TheNebulator
30.04.202509:57
Armchair Warlord has a very interesting take on Russia's restraint, that I have not considered before: They are denying the Ukrainians their victimhood:
By being surgical, rather than blunt, the Russians are "playing an extremely long game here and setting conditions to build the postwar world they want to see - one which involves a lasting peace with Ukraine and a reconstruction of deep cultural ties," says Warlord.
This certainly explains the way this is being fought. As a Serb who has barely survived the post-WW2 social experiment called "brotherhood and unity", I have deep misgivings about the possibility of brotherly coexistence with an ethnos literally defining itself as anti-you and determined to kill you. But if anyone can pull this off it's the Russians, and the alternative is downright grimdark.
in fighting a clean war, even when many people in the Russian commentariat have howled for blood and not without reason, the Russians are doing something far deeper, and far smarter, than just giving their "fraternal nation" a few dozen extra chances to shape up out of Sovok-boomer sentimentality. They are, in fact, sawing away at one of the core pillars of the constructed identity of Maidan-era Ukraine.
By being surgical, rather than blunt, the Russians are "playing an extremely long game here and setting conditions to build the postwar world they want to see - one which involves a lasting peace with Ukraine and a reconstruction of deep cultural ties," says Warlord.
This certainly explains the way this is being fought. As a Serb who has barely survived the post-WW2 social experiment called "brotherhood and unity", I have deep misgivings about the possibility of brotherly coexistence with an ethnos literally defining itself as anti-you and determined to kill you. But if anyone can pull this off it's the Russians, and the alternative is downright grimdark.
Reposted from:
Donald J. Trump
23.04.202518:08
Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, is boasting on the front page of The Wall Street Journal that, “Ukraine will not legally recognize the occupation of Crimea. There’s nothing to talk about here.” This statement is very harmful to the Peace Negotiations with Russia in that Crimea was lost years ago under the auspices of President Barack Hussein Obama, and is not even a point of discussion. Nobody is asking Zelenskyy to recognize Crimea as Russian Territory but, if he wants Crimea, why didn’t they fight for it eleven years ago when it was handed over to Russia without a shot being fired? The area also houses, for many years before “the Obama handover,” major Russian submarine bases. It’s inflammatory statements like Zelenskyy’s that makes it so difficult to settle this War. He has nothing to boast about! The situation for Ukraine is dire — He can have Peace or, he can fight for another three years before losing the whole Country. I have nothing to do with Russia, but have much to do with wanting to save, on average, five thousand Russian and Ukrainian soldiers a week, who are dying for no reason whatsoever. The statement made by Zelenskyy today will do nothing but prolong the “killing field,” and nobody wants that! We are very close to a Deal, but the man with “no cards to play” should now, finally, GET IT DONE. I look forward to being able to help Ukraine, and Russia, get out of this Complete and Total MESS, that would have never started if I were President!
22.04.202518:44
Russia's supposed offer to settle for US recognition of Crimea and freezing the current frontlines — as claimed by Financial Times — is most likely wishful thinking on part of anonymous sources.
I can't rule out the possibility of Moscow snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (many such cases!) but this goes so much against everything I've heard and seen since December 2021 that it just seems highly unlikely.
I can't rule out the possibility of Moscow snatching defeat from the jaws of victory (many such cases!) but this goes so much against everything I've heard and seen since December 2021 that it just seems highly unlikely.
Reposted from:
Russians With Attitude
11.04.202519:42
While Witkoff meets with Putin in St. Petersburg, Estonia has seized a tanker en route to Russia. Yesterday, they banned the canonical Orthodox Church, and two days ago, they approved a law allowing the "Estonian Navy" to sink Russian ships.
Estonia's suicidal behavior cannot be explained by self-interest; it appears to be a timed provocation by proxy. Its leadership seems to genuinely believe that Putin's patience is limitless and that this will continue indefinitely. However, times are changing rapidly.
The only thing that could save Estonia and its six-ship navy from getting vaporized is for Russia and the US to reach some kind of agreement. To be honest, the odds do not seem to favor Estonia's survival.
