Ukraine War Analysis
19.02.202520:43
Zelensky's reasoning on why having elections is impossible from last week
"I am not against elections. But [if we hold them] what happens? We either have to end or suspend martial law. And if we stop it, we lose the army. And the Russians will be happy"
"I am not against elections. But [if we hold them] what happens? We either have to end or suspend martial law. And if we stop it, we lose the army. And the Russians will be happy"
14.02.202501:37
Guys I was joking stop putting sticks on your drones
06.02.202517:18
After the Gaza reveal I can't wait to hear this shit
"We're gonna lease Azovstal and we're gonna build a big beautiful resort. Prime real estate, folks. It's going to be fantastic. It'll be great for the people of Mariupol, create thousands of jobs. And we're gonna have balconies, huge balconies."
"We're gonna lease Azovstal and we're gonna build a big beautiful resort. Prime real estate, folks. It's going to be fantastic. It'll be great for the people of Mariupol, create thousands of jobs. And we're gonna have balconies, huge balconies."
02.02.202523:53
One of the most insane things I have ever seen, a Russian soldier on a bicycle leading a BMP onto the attack.
I can only imagine the thought process here was that he can more easily spot anti-tank mines. But I think the truth here is that they are just on another level of crazy.
They call him, the Stormcyclist
I can only imagine the thought process here was that he can more easily spot anti-tank mines. But I think the truth here is that they are just on another level of crazy.
They call him, the Stormcyclist
Медиа контентке
қол жеткізе алмадық
қол жеткізе алмадық
21.01.202523:57
Медиа контентке
қол жеткізе алмадық
қол жеткізе алмадық
16.01.202502:11
19.02.202519:32
I should also add that the Ukrainian Supreme Court, which would be ruling on the various issues of elections and martial law, currently has no quorum. Selection of new judges is ongoing and the appointments are not expected until the first half of March.
Most importantly, once these justices pass the selection process Zelensky has the final decision on who to appoint.
Most importantly, once these justices pass the selection process Zelensky has the final decision on who to appoint.
13.02.202500:07
Summary of current negotiations on Ukraine:
05.02.202500:35
Bibi looks like he just got a free bagel and he's trying to get out of the store before the cashier notices the mistake
29.01.202500:22
Recreation of Russian pilot fired at by Patriot missiles
Good time to post this recreation of real life events, a Russian Su-34 being fired at by a Patriot battery. I've uploaded the audio for this before, this is a real recording between the pilot and Russian air control.
These were almost certainly PAC-2 missiles, the same model that Israel is transferring to Ukraine.
The two main avenues of evasion here are high G maneuvering and radar horizon. As the patriot missile is much faster than the jet it is difficult for it to match its maneuvers, and as the PAC-2 does not have an active radar seeker once the illuminating radar loses the target in ground clutter it can no longer be guided.
Original:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPyoHk1wjIk
Good time to post this recreation of real life events, a Russian Su-34 being fired at by a Patriot battery. I've uploaded the audio for this before, this is a real recording between the pilot and Russian air control.
These were almost certainly PAC-2 missiles, the same model that Israel is transferring to Ukraine.
The two main avenues of evasion here are high G maneuvering and radar horizon. As the patriot missile is much faster than the jet it is difficult for it to match its maneuvers, and as the PAC-2 does not have an active radar seeker once the illuminating radar loses the target in ground clutter it can no longer be guided.
Original:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPyoHk1wjIk
21.01.202515:38
I don't think Trump's executive order suspending foreign aid applies to Ukraine. Those fall under a separate program of drawdowns and the security assistance initiative
12.01.202501:02
19.02.202518:09
I said it yesterday, Zelensky badly miscalculated. Should have let his advisors be his mouthpiece or let the EU leadership attack Trump. Anything but a public confrontation.
Russia insisting on elections in Ukraine as a pre-requisite to a peace deal is a smart tactic. As Zelensky himself pointed out, elections mean canceling martial law.
When martial law is gone mobilized soldiers have no legal obligation to fight, and could trigger a cascade of desertions. Even if they find a way to keep the mobilization law, why would you stay in the trenches when your government will change in a few weeks?
Russia insisting on elections in Ukraine as a pre-requisite to a peace deal is a smart tactic. As Zelensky himself pointed out, elections mean canceling martial law.
When martial law is gone mobilized soldiers have no legal obligation to fight, and could trigger a cascade of desertions. Even if they find a way to keep the mobilization law, why would you stay in the trenches when your government will change in a few weeks?
09.02.202522:47
It is important to note, that the reason that NATO chose to supply Ukraine specifically with Storm Shadows but has been reluctant to supply Taurus or JASSMs is because the latter two have the range to reach Moscow. This would very likely trigger a response from the Kremlin, and dig a deeper hole for Trump's negotiations.
