QCP Broadcast
22.04.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour - 22 April 25
Not everything that glitters is gold - some of it runs on blockchain.
Gold extended its scorching rally overnight, breaking decisively above $3,500 an ounce. The move underscores a broader flight from U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar, as concerns around Federal Reserve independence escalate. Market jitters have intensified amid Trump’s sustained calls for rate cuts, alongside speculation that he may be exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Digital or not, gold is winning. Bitcoin punched to its highest levels since early April, buoyed by strong spot demand during U.S. trading hours. Spot volumes eclipsed perpetuals, with the largest Coinbase premium in months and $381.3 million in BTC spot ETF inflows, both signaling resurgent institutional interest.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative. As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. The BTC options market is now flashing persistent call skew across all tenors.
Meanwhile, stress fractures are beginning to show in U.S. credit. According to Bloomberg, the cost of insuring high-grade credit against default climbed to a one-week high, highlighting investor unease. With the Trump-Fed standoff set to escalate, markets may need to brace for further volatility.
For now, gold and Bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety.
Not everything that glitters is gold - some of it runs on blockchain.
Gold extended its scorching rally overnight, breaking decisively above $3,500 an ounce. The move underscores a broader flight from U.S. equities, Treasuries and the dollar, as concerns around Federal Reserve independence escalate. Market jitters have intensified amid Trump’s sustained calls for rate cuts, alongside speculation that he may be exploring legal avenues to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Digital or not, gold is winning. Bitcoin punched to its highest levels since early April, buoyed by strong spot demand during U.S. trading hours. Spot volumes eclipsed perpetuals, with the largest Coinbase premium in months and $381.3 million in BTC spot ETF inflows, both signaling resurgent institutional interest.
Bitcoin’s resilience in the overnight session adds weight to the decoupling narrative. As capital rotates into safe-haven and inflation-hedging assets, BTC and gold are proving to be key beneficiaries of the exodus from USD risk. The BTC options market is now flashing persistent call skew across all tenors.
Meanwhile, stress fractures are beginning to show in U.S. credit. According to Bloomberg, the cost of insuring high-grade credit against default climbed to a one-week high, highlighting investor unease. With the Trump-Fed standoff set to escalate, markets may need to brace for further volatility.
For now, gold and Bitcoin are standing tall, shimmering with the weight of a market in search of safety.
10.04.202509:34
QCP Asia Colour - 10 April 25
Make America Wealthy Again
If “Make America Wealthy Again” were a stage production, last night marked its dramatic crescendo. President Trump authorised a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, while introducing a blanket 10% reciprocal tariff on all countries except China. Markets responded with fervour: the S&P 500 rallied 9.51% and Nasdaq spiked 12.02%. Bitcoin did not let the market down as it advanced 8.43% while Ethereum added an impressive 13.38%. The crypto market saw $75 million in shorts liquidated within 60 minutes of the announcement.
Respect is Earned, Not Given
In contrast to his broader olive branch, President Trump doubled down on China, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of "respect for world markets". The Chinese Yuan responded accordingly, tumbling to an 18-year low at 7.3498 this morning. Yuan devaluation serves as a partial cushion, preserving export competitiveness in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch. Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution. Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions. That said, the purchase of December $100K calls points to longer-term optimism for BTC to revisit the $100K milestone later towards the end of this year.
All eyes now turn to tonight’s CPI data, which is poised to refocus attention the domestic economy. A weaker print would be welcome, helping to offset the inflationary overhang introduced by the blanket tariff policy.
Make America Wealthy Again
If “Make America Wealthy Again” were a stage production, last night marked its dramatic crescendo. President Trump authorised a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, while introducing a blanket 10% reciprocal tariff on all countries except China. Markets responded with fervour: the S&P 500 rallied 9.51% and Nasdaq spiked 12.02%. Bitcoin did not let the market down as it advanced 8.43% while Ethereum added an impressive 13.38%. The crypto market saw $75 million in shorts liquidated within 60 minutes of the announcement.
Respect is Earned, Not Given
In contrast to his broader olive branch, President Trump doubled down on China, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of "respect for world markets". The Chinese Yuan responded accordingly, tumbling to an 18-year low at 7.3498 this morning. Yuan devaluation serves as a partial cushion, preserving export competitiveness in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch. Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution. Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions. That said, the purchase of December $100K calls points to longer-term optimism for BTC to revisit the $100K milestone later towards the end of this year.
All eyes now turn to tonight’s CPI data, which is poised to refocus attention the domestic economy. A weaker print would be welcome, helping to offset the inflationary overhang introduced by the blanket tariff policy.
02.04.202509:45
QCP Asia Colour - 2 April 25
It's Liberation Day in the U.S. and Trump is expected to unleash a volley of tariffs later tonight at the Rose Garden. While there was some semblance of clarity yesterday, visibility remains low. To borrow from the president's own playbook, last-minute brinksmanship was never a key chapter in "The Art of the Deal".