Estonia's suicidal behavior cannot be explained by self-interest; it appears to be a timed provocation by proxy. Its leadership seems to genuinely believe that Putin's patience is limitless and that this will continue indefinitely. However, times are changing rapidly.
The only thing that could save Estonia and its six-ship navy from getting vaporized is for Russia and the US to reach some kind of agreement. To be honest, the odds do not seem to favor Estonia's survival.
04.04.202515:46
Will Russia get seduced by the sweet nothings whispered by the Americans into Kirill Dmitriev's ear? Putin's special envoy and head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund is getting quite a VIP tour of the US: touring the Capitol, meeting with influential figures in Washington, even getting an interview with the surprisingly non-hostile CNN. And all after that NYT article <strike>revealing</strike> admitting that the US has always been part of the "kill chain" in Ukraine.
What gives?
It all depends on that the Kremlin's answer is to "why we fight?" Was the SMO launched because the West rejected Moscow's security proposal, thereby triggering a global realignment and the necessity of creating a multipolar world (which is obviously not quite done yet)? Or was it to protect the Donbass republics from a Western client, and the decades of Western perfidy, sanctions and proxy warfare can be waved away with a "trade deal" so that the Russians can once again have Starbucks, McDonald's and Western cheese?
Based on public statements alone, Putin believes the former, Trump the latter. They are seemingly irreconcilable. And yet there's Dmitriev in Washington, which seems to point to Trump being more correct.
Once certain things are set in motion, they have to be seen through to their logical conclusion; if the goal is just, stopping short of it would be a betrayal of one's principles, values, and sacrifices made for them. But hey, that cheese...
What gives?
It all depends on that the Kremlin's answer is to "why we fight?" Was the SMO launched because the West rejected Moscow's security proposal, thereby triggering a global realignment and the necessity of creating a multipolar world (which is obviously not quite done yet)? Or was it to protect the Donbass republics from a Western client, and the decades of Western perfidy, sanctions and proxy warfare can be waved away with a "trade deal" so that the Russians can once again have Starbucks, McDonald's and Western cheese?
Based on public statements alone, Putin believes the former, Trump the latter. They are seemingly irreconcilable. And yet there's Dmitriev in Washington, which seems to point to Trump being more correct.
Once certain things are set in motion, they have to be seen through to their logical conclusion; if the goal is just, stopping short of it would be a betrayal of one's principles, values, and sacrifices made for them. But hey, that cheese...
31.03.202508:49
A New York Times "investigation" claims that "America was woven into the [Russia-Ukraine] war far more intimately and broadly than previously understood":
"At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations...American and Ukrainian officers planned [Kiev's] counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.
One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.
Obviously, I urge you to read it all, while filtering out propaganda and narrative management.
To us who've followed this conflict from the start, none of this is really new. This is one of those post-hoc admissions the NYT specializes in. Remember the "by the way the CIA totally runs the SBU, but we totally didn't kill Darya Dugina"?
What I'd like to know is, why admit this now? And the obvious answer is, to render any negotiated settlement impossible. The way the NYT reasons, most likely, Trump can't possibly abandon the war now, and even if he tries the Russians won't trust him enough to make any deals.
They're so obsessed with sticking it to the Bad Orange Man, they haven't realized that revealing the true extent of US involvement in the war doesn't help the GAE — and they've bought into their own propaganda so much, they don't realize that Russia is winning, and that therefore they will now own the defeat. I delight in the irony.
"At critical moments, the partnership was the backbone of Ukrainian military operations...American and Ukrainian officers planned [Kiev's] counteroffensives. A vast American intelligence-collection effort both guided big-picture battle strategy and funneled precise targeting information down to Ukrainian soldiers in the field.
One European intelligence chief recalled being taken aback to learn how deeply enmeshed his N.A.T.O. counterparts had become in Ukrainian operations. “They are part of the kill chain now,” he said.
Obviously, I urge you to read it all, while filtering out propaganda and narrative management.
To us who've followed this conflict from the start, none of this is really new. This is one of those post-hoc admissions the NYT specializes in. Remember the "by the way the CIA totally runs the SBU, but we totally didn't kill Darya Dugina"?
