby was scrambled for the rescue and that is where this gets interesting.

Ukrainians attempted to hit the helicopter with FPV drones but were thwarted by powerful jammers onboard the bird. You can even tell that the polarization of the jammer is focused fore and aft.

This was probably installed after successful takedowns of helicopters via small drones during the initial Kursk offensive.

Interesting sidenote that highlights the chaos of 2022, Russian pilots used to ditch their emergency radios because they either didn't work or could be easily picked up. There are numerous stories of downed pilots calling their commanders using their cell phones. Imagine what that phone call was like.

"Hey, so uh, I could use a lift"
"Didn't you use to have a plane?"

06.02.202517:18

After the Gaza reveal I can't wait to hear this shit

"We're gonna lease Azovstal and we're gonna build a big beautiful resort. Prime real estate, folks. It's going to be fantastic. It'll be great for the people of Mariupol, create thousands of jobs. And we're gonna have balconies, huge balconies."

05.02.202500:35

Bibi looks like he just got a free bagel and he's trying to get out of the store before the cashier notices the mistake

04.02.202522:57

With respect to Trump's comments about rare earth minerals securing an end to the war, it should be noted that much of the most lucrative of these exist in the already occupied Russian sections of the country.

Russia recently just overran the lithium deposits near Shevchenko. Trump's comments on resources does bring up an important and overlooked facet of the war.

The Donbass gets its name from the Donets Coal Basin (Донецкий угольный бассейн - hence Don Bass). It contains most of the valuable resources in the country, and as such it was heavily settled by Russian miners and workers. Frankly, the government in Kiev would never have allowed them to break away in 2014 regardless of what occurred. It would have been economic suicide over the long run.

04.02.202519:34

Confirmation of my damage pattern assessment from December, the Azerbaijan flight was brought down by a Pantsir.

It was hit as it circled the city during a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny

Just a reminder that I'm smart and handsome and know a lot about missiles.

02.02.202523:53

One of the most insane things I have ever seen, a Russian soldier on a bicycle leading a BMP onto the attack.

I can only imagine the thought process here was that he can more easily spot anti-tank mines. But I think the truth here is that they are just on another level of crazy.

They call him, the Stormcyclist

29.01.202500:22

Recreation of Russian pilot fired at by Patriot missiles

Good time to post this recreation of real life events, a Russian Su-34 being fired at by a Patriot battery. I've uploaded the audio for this before, this is a real recording between the pilot and Russian air control.

These were almost certainly PAC-2 missiles, the same model that Israel is transferring to Ukraine.

The two main avenues of evasion here are high G maneuvering and radar horizon. As the patriot missile is much faster than the jet it is difficult for it to match its maneuvers, and as the PAC-2 does not have an active radar seeker once the illuminating radar loses the target in ground clutter it can no longer be guided.

Original:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPyoHk1wjIk

28.01.202523:30

Now with the fall of Assad, Israel no longer has to fear consequences from Russia in Syria. They are transferring PAC-2 GEM+ Patriot launchers they have decommissioned to Ukraine, and the first batch of missiles have already landed. We've been wondering about these launchers for quite a while and we knew they were a hot topic for Zelensky.

Netanyahu also apparently doesn't care anymore about the electoral blowback, for what it's worth, because a significant portion of Israelis are of Russian extraction.

PAC-2s are an older model of launcher/missile that is better suited at shooting down air-breathing targets rather than ballistic missiles. But the extra supply of missiles alone will create problems for Russian pilots.

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19.08.202412:43Keith Woods

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Ukraine War Analysis популярдуу жазуулары

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19.02.202520:43

04.02.202522:57

13.02.202500:07

Summary of current negotiations on Ukraine:

02.02.202523:53

19.02.202503:43

06.02.202517:18

04.02.202519:34

09.02.202500:56

05.02.202500:35

Bibi looks like he just got a free bagel and he's trying to get out of the store before the cashier notices the mistake

09.02.202522:47

19.02.202519:32

28.01.202523:30

19.02.202518:09

14.02.202501:37

Guys I was joking stop putting sticks on your drones

29.01.202500:22

Көбүрөөк функцияларды ачуу үчүн кириңиз.