The latest wave of tariffs appear to target a broad swatch of countries, including Japan, China, Canada, and the EU. The U.S. seems increasingly intent on isolating itself in pursuit of more favourable trading terms, but early indications suggest that key counterparts aren't inclined to concede. In fact, the opposite may be happening. Rather than fracturing under pressure, global players appear to be closing ranks. Just yesterday, officials from China, Japan and Korea convened to explore deeper regional trade cooperation.
Market implications? In the short term, we expect all risk assets to remain under pressure. But as the new status quo beds in, we could witness pockets of ex-U.S. exceptionalism. Global equity indices may continue to push toward new highs, even as the U.S. risks being sidelined by its own policy choices.
Turning to the Fed, markets continue to price 2.5 cuts in 2025. The Fed finds itself in a tight corner with consumer confidence and soft data coming in weak which may portend weaker GDP in Q2. At the same time, tariff-induced inflationary pressures could start building after April 2. In a classic stagflationary environment, the Fed is more likely to hike than cut. In the current environment, the Fed appears inclined to adopt a wait and see approach.
In crypto, sentiment remains broadly subdued. BTC continues to trade without conviction, while ETH is holding the line at $1,800 support. Across the board, crypto markets are showing signs of exhaustion with numerous coins down 90% YTD, with some shedding over 30% in the past week. Without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst, we don't expect a meaningful reversal. While light positioning could support a grind higher, we're not chasing any upside moves until the broader macro picture improves.
It's Liberation Day in the U.S. and Trump is expected to unleash a volley of tariffs later tonight at the Rose Garden. While there was some semblance of clarity yesterday, visibility remains low. To borrow from the president's own playbook, last-minute brinksmanship was never a key chapter in "The Art of the Deal".
The latest wave of tariffs appear to target a broad swatch of countries, including Japan, China, Canada, and the EU. The U.S. seems increasingly intent on isolating itself in pursuit of more favourable trading terms, but early indications suggest that key counterparts aren't inclined to concede. In fact, the opposite may be happening. Rather than fracturing under pressure, global players appear to be closing ranks. Just yesterday, officials from China, Japan and Korea convened to explore deeper regional trade cooperation.
Market implications? In the short term, we expect all risk assets to remain under pressure. But as the new status quo beds in, we could witness pockets of ex-U.S. exceptionalism. Global equity indices may continue to push toward new highs, even as the U.S. risks being sidelined by its own policy choices.
Turning to the Fed, markets continue to price 2.5 cuts in 2025. The Fed finds itself in a tight corner with consumer confidence and soft data coming in weak which may portend weaker GDP in Q2. At the same time, tariff-induced inflationary pressures could start building after April 2. In a classic stagflationary environment, the Fed is more likely to hike than cut. In the current environment, the Fed appears inclined to adopt a wait and see approach.
In crypto, sentiment remains broadly subdued. BTC continues to trade without conviction, while ETH is holding the line at $1,800 support. Across the board, crypto markets are showing signs of exhaustion with numerous coins down 90% YTD, with some shedding over 30% in the past week. Without a material shift in macro or a compelling catalyst, we don't expect a meaningful reversal. While light positioning could support a grind higher, we're not chasing any upside moves until the broader macro picture improves.
04.02.202509:32
QCP Asia Colour – 4 February 25
Crypto remains on a rollercoaster, with BTC briefly reclaiming $100k after news of a one-month delay to U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, hinting at potential trade mediation. However, relief was short-lived as China retaliated with new tariffs, sending BTC back to $98k.
China also launched an antitrust investigation into Google, signaling a readiness to escalate tensions by targeting major U.S. tech firms. Any resulting sanctions or restrictions could weigh on earnings, posing a key risk to risk-on assets.
Amid BTC’s climb to $100k last night, markets also reacted to Trump’s executive order directing officials to create a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. While some see this as a potential source of fresh Bitcoin demand, details remain unclear—particularly regarding how it would be funded.
What’s next for crypto? Trade uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook, with options markets now evenly balanced between puts and calls through March. However, volatility could resurface with White House crypto chief David Sacks set to hold a press conference outlining the new administration’s crypto strategy and Trump’s call with President Xi today.
Crypto remains on a rollercoaster, with BTC briefly reclaiming $100k after news of a one-month delay to U.S. tariffs on Mexico and Canada, hinting at potential trade mediation. However, relief was short-lived as China retaliated with new tariffs, sending BTC back to $98k.
China also launched an antitrust investigation into Google, signaling a readiness to escalate tensions by targeting major U.S. tech firms. Any resulting sanctions or restrictions could weigh on earnings, posing a key risk to risk-on assets.
Amid BTC’s climb to $100k last night, markets also reacted to Trump’s executive order directing officials to create a U.S. sovereign wealth fund. While some see this as a potential source of fresh Bitcoin demand, details remain unclear—particularly regarding how it would be funded.
