Al-Ra'i—The Observer
01.05.202520:31
🇮🇷⫽🇺🇸 The old game continues—
The U.S. has DELAYED nuclear talks with Iran—again. Trump’s people caved under ISRAELI pressure, again. He posted, as he does, shouting through his fingers: “ANY COUNTRY who buys ANY AMOUNT of oil from Iran will be sanctioned. NO BUSINESS with the United States.” That kind of language isn’t diplomacy.
This isn't a slip. It’s CONTINUITY.
It began in 1953 when Iran's elected Prime Minister Mossadegh tried to nationalize oil. They toppled him. They’ve never let go since. In the 80s, the U.S. and Israel backed Saddam to BLEED Iran. Then came the viruses, the scientists quietly killed, the SABOTAGE hidden in diplomacy’s shadow. Every time Iran inches forward, Israel reaches in, the U.S. pulls the brake.
Now:
— BANDAR ABBAS explodes.
— ISRAEL BURNS.
— Today a mossad man hangs in Iran.
Israel’s fear is not Iran’s BOMB, but Iran’s INDEPENDENCE. They want the region arranged around their own QUIET WEAPONS, never declared but always guarded. Netanyahu said it himself—STOP IRAN by any means. That’s why talks don’t move forward. Not because they fail, but because they’re NOT MEANT TO.
Trump plays his part, craving a legacy, pushed by Israel’s LOBBY. His sanctions, like 2019’s, starve Iran’s PEOPLE, not its leaders. Iran remembers—1953’s COUP, 1988’s airliner SHOT DOWN by a U.S. ship, 2020’s martyr SOLEIMANI strike. They're answer softly: 2019’s SAUDI OIL DRONES, 2020’s U.S. BASE ATTACKS, 2021’s TEL AVIV CYBER HIT, APRIL/OCT 24'.
How many times must this play out before we call it what it is—CONTROL?
The U.S. has DELAYED nuclear talks with Iran—again. Trump’s people caved under ISRAELI pressure, again. He posted, as he does, shouting through his fingers: “ANY COUNTRY who buys ANY AMOUNT of oil from Iran will be sanctioned. NO BUSINESS with the United States.” That kind of language isn’t diplomacy.
This isn't a slip. It’s CONTINUITY.
It began in 1953 when Iran's elected Prime Minister Mossadegh tried to nationalize oil. They toppled him. They’ve never let go since. In the 80s, the U.S. and Israel backed Saddam to BLEED Iran. Then came the viruses, the scientists quietly killed, the SABOTAGE hidden in diplomacy’s shadow. Every time Iran inches forward, Israel reaches in, the U.S. pulls the brake.
Now:
— BANDAR ABBAS explodes.
— ISRAEL BURNS.
— Today a mossad man hangs in Iran.
Israel’s fear is not Iran’s BOMB, but Iran’s INDEPENDENCE. They want the region arranged around their own QUIET WEAPONS, never declared but always guarded. Netanyahu said it himself—STOP IRAN by any means. That’s why talks don’t move forward. Not because they fail, but because they’re NOT MEANT TO.
Trump plays his part, craving a legacy, pushed by Israel’s LOBBY. His sanctions, like 2019’s, starve Iran’s PEOPLE, not its leaders. Iran remembers—1953’s COUP, 1988’s airliner SHOT DOWN by a U.S. ship, 2020’s martyr SOLEIMANI strike. They're answer softly: 2019’s SAUDI OIL DRONES, 2020’s U.S. BASE ATTACKS, 2021’s TEL AVIV CYBER HIT, APRIL/OCT 24'.
How many times must this play out before we call it what it is—CONTROL?
26.04.202515:47
🇮🇷⫽💥 FOLLOWING UP—
Today, Shahid Rajaee Port shook.
The blast came just past noon.
It broke windows across the city, even on Qeshm Island.
You don't hear such force often — not from simple accidents.
They say chemicals. Bad storage.
Maybe.
Ports are careless places sometimes.
But not careless enough for a blast like this.
Five hundred injured, more in shock.
Some dead. "Hospitals full. The people, as always, answered the call for blood."
Pain pulls Iranians together — it always has.
Officials moved fast.
Promised inquiries.
Asked for calm.
But the timing.
The place.
The size.
"They ask questions."
Talks are happening in Oman.
Enemies watching from every corner.
Israel, America, others — they never tire.
If there was a hand behind this, it would not be the first time.
Ports, pipelines, power grids — all have been hit before.
Sometimes openly.
Sometimes without a name.
If it was sabotage, the message is sharp: "Strike where it cuts deepest, but make it look like clumsiness."
If it was own fault, then the failure runs deeper still.
Guardians asleep at the gate.
Either way, the loss will stretch.
Trade slows. Shelves empty. Families pay.
The port is a vein.
"When it is cut, the whole body feels it — not in hours, but in weeks and months."
Tonight, I do not trust the first words spoken.
Truth takes longer to surface.
An enemy works with patience.
And sometimes, so does neglect.
We must watch.
We must remember.
Today, Shahid Rajaee Port shook.
The blast came just past noon.
It broke windows across the city, even on Qeshm Island.
You don't hear such force often — not from simple accidents.
They say chemicals. Bad storage.
Maybe.
Ports are careless places sometimes.
But not careless enough for a blast like this.
Five hundred injured, more in shock.
Some dead. "Hospitals full. The people, as always, answered the call for blood."
Pain pulls Iranians together — it always has.
Officials moved fast.
Promised inquiries.
Asked for calm.
But the timing.
The place.
The size.
"They ask questions."
Talks are happening in Oman.
Enemies watching from every corner.
Israel, America, others — they never tire.
If there was a hand behind this, it would not be the first time.
Ports, pipelines, power grids — all have been hit before.
Sometimes openly.
Sometimes without a name.
If it was sabotage, the message is sharp: "Strike where it cuts deepest, but make it look like clumsiness."
If it was own fault, then the failure runs deeper still.
Guardians asleep at the gate.
Either way, the loss will stretch.
Trade slows. Shelves empty. Families pay.
The port is a vein.
"When it is cut, the whole body feels it — not in hours, but in weeks and months."
Tonight, I do not trust the first words spoken.
Truth takes longer to surface.
An enemy works with patience.
And sometimes, so does neglect.
We must watch.
We must remember.
22.04.202515:38
🇺🇸⫽🇮🇷 Treasury moves again—
Sanctions placed on Iran’s LPG network.
Behnam Shahriyari — Quds Force hand — routed shipments through Hong Kong fronts like "Greenline Global".
Others — "Lantana Shipping", "Banias International" — masked the trails with false transfers.
THE CLAIM: funds reaching IRGC-QF and Hezbollah.
I sit with it.
Sanctions are not a blade; they are erosion.
Each company cut away — a little less reach, a little more cost.
But the core adapts. The hunger beyond Iran — China’s — does not break under these measures.
I NOTE IT:
Pressure sharpens men. It teaches systems to lie better.
Every move forward builds its own counterweight.
Treasury knows this. They act anyway.
Sanctions placed on Iran’s LPG network.
Behnam Shahriyari — Quds Force hand — routed shipments through Hong Kong fronts like "Greenline Global".
Others — "Lantana Shipping", "Banias International" — masked the trails with false transfers.
THE CLAIM: funds reaching IRGC-QF and Hezbollah.
I sit with it.
Sanctions are not a blade; they are erosion.
Each company cut away — a little less reach, a little more cost.
But the core adapts. The hunger beyond Iran — China’s — does not break under these measures.
I NOTE IT:
Pressure sharpens men. It teaches systems to lie better.
Every move forward builds its own counterweight.
Treasury knows this. They act anyway.
17.04.202516:03
I wonder too. States make peace when it suits their interests, not to right past wrongs. For Riyadh, reconciliation with Tehran may serve new priorities.
But the destruction left in Yemen will not be undone by a handshake. Those costs remain — whether they are spoken of or not.
But the destruction left in Yemen will not be undone by a handshake. Those costs remain — whether they are spoken of or not.
15.04.202514:30
🇮🇷⫽📝 CASE STUDY—
A leader shouldn’t have to repeat himself. So when Khamenei stands there, calm, steady, and says “our red lines are clear”—I don’t hear instruction. I hear repair.
Not for Washington. This isn’t about them. It’s about the walls inside Tehran.
“Orders turn into suggestions, then into delays, and eventually into something unrecognizable.”
And he sees it. That’s what this is. A warning, yes—but not outwards. Inwards. “Don’t invest too much in talks,” he says.
There’s a kind of wisdom here. A government—even one built top-down—is never really a command. “It’s a conversation pretending to be a monologue.”
Lesson? Maybe this:
It’s not about ruling—it’s about keeping the center from dissolving.
And some days, that’s enough.
A leader shouldn’t have to repeat himself. So when Khamenei stands there, calm, steady, and says “our red lines are clear”—I don’t hear instruction. I hear repair.
Not for Washington. This isn’t about them. It’s about the walls inside Tehran.
- In meetings that start five minutes late.
- In vague replies.
