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Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:
Megatron
10.04.202519:16
BREAKING: 🇪🇺🇨🇳 EU and China have started negotiations to abolish EU tariffs on Chinese electrical vehicles - Handelsblatt reports
@Megatron_ron
@Megatron_ron
10.04.202519:16
Long term this is great for BYD and bad for Tesla. To make matters worse for Tesla, trumps retard tarrifs are making lithium very expensive for Tesla.
Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:
Bellerophon's Autism Plantation
09.04.202520:46
"The market dipped, then the market rose. It was a lesson to decrease your attachment to this material realm.
You must trust the plan to attain trve enlightenment."
You must trust the plan to attain trve enlightenment."
09.04.202518:24
He even managed to make my portfolio write "W"
09.04.202518:16
Watch it go -10% next hour when orange man does something retarded
Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:
Retarded Ramblings (Punished Edition)
09.04.202507:38
⚡️ Hungarian Minister of the National Economy Márton Nagy, has threatened Donald Trump with retaliation tarrifs of 57 percent on critical aviation, space, and, air transport equipment if he attempts his 10 percent tarrifs on Hungarian exports.
Hungary has disappeared from the list of nations facing tarrifs.
Hungary has disappeared from the list of nations facing tarrifs.
09.04.202505:25
To understand volatility decay:
%’s are smaller going down than going up:
$1000 to $50 is a 95% loss
$50 to $1000 is a 2000% gain
If I have an ETF do a 40% gain on day 1 and a 40% loss on day 2 then a 2x leveraged ETF (which resets the leverage every day) will have an 80% gain on day 1 and an 80% loss on day 2. There is more $ per loss in a % going down over the same interval
ETF
Day 0: $100
Day 1: $100*1.40=$140.00
Day 2: $140*.60=$84.00
2x ETF
Day 0: $100
Day 1: $100*1.80=$180.00
Day 2: $100*.20=$20.00
%’s are smaller going down than going up:
$1000 to $50 is a 95% loss
$50 to $1000 is a 2000% gain
If I have an ETF do a 40% gain on day 1 and a 40% loss on day 2 then a 2x leveraged ETF (which resets the leverage every day) will have an 80% gain on day 1 and an 80% loss on day 2. There is more $ per loss in a % going down over the same interval
ETF
Day 0: $100
Day 1: $100*1.40=$140.00
Day 2: $140*.60=$84.00
2x ETF
Day 0: $100
Day 1: $100*1.80=$180.00
Day 2: $100*.20=$20.00
09.04.202500:32
The internet has made active management harder. It used to be that if you understood an industry everyone outside of it had no idea and you had a huge advantage over them. Due to the internet the knowledge gap is smaller and more people can know more information and price it in faster. Racism and antisemitism allow us to make accurate predictions about the market that aren’t priced in because thinking this way is taboo
08.04.202521:29
Just spent and hour writing a wall text for it to get deleted when I clicked on a notification gonna KMS and restart it tomorrow.
It’s the new retirement strategy I developed:
A portfolio of
80% Stocks/20% Gold
And a 3 year cash cushion separate from that
Live off cash for 3 months and at the end of the 3 month period replenish your cash position only if the market is up from your previous adjusted all time high. If the market is down continue to live off of cash.
The cushion keeps you from getting skull fucked during recessions, stops little dips from hurting your growth in bull markets and allows for a much more aggressive allocation in your portfolio.
The back tests I did showed that it allows your portfolio to reach your escape velocity above your withdrawals faster.
It’s the new retirement strategy I developed:
A portfolio of
80% Stocks/20% Gold
And a 3 year cash cushion separate from that
Live off cash for 3 months and at the end of the 3 month period replenish your cash position only if the market is up from your previous adjusted all time high. If the market is down continue to live off of cash.
The cushion keeps you from getting skull fucked during recessions, stops little dips from hurting your growth in bull markets and allows for a much more aggressive allocation in your portfolio.
The back tests I did showed that it allows your portfolio to reach your escape velocity above your withdrawals faster.
08.04.202520:25
A pretty consistent pattern has emerged the past few days:
The market has gains at first and then there’s a downturn making the whole day red. It seems like people are trying to buy the dip but this can’t change reality. It might be stop buys getting triggered
The market has gains at first and then there’s a downturn making the whole day red. It seems like people are trying to buy the dip but this can’t change reality. It might be stop buys getting triggered
08.04.202505:48
Moderna Bros with the W. We told you that the state apparatus wouldn’t allow Kennedy to go full retard. He exists to get the schizo vote.
07.04.202515:54
US Steel up over 11% today amid the chaos
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-orders-new-review-of-us-steel-acquisition-by-nippon-steel.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/07/trump-orders-new-review-of-us-steel-acquisition-by-nippon-steel.html
06.04.202516:49
Very long term, Waste Management (WM) is a buy. It’s a very stable steady business practically with a monopoly that’s guaranteed to grow as long as the economy grows:
Economy grows = More stuff -> more stuff being thrown out = profit
Population growth means more people throwing out shit. It’s a stock tied to overall economic growth
.53 beta with similar growth to the S&P 500. I wish I bought before the crash.
