Hansolar’s Daily Volatility

Daily market updates on BTC ETH Alts & Options
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चैनल निर्माण की तिथिЛют 09, 2025

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Жовт 23, 2024

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HanSolarTG defi, crypto, options

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समूह "Hansolar’s Daily Volatility" में नवीनतम पोस्ट

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26.02.202501:56

2025-02-26
Daily Vol : BOTTOM? PLEASE???

Took some drawdowns bidding the dip, but happy with positioning now.

Bid the bottom of BTC quite nicely with good size averaging at 87k after entering a bit early and getting clipped at 91k.

Amongst seasoned traders, 75k seems to be the consensus bid level atm. Agree it’s a good level to bid.

The support here at 88k is the market’s attempt to frontrun that, but feels like a low conviction stance. I think this support could fall apart on macro headwinds, which continue to look worrying; elevated vix, falling yields, and rising yen.

So I’m staying nimble, raising BTC stops up to break even and staying neutral/short on the alt side.

There is not much to be bullish at the moment
- Coinbase premium is strongly negative
- No kimchi premium
- Sizable ETF outflows

It basically looks like the binance bid-block is holding up the whole market.

Not great.

On the bull side
- Longer term options skews are bullish
- Sentiment is poor
- We’ve taken lots of liquidity; meaning we might be out of aggressive sellers

**SOL**
Aggressive sellers still dictating price, but orderbook looking better and better.

Currently using SOL and WIF as a short-leg, but could see a reversal soon.

**ETH**
Bridging flows showing capital rotating back from BNB and SOL.

I really want to like ETH, but still feel like i want to puke when longing hahaha

Pairing with SOL shorts atm.

Would like to see more technical strength.

Large bids at 2200, want to get avg price down to that level if we get the chance.

26.02.202501:56

25.02.202522:37

BTC BOTTOM
LONG BTC
WHAT ALT SHOULD I LONG

25.02.202502:22

looks like SOL unlocks are still not priced in
i like Avi’s view that ETH could be a better alt long position now

25.02.202501:43

2025-02-25

gm goblin town residents

1000x on BTC
What is the market targeting? 150k?
90k is still not that good value.
75k is okay, but a bit low.

1000x on Alts
Re-emphasizing long ALT/BTC
Alts seem bottomed, and not enough sellers
HYPE doesn’t do as well on the rebound

Thoughts on 1000x
I think this is getting more merit now
The hard part is finding the needle in the haystack
Agree that HYPE could be sluggishness on a rebound

General Thoughts
Technically looking bottomey
Sentiment is awful
Gonna take a stab at longs
Also testing ALT/BTC long trade

Positioning : Neutral/Long
Closed shorts : XRP POPCAT
Shorts left open : ETH SUI AVAX WIF
Adding longs to BTC, BERA, TAO and SOL
Still keeping BTC as main long

24.02.202517:14

https://x.com/hansolar21/status/1894072941555355915

23.02.202522:20

2025-02-24 Daily Vol
g-monday-m 🌞
I’ll be honest, doesn’t look great this week…

$1.5b Bybit Hack and ETH
- ETH/BTC had a strong weekend since the hack
- Bybit having to buy back the ETH they lost seems to be supporting it.
- The missing 20% has been bought over the weekend; $300m, But ETH/BTC continues showing strength afterwards. https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1893594968150688176
- Perhaps ETH has finally run out of sellers?
- The chart does look quite bottomey after a 2.5 year down trend relative to BTC
- But the elevated CME OI still makes me hesitent

Macro
- SPX hard rejection off ATHs 6160 again, while VIX also up 20% and yields falling point to possible growth scares?
- When VIX spikes and yields fall together, the S&P 500 tends to underperform over the next 5 trading days. https://x.com/i/grok/share/teWxNyfOtVF5Faz5e9wxFSUVt
- Gold : Strong up trend.
- Gold price drivers : DXY seems peaked. Geopoliticial risk : Ukraine ending and Europe protection ending. Tariffs on Gold?
- Yen : Inflation is 4%, Yen should continue to appreciate, bad for liquidity.

