Demographics Now and Then
04.03.202510:31
When China gets to the 2050 pyramid basically nothing can be done to avoid losing many hundreds of millions of people. The die is cast. That is where many many countries will be by 2050. Germany, Japan, Italy, South Korea etc
13.02.202504:47
France looks set to have no further natural growth by 2030. That is if TFR stays in the 1.55-1.65 range. If it goes below 1.55 then this will obviously happen sooner. The French government already provides generous pro-natal policies & has for years. No longer enough it seems.
03.02.202512:04
🇵🇱👶Polish births fell by around 20,000 last year to around 252,000. Poland had approximately the same TFR as China in 2024 (1.10). Natural decline topped 150,000. TFR was still above lowest low as recently as 2021. Truly a massive fall these past few years.
https://t.co/07AahTzQiH
https://t.co/07AahTzQiH
26.01.202513:43
Former Yugoslavia as a whole healthier TFR wise than most of Europe. Ukraine not 1.0. Many more women 18-45 have left Ukraine than this accounts for. Probably TFR closer to 1.2. Don’t see this Europe still being a major world player come 2050. Unlike US, no big Gen Z cohort.
The US, UK, & Australia have large Gen Z cohorts so there is still hope for a significant rebound in total births even if TFR only gets back to 1.7-1.8. Even if Europe were to also rise to this level the corresponding rise in births would be far less significant.
The US, UK, & Australia have large Gen Z cohorts so there is still hope for a significant rebound in total births even if TFR only gets back to 1.7-1.8. Even if Europe were to also rise to this level the corresponding rise in births would be far less significant.
19.01.202511:33
Great chart showing fix China is in demographically. Both young & working populations currently declining rapidly as elderly population(in need of health & social+financial support) grows massively. China falls below the 1 billion mark as early as the 2060s.
31.12.202413:59
In Australia East Asian TFR is almost as low as in sending countries (and in many cases even lower). Australian Koreans on 0.86 vs 0.73 in South Korea. Australian Taiwanese on 0.71 vs 0.85 in Taiwan. Australian Chinese on 0.85 vs 1.0 in the PRC.
27.02.202521:49
El Salvador on 1.4 TFR, Guatemala on 1.85, Panama on 1.78, Costa Rica 1.15, Nicaragua 2.0, Honduras 2.1. With high emigration Central America looks set for natural decline relatively soon. This area could become the Western Hemisphere’s Eastern Europe demographically speaking.
13.02.202504:46
Romanian births dropped below 150,000 in 2024(149,612)for the 1st time in its modern history. During height of the birth boom from 1967-1969, in the wake of Ceaușescu's Decree 770,births were more than three times higher. Births were above 300,000 from 1967-1990 before plunging.
31.01.202519:00
Based on the latest Census the Fertility Rate in El Salvador has plummeted to just 1.4. The Capital San Salvador has a TFR of just 1.14, an East Asian or European low.
26.01.202501:05
According to the French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), in 2024 663,000 children were born. This is 2.2% fewer than in 2023 and 21.5% fewer than in 2010, the year of the last peak in births, lowest level since 1945.
https://t.co/s9M3wbH57j
https://t.co/s9M3wbH57j
14.01.202516:57
Would not be surprised if difference in religiosity between Korean Americans & South Koreans is a major factor in explaining the much higher Korean American than South Korean fertility rate. Less stressful work culture in the United States also a probable contributing factor.
23.12.202412:24
The 2030s will be the decade where several major European & East Asian economies see 20% or more of their population being age 70 and above. In 2030 Italy hits this milestone, in 2033 Germany, 2034 South Korea & Spain, & in 2035 France & Taiwan. Over 90% of 70+ retired.
The age 60 plus voting bloc will be a clear majority of the electorate in most of these countries. Will be hard to have natalism, a push for new infrastructure, a push for more defense spending, & pension & healthcare remain untouched all at the same time.
Unlike the U.S. and Australia Europe and East Asia do not have a large Generation Z. That is their downfall. They will put more and more of a tax burden on a smaller and smaller population. This is not sustainable. Lots for other countries to learn from this.
The age 60 plus voting bloc will be a clear majority of the electorate in most of these countries. Will be hard to have natalism, a push for new infrastructure, a push for more defense spending, & pension & healthcare remain untouched all at the same time.
Unlike the U.S. and Australia Europe and East Asia do not have a large Generation Z. That is their downfall. They will put more and more of a tax burden on a smaller and smaller population. This is not sustainable. Lots for other countries to learn from this.
19.02.202500:28
🇹🇼👶Epic demographic decline in January in Taiwan. 14% year on year decline in the first month of 2025. Taiwan will hit South Korean TFR levels this year if this trend holds and may end up with a TFR of ~0.75.
https://www.stat.gov.tw/Statistics.aspx?n=2961&CaN=363
https://www.stat.gov.tw/Statistics.aspx?n=2961&CaN=363
09.02.202519:17
Busan, South Korea is a living example of a city with extinction level fertility (according to even the Korean government). It is aging far faster than Seoul, young people are fleeing, & it is near the highest on the extinction risk index of Korea (for ref Sejong a TFR leader).