Economy grows = More stuff -> more stuff being thrown out = profit
Population growth means more people throwing out shit. It’s a stock tied to overall economic growth
.53 beta with similar growth to the S&P 500. I wish I bought before the crash.
06.04.202515:30
Right now Ching Chong maximalism is good for your portfolio. Buy chinky tech stocks on the dip, China will win the trade war and the AI war.
Gold is long as it does well in recessions and periods of high inflation. The best performance ever of gold was during the stagflation of the 1970’s. Economists were talking about stagflation before trumps short bus tarrifs. It’s much more likely now if they stick.
TLT (long term treasury ETF) is long due to the possibility of rate cuts. TLT has a modified duration of 16.3. That means for every 1% change in the interest rate there is a 16.3% change in the price of TLT. Right now it pays a 4.25% dividend with almost no downside so you’re going to survive any recession that comes.
I’m not selling off any of my holdings at the moment.
Gold is long as it does well in recessions and periods of high inflation. The best performance ever of gold was during the stagflation of the 1970’s. Economists were talking about stagflation before trumps short bus tarrifs. It’s much more likely now if they stick.
TLT (long term treasury ETF) is long due to the possibility of rate cuts. TLT has a modified duration of 16.3. That means for every 1% change in the interest rate there is a 16.3% change in the price of TLT. Right now it pays a 4.25% dividend with almost no downside so you’re going to survive any recession that comes.
I’m not selling off any of my holdings at the moment.
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Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:Megatron
10.04.202519:16
BREAKING: 🇪🇺🇨🇳 EU and China have started negotiations to abolish EU tariffs on Chinese electrical vehicles - Handelsblatt reports
@Megatron_ron
@Megatron_ron
Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:Bellerophon's Autism Plantation
09.04.202520:46
"The market dipped, then the market rose. It was a lesson to decrease your attachment to this material realm.
You must trust the plan to attain trve enlightenment."
You must trust the plan to attain trve enlightenment."
31.03.202518:09
The case for gold:
Gold should never be more than 20% of your portfolio. Just like bonds I would hold more in retirement than during working years. I currently have 10% of my portfolio in physical gold ETF’s such as IAUM and GLD
The purpose of gold much like bonds to act as insurance on equities in case the stock market crashes. During recessions and periods of high inflation people flee to gold to preserve value in a physical commodity. While the S&P 500 has a superior return to gold from the end of the gold standard to today (1971-2025), a portfolio of 90% S&P 500 10% Gold rebalancing once a year has a superior total return to a portfolio of 100% S&P 500.
There are two main arguments against gold I’d like to address:
1. “Gold has extended periods of decline/stagnation followed by short periods of rapid growth.” Gold had a monumental price increase in the late 1970’s stagflation peaking in 1980. Gold then declined in value for 20 years before finally turning around in 2000.
The reason why this decline in gold happened was an extended bull market with no major recessions or economic crisis. Gold declined in value, because equities did magnificent. In the 2000’s, the lost decade of stocks, Gold was amazing.
If your gold has a shit return over a 10 year period, you should rejoice, because that means your equities did amazing. Gold serves its purpose as insurance against a stock market crash.
2. “Gold is pure speculation, it has no intrinsic value.” This is not true:
Golds uses:
49.2% Jewelry
19.26% Investment (bars/coins)
17.2% Central banks
12.14% industrial
2.2% unaccounted
66.4-68.6% of gold has an actual use. Jewelry is a luxury good. It’s not speculation. The vast majority of people who buy jewelry don’t do so as an investment. It’s usually much cheaper to go with an ETF or physical gold. People buy jewelry not to sell it at a higher price but to flex their own wealth and status. As long as there are men who want to impress pretty girls, there will be a demand for jewelry. As long as there are people who want to look wealthy and important, there will be a demand for jewelry.
2/3 of all economic growth is due to technology. As people get wealthier they spend more on luxury goods. Luxury goods as a % of world GDP has only increased with time, because the world has gotten wealthier.
As for the industrial uses of gold: There is an ever increasing demand for computer chips and thus an ever increasing demand for gold.
Gold is also used in medical devices an aging population means more gold. As nations get wealthier the % of their GDP that they spend on medical care increases meaning yet again we have an isn’t save where economic growth ensures gold growths at an even faster rate than the economy.
Gold should never be more than 20% of your portfolio. Just like bonds I would hold more in retirement than during working years. I currently have 10% of my portfolio in physical gold ETF’s such as IAUM and GLD
The purpose of gold much like bonds to act as insurance on equities in case the stock market crashes. During recessions and periods of high inflation people flee to gold to preserve value in a physical commodity. While the S&P 500 has a superior return to gold from the end of the gold standard to today (1971-2025), a portfolio of 90% S&P 500 10% Gold rebalancing once a year has a superior total return to a portfolio of 100% S&P 500.