If ceasefire negotiations break down (which I find highly likely) then the supply of JASSMs and Taurus would be a logical pressure move and it's definitely something we might see.
If ceasefire negotiations break down (which I find highly likely) then the supply of JASSMs and Taurus would be a logical pressure move and it's definitely something we might see.
04.02.202522:57
With respect to Trump's comments about rare earth minerals securing an end to the war, it should be noted that much of the most lucrative of these exist in the already occupied Russian sections of the country.
Russia recently just overran the lithium deposits near Shevchenko. Trump's comments on resources does bring up an important and overlooked facet of the war.
The Donbass gets its name from the Donets Coal Basin (Донецкий угольный бассейн - hence Don Bass). It contains most of the valuable resources in the country, and as such it was heavily settled by Russian miners and workers. Frankly, the government in Kiev would never have allowed them to break away in 2014 regardless of what occurred. It would have been economic suicide over the long run.
Russia recently just overran the lithium deposits near Shevchenko. Trump's comments on resources does bring up an important and overlooked facet of the war.
The Donbass gets its name from the Donets Coal Basin (Донецкий угольный бассейн - hence Don Bass). It contains most of the valuable resources in the country, and as such it was heavily settled by Russian miners and workers. Frankly, the government in Kiev would never have allowed them to break away in 2014 regardless of what occurred. It would have been economic suicide over the long run.
28.01.202523:30
Now with the fall of Assad, Israel no longer has to fear consequences from Russia in Syria. They are transferring PAC-2 GEM+ Patriot launchers they have decommissioned to Ukraine, and the first batch of missiles have already landed. We've been wondering about these launchers for quite a while and we knew they were a hot topic for Zelensky.
Netanyahu also apparently doesn't care anymore about the electoral blowback, for what it's worth, because a significant portion of Israelis are of Russian extraction.
PAC-2s are an older model of launcher/missile that is better suited at shooting down air-breathing targets rather than ballistic missiles. But the extra supply of missiles alone will create problems for Russian pilots.
Netanyahu also apparently doesn't care anymore about the electoral blowback, for what it's worth, because a significant portion of Israelis are of Russian extraction.
PAC-2s are an older model of launcher/missile that is better suited at shooting down air-breathing targets rather than ballistic missiles. But the extra supply of missiles alone will create problems for Russian pilots.
20.01.202519:31
To forestall any confusion I'm writing the Biden analysis from the perspective of the foreign policy establishment. Or at least the post mortem analysis they should be doing if they were honest with themselves
Which they're not because they are stupid
Which they're not because they are stupid
12.01.202500:24
An update to this, the Ukrainian attack appears to have been a one-off rather than a bigger operation as the Russians had feared. They managed to temporarily occupy the village of Berdin before being repulsed. Russian attacks managed to capture some ground to the northwest of the pocket.
The rumors of new Ukrainian electronic warfare that is able to prevent Russian guided bombs from functioning is also false. It was a misinterpretation of a post by a member of the Russian air force who was saying that they cannot use the glide bombs on moving targets, and needed to wait until the Ukrainians occupied a fixed position.
The rumors of new Ukrainian electronic warfare that is able to prevent Russian guided bombs from functioning is also false. It was a misinterpretation of a post by a member of the Russian air force who was saying that they cannot use the glide bombs on moving targets, and needed to wait until the Ukrainians occupied a fixed position.
19.02.202503:43
The recap of talks in Saudi Arabia from the Russian Foreign Ministry is surprising. No actual discussion about the end of the war was conducted. Key points
• U.S. and Russia agree to start normalizing relations, including appointment of new ambassadors and staff
• Opening dialogues for economic cooperation and other spheres
• Agreed that both sides wanted an end to the war and agreed to appoint representatives to begin those talks at a future time
• Most importantly, I think, Russia considers NATO peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil to be a non-starter
So essentially they had a meeting to agree on future meetings. Did someone forget to paste the agenda into the calendar invite?
• U.S. and Russia agree to start normalizing relations, including appointment of new ambassadors and staff
• Opening dialogues for economic cooperation and other spheres
• Agreed that both sides wanted an end to the war and agreed to appoint representatives to begin those talks at a future time
• Most importantly, I think, Russia considers NATO peacekeepers on Ukrainian soil to be a non-starter
So essentially they had a meeting to agree on future meetings. Did someone forget to paste the agenda into the calendar invite?
09.02.202500:56
Helicopter rescues downed pilot at the front
An extremely interesting video just popped up of a Russian Su-25 pilot being rescued. The Su-25 was brought down by a soldier with MANPADS, the pilot managed to eject.