- In obedient nods followed by quiet revisions.
“Orders turn into suggestions, then into delays, and eventually into something unrecognizable.”
And he sees it. That’s what this is. A warning, yes—but not outwards. Inwards. “Don’t invest too much in talks,” he says.
- Not because diplomacy is weakness, but because bureaucracy is.
- Because institutions drift.
- Because even in a system built on ideology, self-preservation is the strongest instinct.
There’s a kind of wisdom here. A government—even one built top-down—is never really a command. “It’s a conversation pretending to be a monologue.”
When he says “self-reliance” but still engages, it’s not contradiction—it’s governance. It’s how control survives.
Lesson? Maybe this:
“Absolute power doesn’t exist. Not really. What looks like command from the outside is just containment from within.”
It’s not about ruling—it’s about keeping the center from dissolving.
And some days, that’s enough.
12.04.202514:12
🇺🇸\🇮🇷 Muscat, Oman—Indirect negotiations between the United States and Iran have begun in Oman, mediated by Omani officials.
The discussions center only on Iran’s nuclear program, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has made clear.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has forbidden any talk of the country’s missile program or its ties to regional groups, viewing these as matters of sovereignty.
The U.S., according to sources, may consider concessions to reach an agreement, hoping to limit Iran’s nuclear activities.
Oman's hosting, but no real appetite for compromise. Iran won’t bend on missiles, US won’t lift sanctions. Just shadowboxing until someone blinks.
The discussions center only on Iran’s nuclear program, as Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has made clear.
Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has forbidden any talk of the country’s missile program or its ties to regional groups, viewing these as matters of sovereignty.
The U.S., according to sources, may consider concessions to reach an agreement, hoping to limit Iran’s nuclear activities.
Yet Iran remains guarded, remembering the U.S. abandonment of the 2015 nuclear deal, which led to harsh sanctions and pushed Iran to advance its uranium enrichment, now close to weapons-gradeYears of U.S. policies, including economic pressure and regional interventions, deepen Iran’s doubts about fair negotiations.
“We won’t allow negotiations on what we consider our red lines,” said a senior Iranian official, hinting at Iran’s firm stance on missile capabilities and regional alliances.Iranian reports note a hint of progress in early exchanges, but Tehran demands sanctions relief and respect as equals, wary of repeating past disappointments.
Oman's hosting, but no real appetite for compromise. Iran won’t bend on missiles, US won’t lift sanctions. Just shadowboxing until someone blinks.
29.04.202522:47
🇮🇳⫽🇵🇰 INDIA and PAKISTAN play their tired game, sitting close to the dirt of both nations.
So let’s call their strategy “provocative deterrence”—a fancy term for poking your enemy until they snap or cower, all while crying foul.
On the Pakistani side—in Lahore or Rawalpindi—the MOOD is TENSE but FAMILIAR. People huddle at tea stalls, muttering about India’s “arrogance.” From TARAR to ASIF, leaders flood the airwaves with warnings of Indian strikes, and the street buys it. Not because it’s always true—maybe it is, maybe it isn’t—but because it’s comforting.
It’s in-group bias at work. Pakistan’s military needs the India threat to stay relevant, distract from empty wallets and a crumbling government. I’ve read shopkeepers in Peshawar swear “India staged Pahalgam to crush Pakistan’s economy.” It’s not proof. It’s belief.
But not everyone’s sold. In Karachi, where people are tired of endless militancy, some ask why ISI can’t stop groups like Jaish-e-Muhammad—groups that struck India before and likely again. The “neutral probe” offer? Locals laugh. Everyone knows Pakistan won’t own its proxies.
ACROSS THE BORDER, in Jammu or Delhi, the vibe is RAGE mixed with PRIDE. India’s middle class, glued to TV, cheers Modi’s tough talk. Suspending the Indus treaty and closing the border feels like justice for Pahalgam’s dead. That’s collective effervescence—a national high where emotion drowns reason.
But in Srinagar’s markets, it’s different. People are scared—not of Pakistan, but of India’s next move: more troops, more lockdowns. They remember 2019, when Delhi stripped Kashmir’s autonomy. They fear déjà vu.
India’s silence on Pakistan’s strike claims feels like a coiled snake. Yet its refusal to share evidence or allow scrutiny makes even Indians raise eyebrows.
This whole game—“provocative deterrence”—is built on fear. Both militaries spin narratives, needing the ENEMY to justify their power. By painting India as 'irrational," Pakistan boxes it in: “strike and prove us right, or stay silent and look weak.”
It’s worked before. After Mumbai 2008, denials and blame-games stalled India’s response. But locals on both sides know what’s at stake. One misstep, and cities burn. Kargil nearly went NUCLEAR.
And in Kashmir—where it always begins—the people see through the farce. India’s iron hand only grows resentment, making the “terrorist recruiter’s job easier.”
Rejecting Pakistan’s probe do reeks of arrogance. Just like decades of rejecting UN mediation. Yet, India’s restraint—no strikes, no mass mobilization—suggests it sees the trap.
I’ve read too many gravestones to care for strategy. 1947. 1965. 1999.
It’s not deterrence. It’s obsession. And the graveyards keep growing.
- Both exploit Kashmir’s pain for votes and power.
- Their nuclear sabers, waved since 1998, aren’t strength; they’re cowardice, holding the region hostage to their egos.
- All references to public perception are only observational.
So let’s call their strategy “provocative deterrence”—a fancy term for poking your enemy until they snap or cower, all while crying foul.
On the Pakistani side—in Lahore or Rawalpindi—the MOOD is TENSE but FAMILIAR. People huddle at tea stalls, muttering about India’s “arrogance.” From TARAR to ASIF, leaders flood the airwaves with warnings of Indian strikes, and the street buys it. Not because it’s always true—maybe it is, maybe it isn’t—but because it’s comforting.
It’s in-group bias at work. Pakistan’s military needs the India threat to stay relevant, distract from empty wallets and a crumbling government. I’ve read shopkeepers in Peshawar swear “India staged Pahalgam to crush Pakistan’s economy.” It’s not proof. It’s belief.
But not everyone’s sold. In Karachi, where people are tired of endless militancy, some ask why ISI can’t stop groups like Jaish-e-Muhammad—groups that struck India before and likely again. The “neutral probe” offer? Locals laugh. Everyone knows Pakistan won’t own its proxies.
ACROSS THE BORDER, in Jammu or Delhi, the vibe is RAGE mixed with PRIDE. India’s middle class, glued to TV, cheers Modi’s tough talk. Suspending the Indus treaty and closing the border feels like justice for Pahalgam’s dead. That’s collective effervescence—a national high where emotion drowns reason.
But in Srinagar’s markets, it’s different. People are scared—not of Pakistan, but of India’s next move: more troops, more lockdowns. They remember 2019, when Delhi stripped Kashmir’s autonomy. They fear déjà vu.
India’s silence on Pakistan’s strike claims feels like a coiled snake. Yet its refusal to share evidence or allow scrutiny makes even Indians raise eyebrows.
This whole game—“provocative deterrence”—is built on fear. Both militaries spin narratives, needing the ENEMY to justify their power. By painting India as 'irrational," Pakistan boxes it in: “strike and prove us right, or stay silent and look weak.”
It’s worked before. After Mumbai 2008, denials and blame-games stalled India’s response. But locals on both sides know what’s at stake. One misstep, and cities burn. Kargil nearly went NUCLEAR.
And in Kashmir—where it always begins—the people see through the farce. India’s iron hand only grows resentment, making the “terrorist recruiter’s job easier.”
Rejecting Pakistan’s probe do reeks of arrogance. Just like decades of rejecting UN mediation. Yet, India’s restraint—no strikes, no mass mobilization—suggests it sees the trap.
I’ve read too many gravestones to care for strategy. 1947. 1965. 1999.
It’s not deterrence. It’s obsession. And the graveyards keep growing.
- Both exploit Kashmir’s pain for votes and power.
- Their nuclear sabers, waved since 1998, aren’t strength; they’re cowardice, holding the region hostage to their egos.
- All references to public perception are only observational.
25.04.202510:15
🇮🇳⫽🇵🇰⫽💭 PALESTINE STRIPS THE ILLUSIONS—
MAKES YOU STOP looking at politics as chess, and start seeing it as erosion—of homes, names, memory. Once that’s in your blood, you can’t help but look at Kashmir differently.
No, KASHMIR ISN’T PALESTINE. It’s its own wound. Older in some ways, quieter in others. But the tools used against it—they feel familiar.
"Kashmir didn’t ask for this."
It was born into a limbo. Partition cut lines faster than people could grasp.
A HINDU RULER in a Muslim-majority state—then came the signature to join India, then war, then promises. Autonomy was promised. It was broken.
Some joined MILITANCY. Some DIDN’T. But all PAID. Delhi sent troops. Pakistan sent guns. And caught between—shopkeepers, students, farmers, families. Some just wanted peace. Some wanted FREEDOM. Some didn’t know what to want ANYMORE.