What I'd like to know is, why admit this now? And the obvious answer is, to render any negotiated settlement impossible. The way the NYT reasons, most likely, Trump can't possibly abandon the war now, and even if he tries the Russians won't trust him enough to make any deals.
They're so obsessed with sticking it to the Bad Orange Man, they haven't realized that revealing the true extent of US involvement in the war doesn't help the GAE — and they've bought into their own propaganda so much, they don't realize that Russia is winning, and that therefore they will now own the defeat. I delight in the irony.
26.04.202515:24
Kursk has been completely liberated. Ukraine’s invasion is no more. 80,000 casualties later, Zelensky has nothing to show for it. Not to mention the irreplaceable Western tech.
If that was Kiev’s version of the “battle of the Bulge,” we’re likely to see a replay of the bunker meme scene in a couple months or so.
Of course, there is still the possibility of ending this peacefully. But Trump’s proposal is nonsense and Zelensky is unwilling to entertain it anyway. So the fighting will continue until someone wins.
If that was Kiev’s version of the “battle of the Bulge,” we’re likely to see a replay of the bunker meme scene in a couple months or so.
Of course, there is still the possibility of ending this peacefully. But Trump’s proposal is nonsense and Zelensky is unwilling to entertain it anyway. So the fighting will continue until someone wins.
23.04.202510:50
Politico paints a fascinating picture of Europe that is entirely dependent on America (or the GAE?) in military matters. However self-serving, the story admits an uncomfortable truth: not only is the entire military infrastructure of the continent (well, its Western half) built around the assumption of American hegemony and US "cavalry" riding to the rescue, the Euros lack even the most basic military capabilities should the Americans actually withdraw.
No tank trailers, fuel tankers, heavy transport planes, even ramps for rail loading of flatbed cars for heavies. No intel, or cyber capabilities. Nothing. The Euros are basically hangers-on at best, dead weight at worst, fit only to man the "defense" line until the Americans arrive.
Set aside the fevered dream of a "Russian invasion" (the April 1 joke in which "Putin" tells the Germans they aren't worth the expense of occupation comes to mind). This is an admission that the supposedly wealthy mega-state with something like 400 million people is militarily useless.
I believe this is by design, that the US has for decades nurtured a learned helplessness and path dependency in order to maintain hegemony, but isn't even capable of articulating as to why anymore. Nor are the EUrocrats able to conceive of an actual independent military posture, let alone achieve it with their existing industrial base and economic posture. Given time and ingenuity, perhaps — but both of those are in short supply at the moment.
Keep this in mind if and when the US "walks away" from the GAE.
No tank trailers, fuel tankers, heavy transport planes, even ramps for rail loading of flatbed cars for heavies. No intel, or cyber capabilities. Nothing. The Euros are basically hangers-on at best, dead weight at worst, fit only to man the "defense" line until the Americans arrive.
Set aside the fevered dream of a "Russian invasion" (the April 1 joke in which "Putin" tells the Germans they aren't worth the expense of occupation comes to mind). This is an admission that the supposedly wealthy mega-state with something like 400 million people is militarily useless.
I believe this is by design, that the US has for decades nurtured a learned helplessness and path dependency in order to maintain hegemony, but isn't even capable of articulating as to why anymore. Nor are the EUrocrats able to conceive of an actual independent military posture, let alone achieve it with their existing industrial base and economic posture. Given time and ingenuity, perhaps — but both of those are in short supply at the moment.
Keep this in mind if and when the US "walks away" from the GAE.
22.04.202515:30
Marco Rubio has just announced a truly massive purge at the State Department, getting rid of 132 "fiefs" run by woke Deep State types for their own profit and political gain as opposed to US interests. Or rather, the people involved thought THEY dictated US interests and policy, as opposed to the elected government.
My favorite cut in the process of draining the "bloated, bureaucratic swamp" has to be the Office of Global Criminal Justice, founded by Bill Clinton in 1997 to be a sinecure for the lawfare agents who set up the atrocity known as the ICTY (the Yugoslavia "war crimes" tribunal), a kangaroo court intended to demonize the Serbs and create a pretext for the Globalist American Empire to intervene anytime, anywhere, against anyone for "human rights."