What’s next for crypto? Trade uncertainty continues to cloud the outlook, with options markets now evenly balanced between puts and calls through March. However, volatility could resurface with White House crypto chief David Sacks set to hold a press conference outlining the new administration’s crypto strategy and Trump’s call with President Xi today.
23.01.202509:14
QCP Asia Colour – 23 January 25
Is this the calm before an impending storm? The market continues to grind lower even after the SEC announced the establishment of a Crypto Regulatory Task Force. BTC has broken below $106K and is currently hanging by a thread around the $102K level.
XRP and SOL jumped 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively, after a screenshot of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) webpage offering XRP and SOL futures appeared on X. While CME later clarified that the leaked webpage was an error and no decision had been made regarding XRP or SOL futures contracts, the creation of such a webpage strongly suggests that the launch of these contracts is drawing closer.
On the options front, the desk observed growing interest in the Jan $95K strikes as the market scrambled for downside protection after BTC lost momentum during yesterday's US session. This stood in stark contrast to the bullish market sentiment observed earlier in the day, when traders were gradually building topside positions during the Asia and London hours. With no major catalysts before next week’s FOMC meeting, the market is likely to remain range-bound until there is more clarity on how the recent weak CPI reading has influenced the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.
Is this the calm before an impending storm? The market continues to grind lower even after the SEC announced the establishment of a Crypto Regulatory Task Force. BTC has broken below $106K and is currently hanging by a thread around the $102K level.
XRP and SOL jumped 3.4% and 4.1%, respectively, after a screenshot of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) webpage offering XRP and SOL futures appeared on X. While CME later clarified that the leaked webpage was an error and no decision had been made regarding XRP or SOL futures contracts, the creation of such a webpage strongly suggests that the launch of these contracts is drawing closer.
On the options front, the desk observed growing interest in the Jan $95K strikes as the market scrambled for downside protection after BTC lost momentum during yesterday's US session. This stood in stark contrast to the bullish market sentiment observed earlier in the day, when traders were gradually building topside positions during the Asia and London hours. With no major catalysts before next week’s FOMC meeting, the market is likely to remain range-bound until there is more clarity on how the recent weak CPI reading has influenced the Fed’s upcoming policy decisions.
20.01.202509:39
QCP Asia Colour – 20 January 25
It's inauguration day and in the lead up to today, the incoming leader of the free world launched a market-leading coin with a valuation exceeding $10B, named after himself. The global reach and speed at which $TRUMP surged signal a paradigm shift in capital formation as crypto becomes increasingly mainstream.
Could this be the catalyst that drives the anticipated alt-coin season? Launching $TRUMP on SOL proves to be a significant endorsement of the chain, making it plausible that the SOL ETF could gain approval much earlier than expected. With increased media exposure from similar launches, retail inflows are likely to come streaming in.
Apart from memecoins, BTC appears poised to break higher with funding exceeding 65% on Deribit. Saylor added fuel to speculation with a tweet yesterday, sharing his trademark "Saylor Tracker" which usually signals another round of buying, and a cryptic message, "Things will be different tomorrow", creating additional suspense on Trump's Day 1.
The launch of Trump's memecoin appeals not only to the retail memecoin moonshot masses, but also to major institutions as it solidifies the president's pro-crypto stance. This week, institutional investors are on the edge of their seats, awaiting concrete pro-crypto policies that could significantly influence the future of the economy. The global ripple effects of this clear US "green light" for crypto adoption have yet to fully materialize.
It's inauguration day and in the lead up to today, the incoming leader of the free world launched a market-leading coin with a valuation exceeding $10B, named after himself. The global reach and speed at which $TRUMP surged signal a paradigm shift in capital formation as crypto becomes increasingly mainstream.
Could this be the catalyst that drives the anticipated alt-coin season? Launching $TRUMP on SOL proves to be a significant endorsement of the chain, making it plausible that the SOL ETF could gain approval much earlier than expected. With increased media exposure from similar launches, retail inflows are likely to come streaming in.
Apart from memecoins, BTC appears poised to break higher with funding exceeding 65% on Deribit. Saylor added fuel to speculation with a tweet yesterday, sharing his trademark "Saylor Tracker" which usually signals another round of buying, and a cryptic message, "Things will be different tomorrow", creating additional suspense on Trump's Day 1.
The launch of Trump's memecoin appeals not only to the retail memecoin moonshot masses, but also to major institutions as it solidifies the president's pro-crypto stance. This week, institutional investors are on the edge of their seats, awaiting concrete pro-crypto policies that could significantly influence the future of the economy. The global ripple effects of this clear US "green light" for crypto adoption have yet to fully materialize.