The Indian state says it's about DEVELOPMENT. SECURITY. NATIONHOOD. And some average Indians believe that. They believe Kashmiris want to break the country. They believe the army is keeping things together. They’ve seen the militant attacks. Seen the blood. That’s real too. Fear is a real teacher.
BUT NOT ALL BELIEVE IT. You’ll hear it in quiet corners—in Delhi cafés, in Hyderabad bookstores—people saying:
“We wouldn’t accept this if it happened to us.”
Indian Muslims especially—they carry a double weight. To prove LOYALTY, and to feel what’s being done in their name. They know what it's like to be REDUCED TO A SUSPECT. They see Kashmir, and they feel a warning.
And then there's HINDUTVA. That ideology doesn’t want compromise. It wants control.
"Kashmir was a test. Abrogate the law. Silence the dissent. Watch the world shrug. Then repeat elsewhere."
But it’s not just ideology—it’s calculation. This wasn’t always Hindu vs Muslim. That line was sharpened later—by mobs with microphones, by politicians who need fear to win. The old rules of coexistence didn’t break overnight. They were broken—with cameras rolling, and headlines cheering.
YOU ASK: WHERE DO THE PEOPLE STAND?
Some believe the state. Some know better. Some don’t care. That’s the truth. India is not one opinion. It’s noise. It’s contradiction.
It’s people who want peace but vote for strongmen. It’s people who feel nothing until it reaches their own door.
So no, Kashmir isn’t a clean story. But here’s what’s clear: the further Delhi drifted from its promises, the louder the silence grew in the valley.
And that silence? It’s not peace. It’s memory being buried alive.
And if you're still calling this a religious issue—Hindu vs Muslim—then you've bought the distraction.
This was always about power. Territory. Control.
Just like Palestine.
MAKES YOU STOP looking at politics as chess, and start seeing it as erosion—of homes, names, memory. Once that’s in your blood, you can’t help but look at Kashmir differently.
No, KASHMIR ISN’T PALESTINE. It’s its own wound. Older in some ways, quieter in others. But the tools used against it—they feel familiar.
"Kashmir didn’t ask for this."
It was born into a limbo. Partition cut lines faster than people could grasp.
A HINDU RULER in a Muslim-majority state—then came the signature to join India, then war, then promises. Autonomy was promised. It was broken.
Some joined MILITANCY. Some DIDN’T. But all PAID. Delhi sent troops. Pakistan sent guns. And caught between—shopkeepers, students, farmers, families. Some just wanted peace. Some wanted FREEDOM. Some didn’t know what to want ANYMORE.
The Indian state says it's about DEVELOPMENT. SECURITY. NATIONHOOD. And some average Indians believe that. They believe Kashmiris want to break the country. They believe the army is keeping things together. They’ve seen the militant attacks. Seen the blood. That’s real too. Fear is a real teacher.
BUT NOT ALL BELIEVE IT. You’ll hear it in quiet corners—in Delhi cafés, in Hyderabad bookstores—people saying:
“What happened to Kashmir wasn’t right.”
“We wouldn’t accept this if it happened to us.”
Indian Muslims especially—they carry a double weight. To prove LOYALTY, and to feel what’s being done in their name. They know what it's like to be REDUCED TO A SUSPECT. They see Kashmir, and they feel a warning.
And then there's HINDUTVA. That ideology doesn’t want compromise. It wants control.
"Kashmir was a test. Abrogate the law. Silence the dissent. Watch the world shrug. Then repeat elsewhere."
But it’s not just ideology—it’s calculation. This wasn’t always Hindu vs Muslim. That line was sharpened later—by mobs with microphones, by politicians who need fear to win. The old rules of coexistence didn’t break overnight. They were broken—with cameras rolling, and headlines cheering.
YOU ASK: WHERE DO THE PEOPLE STAND?
Some believe the state. Some know better. Some don’t care. That’s the truth. India is not one opinion. It’s noise. It’s contradiction.
It’s people who want peace but vote for strongmen. It’s people who feel nothing until it reaches their own door.
So no, Kashmir isn’t a clean story. But here’s what’s clear: the further Delhi drifted from its promises, the louder the silence grew in the valley.
And that silence? It’s not peace. It’s memory being buried alive.
And if you're still calling this a religious issue—Hindu vs Muslim—then you've bought the distraction.
This was always about power. Territory. Control.
Just like Palestine.
20.04.202513:51
🇮🇷⫽🇮🇱 FOLLOWING UP—
Iran’s Sepehr radar... Satellite imagery seems to confirm it’s operational now.
A 1.5-kilometer-long array — hard to ignore. They claim a 2,000 km detection range. Tehran can now watch aircraft or missile launches across Israel, the Gulf, even parts of Europe.
Early warning systems are strategic chess pieces; this one places Iran in a rare league. Only a few nations — the 🇺🇸, 🇷🇺, 🇨🇳, — have deployed such advanced OTH tech.
I remind myself, over-the-horizon radars "bounce signals off the ionosphere." It's clever — but sensitive to weather and solar conditions. I wonder how Iran’s engineers have tackled those variables. Reliable performance in combat conditions is another question entirely.
Strategically, it’s a shift. Early warning isn’t just defensive; it changes the decision timeline. Israel’s window for a surprise strike shrinks. But then again, does this make confrontation less likely... or does it tempt faster escalation? Hard to say. Deterrence cuts both ways.
Still, radars don't stop missiles. They only see them coming. Sepehr’s value depends on how Iran pairs it with its air defenses or missile arsenal.
I'll need to keep an eye on whether neighboring states answer with similar projects. A regional radar race would be... unsettling.
For now, Sepehr quietly changes the map. Maybe not much. But enough to change a lot of factors.
Iran’s Sepehr radar... Satellite imagery seems to confirm it’s operational now.
A 1.5-kilometer-long array — hard to ignore. They claim a 2,000 km detection range. Tehran can now watch aircraft or missile launches across Israel, the Gulf, even parts of Europe.
Early warning systems are strategic chess pieces; this one places Iran in a rare league. Only a few nations — the 🇺🇸, 🇷🇺, 🇨🇳, — have deployed such advanced OTH tech.
I remind myself, over-the-horizon radars "bounce signals off the ionosphere." It's clever — but sensitive to weather and solar conditions. I wonder how Iran’s engineers have tackled those variables. Reliable performance in combat conditions is another question entirely.
Strategically, it’s a shift. Early warning isn’t just defensive; it changes the decision timeline. Israel’s window for a surprise strike shrinks. But then again, does this make confrontation less likely... or does it tempt faster escalation? Hard to say. Deterrence cuts both ways.
Still, radars don't stop missiles. They only see them coming. Sepehr’s value depends on how Iran pairs it with its air defenses or missile arsenal.
I'll need to keep an eye on whether neighboring states answer with similar projects. A regional radar race would be... unsettling.
For now, Sepehr quietly changes the map. Maybe not much. But enough to change a lot of factors.
17.04.202515:51
🇸🇦⫽🇮🇷 A Turn in Iran-Saudi Relations—
Today something important happened, though how lasting it will be, I cannot say yet.
Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Defense, Prince Khalid bin Salman, made a surprise visit to Tehran, meeting both Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and President Masoud Pezeshkian. It’s the highest-level Saudi visit to Iran in many years, and it deserves attention.
Prince Khalid spoke in person:
Ayatollah Khamenei responded by emphasizing that regional powers must rely on each other, not outsiders. He offered Iran’s support to Saudi Arabia as "Islamic brothers", a choice of words that is deliberate — and carries weight in this region.
Prince Khalid, described Iran as "a cornerstone of regional security" and calling for Islamic unity against "the occupation and expansionism practiced by the Zionist entity."
With U.S.-Iran tensions rising, Riyadh may calculate that a direct line to Tehran is the best insurance against future strikes.
A charm offensive now could shield Saudi oil fields if events elsewhere spiral out of control. That said, if genuine friendship can be built between these two, it could be great for the region—today matters.
Today something important happened, though how lasting it will be, I cannot say yet.
Saudi Arabia’s Minister of Defense, Prince Khalid bin Salman, made a surprise visit to Tehran, meeting both Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and President Masoud Pezeshkian. It’s the highest-level Saudi visit to Iran in many years, and it deserves attention.
Prince Khalid spoke in person:
"From now on, I say openly and with pride – the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia considers Iran a friend, brother, and honorable neighbor."
Ayatollah Khamenei responded by emphasizing that regional powers must rely on each other, not outsiders. He offered Iran’s support to Saudi Arabia as "Islamic brothers", a choice of words that is deliberate — and carries weight in this region.
Prince Khalid, described Iran as "a cornerstone of regional security" and calling for Islamic unity against "the occupation and expansionism practiced by the Zionist entity."
He also confirmed that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman plans an official visit to Tehran soon — something that would have been nearly unthinkable until recently.HOWEVER, Prince Khalid’s words about brotherhood should not be taken at face value. The memory of the 2019 Abqaiq attack — and Saudi Arabia’s vulnerability — is still fresh.
With U.S.-Iran tensions rising, Riyadh may calculate that a direct line to Tehran is the best insurance against future strikes.