Getting rid of them isn't exactly restitution for decades of evil perpetrated by these people, but at least going forward it will stop. Truly an Easter miracle.
My favorite cut in the process of draining the "bloated, bureaucratic swamp" has to be the Office of Global Criminal Justice, founded by Bill Clinton in 1997 to be a sinecure for the lawfare agents who set up the atrocity known as the ICTY (the Yugoslavia "war crimes" tribunal), a kangaroo court intended to demonize the Serbs and create a pretext for the Globalist American Empire to intervene anytime, anywhere, against anyone for "human rights."
Getting rid of them isn't exactly restitution for decades of evil perpetrated by these people, but at least going forward it will stop. Truly an Easter miracle.
10.04.202518:47
Trump "changing his mind" about the tariffs for 90 days (except for China!) makes no difference here. I'm already reading cope takes that he either "caved" (mainly from Democrats and multipolar bros) or flawlessly executed some master plan (a preference of Republicans for whom he can do no wrong).
Everyone thinks they know everything and bases conclusions solely on public statements (or bad interpretations thereof), while no one seems to have the patience to assess the impact of actions. Precisely what I was talking about in the previous post: Marketing over matter, and analysis thereof.
Everyone thinks they know everything and bases conclusions solely on public statements (or bad interpretations thereof), while no one seems to have the patience to assess the impact of actions. Precisely what I was talking about in the previous post: Marketing over matter, and analysis thereof.
02.04.202521:15
Trump's tariffs are intended to stimulate US domestic manufacturing, which has withered since the advent of globalization, and give him leverage in trade talks with the rest of the world. If they raise any revenue, it will be a bonus.
I'm honestly not sure if he will succeed. Perhaps the US is too far gone, devoured by bankers and financial speculation. Perhaps tomorrow some random federal judge will say "you can't do that". But he has to try.
Implications for the rest of the world? Whoever wants to keep trading with America will need to adjust. This may push some countries into looking for markets elsewhere. But it's hard to overcome decades of conditioning.
Trump is waving an awful lot of the stick and very little of the carrot. But when people behave like donkeys, can't blame him for using the tools and tactics that work.
I'm honestly not sure if he will succeed. Perhaps the US is too far gone, devoured by bankers and financial speculation. Perhaps tomorrow some random federal judge will say "you can't do that". But he has to try.
Implications for the rest of the world? Whoever wants to keep trading with America will need to adjust. This may push some countries into looking for markets elsewhere. But it's hard to overcome decades of conditioning.
Trump is waving an awful lot of the stick and very little of the carrot. But when people behave like donkeys, can't blame him for using the tools and tactics that work.
28.03.202517:28
Putin has proposed some kind of international protectorate for Ukraine until they can have elections and get a legitimate government that would be able to sign a peace deal. If this is a genuine proposal, it makes a ton of sense: Zelensky's mandate expired in 2019, and there is literally nothing in the Ukrainian constitution that allows him to extend it.
The West and the UN immediately rejected the idea, however, arguing that Ukraine is a sovereign and independent country that can decide for itself.
One problem: This is literally not true. The salaries of Ukrainian government officials (and even pensions for its civilians) are currently paid by Western taxpayers. The GAE is the only thing keeping that failed state on life support. So it's technically already a protectorate.
Secondly, if countries being internationally recognized as independent and sovereign and members of the UN is the criteria here, why in the name of everything unholy is there still a "high representative" (of whom, exactly?) in Bosnia-Herzegovina, with a random German national currently being paid princely sums to LARP as an unaccountable autocrat?
If this arrangement is good enough fo Bosnia, 30 years (!) after its civil war ended, then why not for Ukraine? Because the West says so? That's not how it works anymore.
The West and the UN immediately rejected the idea, however, arguing that Ukraine is a sovereign and independent country that can decide for itself.
One problem: This is literally not true. The salaries of Ukrainian government officials (and even pensions for its civilians) are currently paid by Western taxpayers. The GAE is the only thing keeping that failed state on life support. So it's technically already a protectorate.
Secondly, if countries being internationally recognized as independent and sovereign and members of the UN is the criteria here, why in the name of everything unholy is there still a "high representative" (of whom, exactly?) in Bosnia-Herzegovina, with a random German national currently being paid princely sums to LARP as an unaccountable autocrat?