Many homes are vacant there and many elderly live alone. Busan has the lowest fertility rate in South Korea itself the country with the worlds lowest fertility rate. Thank you to @chiragmahe for the link. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/1a8920e7-6851-4f96-91bc-4327a3f0dddd
Many homes are vacant there and many elderly live alone. Busan has the lowest fertility rate in South Korea itself the country with the worlds lowest fertility rate. Thank you to @chiragmahe for the link. Source: https://www.ft.com/content/1a8920e7-6851-4f96-91bc-4327a3f0dddd
31.01.202514:20
So official Ukrainian stats on 2024 births are out & births fell by another 5.7% last year to sub 180,000 (176,679 to be exact). Better than numbers from January to June which showed a 9.4% decline in births but still bad. Hard to see postwar bump making up for all lost births.
So 176,679 births and 495,090 deaths last year. Huge natural decline. This obviously does not count missing, and presumed dead, soldiers of which there are many. Lviv (despite having a relatively modest sized population) saw the highest number of births after Kyiv.
https://t.co/EyjI91ZVhA
So 176,679 births and 495,090 deaths last year. Huge natural decline. This obviously does not count missing, and presumed dead, soldiers of which there are many. Lviv (despite having a relatively modest sized population) saw the highest number of births after Kyiv.
https://t.co/EyjI91ZVhA
24.01.202503:22
With a fertility rate of ~1.0 your people basically complete evaporate within four generations… South Korea likely an empty shell by 2100.
06.01.202515:18
🇹🇭👶 462,240. That’s the number of Thai births in 2024. To put this into perspective Thailand saw 1,221,228 births in 1971, so nearly three times last years number. Thailand demographically pulling a Taiwan or Korea when it is far less economically developed, this will become common for most developing countries from Sri Lanka to Costa Rica to the Philippines to Colombia.
21.12.202413:57
Really like this map showing biggest 5 year generational cohorts in each country (even though it made some mistakes with China & a few other places). It shows what is economically in store for us in coming years. Europe burns out first, then East Asia, then Brazil, US+India.
13.02.202518:21
In India the total number of births last year was more than births of China, the United States, Brazil, Egypt, Canada, Korea (North and South), Italy, Japan, Russia combined. Despite the latter countries having more than 2.5 billion combined people. 23 million plus births with a TFR of just 1.9. Population momentum powerful…
03.02.202516:40
The disappearance of children in East Asia is nothing short of astonishing. After hitting a peak above 425 million in the late 1970s the number of children has plummeted to only around 250 million today & will likely fall below 100 million below 2070. Our world is changing.
30.01.202511:51
Ukrainian births apparently fell to a more than 300 year low in 2023. The lowest low of ~187,000 births is due to both the humongous number of women aged 18-40 who have left the country as well as other effects from a war that cratered an already low TFR.
Births may have fallen even further (to below 180,000) in 2024. Considering births were sub 90,000 in the first half of 2024 this is very possible. If the millions of women who fled in 2022 and 2023 never return, Ukraine faces an existential threat even if they come out of the war still holding ~80% of their territory.
https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-birth-rate-plummets-to-300-year-low-as-country-s-population-collapses-321317/
Births may have fallen even further (to below 180,000) in 2024. Considering births were sub 90,000 in the first half of 2024 this is very possible. If the millions of women who fled in 2022 and 2023 never return, Ukraine faces an existential threat even if they come out of the war still holding ~80% of their territory.
https://www.intellinews.com/ukraine-s-birth-rate-plummets-to-300-year-low-as-country-s-population-collapses-321317/
19.01.202511:34
🇹🇭In 2024 Thai households carried debt worth 92% of the country's GDP, a bit shy of the 99% ratio America reached in 2007. Don’t see how Thailand turns its demographic crisis around near or medium term. High social media saturation, debt, economic decline.
Thailand has a fertility rate below 1.0 & is in a far less developed economic state than most countries are at the stage their people begin carrying this level of debt. But I expect this to basically become the norm for more & more developing countries.
https://t.co/V20ozIyinD
Thailand has a fertility rate below 1.0 & is in a far less developed economic state than most countries are at the stage their people begin carrying this level of debt. But I expect this to basically become the norm for more & more developing countries.
https://t.co/V20ozIyinD
01.01.202514:50
The population of the entire African Continent will never break 3 billion. Even completely excluding the Sahara and other deserts it is much bigger than India, China, Japan, Germany, & the UK combined (total population of just those areas is more than 3 billion today).
Global population will eventually stabilize or decline almost everywhere (only around half dozen smaller countries are projected to have replacement TFR by 2050). Virtually all data is pointing in that direction.
Global population will eventually stabilize or decline almost everywhere (only around half dozen smaller countries are projected to have replacement TFR by 2050). Virtually all data is pointing in that direction.
21.12.202413:56
Thailand seems to be following the lower 80% prediction interval on births at present. Births in 2024 on track to be sub 500,000. If this track continues expect births to fall below 400,000 by 2040. Will have knock on effects on neighbors as many immigrate to Thailand from Burma/Myanmar, Cambodia, Laos etc.
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