A charm offensive now could shield Saudi oil fields if events elsewhere spiral out of control. That said, if genuine friendship can be built between these two, it could be great for the region—today matters.
15.04.202506:08
🇾🇪⫽🇾🇪⫽🇦🇪⫽🇺🇸 I’m Troubled Tonight—
Word came through the Wall Street Journal: the UAE-backed Yemen’s “government” [PLC] is mulling a ground assault on the Houthis [AnsarAllah], banking on U.S. bombs having softened them.
The UAE’s keen to march into Houthi lands out west; Washington’s listening but hasn’t committed.
Saudi Arabia’s stepping back, stung too many times by Houthi reprisals to risk it again.
I keep turning over the past in my mind. The Saudis tried this game from 2015 to 2022—relentless airstrikes, blockades, all with U.S. and UAE backing. What did it gain? The AnsarAllah still hold Sana’a, their grip tight, following salvos towards Israel now 🤷🏻♀️
I think of Egypt in the ‘60s, bogged down in Yemen’s hills, outfought by tribes with little more than grit.
If the UAE pushes this, they’re misreading the board. The AnsarAllah know every ridge, every village; they don’t need fancy gear to bleed an invader dry.
I’ve seen it elsewhere—Hamas in Gaza.
You, reading this: study what makes a people stand unbowed. That’s where the real fight lies, not in some general’s plan.
Word came through the Wall Street Journal: the UAE-backed Yemen’s “government” [PLC] is mulling a ground assault on the Houthis [AnsarAllah], banking on U.S. bombs having softened them.
The UAE’s keen to march into Houthi lands out west; Washington’s listening but hasn’t committed.
Saudi Arabia’s stepping back, stung too many times by Houthi reprisals to risk it again.
I keep turning over the past in my mind. The Saudis tried this game from 2015 to 2022—relentless airstrikes, blockades, all with U.S. and UAE backing. What did it gain? The AnsarAllah still hold Sana’a, their grip tight, following salvos towards Israel now 🤷🏻♀️
I think of Egypt in the ‘60s, bogged down in Yemen’s hills, outfought by tribes with little more than grit.
If the UAE pushes this, they’re misreading the board. The AnsarAllah know every ridge, every village; they don’t need fancy gear to bleed an invader dry.
I’ve seen it elsewhere—Hamas in Gaza.
You, reading this: study what makes a people stand unbowed. That’s where the real fight lies, not in some general’s plan.
09.04.202519:57
🇮🇱⫽🇵🇸⫽🇪🇬 IF TRUE—
Egypt-linked tunnels give Hamas a strategic depth boost—logistics (weapons, C2 nodes) now sit beyond Israel’s strike radius. ROCKET SALVOS (10 at Askalan, Isdud) prove dispersed, tunnel-fed launch grids.
COUNTER?
"Uncut Egyptian access = Hamas endurance." Regional scope confirmed.
So, how's the land?
Egypt-linked tunnels give Hamas a strategic depth boost—logistics (weapons, C2 nodes) now sit beyond Israel’s strike radius. ROCKET SALVOS (10 at Askalan, Isdud) prove dispersed, tunnel-fed launch grids.
Egypt’s border opacity suggests gaps or complicity.
COUNTER?
- Map via seismic arrays + HUMINT.
- Collapse critical junctions (stress calc: ).
- Push Cairo for, subsurface lockdown.
"Uncut Egyptian access = Hamas endurance." Regional scope confirmed.
So, how's the land?
29.04.202508:46
🇸🇾⫽🇸🇾⫽🇺🇸⫽🇪🇺 What does it say about us when TERROR GANGS and FOREIGN VULTURES carve up a nation?
The terror gangs—HTS, Al-Nusra, and their spawn...clashing with the DRUZE. I despise them, their jihadist filth staining everything. Israel’s worse, a predator. The Druze aren’t SAINTS either, armed and defiant. I’ll write this straight:📝
NEW: The spark in JARAMANA, a Damascus suburb, was a Druze man’s video MOCKING the Prophet Mohammed (PBUH), posted before April 28, 2025. Terror gang HTS, who’ve ruled Damascus since toppling Assad on December 8, 2024, MOBILIZED after the video—clerics, rabid with hate, rallied MOBS across Syria—Damascus, Homs, even the coast—calling for jihad against the Druze. HTS convoys moved on Sweida.
SINCE LAST NIGHT, Jaramana’s been hell. Mortars from HTS and terror gang Ahrar Sham factions, who ignore their own terror leaders, hit Druze homes. The DRUZE FIRED BACK with rifles and truck-mounted guns. ONE individual from HTS died, nine were wounded, per the SOHR, but reports hint at DOZENS more gang losses.
WHY THIS RABID? HTS, born as Al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian arm in 2011, wants an Islamic state. Led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a terrorist jailed in Iraq in 2005 for al-Qaeda bombings, they’ve killed thousands. Al-Nusra claimed 600 attacks in 2012 alone, mostly suicide bombings.
Remember the killings of Druze in Idlib in 2015. In Idlib, their “Salvation Government” jailed activists and tortured dissenters. After taking Damascus, they burned an Alawite shrine in Aleppo and KILLED over thousands of Alawites on the coast in March 2025. Their justice minister, Shadi al-Waisi, oversaw a 2015 execution of two women for “prostitution.” But, okay—that’s old.
MOVING ON, reports say Druze students beaten at Homs University and women kidnapped outside Sweida and Jaramana—unconfirmed, but likely, given HTS’s record.
For GENERAL CONTEXT: HTS’s rise isn’t just zeal. Turkey’s been their mother since 2012, funneling weapons and terrorists and foreign jihadists across borders.
COMING BACK TO PRESENT: The Druze fight because they know HTS’s knife. In 2018, ISIS killed 200 in Sweida, and HTS’s Al-Nusra slaughtered Druze in Idlib in 2015. When HTS demanded disarmament in December 2024, claiming “security,” the Druze REFUSED, unlike ALAWITES who complied and faced massacres. The Druze’s Sweida Military Council, formed in March 2025, and Jaramana militias are ARMED and ACTIVE. But they’re not blameless—on February 28, 2025, Druze gunmen in Jaramana killed an HTS terror officer at a checkpoint. The Druze want autonomy, even a Sweida sanctuary backed by ISRAEL.
Israel’s the VILEST player. After Assad’s fall, they seized Mount Hermon and nine Syrian villages, violating a 1974 agreement.
The March 2025 SDF-HTS deal COLLAPSED, and fighting rages in Tishreen. Syria obviously a PAWN for these powers, and CIVILIANS die.
This conflict logic is POWER/Rabid, not FAITH.
- HTS wants an Islamic terror state,
- Israel wants Syria as a whole.
- 🇹🇷, 🇶🇦, and 🇸🇦 back 🇸🇾 to check Rivals.
- 🇺🇸 & 🇪🇺 play along for leverage.
It's sickening..
The terror gangs—HTS, Al-Nusra, and their spawn...clashing with the DRUZE. I despise them, their jihadist filth staining everything. Israel’s worse, a predator. The Druze aren’t SAINTS either, armed and defiant. I’ll write this straight:📝
NEW: The spark in JARAMANA, a Damascus suburb, was a Druze man’s video MOCKING the Prophet Mohammed (PBUH), posted before April 28, 2025. Terror gang HTS, who’ve ruled Damascus since toppling Assad on December 8, 2024, MOBILIZED after the video—clerics, rabid with hate, rallied MOBS across Syria—Damascus, Homs, even the coast—calling for jihad against the Druze. HTS convoys moved on Sweida.
SINCE LAST NIGHT, Jaramana’s been hell. Mortars from HTS and terror gang Ahrar Sham factions, who ignore their own terror leaders, hit Druze homes. The DRUZE FIRED BACK with rifles and truck-mounted guns. ONE individual from HTS died, nine were wounded, per the SOHR, but reports hint at DOZENS more gang losses.
WHY THIS RABID? HTS, born as Al-Nusra, al-Qaeda’s Syrian arm in 2011, wants an Islamic state. Led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, a terrorist jailed in Iraq in 2005 for al-Qaeda bombings, they’ve killed thousands. Al-Nusra claimed 600 attacks in 2012 alone, mostly suicide bombings.
Remember the killings of Druze in Idlib in 2015. In Idlib, their “Salvation Government” jailed activists and tortured dissenters. After taking Damascus, they burned an Alawite shrine in Aleppo and KILLED over thousands of Alawites on the coast in March 2025. Their justice minister, Shadi al-Waisi, oversaw a 2015 execution of two women for “prostitution.” But, okay—that’s old.
MOVING ON, reports say Druze students beaten at Homs University and women kidnapped outside Sweida and Jaramana—unconfirmed, but likely, given HTS’s record.
For GENERAL CONTEXT: HTS’s rise isn’t just zeal. Turkey’s been their mother since 2012, funneling weapons and terrorists and foreign jihadists across borders.