If this arrangement is good enough fo Bosnia, 30 years (!) after its civil war ended, then why not for Ukraine? Because the West says so? That's not how it works anymore.
24.04.202518:07
Pay less attention to what Trump says and more to what he does (or doesn't do). Yes, I know, the previous post was about his words, but still. He's trying all the rhetorical negotiating tricks of Team Narrative against Russia, the ultimate Team Reality player (often at its own peril). There is a non-zero chance it might work, but it's very slim.
That which cannot go on, will not. And Project Ukraine has just about outlived its usefulness. I don't know precisely how Trump will shape the narrative that will enable him to throw Zelensky in the trash; all I know is that it will happen sooner or later, and that he sure seems like he's trying right now.
That which cannot go on, will not. And Project Ukraine has just about outlived its usefulness. I don't know precisely how Trump will shape the narrative that will enable him to throw Zelensky in the trash; all I know is that it will happen sooner or later, and that he sure seems like he's trying right now.
23.04.202509:39
If this is the same proposal that's making rounds in Western outlets (Telegraph, Axios), then walking away it is, because it's absolute and utter rubbish. It doesn't satisfy ANY of Russia's key objectives.
15.04.202515:39
EU's threat to "Western Balkans" (i.e. shards of Yugoslavia) aspirants not to dare go to Moscow for the Victory Day parade might have seemed like a flex to the Balts and other chihuahuas at first, but it's merely cementing the perception (based on reality) that Russia is fighting against a modern-day iteration of the Third Reich.
What was that Admiral Nelson used to say about interrupting your enemy when he's making a mistake?
What was that Admiral Nelson used to say about interrupting your enemy when he's making a mistake?
09.04.202519:36
Trump's tariffs have triggered a lot of people, it seems. There's a legion of commentators, some of whom I greatly respect, who are practically fulminating about how the US is doomed, incapable of actually reindustrializing, and how this will ruin the GAE and the dollar and ensure a century of Chinese ascendance.
Um, isn't that what you want? What's the problem, then?
Unless you fear that Trump is both crazy like a fox and has the devil's own luck, so he might just pull this off, and the whole paradigm of inevitable GAE decline and fall is going to crumble on the brink of fulfillment?
My big problem with quantitative analysis is that it doesn't account for the moral/spiritual/psychological factors, because they're not really quantifiable. If someone is determined enough, or even too stupid to realize something "can't be done", they just go ahead and try to do it, and maybe even succeed through sheer grit. You simply have to make a distinction between "impossible" and "highly unlikely."
The GAE suffers from the opposite problem, mind you: everything there is mind over matter, an issue of messaging and marketing, wish hard enough and it will manifest. That kind of approach ignores objective reality altogether, so little wonder it fails so often (*cough* Bidenomics/Green New Deal/etc *cough*).
All this is to say that I don't know what's actually going to happen, because I don't have the numbers yet OR the sufficient feel for the collective sentiment. All I'm saying is that the former actually depend on the latter, a lot, and we ignore that at our peril.
Um, isn't that what you want? What's the problem, then?
Unless you fear that Trump is both crazy like a fox and has the devil's own luck, so he might just pull this off, and the whole paradigm of inevitable GAE decline and fall is going to crumble on the brink of fulfillment?
My big problem with quantitative analysis is that it doesn't account for the moral/spiritual/psychological factors, because they're not really quantifiable. If someone is determined enough, or even too stupid to realize something "can't be done", they just go ahead and try to do it, and maybe even succeed through sheer grit. You simply have to make a distinction between "impossible" and "highly unlikely."
The GAE suffers from the opposite problem, mind you: everything there is mind over matter, an issue of messaging and marketing, wish hard enough and it will manifest. That kind of approach ignores objective reality altogether, so little wonder it fails so often (*cough* Bidenomics/Green New Deal/etc *cough*).
All this is to say that I don't know what's actually going to happen, because I don't have the numbers yet OR the sufficient feel for the collective sentiment. All I'm saying is that the former actually depend on the latter, a lot, and we ignore that at our peril.