There are two main arguments against gold I’d like to address:
1. “Gold has extended periods of decline/stagnation followed by short periods of rapid growth.” Gold had a monumental price increase in the late 1970’s stagflation peaking in 1980. Gold then declined in value for 20 years before finally turning around in 2000.
The reason why this decline in gold happened was an extended bull market with no major recessions or economic crisis. Gold declined in value, because equities did magnificent. In the 2000’s, the lost decade of stocks, Gold was amazing.
If your gold has a shit return over a 10 year period, you should rejoice, because that means your equities did amazing. Gold serves its purpose as insurance against a stock market crash.
2. “Gold is pure speculation, it has no intrinsic value.” This is not true:
Golds uses:
49.2% Jewelry
19.26% Investment (bars/coins)
17.2% Central banks
12.14% industrial
2.2% unaccounted
66.4-68.6% of gold has an actual use. Jewelry is a luxury good. It’s not speculation. The vast majority of people who buy jewelry don’t do so as an investment. It’s usually much cheaper to go with an ETF or physical gold. People buy jewelry not to sell it at a higher price but to flex their own wealth and status. As long as there are men who want to impress pretty girls, there will be a demand for jewelry. As long as there are people who want to look wealthy and important, there will be a demand for jewelry.
2/3 of all economic growth is due to technology. As people get wealthier they spend more on luxury goods. Luxury goods as a % of world GDP has only increased with time, because the world has gotten wealthier.
As for the industrial uses of gold: There is an ever increasing demand for computer chips and thus an ever increasing demand for gold.
Gold is also used in medical devices an aging population means more gold. As nations get wealthier the % of their GDP that they spend on medical care increases meaning yet again we have an isn’t save where economic growth ensures gold growths at an even faster rate than the economy.
08.04.202505:48
Moderna Bros with the W. We told you that the state apparatus wouldn’t allow Kennedy to go full retard. He exists to get the schizo vote.
09.04.202518:16
Watch it go -10% next hour when orange man does something retarded
21.03.202521:52
It’s a good idea to not buy very very small cap stocks. As we see here the S&P 600 outperforms the Russel 2000 which outperforms an index of all small cap stocks.
The S&P 600 is stocks 1001-1600 by market cap
The Russell 2000 is 1001-3000
Once you start to get really small there’s a lot of junk. A successful company won’t IPO at a tiny market cap as going public is less tax efficient. They go public because they’re getting too big to stay private and need financing that private equity companies can’t provide. The only way a company can be publicly traded and have a very tiny market cap is if they were once much larger and are now practically worthless. Penny stocks are filled with the Kodak’s of the world: Failures that will never again be successful and will never see significant growth.
The S&P 600 is stocks 1001-1600 by market cap
The Russell 2000 is 1001-3000
Once you start to get really small there’s a lot of junk. A successful company won’t IPO at a tiny market cap as going public is less tax efficient. They go public because they’re getting too big to stay private and need financing that private equity companies can’t provide. The only way a company can be publicly traded and have a very tiny market cap is if they were once much larger and are now practically worthless. Penny stocks are filled with the Kodak’s of the world: Failures that will never again be successful and will never see significant growth.
22.03.202505:17
Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) is a buy.
BRKB can be expected to grow at about the rate of the S&P 500 during bull markets years with much smaller downturns in a bear market. The large cash position of BRKB means the stock won’t drop as much in a recession. The large amount of industrials it privately owns add resilience as well. Berkshire has always thrived coming out of recessions by spending their pile of cash on extremely undervalued stocks. A recession is when markets are least efficient and no one has been better at picking value stocks than Buffet.
Warren Buffet himself has said that Berkshire has grown so large that it’s harder to get good returns on the company: with over $1 Trillion in market cap so few stocks are big enough that they have enough liquidity to be even 1% of Berkshire’s portfolio. If you exclude the cash position Buffet has an incredible return. He only picks stocks he’s certain of and hoards the rest in short term T-Bills
BRKB can be expected to grow at about the rate of the S&P 500 during bull markets years with much smaller downturns in a bear market. The large cash position of BRKB means the stock won’t drop as much in a recession. The large amount of industrials it privately owns add resilience as well. Berkshire has always thrived coming out of recessions by spending their pile of cash on extremely undervalued stocks. A recession is when markets are least efficient and no one has been better at picking value stocks than Buffet.
Warren Buffet himself has said that Berkshire has grown so large that it’s harder to get good returns on the company: with over $1 Trillion in market cap so few stocks are big enough that they have enough liquidity to be even 1% of Berkshire’s portfolio. If you exclude the cash position Buffet has an incredible return. He only picks stocks he’s certain of and hoards the rest in short term T-Bills
Көбүрөөк функцияларды ачуу үчүн кириңиз.