21.04.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour - 21 April 25
Bitcoin staged an Easter resurrection of its own, surging past $87k during early Asia hours in a sharp reversal that clawed back much of the selloff sparked by former President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April. While crypto markets are no strangers to illiquid, long-weekend rallies, this move stood in stark contrast to December’s muted Santa Rally. This time, BTC delivered.
But Bitcoin wasn’t alone. Gold also spiked to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by renewed trade war tensions and a weakening US dollar. With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation.
Indeed, we’re already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF flows turned positive last week with net inflows of $13.4 million, a stark contrast to the previous week’s $708 million in outflows. In options markets, positioning has turned more balanced. Risk reversals across tenors have flattened out, diverging from the persistent near-dated put skew that has dominated for weeks.
So was today’s tandem rally in BTC and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards BTC as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between BTC, gold and equities is one to watch closely.
For now, we’re keeping our eyes on the key $88.8k resistance level. Until that breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing any firm conclusions.
Bitcoin staged an Easter resurrection of its own, surging past $87k during early Asia hours in a sharp reversal that clawed back much of the selloff sparked by former President Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” announcement on 2 April. While crypto markets are no strangers to illiquid, long-weekend rallies, this move stood in stark contrast to December’s muted Santa Rally. This time, BTC delivered.
But Bitcoin wasn’t alone. Gold also spiked to fresh all-time highs, buoyed by renewed trade war tensions and a weakening US dollar. With equities finishing last week in the red and extending an April drawdown, the narrative of BTC as a safe haven or inflation hedge is once again gaining traction. Should this dynamic hold, it could provide a fresh tailwind for institutional BTC allocation.
Indeed, we’re already seeing early signs of institutional confidence returning. Spot BTC ETF flows turned positive last week with net inflows of $13.4 million, a stark contrast to the previous week’s $708 million in outflows. In options markets, positioning has turned more balanced. Risk reversals across tenors have flattened out, diverging from the persistent near-dated put skew that has dominated for weeks.
So was today’s tandem rally in BTC and gold merely holiday-driven noise, or a meaningful shift towards BTC as a safe-haven asset? The latter would mark a material change in how traditional finance views Bitcoin. With Europe still on holiday, market confirmation may take a few more sessions. The correlation between BTC, gold and equities is one to watch closely.
For now, we’re keeping our eyes on the key $88.8k resistance level. Until that breaks decisively, we remain cautious about drawing any firm conclusions.
09.04.202509:02
QCP Asia Colour - 9 April 25
Markets extended their declines overnight after the U.S. imposed a fresh wave of tariffs on China, bringing the total levy on Chinese imports to a staggering 104%.
Volatility remains elevated, with the VIX holding above 40 for the third straight session. Even traditional safe havens are failing to function as intended. Risk off assets are failing to provide a suitable hedge, with Gold and U.S. bonds selling off as investors rush to de-risk and meet margin calls.
The Trump administration's strategy to refinance U.S. debt at lower levels is showing signs of strain, as yields surged across the curve. 10Y USTs peaked at 4.50%, while 30Y yields briefly breached 5%. Credit spreads continue to widen, reflecting a broader deterioration in risk sentiment.
Rather than pivoting, President Trump appears to be employing a martingale strategy, doubling down on each retaliatory move. With China holding most of the leverage, the question becomes: how many more chips can the U.S. afford to throw into the pot?
Markets are now posed between two hopes, either a Trump put or Fed put, to provide a floor. Neither looks immediately forthcoming. With unemployment holding steady and inflation showing signs of resurgence, the Fed is likely to maintain current rates for the foreseeable future. This stands in contrast to market pricing, which reflects expectations of four cuts in 2025, including speculation about a potential inter-meeting cut.
BTC is consolidating around the $75k level, though this could unravel if equities face another sharp leg lower. ETH continues to underperform, drifting toward the $1,400, levels last seen in early 2023. Amid heightened volatility, crypto yield strategies are coming back into focus. Elevated implied vols offer a compelling window to earn carry through structured trades.
Markets extended their declines overnight after the U.S. imposed a fresh wave of tariffs on China, bringing the total levy on Chinese imports to a staggering 104%.
Volatility remains elevated, with the VIX holding above 40 for the third straight session. Even traditional safe havens are failing to function as intended. Risk off assets are failing to provide a suitable hedge, with Gold and U.S. bonds selling off as investors rush to de-risk and meet margin calls.
The Trump administration's strategy to refinance U.S. debt at lower levels is showing signs of strain, as yields surged across the curve. 10Y USTs peaked at 4.50%, while 30Y yields briefly breached 5%. Credit spreads continue to widen, reflecting a broader deterioration in risk sentiment.
Rather than pivoting, President Trump appears to be employing a martingale strategy, doubling down on each retaliatory move. With China holding most of the leverage, the question becomes: how many more chips can the U.S. afford to throw into the pot?