01.04.202518:41
As promised, I put up my analysis of the NYT "we totally ran Ukraine's war, but only the successful bits" piece on Substack, and you can read it there.
Please consider supporting my work at BuyMeACoffee, if you appreciate these takes!
Please consider supporting my work at BuyMeACoffee, if you appreciate these takes!
27.03.202519:52
Serbia air defenses shot down an American F-117A Nighthawk on this day in 1999, the first and only time the stealth fighter was lost in combat.
Have a Ghliblified illustration of Serbian villagers dancing on the wreckage.
Have a Ghliblified illustration of Serbian villagers dancing on the wreckage.
23.04.202518:08
I think Trump just threw Zelya under the bus.
Reposted from:
DD Geopolitics
23.04.202509:38
🇺🇸💬🇷🇺🇺🇦 Vance claims they have issued a "very fair proposal" to Russia and Ukraine, and they need to either agree to it, or the US will walk away
🔴 @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising
🔴 @DDGeopolitics | Socials | Donate | Advertising
11.04.202519:46
Trouble is, Putin's restraint so far has absolutely encouraged this behavior — and not just by Estonians, either. Appropriately calibrated violence is a form of communication. If not used in a timely manner, it will require far more violence to get the point across later. Which explains the SMO.
08.04.202517:08
Zelya must think he's very clever, putting China into a Kafkian trap like this.
Except Beijing might just decide that if the West is going to crucify China for "backing Russia" it may as well do so overtly... and off to the races we go.
Except Beijing might just decide that if the West is going to crucify China for "backing Russia" it may as well do so overtly... and off to the races we go.
31.03.202518:37
France effectively banning Marine LePen from running in 2027 is proof that the West does not actually believe in "democracy," whatever it claims.
As Ian Fleming wrote: Once is accident, twice is happenstance, three times is enemy action. Calin Georgiescu in Romania was the first instance. Milorad Dodik in Republika Srpska was the second. Le Pen makes three.
Legitimacy takes a long time to build and mere moments to lose. Those who have the naked force don't feel the need to dress it, but the EU lacks the swords necessary to get away with what can only be termed political exhibitionism.
As Ian Fleming wrote: Once is accident, twice is happenstance, three times is enemy action. Calin Georgiescu in Romania was the first instance. Milorad Dodik in Republika Srpska was the second. Le Pen makes three.
Legitimacy takes a long time to build and mere moments to lose. Those who have the naked force don't feel the need to dress it, but the EU lacks the swords necessary to get away with what can only be termed political exhibitionism.
26.03.202517:34
The "Black Sea ceasefire" or whatever the White House called it is vaporware, intended to create the impression of progress in the peace talks. Kiev claims it is already in effect and is whining that it doesn't apply to Russian missile strikes on ports. Moscow says it might go into effect if the US lifts sanctions on the Russian agricultural export bank. Meaning, it's not in effect.
So what's going on? Simple. Washington needs a quick win, so it's trying for perception management because that's easier than actually doing something. Trump has too much trouble on his hands at home (renegade judges, the ludicrous "Signal-gate", etc) to actually move ahead with dismantling the GAE, even though he really should.
Russia seems to be humoring him but continuing the military operations. The risk here, obviously, is that Moscow might not want to do anything drastic, so as not to upset the "peace process". Meanwhile, Kiev is launching all the drones and missiles it has, in a campaign of terror intended to bolster morale at home. Ukrainian drones are also targeting journalists at the frontline. A couple Oreshniks might put an end to this, but... see above. Niceness kills.
So what's going on? Simple. Washington needs a quick win, so it's trying for perception management because that's easier than actually doing something. Trump has too much trouble on his hands at home (renegade judges, the ludicrous "Signal-gate", etc) to actually move ahead with dismantling the GAE, even though he really should.
Russia seems to be humoring him but continuing the military operations. The risk here, obviously, is that Moscow might not want to do anything drastic, so as not to upset the "peace process". Meanwhile, Kiev is launching all the drones and missiles it has, in a campaign of terror intended to bolster morale at home. Ukrainian drones are also targeting journalists at the frontline. A couple Oreshniks might put an end to this, but... see above. Niceness kills.
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