An Mi-8 helicopter on standby was scrambled for the rescue and that is where this gets interesting.
Ukrainians attempted to hit the helicopter with FPV drones but were thwarted by powerful jammers onboard the bird. You can even tell that the polarization of the jammer is focused fore and aft.
This was probably installed after successful takedowns of helicopters via small drones during the initial Kursk offensive.
Interesting sidenote that highlights the chaos of 2022, Russian pilots used to ditch their emergency radios because they either didn't work or could be easily picked up. There are numerous stories of downed pilots calling their commanders using their cell phones. Imagine what that phone call was like.
"Hey, so uh, I could use a lift"
"Didn't you use to have a plane?"
An extremely interesting video just popped up of a Russian Su-25 pilot being rescued. The Su-25 was brought down by a soldier with MANPADS, the pilot managed to eject.
An Mi-8 helicopter on standby was scrambled for the rescue and that is where this gets interesting.
Ukrainians attempted to hit the helicopter with FPV drones but were thwarted by powerful jammers onboard the bird. You can even tell that the polarization of the jammer is focused fore and aft.
This was probably installed after successful takedowns of helicopters via small drones during the initial Kursk offensive.
Interesting sidenote that highlights the chaos of 2022, Russian pilots used to ditch their emergency radios because they either didn't work or could be easily picked up. There are numerous stories of downed pilots calling their commanders using their cell phones. Imagine what that phone call was like.
"Hey, so uh, I could use a lift"
"Didn't you use to have a plane?"
04.02.202519:34
Confirmation of my damage pattern assessment from December, the Azerbaijan flight was brought down by a Pantsir.
It was hit as it circled the city during a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny
Just a reminder that I'm smart and handsome and know a lot about missiles.
It was hit as it circled the city during a Ukrainian drone attack on Grozny
Just a reminder that I'm smart and handsome and know a lot about missiles.
24.01.202521:56
20.01.202513:04
Biden's Legacy on Ukraine
If you wanted to create a policy on Ukraine that made neither side happy, served none of the interests of your citizens and accomplished the opposite of what your goals were - I don't think you could have done a better job than the Biden administration.
Having the Opposite Effect - American foreign policy since the millennium has been to isolate Iran and North Korea, and to keep Russia and China apart. Between sanctions and military aid to Ukraine they have managed to completely undo decades of policy in the matter of few years. Two of the 'Axis of Evil' countries have now allied with one of the world's largest and now most experienced military. All three now have access to parallel financial institutions run by China, and our two largest military adversaries are now aligned closer than ever in opposition to the United States.
Incompetent and Indifferent - They attempted to forge a path of least resistance and political expediency. They thought they could both bleed Russia and at the same time leave the door open to a future reset of relations. To bring them back into the sphere say a decade from now and continue to work on them with American soft power and liberalism. This is a bizarre fantasy. What kind of reset button could you possibly offer them after you've helped kill tens of thousands of their sons?
It would have been far better to pick one or the other. Either sanctions and limited aid, or full commitment to military success. Instead we transferred just enough to make sure Ukraine didn't lose, enough to delay and bleed Russia. By the time restrictions on weapons use were lifted, the Russians had already adapted to minimize the damage. And what's worse, transferring any significant number of the thousands of tanks and aircraft rotting in the California desert was ruled out not because of fear of escalation, but rather a deep rooted incompetence and feeling of indifference from the managerial class who are far more interested in painting gay pride flags on the side of the turrets.
And what did they manage to achieve for all this? A war where no one wins. At best a partially occupied Ukraine and a frozen conflict that will reignite in the future. And at worst, the planting of seeds for a great reckoning.
If you wanted to create a policy on Ukraine that made neither side happy, served none of the interests of your citizens and accomplished the opposite of what your goals were - I don't think you could have done a better job than the Biden administration.
Having the Opposite Effect - American foreign policy since the millennium has been to isolate Iran and North Korea, and to keep Russia and China apart. Between sanctions and military aid to Ukraine they have managed to completely undo decades of policy in the matter of few years. Two of the 'Axis of Evil' countries have now allied with one of the world's largest and now most experienced military. All three now have access to parallel financial institutions run by China, and our two largest military adversaries are now aligned closer than ever in opposition to the United States.
Incompetent and Indifferent - They attempted to forge a path of least resistance and political expediency. They thought they could both bleed Russia and at the same time leave the door open to a future reset of relations. To bring them back into the sphere say a decade from now and continue to work on them with American soft power and liberalism. This is a bizarre fantasy. What kind of reset button could you possibly offer them after you've helped kill tens of thousands of their sons?