Markets are now posed between two hopes, either a Trump put or Fed put, to provide a floor. Neither looks immediately forthcoming. With unemployment holding steady and inflation showing signs of resurgence, the Fed is likely to maintain current rates for the foreseeable future. This stands in contrast to market pricing, which reflects expectations of four cuts in 2025, including speculation about a potential inter-meeting cut.
BTC is consolidating around the $75k level, though this could unravel if equities face another sharp leg lower. ETH continues to underperform, drifting toward the $1,400, levels last seen in early 2023. Amid heightened volatility, crypto yield strategies are coming back into focus. Elevated implied vols offer a compelling window to earn carry through structured trades.
01.04.202510:05
QCP Asia Colour - 1 April 25
It's no April Fool's joke. BTC, ETH and the S&P500 have all just logged their worst quarterly performance in three years. Over $160b in crypto market cap was erased since Friday, underlying a sobering start to Q2 and a market still searching for its bullish momentum.
Friday's sharp pullback was driven by large quarter-end expiry where dealers were selling aggressively into the fix, causing perp funding to flip from flat to negative. This deleveraging in crypto came just as macro data delivered another blow: Core inflation data printed higher than expected, confirming firmer inflation in February, even as consumer spending remained muted.
Markets now turn nervously to the next potential catalyst. Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" is scheduled for 2 Apr, where he has promised to unveil a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs.
With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse. There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling. That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief reprieve.
Volatility metrics are painting a mixed picture with the VIX remaining elevated at 22, reflecting continued unease in equities. In contrast, crypto vols have defied the selloff, drifting lower despite a similar drawdown and Friday's mega washout. On our desk, activity was skewed bullish into Asia open. Buyers were seen taking topside exposure ($85k-$90k strikes) and selling downside risk ($75k strikes), a potential bet on a firmer start to Q2.
April has historically been a seasonally strong month for crypto, though we remain cautious. The path forward will likely be defined by a sideways chop as markets digest a slew of macro risks and await clearer direction.
Besides Trump's tariff announcement tomorrow, other key macro events that could drive further volatility:
- 1 Apr (Tue): ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLT Job Openings
- 3 Apr (Thu): ISM Services PMI
- 4 Apr (Fri): NFP, Unemployment Rate, Fed Powell Speech
It's no April Fool's joke. BTC, ETH and the S&P500 have all just logged their worst quarterly performance in three years. Over $160b in crypto market cap was erased since Friday, underlying a sobering start to Q2 and a market still searching for its bullish momentum.
Friday's sharp pullback was driven by large quarter-end expiry where dealers were selling aggressively into the fix, causing perp funding to flip from flat to negative. This deleveraging in crypto came just as macro data delivered another blow: Core inflation data printed higher than expected, confirming firmer inflation in February, even as consumer spending remained muted.
Markets now turn nervously to the next potential catalyst. Donald Trump's "Liberation Day" is scheduled for 2 Apr, where he has promised to unveil a sweeping set of reciprocal tariffs.
With consumer confidence plumbing 12-year lows and equity markets already rattled by a 4-5% weekly drawdown, the timing couldn't be worse. There is a real risk that a broad and aggressive regime could deepen recession fears and send risk assets spiraling. That said, political theatre often leaves room for recalibration. A softer-than-expected rollout could offer markets a brief reprieve.
Volatility metrics are painting a mixed picture with the VIX remaining elevated at 22, reflecting continued unease in equities. In contrast, crypto vols have defied the selloff, drifting lower despite a similar drawdown and Friday's mega washout. On our desk, activity was skewed bullish into Asia open. Buyers were seen taking topside exposure ($85k-$90k strikes) and selling downside risk ($75k strikes), a potential bet on a firmer start to Q2.
April has historically been a seasonally strong month for crypto, though we remain cautious. The path forward will likely be defined by a sideways chop as markets digest a slew of macro risks and await clearer direction.
Besides Trump's tariff announcement tomorrow, other key macro events that could drive further volatility:
- 1 Apr (Tue): ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLT Job Openings
- 3 Apr (Thu): ISM Services PMI
- 4 Apr (Fri): NFP, Unemployment Rate, Fed Powell Speech
03.02.202508:29
QCP Asia Colour – 3 February 25
Trump went all-in on his first hand.
The White House slapped a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods and a 10% levy on China. Canada retaliated with its own 25% tariff on $106 billion of U.S. goods, with Mexico expected to follow suit.
Treasury yields bear-flattened—2-year yield rose while10-year yields fell—signaling short-term inflation fears and long-term trade war risks weighing on global growth.
The widening basis between NY and London gold suggests not just an unwinding of popular EFP carry trades but also potential logistical challenges in moving gold between vaults—a reminder of the uncertainty around how far tariffs might extend.
Equities sank across regions, gold dipped, oil spiked, and crypto sold off violently. Acting as a risk proxy before U.S. markets opened, crypto saw nearly $2 billion in liquidations, with ETH hit harder than BTC.