Qatar’s cash keeps them flush, with Emir Tamim visiting Damascus on December 12, 2024, the first head of state post-Assad. 🇹🇷’s embassy reopened that day, 🇶🇦’s two days later. With 🇸🇦, hosted Jolani in Riyadh on February 2, 2025, pushing reconstruction deals worth $200 billion. The 🇺🇸 lifted Jolani’s bounty after a December meeting. The UN’s Geir Pedersen met Jolani, pushing “inclusivity” under Resolution 2254. These powers back HTS for their own games—🇹🇷 wants Kurdish lands, 🇶🇦 wants influence, and 🇸🇦 wants to counter 🇮🇷.
COMING BACK TO PRESENT: The Druze fight because they know HTS’s knife. In 2018, ISIS killed 200 in Sweida, and HTS’s Al-Nusra slaughtered Druze in Idlib in 2015. When HTS demanded disarmament in December 2024, claiming “security,” the Druze REFUSED, unlike ALAWITES who complied and faced massacres. The Druze’s Sweida Military Council, formed in March 2025, and Jaramana militias are ARMED and ACTIVE. But they’re not blameless—on February 28, 2025, Druze gunmen in Jaramana killed an HTS terror officer at a checkpoint. The Druze want autonomy, even a Sweida sanctuary backed by ISRAEL.
Israel’s the VILEST player. After Assad’s fall, they seized Mount Hermon and nine Syrian villages, violating a 1974 agreement.
By March 2025, they declared a “demilitarized” zone across Quneitra, Daraa, and Sweida, bombing Syrian sites to “secure” them. On March 2, 2025, Netanyahu threatened to invade Jaramana, claiming to “protect” the Druze after the checkpoint clash. Their “PERIPHERY DOCTRINE” uses minorities to weaken Syria. Israel’s real aim is land and power, settling Golan Heights and eyeing more. They’ve invited Druze to work in occupied Golan, a clear move for control.
The March 2025 SDF-HTS deal COLLAPSED, and fighting rages in Tishreen. Syria obviously a PAWN for these powers, and CIVILIANS die.
This conflict logic is POWER/Rabid, not FAITH.
- HTS wants an Islamic terror state,
- Israel wants Syria as a whole.
- 🇹🇷, 🇶🇦, and 🇸🇦 back 🇸🇾 to check Rivals.
- 🇺🇸 & 🇪🇺 play along for leverage.
It's sickening..
24.04.202511:19
🇵🇰⫽🇮🇳 FOLLOWING UP—
Tonight, I’ve been sitting here, trying to make sense of the news coming out, after the fallout from the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir. It’s heavy. The attack in Pahalgam, a beautiful tourist spot, was brutal—26 people killed, mostly tourists, gunned down in a place meant for peace. BJP-led Indian government after a high-level security meeting, came out with some strong measures aimed at Pakistan.
India responded in sequence. Almost like it was ALREADY PREPARED.
The Indus Waters Treaty—suspended. Not canceled. Just put away. Symbolic? Maybe. But not toothless. Pakistan’s crops drink from these rivers. India didn’t need to build a dam. Just stop the data. Doubt alone poisons the yield.
Attari-Wagah crossing—sealed. Trade, pilgrimages, families—halted. The last land route closed without ceremony. It wasn’t just a border; it was a pressure valve. Now gone.
Pakistani nationals—expelled. SAARC exemptions? Irrelevant. 48 hours for some. A week for the rest. No context. No appeal.
Diplomats—slashed. Pakistan’s defense staff in Delhi—sent home. India’s in Islamabad—withdrawn.
None of this is grief. It’s DESIGN. The BJP-led government needs to look strong. Election wounds from 2024 still sting. National security sells. Blood in Pahalgam, whether mourned or not, fits the PR IMAGE.
Across the border, Pakistan’s military-run structure does what it always does. DENIES. OBSCURES. The line between state and proxy fades just enough to keep blame untraceable. Same strategy for decades.
No one’s asking the obvious: “Who benefits from this attack?”
Not the dead. Not the civilians. Not Kashmir. Someone else. Always someone else.
India escalates. Pakistan denies. Publics cheer. And somewhere, someone profits.
What gets lost—again—is Kashmir. Not the STRATEGIC KASHMIR. The lived one. People trapped between two nationalist states that both use the REGION as proof of the other’s villainy.
In INDIA, the FALLOUT doesn’t stop at the border. It turns inward. The narrative starts circling familiar targets. Indian Muslims. Kashmiri civilians. No connection to the bloodshed—but proximity becomes guilt by assumption. Not by LAW, but by MOOD.
And so this needs to be said clearly:
“Kashmiris and Indian Muslims don’t support these attacks.”
Common sense, but that’s not common right now.
Terrorism doesn’t wear a faith. It wears the STORY. The PURPOSE. The POWER.
In PAKISTAN, the event redirects attention—away from inflation, from IMF strings, from the military’s quiet grip on elected space. Back to Indian aggression. Familiar, convenient.
This is a market.
Violence is product.
Fear is currency.
Peace has no sponsors.
The grief? ALREADY SPENT. Turned into policy. Into press briefings. Into hashtags. The dead don’t get justice. They get into utility.
And Kashmiris stay where they always are—BENEATH IT. Between retaliations. Between stories. Between nations that speak of them, but never to them.
Nothing new is happening. Just better optics.
PS:
- This isn’t about moral symmetry. It’s about power symmetry in cynicism.
- Grief is cheapened when it's used to manufacture consent
- Policies don’t float—they come from parties. To name is not bias. It’s accountability.
Tonight, I’ve been sitting here, trying to make sense of the news coming out, after the fallout from the Pahalgam terrorist attack in Jammu and Kashmir. It’s heavy. The attack in Pahalgam, a beautiful tourist spot, was brutal—26 people killed, mostly tourists, gunned down in a place meant for peace. BJP-led Indian government after a high-level security meeting, came out with some strong measures aimed at Pakistan.
India responded in sequence. Almost like it was ALREADY PREPARED.
The Indus Waters Treaty—suspended. Not canceled. Just put away. Symbolic? Maybe. But not toothless. Pakistan’s crops drink from these rivers. India didn’t need to build a dam. Just stop the data. Doubt alone poisons the yield.
Attari-Wagah crossing—sealed. Trade, pilgrimages, families—halted. The last land route closed without ceremony. It wasn’t just a border; it was a pressure valve. Now gone.
Pakistani nationals—expelled. SAARC exemptions? Irrelevant. 48 hours for some. A week for the rest. No context. No appeal.
Diplomats—slashed. Pakistan’s defense staff in Delhi—sent home. India’s in Islamabad—withdrawn.
None of this is grief. It’s DESIGN. The BJP-led government needs to look strong. Election wounds from 2024 still sting. National security sells. Blood in Pahalgam, whether mourned or not, fits the PR IMAGE.
Across the border, Pakistan’s military-run structure does what it always does. DENIES. OBSCURES. The line between state and proxy fades just enough to keep blame untraceable. Same strategy for decades.
No one’s asking the obvious: “Who benefits from this attack?”
Not the dead. Not the civilians. Not Kashmir. Someone else. Always someone else.
India escalates. Pakistan denies. Publics cheer. And somewhere, someone profits.
What gets lost—again—is Kashmir. Not the STRATEGIC KASHMIR. The lived one. People trapped between two nationalist states that both use the REGION as proof of the other’s villainy.
In INDIA, the FALLOUT doesn’t stop at the border. It turns inward. The narrative starts circling familiar targets. Indian Muslims. Kashmiri civilians. No connection to the bloodshed—but proximity becomes guilt by assumption. Not by LAW, but by MOOD.
And so this needs to be said clearly:
“Kashmiris and Indian Muslims don’t support these attacks.”
Common sense, but that’s not common right now.
Terrorism doesn’t wear a faith. It wears the STORY. The PURPOSE. The POWER.
In PAKISTAN, the event redirects attention—away from inflation, from IMF strings, from the military’s quiet grip on elected space. Back to Indian aggression. Familiar, convenient.
This is a market.
Violence is product.
Fear is currency.
Peace has no sponsors.
The grief? ALREADY SPENT. Turned into policy. Into press briefings. Into hashtags. The dead don’t get justice. They get into utility.
And Kashmiris stay where they always are—BENEATH IT. Between retaliations. Between stories. Between nations that speak of them, but never to them.
Nothing new is happening. Just better optics.
PS:
- This isn’t about moral symmetry. It’s about power symmetry in cynicism.
- Grief is cheapened when it's used to manufacture consent
- Policies don’t float—they come from parties. To name is not bias. It’s accountability.
19.04.202517:05
🇮🇷⫽🇺🇸⫽🇴🇲 FOLLOWING UP—
The Rome talks ended quietly.
Just the slow, steady drag of diplomacy. They’re calling it “productive.” Maybe it was. Hard to say.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi says the technical teams will meet in Oman on Wednesday, another round of talks Saturday to go over the findings.
Iran isn’t moving: inspections stay under IAEA control.
🇮🇱’S REACTION CAME ON CUE: Now there’s word the U.S. might be stepping back from its old demand: the full dismantling of 🇮🇷’s nuclear program.