BTC
- Coinbase TWAP was switched on through Sunday, but the price continues to fall
- BTC very linked to macro flows rn, so feels risk off for the week.
- A Saylor announcement of him buying 2b worth, will only drop prices further
- The key is to watch for bids on this drop.

Positioning : Neutral/Short
- Long BTC
- Short SUI XRP WIF
- Long Alt : Small TAO and AI16Z

23.02.202522:20

22.02.202501:39

Positioning : Long for the weekend
Long BTC
Short ETH + Twapping more

Small longs on TAO, AI16Z and POPCAT???

से पुनः पोस्ट किया:

Wu Blockchain News

21.02.202517:37

Bybit CEO BEO said that Bybit will not buy ETH immediately, but will rely on partners to provide bridge loans. Bybit will ensure that all users can withdraw, but because the traffic is 100x the usual, it will take some time to process, and some risk confirmation is required for large withdrawals. — link

21.02.202517:35

Positioning : Neutral
Long BTC
Short ETH and XRP

Small dip buys
SOL TAO AI16Z
POPCAT BONK

21.02.202502:45

2025-02-21 Daily Vol

The week is coming to an end.

Good performance on my perp acct this week; 2.5x on a small acct
Biggest winners were Short SOL initially and Long BTC & BERA

Now generally neutral/short and lowering leverage going into the us opex and the weekend.

- Main Long : BTC
- Small longs on TAO and AI16Z
- Main Short : ETH
- Smaller Shorts : SOL XRP WIF TRUMP

BTC at Local High?
- There was a pretty good sized twap from Coinbase overnight.
- A $2B bid from Saylor will usually move the price around 4%
- News was announced at 94k, so a 4% move is about 97.8k
- We also had 1b stimmy check from FTX, so that could also push the price up a bit further.
- All in all the current price around 98.2k seems like a fair price.

- Technically it’s been rejected here plenty of times, indicating supply overhang.

- But it does feel a bit like a consensus trade already. Most perp traders have caught onto this. We’re already seeing the funding rate fall since hitting 98.5k.
- So there might be one more squeeze after clearing OPEX today, but generally think its a good place to TP and go neutral and/or start building shorts.

- Alts also seem to be losing steam, so long BTC and short alts seem

Alt Szn?
- Not convinced it’s here yet.
- Think we need more time.

21.02.202502:45

20.02.202507:41

Partial TP’d some BTC longs here
Added some shorts
Positioning neutral

20.02.202501:31

2025-02-20 Daily Vol

Market seems to be getting more confident that we found a bottom.

1000x Avi thinking short BTC long Alts
- Bullish TAO.
- Bullish SOL.
- LTC priced in?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWLhEYwqqcc&ab_channel=1000xPodcast

Main Long : Staying in BTC
- BTC long term skews got more bulish. Perhaps on Trump mentioning the word Bitcoin multiple times with the stock market helped.
- Perp positioning is still short on BTC.
For short-term alt longs, BERA XRP TAO AI16Z
- TAO : Catching the early rush into ecosystems has historically been a good play
- AI16Z : AI reversal

Shorts : None
- Quite dangerous portfolio wise.
- Short LTC could be a good leg.
- Will be monitoring closely into OPEX
- If we clear Friday US time, will be looking for shorts more aggressively as we take out 99k

MSTR raising more notes seems to be putting on cap on upside for now.
Not taking this trade but, short MSTR long BTC might be a good pair(the Shkreli trade)

The FOMC minutes talking about ending QT also feels like a good excuse for SPX to pop up

सभी पोस्ट

कुछ नहीं मिला 😢

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रिकॉर्ड

26.02.202523:59

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23.10.202423:59

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16.02.202523:59

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26.02.202500:16

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08.02.202505:34

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