This decorrelation reinforces the view that today’s risk-off move is driven by cross-asset portfolio rebalancing rather than a single-asset event. Expect continued volatility as Trump prepares to negotiate with Canada and Mexico tonight, while claiming tariffs on the EU are "definitely happening."
Trump went all-in on his first hand.
The White House slapped a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods and a 10% levy on China. Canada retaliated with its own 25% tariff on $106 billion of U.S. goods, with Mexico expected to follow suit.
Treasury yields bear-flattened—2-year yield rose while10-year yields fell—signaling short-term inflation fears and long-term trade war risks weighing on global growth.
The widening basis between NY and London gold suggests not just an unwinding of popular EFP carry trades but also potential logistical challenges in moving gold between vaults—a reminder of the uncertainty around how far tariffs might extend.
Equities sank across regions, gold dipped, oil spiked, and crypto sold off violently. Acting as a risk proxy before U.S. markets opened, crypto saw nearly $2 billion in liquidations, with ETH hit harder than BTC.
This decorrelation reinforces the view that today’s risk-off move is driven by cross-asset portfolio rebalancing rather than a single-asset event. Expect continued volatility as Trump prepares to negotiate with Canada and Mexico tonight, while claiming tariffs on the EU are "definitely happening."
22.01.202509:16
QCP Asia Colour – 22 January 25
Finally! The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new leadership has introduced a task force dedicated to developing a regulatory framework for crypto assets. Spearheaded by "Crypto Mom" Hester Peirce, this initiative promises to be a game-changer for the digital asset space.
Shaking off the initial disappointment from Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin has rebounded by 3.8%, stabilizing around the $105k range. However, its upside remains capped as the market stays cautious, wary of Trump’s tendency to overpromise and underdeliver ahead of any crypto-related executive orders. Will these long-awaited actions finally align with expectations?
Meanwhile, BTC futures continue to trend upward, especially on the front end, as market's net-long exposure from last week remains solid. Bullish bets currently outpace bearish ones by a ratio of approximately 20:1.
What else?
MicroStrategy and its shareholders just can't get enough Bitcoin! The shareholders have approved a major increase in the number of authorized Class A common and preferred shares, raising the total authorized shares from 330 million to a staggering 10.3 billion. This expansion significantly boosts the company’s equity base, enabling MicroStrategy to surpass share volumes of nearly all Nasdaq 100 Index leaders, excluding Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon.
With plans to raise $42 billion in capital through equity and convertible note offerings by 2027, MicroStrategy still has $5.42 billion in equity offerings remaining, doubling down on its commitment to Bitcoin.
Finally! The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s new leadership has introduced a task force dedicated to developing a regulatory framework for crypto assets. Spearheaded by "Crypto Mom" Hester Peirce, this initiative promises to be a game-changer for the digital asset space.
Shaking off the initial disappointment from Trump’s inauguration, Bitcoin has rebounded by 3.8%, stabilizing around the $105k range. However, its upside remains capped as the market stays cautious, wary of Trump’s tendency to overpromise and underdeliver ahead of any crypto-related executive orders. Will these long-awaited actions finally align with expectations?
Meanwhile, BTC futures continue to trend upward, especially on the front end, as market's net-long exposure from last week remains solid. Bullish bets currently outpace bearish ones by a ratio of approximately 20:1.
What else?
MicroStrategy and its shareholders just can't get enough Bitcoin! The shareholders have approved a major increase in the number of authorized Class A common and preferred shares, raising the total authorized shares from 330 million to a staggering 10.3 billion. This expansion significantly boosts the company’s equity base, enabling MicroStrategy to surpass share volumes of nearly all Nasdaq 100 Index leaders, excluding Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon.
With plans to raise $42 billion in capital through equity and convertible note offerings by 2027, MicroStrategy still has $5.42 billion in equity offerings remaining, doubling down on its commitment to Bitcoin.
16.01.202508:59
QCP Asia Colour – 16 January 25
Global markets rallied last night after a weaker-than-expected CPI report eased fears of rising inflation. BTC jumped 4.13% to a high of $100.8K before stabilising just below the $100K milestone. The same level of optimism was also seen in equities as S&P 500 rose 1.83% and Nasdaq gained 2.27%.
Both BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced healthy inflows yesterday with BTC spot ETFs recording a staggering $723.20 million worth of inflows. The swift recovery in inflows reflects strong institutional demand and suggests an exciting outlook for crypto.
On the options front, BTC JAN calls dominated the market yesterday as traders adopted an increasingly bullish view, snapping up contracts with strikes ranging from $100K to $110K. This is a promising sign as we head into March which currently holds the highest concentration of open interest at the $120K strike. Given all this buzz, could altcoin season be around the corner?
With BTC dominance plummeting from 58.6% to 57.4%, altcoins are expected to outperform as profits rotate into ETH and other altcoins. For confirmation of altcoin season, BTC dominance will need to break below the support at 57.3% while hovering around the 100K milestone.