But I’ve seen too much to take first reports at face value.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s people aren't sitting still. Their Minister of Strategic Affairs is already in Rome, sniffing around the edges.
And before these talks even started, he and the Mossad chief were in Paris, meeting the U.S. envoy.
They’re about pressure.
Where does that leave the ground?
Or it could change nothing at all.
For now, I’ll keep my judgments quiet. Too much in motion.
Too many ways this could still go wrong. “And it usually does.”
The Rome talks ended quietly.
- No breakdowns.
- No breakthroughs.
Just the slow, steady drag of diplomacy. They’re calling it “productive.” Maybe it was. Hard to say.
“Words like that get thrown around too easily in rooms like these.”
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi says the technical teams will meet in Oman on Wednesday, another round of talks Saturday to go over the findings.
Iran isn’t moving: inspections stay under IAEA control.
- No Americans.
- No discussion.
🇮🇱’S REACTION CAME ON CUE: Now there’s word the U.S. might be stepping back from its old demand: the full dismantling of 🇮🇷’s nuclear program.
If true—and that's a big if—it would be a serious shift.
But I’ve seen too much to take first reports at face value.
“Half of what’s said in moments like this is misdirection.”— The other half is wishful thinking.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s people aren't sitting still. Their Minister of Strategic Affairs is already in Rome, sniffing around the edges.
And before these talks even started, he and the Mossad chief were in Paris, meeting the U.S. envoy.
“Those meetings aren’t for exchanging pleasantries.”
They’re about pressure.
Where does that leave the ground?
- 🇮🇷: Holding firm. Not bending on inspections.Saturday could change the board.
- 🇺🇸: Might be shifting. Might just be stalling. Hard to tell.
- 🇮🇱: Not hiding their intent. “They would rather see no deal at all.”
Or it could change nothing at all.
Netanyahu remains predictable.
For now, I’ll keep my judgments quiet. Too much in motion.
Too many ways this could still go wrong. “And it usually does.”
17.04.202506:04
🇮🇷⫽🇺🇸⫽🇮🇱 Lessons in Overreach—
I’m writing this down before the memory blurs — not because it’s new, but because it’s familiar.
According to The New York Times, Reuters, and The Washington Post, the U.S. and Israel spent the spring planning strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities — Israeli commando raids backed by American airpower, pushed hard by Netanyahu for May. Surprisingly, Trump said no.
I don’t often find myself agreeing with anyone in power. But sometimes, even broken compasses point north.
The Plan: The targets were Natanz
and Fordow.
Without the U.S., the operation wasn’t possible.
The History They Prefer to Forget:
- 1980: Operation Eagle Claw — an American rescue mission in Tehran — ended in disaster: crashed helicopters, dead soldiers, global humiliation.
- 2003: The Iraq invasion. Lies about weapons of mass destruction.The war strengthened Iran more than any diplomacy ever could.
Decades of sanctions never stopped Iran’s nuclear work. Targeted assassination like General Soleimani’s didn’t either — if anything, they sped it up.
Any new strike would mean retaliation: oil disruptions, strikes barrages on—U.S. bases, Israel, and oil 🏊.
What troubles me is how easily these decisions are made — often less about security, more about LEGACY.
Iran’s moves are not about apocalypse. They are about leverage — survival in a region where power is often the only language spoken.
But because the 🇺🇸 and 🇮🇱 — colonial occupiers — will not stop feeding on what does not belong to them.
I’m not writing this to hope for change. I’m writing it so the lie doesn’t stand unchallenged.
I’m writing this down before the memory blurs — not because it’s new, but because it’s familiar.
According to The New York Times, Reuters, and The Washington Post, the U.S. and Israel spent the spring planning strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities — Israeli commando raids backed by American airpower, pushed hard by Netanyahu for May. Surprisingly, Trump said no.
I don’t often find myself agreeing with anyone in power. But sometimes, even broken compasses point north.
The Plan: The targets were Natanz
and Fordow.
- American intelligence warned: even if every bomb hit its mark, it would only buy a few months.
- Worse, it would likely accelerate what it claimed to prevent.
- Israeli generals admitted May was too soon; maybe October.
Without the U.S., the operation wasn’t possible.
The History They Prefer to Forget:
- 1953:Iran’s elected government toppled by the U.S. and U.K. for the sake of oil. It birthed decades of resentment—and eventually Islamic revolution.
- 1980: Operation Eagle Claw — an American rescue mission in Tehran — ended in disaster: crashed helicopters, dead soldiers, global humiliation.
- 2003: The Iraq invasion. Lies about weapons of mass destruction.The war strengthened Iran more than any diplomacy ever could.
Decades of sanctions never stopped Iran’s nuclear work. Targeted assassination like General Soleimani’s didn’t either — if anything, they sped it up.
Only the 2015 nuclear deal (JCPOA) showed results — cutting uranium stockpiles by 98%. When the U.S. walked away in 2018, Iran walked faster toward enrichment.
Any new strike would mean retaliation: oil disruptions, strikes barrages on—U.S. bases, Israel, and oil 🏊.
What troubles me is how easily these decisions are made — often less about security, more about LEGACY.
- Netanyahu’s career.
- Another notch for American influence.
Meanwhile, Israel’s nuclear arsenal sits untouched and unspoken, while Iran’s program is treated like a ticking bomb.
Iran’s moves are not about apocalypse. They are about leverage — survival in a region where power is often the only language spoken.
Not because of Iran.
Not because of the region.
But because the 🇺🇸 and 🇮🇱 — colonial occupiers — will not stop feeding on what does not belong to them.
I’m not writing this to hope for change. I’m writing it so the lie doesn’t stand unchallenged.
14.04.202513:26
🇸🇩⫽🇮🇷⫽🇸🇦⫽🇦🇪 Interesting note—
Iran’s role in Sudan’s defense pivot—supplying drones and possibly missiles, with Yemeni engineers digging in 100 km north of Khartoum.
Geologically, Sudan’s loose, sedimentary plains aren’t ideal for deep bunkers; shallow, reinforced drone hangars make more sense given the high water table.
Strategically, Iran’s pushing asymmetric tools—drones fit Sudan’s local threats better than long-range missiles, which feel like overkill.
If Yemenis are involved, it’s a sign of Iran’s tech transfer, but Sudan’s fractured terrain, human and geological, caps how deep this goes.
All that to ensure, this costs the Saudis and Emiratis more than they’re willing to afford.
Iran’s role in Sudan’s defense pivot—supplying drones and possibly missiles, with Yemeni engineers digging in 100 km north of Khartoum.
Geologically, Sudan’s loose, sedimentary plains aren’t ideal for deep bunkers; shallow, reinforced drone hangars make more sense given the high water table.
Strategically, Iran’s pushing asymmetric tools—drones fit Sudan’s local threats better than long-range missiles, which feel like overkill.
If Yemenis are involved, it’s a sign of Iran’s tech transfer, but Sudan’s fractured terrain, human and geological, caps how deep this goes.
All that to ensure, this costs the Saudis and Emiratis more than they’re willing to afford.
09.04.202514:44
🇮🇱⫽💸CASE STUDY—
How a “first-world” poster child turns into an emerging-market trainwreck before lunch..
— For years, Israel ran a "geopolitical carry trade": Borrow stability from the U.S., leverage tech hype, and pretend military spending doesn't have opportunity costs.
2025 REALITY CHECK? The VIG JUST GOT CALLED.
Tech Sector?—0.3% GROWTH (JPMORGAN 2024) when you need 8% to justify valuations.
5.3% GDP ON GUNS (SIPRI 2024) while deficit hits 8% (IMF Q3)
SHEKEL DOWN 10% SINCE 2023 isn't volatility — it's the market pricing in sovereign risk
— 60% FDI DROP means smart money already left
— BOND YIELDS AT 5.1%? One bad week from junk status
This isn't just about Israel - it's THE BLUEPRINT for what happens when:
Markets tolerate illusions — until they don't. Israel's not special.
How a “first-world” poster child turns into an emerging-market trainwreck before lunch..
— For years, Israel ran a "geopolitical carry trade": Borrow stability from the U.S., leverage tech hype, and pretend military spending doesn't have opportunity costs.
2025 REALITY CHECK? The VIG JUST GOT CALLED.
That $3.8B/year military aid? Now has tariff strings attached—"Pay-to-play, Bibi"
Tech Sector?—0.3% GROWTH (JPMORGAN 2024) when you need 8% to justify valuations.
Intel's $25B exit wasn't "business" — it was the first rat off the ship
5.3% GDP ON GUNS (SIPRI 2024) while deficit hits 8% (IMF Q3)
When your debt/GDP approaches Greece 2010 levels, you're not a "startup nation" - you're a basket case.
SHEKEL DOWN 10% SINCE 2023 isn't volatility — it's the market pricing in sovereign risk
— 60% FDI DROP means smart money already left
— BOND YIELDS AT 5.1%? One bad week from junk status
This isn't just about Israel - it's THE BLUEPRINT for what happens when:
- Over-reliance on a single patron meets geopolitical divorce
- Military spending cannibalizes productive capacity
- Elites externalize costs until the bill comes due
Markets tolerate illusions — until they don't. Israel's not special.
