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Demographics Now and Then

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04.03.202510:31

When China gets to the 2050 pyramid basically nothing can be done to avoid losing many hundreds of millions of people. The die is cast. That is where many many countries will be by 2050. Germany, Japan, Italy, South Korea etc

27.02.202521:49

El Salvador on 1.4 TFR, Guatemala on 1.85, Panama on 1.78, Costa Rica 1.15, Nicaragua 2.0, Honduras 2.1. With high emigration Central America looks set for natural decline relatively soon. This area could become the Western Hemisphere’s Eastern Europe demographically speaking.

19.02.202500:28

🇹🇼👶Epic demographic decline in January in Taiwan. 14% year on year decline in the first month of 2025. Taiwan will hit South Korean TFR levels this year if this trend holds and may end up with a TFR of ~0.75.

https://www.stat.gov.tw/Statistics.aspx?n=2961&CaN=363

13.02.202518:21

In India the total number of births last year was more than births of China, the United States, Brazil, Egypt, Canada, Korea (North and South), Italy, Japan, Russia combined. Despite the latter countries having more than 2.5 billion combined people. 23 million plus births with a TFR of just 1.9. Population momentum powerful…

13.02.202504:47

France looks set to have no further natural growth by 2030. That is if TFR stays in the 1.55-1.65 range. If it goes below 1.55 then this will obviously happen sooner. The French government already provides generous pro-natal policies & has for years. No longer enough it seems.

13.02.202504:46

Romanian births dropped below 150,000 in 2024(149,612)for the 1st time in its modern history. During height of the birth boom from 1967-1969, in the wake of Ceaușescu's Decree 770,births were more than three times higher. Births were above 300,000 from 1967-1990 before plunging.

09.02.202519:17

Busan, South Korea is a living example of a city with extinction level fertility (according to even the Korean government). It is aging far faster than Seoul, young people are fleeing, & it is near the highest on the extinction risk index of Korea (for ref Sejong a TFR leader).

Many homes are vacant there and many elderly live alone. Busan has the lowest fertility rate in South Korea itself the country with the worlds lowest fertility rate. Thank you to @chiragmahe for the link. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/1a8920e7-6851-4f96-91bc-4327a3f0dddd

03.02.202516:40

The disappearance of children in East Asia is nothing short of astonishing. After hitting a peak above 425 million in the late 1970s the number of children has plummeted to only around 250 million today & will likely fall below 100 million below 2070. Our world is changing.

03.02.202512:04

🇵🇱👶Polish births fell by around 20,000 last year to around 252,000. Poland had approximately the same TFR as China in 2024 (1.10). Natural decline topped 150,000. TFR was still above lowest low as recently as 2021. Truly a massive fall these past few years.

https://t.co/07AahTzQiH

31.01.202519:00

Based on the latest Census the Fertility Rate in El Salvador has plummeted to just 1.4. The Capital San Salvador has a TFR of just 1.14, an East Asian or European low.

31.01.202514:20

So official Ukrainian stats on 2024 births are out & births fell by another 5.7% last year to sub 180,000 (176,679 to be exact). Better than numbers from January to June which showed a 9.4% decline in births but still bad. Hard to see postwar bump making up for all lost births.

So 176,679 births and 495,090 deaths last year. Huge natural decline. This obviously does not count missing, and presumed dead, soldiers of which there are many. Lviv (despite having a relatively modest sized population) saw the highest number of births after Kyiv.

https://t.co/EyjI91ZVhA

30.01.202511:51

Ukrainian births apparently fell to a more than 300 year low in 2023. The lowest low of ~187,000 births is due to both the humongous number of women aged 18-40 who have left the country as well as other effects from a war that cratered an already low TFR.

Births may have fallen even further (to below 180,000) in 2024. Considering births were sub 90,000 in the first half of 2024 this is very possible. If the millions of women who fled in 2022 and 2023 never return, Ukraine faces an existential threat even if they come out of the war still holding ~80% of their territory.

https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-birth-rate-plummets-to-300-year-low-as-country-s-population-collapses-321317/

26.01.202513:43

Former Yugoslavia as a whole healthier TFR wise than most of Europe. Ukraine not 1.0. Many more women 18-45 have left Ukraine than this accounts for. Probably TFR closer to 1.2. Don’t see this Europe still being a major world player come 2050. Unlike US, no big Gen Z cohort.

The US, UK, & Australia have large Gen Z cohorts so there is still hope for a significant rebound in total births even if TFR only gets back to 1.7-1.8. Even if Europe were to also rise to this level the corresponding rise in births would be far less significant.

26.01.202501:05

According to the French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), in 2024 663,000 children were born. This is 2.2% fewer than in 2023 and 21.5% fewer than in 2010, the year of the last peak in births, lowest level since 1945.

https://t.co/s9M3wbH57j