Global markets rallied last night after a weaker-than-expected CPI report eased fears of rising inflation. BTC jumped 4.13% to a high of $100.8K before stabilising just below the $100K milestone. The same level of optimism was also seen in equities as S&P 500 rose 1.83% and Nasdaq gained 2.27%.
Both BTC and ETH spot ETFs experienced healthy inflows yesterday with BTC spot ETFs recording a staggering $723.20 million worth of inflows. The swift recovery in inflows reflects strong institutional demand and suggests an exciting outlook for crypto.
On the options front, BTC JAN calls dominated the market yesterday as traders adopted an increasingly bullish view, snapping up contracts with strikes ranging from $100K to $110K. This is a promising sign as we head into March which currently holds the highest concentration of open interest at the $120K strike. Given all this buzz, could altcoin season be around the corner?
With BTC dominance plummeting from 58.6% to 57.4%, altcoins are expected to outperform as profits rotate into ETH and other altcoins. For confirmation of altcoin season, BTC dominance will need to break below the support at 57.3% while hovering around the 100K milestone.
16.04.202509:41
QCP Asia Colour - 16 April 25
The Art of the Deal
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory".
Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market's preferred store of value.
Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.
But where's Bitcoin in all this?
Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The "alternative store of value" narrative isn't gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.
The Art of the Deal
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, "inviting" China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we're approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed's attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as "transitory".
Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the "transitory" label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market's preferred store of value.
Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.
But where's Bitcoin in all this?
Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The "alternative store of value" narrative isn't gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.
07.04.202510:14
QCP Asia Colour - 7 April 25
Markets are reeling as the global trade war intensifies. While U.S. equities were already under heavy pressure last week, BTC largely weathered the storm over the weekend. However, that resilience proved short-lived. Crypto plunged during early Asia hours with BTC breaking below $80k and freefalling to a low of $74.5k. Over $800m in liquidations across BTC and ETH have occurred in the past 24 hours alone.
As markets continue to plunge into correction territory, BTC and ETH Friday implied vols spiked above 85v and 130v respectively as the market rushed to cover their downside exposure. The VIX surged above 60, signalling extreme panic and fear across risk assets. China's stock market wasn't spared either as it suffers the worst single-day crash since 2008, likely a delayed reaction from Friday's retaliation where China imposed sweeping 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods.
With just two days to go until the 9 April implementation of higher customs tariffs, the global economy teeters on the edge of a full-scale economic war. Remarkably, Trump's "all-in" appears to be drawing engagement, with reports suggesting over 50 countries reaching out to initiate trade negotiations.
Yet as the world scrambles to secure a seat at the table, markets are likely to remain on edge. The president, showing no signs of backing down, remarked that he doesn't want stocks to fall, "‘but sometimes you have to take medicine." With confidence and the credibility of the U.S. economy hanging in the balance, the coming days could prove too bitter a pill for global markets, and for Trump himself, if meaningful progress isn't made before Wednesday.
Markets are reeling as the global trade war intensifies. While U.S. equities were already under heavy pressure last week, BTC largely weathered the storm over the weekend. However, that resilience proved short-lived. Crypto plunged during early Asia hours with BTC breaking below $80k and freefalling to a low of $74.5k. Over $800m in liquidations across BTC and ETH have occurred in the past 24 hours alone.
As markets continue to plunge into correction territory, BTC and ETH Friday implied vols spiked above 85v and 130v respectively as the market rushed to cover their downside exposure. The VIX surged above 60, signalling extreme panic and fear across risk assets. China's stock market wasn't spared either as it suffers the worst single-day crash since 2008, likely a delayed reaction from Friday's retaliation where China imposed sweeping 34% tariffs on all U.S. goods.
With just two days to go until the 9 April implementation of higher customs tariffs, the global economy teeters on the edge of a full-scale economic war. Remarkably, Trump's "all-in" appears to be drawing engagement, with reports suggesting over 50 countries reaching out to initiate trade negotiations.
Yet as the world scrambles to secure a seat at the table, markets are likely to remain on edge. The president, showing no signs of backing down, remarked that he doesn't want stocks to fall, "‘but sometimes you have to take medicine." With confidence and the credibility of the U.S. economy hanging in the balance, the coming days could prove too bitter a pill for global markets, and for Trump himself, if meaningful progress isn't made before Wednesday.
07.02.202509:06
QCP Asia Colour – 7 February 25
Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $99K resistance level last night, triggering a broad selloff in the market and pushing BTC back to a new daily low of $95.6K. With a three-day losing streak, the outlook for crypto remains uncertain.
The key event last night was the listing of $BERA on Binance, which saw the token rally to a high of $15.50 before stabilizing around $7.60 this morning. The rally drew liquidity away from other altcoins, contributing to last night’s selloff.