27.04.202508:37
🇵🇰⫽🇮🇳 Probably MY LAST NOTE on KASHMIR — but in the end, is there anything left to say that hasn’t been said already?
THE BEGINNING: In 1947, 🇬🇧 left 🇮🇳, dividing it into 🇮🇳, for Hindus, and 🇵🇰, for Muslims. Kashmir, with a Muslim majority but a Hindu prince, Hari Singh, was a DILEMMA. Singh wanted independence, but revolt and Pakistani raiders forced his hand. He joined India for protection, against his people’s leanings—many favored Pakistan or freedom in that particular period.
Pakistan, seeing Kashmir as its Muslim right, sent raiders, India sent troops. The 1948 war split Kashmir: India held TWO-THIRDS, including the PRIZED VALLEY; Pakistan took the rest. The United Nations called for a plebiscite to let Kashmiris decide their future, but India conditioned it on Pakistan’s withdrawal of forces, while Pakistan insisted on the plebiscite as the only way forward. NEITHER SIDE FOLLOWED THROUGH, and the WILL of the people was ignored."
INDIA’S PATH: India’s ideology (intimate, obsessive, and self-destructive) but on paper it's a strong, united nation, where Kashmir proves its secular might ['47 Vision]...It promised autonomy through Article 370, letting Kashmir GOVERN ITSELF PARTLY. Kashmir waters feed farms, its mountains shield China. By the 1950s, it meddled in LOCAL RULE; by the 1980s, it was called out for rigged elections, sparking fury. Protests became insurgency, FED by Pakistan. India’s answer: force—over 500,000 troops, the world’s densest military zone. India cites security: Pakistan-backed militants, like those blamed for the April 2025 Pahalgam attack killing 26, to justify its presence, [included with—arrests, curfews, generalization]
In 2019, India’s nationalist BJP government, led by Narendra Modi, ended Article 370. Motives were layered: voters, fueled by Hindutva ideology, which sought strength, after attacks like the 2016 Uri strike; they saw AUTONOMY AS A SEPARATIST ROOT. The goal was control, sold as peace. The cost was a lockdown—phones cut, thousands jailed, movement banned. India claimed to stop violence; reports spoke of fear, torture, and lost rights. This deepened Kashmir’s anger, proving India’s belief: MIGHT OVER MERCY and It's hunger for land BLINDS it to the cycle.
PAKISTAN’S GAME: Pakistan’s ideology is a Muslim state, with Kashmir as its unfinished piece HOWEVER, pakistan’s the loudest about Kashmir, and the most Hypocritical. It PAINTS ITSELF as the DEFENDER of Kashmiri rights, but it’s really just POKING INDIA in the eye, using Kashmir to KEEP ITSELF FROM COLLAPSING. Pakistan’s military runs the show, and it needs enemies to justify its power. KASHMIR’S PERFECT: a cause to rally the country, distract from CORRUPTION, and keep the army’s BUDGET FAT. Since the 1980s, its own consent and USA ally [Puppet] and it's intelligence has armed militants, sent them across the border, and called it “jihad.” Those militants don’t just kill Indian soldiers—they bomb markets, kill Kashmiri, and turn Kashmir’s struggle into a terrorist mess. Pakistan doesn't help Kashmir; it hijack it
AND OFC, THE USA: Its role is the most INSIDIOUS—QUIET but the most BLATANT. Kashmir is just a lever to keep South Asia under its thumb. Decades ago, it backed Pakistan with cash and guns to counter the SOVIETS, knowing it fueled militants in Kashmir. After 2001, it needed Pakistan for Afghanistan, so aid kept flowing, even as leaks tied Pakistan’s ISI to groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, who’ve bloodied Kashmir. At the same time, it sold $24 billion [08-23]..in arms to India. After Pahalgam, it mumbled about “peace” but stayed silent, happy to let India and Pakistan clash. Why? Tension means influence—arms deals, diplomatic sway, a check on CHINA. Peace would cut those profits.
KASHMIR’S TRAPPED BECAUSE IT’S USEFUL.
- India needs it to feel strong.
- Pakistan to avoid collapse.
- The U.S. to stay relevant.
The 1947 betrayal—ignoring the people’s voice—set the stage, and each player’s greed keeps it locked. They’re not confused; they’re complicit, choosing a bloody stalemate over a solution that risks their power.
THE BEGINNING: In 1947, 🇬🇧 left 🇮🇳, dividing it into 🇮🇳, for Hindus, and 🇵🇰, for Muslims. Kashmir, with a Muslim majority but a Hindu prince, Hari Singh, was a DILEMMA. Singh wanted independence, but revolt and Pakistani raiders forced his hand. He joined India for protection, against his people’s leanings—many favored Pakistan or freedom in that particular period.
Pakistan, seeing Kashmir as its Muslim right, sent raiders, India sent troops. The 1948 war split Kashmir: India held TWO-THIRDS, including the PRIZED VALLEY; Pakistan took the rest. The United Nations called for a plebiscite to let Kashmiris decide their future, but India conditioned it on Pakistan’s withdrawal of forces, while Pakistan insisted on the plebiscite as the only way forward. NEITHER SIDE FOLLOWED THROUGH, and the WILL of the people was ignored."
INDIA’S PATH: India’s ideology (intimate, obsessive, and self-destructive) but on paper it's a strong, united nation, where Kashmir proves its secular might ['47 Vision]...It promised autonomy through Article 370, letting Kashmir GOVERN ITSELF PARTLY. Kashmir waters feed farms, its mountains shield China. By the 1950s, it meddled in LOCAL RULE; by the 1980s, it was called out for rigged elections, sparking fury. Protests became insurgency, FED by Pakistan. India’s answer: force—over 500,000 troops, the world’s densest military zone. India cites security: Pakistan-backed militants, like those blamed for the April 2025 Pahalgam attack killing 26, to justify its presence, [included with—arrests, curfews, generalization]
In 2019, India’s nationalist BJP government, led by Narendra Modi, ended Article 370. Motives were layered: voters, fueled by Hindutva ideology, which sought strength, after attacks like the 2016 Uri strike; they saw AUTONOMY AS A SEPARATIST ROOT. The goal was control, sold as peace. The cost was a lockdown—phones cut, thousands jailed, movement banned. India claimed to stop violence; reports spoke of fear, torture, and lost rights. This deepened Kashmir’s anger, proving India’s belief: MIGHT OVER MERCY and It's hunger for land BLINDS it to the cycle.
PAKISTAN’S GAME: Pakistan’s ideology is a Muslim state, with Kashmir as its unfinished piece HOWEVER, pakistan’s the loudest about Kashmir, and the most Hypocritical. It PAINTS ITSELF as the DEFENDER of Kashmiri rights, but it’s really just POKING INDIA in the eye, using Kashmir to KEEP ITSELF FROM COLLAPSING. Pakistan’s military runs the show, and it needs enemies to justify its power. KASHMIR’S PERFECT: a cause to rally the country, distract from CORRUPTION, and keep the army’s BUDGET FAT. Since the 1980s, its own consent and USA ally [Puppet] and it's intelligence has armed militants, sent them across the border, and called it “jihad.” Those militants don’t just kill Indian soldiers—they bomb markets, kill Kashmiri, and turn Kashmir’s struggle into a terrorist mess. Pakistan doesn't help Kashmir; it hijack it
AND OFC, THE USA: Its role is the most INSIDIOUS—QUIET but the most BLATANT. Kashmir is just a lever to keep South Asia under its thumb. Decades ago, it backed Pakistan with cash and guns to counter the SOVIETS, knowing it fueled militants in Kashmir. After 2001, it needed Pakistan for Afghanistan, so aid kept flowing, even as leaks tied Pakistan’s ISI to groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba, who’ve bloodied Kashmir. At the same time, it sold $24 billion [08-23]..in arms to India. After Pahalgam, it mumbled about “peace” but stayed silent, happy to let India and Pakistan clash. Why? Tension means influence—arms deals, diplomatic sway, a check on CHINA. Peace would cut those profits.
KASHMIR’S TRAPPED BECAUSE IT’S USEFUL.
- India needs it to feel strong.
- Pakistan to avoid collapse.
- The U.S. to stay relevant.
The 1947 betrayal—ignoring the people’s voice—set the stage, and each player’s greed keeps it locked. They’re not confused; they’re complicit, choosing a bloody stalemate over a solution that risks their power.
23.04.202513:54
🇯🇴⫽📝 Another Piece Falls Into Place—
Jordan completed what had long been coming—Banned Brotherhood.
Membership in the Muslim Brotherhood is now a crime. Offices closed. Even speaking of them risks punishment. The order was signed by Interior Minister Mazen Faraya.
The [reason given] was the arrest of SIXTEEN MEN on April 15, accused of preparing attacks with help from Hamas in Lebanon. Whether the plot was real or convenient, it changes little.