It would have been far better to pick one or the other. Either sanctions and limited aid, or full commitment to military success. Instead we transferred just enough to make sure Ukraine didn't lose, enough to delay and bleed Russia. By the time restrictions on weapons use were lifted, the Russians had already adapted to minimize the damage. And what's worse, transferring any significant number of the thousands of tanks and aircraft rotting in the California desert was ruled out not because of fear of escalation, but rather a deep rooted incompetence and feeling of indifference from the managerial class who are far more interested in painting gay pride flags on the side of the turrets.
And what did they manage to achieve for all this? A war where no one wins. At best a partially occupied Ukraine and a frozen conflict that will reignite in the future. And at worst, the planting of seeds for a great reckoning.
11.01.202502:24
The War in 2024 - A Retrospective
Part 2
See Part 1: https://t.me/UkraineWarAnalysis/607
• Ammunition and Manpower Shortages - In 2024 Ukraine experienced acute shortages of ammunition, manpower and transport. Part of this was due to the fight over aid packages in the U.S. Congress. Ammunition deliveries eventually resumed but they are still outmatched 3 to 1 in terms of shells. Manpower is a continuing problem, made worse by the long deliberations about lowering the age of mobilization to 25 in the Ukrainian Rada.
• ATACMS and long range strike permission - In August they began striking Russian territory in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts with HIMARS initially without permission. This was retroactively granted. After the U.S. election permission for ATACMS and storm shadow strikes was given. From what we can tell, the significant drop in Russian glide bomb usage during December was at least partly due to relocation of aircraft further away from the front.
• Casualties - Using public obituaries both sides were around the 20,000 KIA count for the year 2024. This should be considered a minimum, missing are not accounted for. It is however difficult to estimate the actual KIA numbers, especially with the lack of media interest in investigating Ukrainian losses.
One thing I want to note is the continued reporting of the media about 'Russians advancing despite massive losses' is false, and a deliberate excuse. Overall losses for 2024 were less than 2023. The fall of Avdiivka and Vuhledar combined with reallocation of reserves to Kursk are the main reasons for the sudden movement of the front.
• Glide bombs - Russia began mass production of glide bombs in late 2023 and so far has dropped more than 30,000 of them. These have made a massive difference. In the past where it may take hours or days to reduce a building with conventional artillery, glide bombs destroy them while leaving little chance for the defenders to escape.
• Drones - 2024 saw major evolutions in drone technology in a running battle against electronic warfare. New developments came on nearly a month by month basis, culminating in the new series of fiber optic drones now in use with both sides. In 2025 it is expected the first true drone swarms will make an appearance, being centrally controlled or even using fully autonomous targeting. Drone motherships are currently being tested in battlefield conditions.
Part 2
See Part 1: https://t.me/UkraineWarAnalysis/607
• Ammunition and Manpower Shortages - In 2024 Ukraine experienced acute shortages of ammunition, manpower and transport. Part of this was due to the fight over aid packages in the U.S. Congress. Ammunition deliveries eventually resumed but they are still outmatched 3 to 1 in terms of shells. Manpower is a continuing problem, made worse by the long deliberations about lowering the age of mobilization to 25 in the Ukrainian Rada.
• ATACMS and long range strike permission - In August they began striking Russian territory in Kursk and Bryansk oblasts with HIMARS initially without permission. This was retroactively granted. After the U.S. election permission for ATACMS and storm shadow strikes was given. From what we can tell, the significant drop in Russian glide bomb usage during December was at least partly due to relocation of aircraft further away from the front.
• Casualties - Using public obituaries both sides were around the 20,000 KIA count for the year 2024. This should be considered a minimum, missing are not accounted for. It is however difficult to estimate the actual KIA numbers, especially with the lack of media interest in investigating Ukrainian losses.
One thing I want to note is the continued reporting of the media about 'Russians advancing despite massive losses' is false, and a deliberate excuse. Overall losses for 2024 were less than 2023. The fall of Avdiivka and Vuhledar combined with reallocation of reserves to Kursk are the main reasons for the sudden movement of the front.
• Glide bombs - Russia began mass production of glide bombs in late 2023 and so far has dropped more than 30,000 of them. These have made a massive difference. In the past where it may take hours or days to reduce a building with conventional artillery, glide bombs destroy them while leaving little chance for the defenders to escape.
• Drones - 2024 saw major evolutions in drone technology in a running battle against electronic warfare. New developments came on nearly a month by month basis, culminating in the new series of fiber optic drones now in use with both sides. In 2025 it is expected the first true drone swarms will make an appearance, being centrally controlled or even using fully autonomous targeting. Drone motherships are currently being tested in battlefield conditions.
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