The Brotherhood had already been dissolved in 2020. Today only made it official, in practice and in law.
I was never convinced by the Brotherhood. "Faith worn like a flag, ambition hidden underneath."
Still, Jordan’s action here... it’s not about protection, not really. It’s another small step in a pattern I have seen too many times.
A submission, quiet but complete, to the security framework drawn up long ago—and not by them—By 🇺🇸 🇮🇱—For region.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates — they moved earlier. Jordan hesitated longer. But the direction was never much in doubt.
The real divide is simpler: those who COMPLY, and those who REFUSE.
Jordan trades stability for silence.
"It is an old bargain. It rarely ends well, but it buys time.
I don’t expect history will remember the Brotherhood’s slogans.
I don’t expect it will remember Jordan’s statements either.
It tends to remember only two things: who submitted, and for how little.
Jordan completed what had long been coming—Banned Brotherhood.
Membership in the Muslim Brotherhood is now a crime. Offices closed. Even speaking of them risks punishment. The order was signed by Interior Minister Mazen Faraya.
The [reason given] was the arrest of SIXTEEN MEN on April 15, accused of preparing attacks with help from Hamas in Lebanon. Whether the plot was real or convenient, it changes little.
The Brotherhood had already been dissolved in 2020. Today only made it official, in practice and in law.
I was never convinced by the Brotherhood. "Faith worn like a flag, ambition hidden underneath."
Still, Jordan’s action here... it’s not about protection, not really. It’s another small step in a pattern I have seen too many times.
A submission, quiet but complete, to the security framework drawn up long ago—and not by them—By 🇺🇸 🇮🇱—For region.
Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates — they moved earlier. Jordan hesitated longer. But the direction was never much in doubt.
- At the same time — in SYRIA, Julani’s forces arrest Palestinian resistance men.Different places, same line being drawn. It’s not about SUNNI or SHIA anymore. If it ever truly was.
- In Lebanon, another figure tied to the Islamic struggle is killed.
The real divide is simpler: those who COMPLY, and those who REFUSE.
Jordan trades stability for silence.
"It is an old bargain. It rarely ends well, but it buys time.
I don’t expect history will remember the Brotherhood’s slogans.
I don’t expect it will remember Jordan’s statements either.
It tends to remember only two things: who submitted, and for how little.
18.04.202509:26
🇵🇸⫽🇺🇸⫽🇮🇱 Woke up to the usual noise—
Paula White claiming heaven has new visa rules — visit '48 or stay out.
If that were true, Palestinian Christians — rooted in Al-Quds and Beit Lahm long before Europe discovered Christianity — would have first-class tickets.
Instead, they face checkpoints, demolitions, and land seizures.
Evangelical tourism injects $3 billion/year into Israel’s economy.
Settlements expand under the cover of "pilgrimage routes."
Israel’s courts cite zoning violations and security needs — not scripture — to authorize land grabs.
Christian Zionism functions as soft power — creating international shields for hard power on the ground.
The language of heaven is being used to pave the machinery of occupation. Tour buses are just new supply lines.
Paula White claiming heaven has new visa rules — visit '48 or stay out.
If that were true, Palestinian Christians — rooted in Al-Quds and Beit Lahm long before Europe discovered Christianity — would have first-class tickets.
Instead, they face checkpoints, demolitions, and land seizures.
- This isn’t about faith.
- It’s about control.
- It’s about using religious tourism to fund and justify territorial occupation.
Evangelical tourism injects $3 billion/year into Israel’s economy.
Settlements expand under the cover of "pilgrimage routes."
Israel’s courts cite zoning violations and security needs — not scripture — to authorize land grabs.
Religious narratives are being weaponized to reframe colonization as prophecy fulfillment.
Christian Zionism functions as soft power — creating international shields for hard power on the ground.
Any faith that demands erasure is not faith — it’s conquest.
The language of heaven is being used to pave the machinery of occupation. Tour buses are just new supply lines.
16.04.202521:09
🇱🇧⫽ 🎞 I keep returning to this footage—
Tyre, South Lebanon. Ṣūr (صور) 1914. The light catching the edges of stones that have seen empires rise and fall. The camera trembles slightly, as if hesitant to commit what it sees to history.
I wasn’t there. I don’t know the smell of the sea that day, or the conversations lost to the wind. But some silences are louder than others.
What was taken wasn’t only land. It was the right to mundanity. To boredom. To a life where 'home' wasn’t a contested word.
I have no right to their grief—"Yet to look away is its own violence."
The past doesn’t whisper. It waits.
Not for vengeance—
for witness.
This isn’t nostalgia. It’s an unpaid debt.
Tyre, South Lebanon. Ṣūr (صور) 1914. The light catching the edges of stones that have seen empires rise and fall. The camera trembles slightly, as if hesitant to commit what it sees to history.
I wasn’t there. I don’t know the smell of the sea that day, or the conversations lost to the wind. But some silences are louder than others.
"The Levant could have been—no. That’s the wrong tense. The Levant was."
"It was a living thing before it was carved into segments, before Zionism rewrote not just borders but time itself."
What was taken wasn’t only land. It was the right to mundanity. To boredom. To a life where 'home' wasn’t a contested word.
I have no right to their grief—"Yet to look away is its own violence."
The past doesn’t whisper. It waits.
Not for vengeance—
for witness.
"🇱🇧 . 🇵🇸 . 🇮🇶. 🇸🇾 —different names, same fracture."
This isn’t nostalgia. It’s an unpaid debt.
14.04.202508:07
🇮🇷⫽🇺🇸⫽🇴🇲 FOLLOWING UP—
The negotiations between Washington and Tehran unfold like a familiar parable—a tale of power, distrust, and the fragility of promises.
Iran’s demands remain unyielding:
The talks, mediated in Oman, saw no direct engagement despite Trump’s insistence. Iran shut down Witkoff’s request to visit Tehran.
However, the venue shift to Rome amused me—a decision driven by American discomfort with Oman’s proximity to Iran and the inconvenience of long flights.
What’s clear: The U.S. is rushing.
Concessions flow one way so far.
Iran, though, plays the long game.
They know Washington’s deals often crumble—the JCPOA ghosts linger.
I can’t help but wonder:
Are we watching genuine diplomacy or just a staged detour before escalation?
When a nation as transient in its commitments as the United States offers swift solutions, skepticism is not cynicism—it is prudence.
Time, as ever, will judge which side heeds history’s quiet warnings.
The negotiations between Washington and Tehran unfold like a familiar parable—a tale of power, distrust, and the fragility of promises.
Iran’s demands remain unyielding:
- Unfreezing of its seized billions.The Americans, in their urgency, have already acquiesced to a precarious short-term arrangement—devoid of rigorous oversight, stitched together with the thread of “good faith.”—reveals much about desperation.
- Loosening of oil export chains
- Swift relief from the nuclear program’s suffocating sanctions.
The talks, mediated in Oman, saw no direct engagement despite Trump’s insistence. Iran shut down Witkoff’s request to visit Tehran.
Trust is a currency neither side has.
However, the venue shift to Rome amused me—a decision driven by American discomfort with Oman’s proximity to Iran and the inconvenience of long flights.
Petty concerns that expose a lack of respect for the process
“Dialogue may intensify soon, possibly leading to direct talks, but the U.S. track record of broken promises looms large.”
What’s clear: The U.S. is rushing.
Concessions flow one way so far.
Iran, though, plays the long game.
They know Washington’s deals often crumble—the JCPOA ghosts linger.
I can’t help but wonder:
Are we watching genuine diplomacy or just a staged detour before escalation?
“Rushed accords bear weak roots.”
When a nation as transient in its commitments as the United States offers swift solutions, skepticism is not cynicism—it is prudence.
Tehran’s restraint, honed by decades of siege, may yet prove wiser than Washington’s hunger for spectacle
Time, as ever, will judge which side heeds history’s quiet warnings.
08.04.202511:10
🇺🇸⫽🇮🇷 Meanwhile: Trump’s April 7 claim of “direct talks” collapsed instantly—Iran corrected it to indirect. The lie wasn’t a slip; it was a test. Can we still gaslight the world? The answer: Not anymore.
His “great danger” threat? Same script as 2018—when ripping up the nuclear deal lit this fire. Recycling failed tactics isn’t strategy; it’s the arrogance of power refusing to learn.
— Iran’s “resistance” alliances strain under sanctions and brinkmanship
— Civilians—not just leaders—absorb the fallout
Power thinks it can bluff its way out of accountability. But every lie weakens the house of cards. When delusion drives policy, collapse isn’t an “if”—it’s physics.
His “great danger” threat? Same script as 2018—when ripping up the nuclear deal lit this fire. Recycling failed tactics isn’t strategy; it’s the arrogance of power refusing to learn.
—U.S. credibility cracks when stories don’t stick
— Iran’s “resistance” alliances strain under sanctions and brinkmanship
— Civilians—not just leaders—absorb the fallout
Power thinks it can bluff its way out of accountability. But every lie weakens the house of cards. When delusion drives policy, collapse isn’t an “if”—it’s physics.
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