Meanwhile, in the latest update on Trump’s efforts to deregulate crypto, the SEC is reportedly downsizing its crypto enforcement unit. This move is expected to facilitate the establishment of a new crypto task force and foster a more constructive relationship between the SEC and the industry.
Additionally, the FDIC is reviewing its bank guidelines to potentially allow U.S. banks to engage in certain crypto activities — such as custody services and "tokenized deposits" — without requiring prior regulatory approval.
As we head into tonight’s non-farm payroll report, market sentiment remains cautious. The desk continues to observe interest in BTC 28FEB25 80K puts and BTC 21FEB25 90K puts, reflecting persistent caution despite the skew still favoring calls.
Bitcoin failed to reclaim the $99K resistance level last night, triggering a broad selloff in the market and pushing BTC back to a new daily low of $95.6K. With a three-day losing streak, the outlook for crypto remains uncertain.
The key event last night was the listing of $BERA on Binance, which saw the token rally to a high of $15.50 before stabilizing around $7.60 this morning. The rally drew liquidity away from other altcoins, contributing to last night’s selloff.
Meanwhile, in the latest update on Trump’s efforts to deregulate crypto, the SEC is reportedly downsizing its crypto enforcement unit. This move is expected to facilitate the establishment of a new crypto task force and foster a more constructive relationship between the SEC and the industry.
Additionally, the FDIC is reviewing its bank guidelines to potentially allow U.S. banks to engage in certain crypto activities — such as custody services and "tokenized deposits" — without requiring prior regulatory approval.
As we head into tonight’s non-farm payroll report, market sentiment remains cautious. The desk continues to observe interest in BTC 28FEB25 80K puts and BTC 21FEB25 90K puts, reflecting persistent caution despite the skew still favoring calls.
28.01.202509:06
QCP Asia Colour – 28 January 25
And... breathe. DeepSeek is still dominating the App Store charts. Its latest AI release sent shockwaves through Wall Street and risk-on assets yesterday, with the NASDAQ closing 3% lower and NVIDIA plunging an astonishing 17%.
The AI mania that defined 2024 pushed NASDAQ valuations to unsustainable levels, trading at nearly 27x forward earnings. However, 2025 presents a new set of challenges to that narrative, with uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s rate path, Trump’s policies, and this week’s upcoming tech earnings poised to add downside risk to risk-on assets.
Crypto-linked equities weren’t spared, with Core Scientific plunging 29% and miners like Hut 8, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining also slid. This decline reflects their growing integration with AI, as many are repurposing mining facilities into higher-tier data centers for high-performance computing.
This move appears driven more by risk-off sentiment than crypto-specific factors. BTC has found some support since our last broadcast and is stabilizing above $102k, with skew favoring calls over puts. This week could test whether BTC’s correlation with equities weakens, particularly as a favorable regulatory environment offers potential support.
As we approach the Year of the Snake, the market’s twists and turns remind us of the wisdom, adaptability, and resilience this zodiac symbolizes - qualities that will be essential as we navigate 2025’s challenges and opportunities. Wishing everyone prosperity and success in the year ahead!
And... breathe. DeepSeek is still dominating the App Store charts. Its latest AI release sent shockwaves through Wall Street and risk-on assets yesterday, with the NASDAQ closing 3% lower and NVIDIA plunging an astonishing 17%.
The AI mania that defined 2024 pushed NASDAQ valuations to unsustainable levels, trading at nearly 27x forward earnings. However, 2025 presents a new set of challenges to that narrative, with uncertainties surrounding the Fed’s rate path, Trump’s policies, and this week’s upcoming tech earnings poised to add downside risk to risk-on assets.
Crypto-linked equities weren’t spared, with Core Scientific plunging 29% and miners like Hut 8, Riot Platforms, and Cipher Mining also slid. This decline reflects their growing integration with AI, as many are repurposing mining facilities into higher-tier data centers for high-performance computing.
This move appears driven more by risk-off sentiment than crypto-specific factors. BTC has found some support since our last broadcast and is stabilizing above $102k, with skew favoring calls over puts. This week could test whether BTC’s correlation with equities weakens, particularly as a favorable regulatory environment offers potential support.
As we approach the Year of the Snake, the market’s twists and turns remind us of the wisdom, adaptability, and resilience this zodiac symbolizes - qualities that will be essential as we navigate 2025’s challenges and opportunities. Wishing everyone prosperity and success in the year ahead!
22.01.202506:36
We’re expanding your trading options!
In addition to SGD and USD, we now offer EUR, HKD, and GBP for Spot and Stablecoin trading. With fast settlements, immediate delivery, and partnerships with trusted banks such as DBS, Standard Chartered, Bank Frick, Customers Bank, GLDB, and Pave Bank you can trade with confidence.
Reach out to our desk today for indicative pricing and more details.
In addition to SGD and USD, we now offer EUR, HKD, and GBP for Spot and Stablecoin trading. With fast settlements, immediate delivery, and partnerships with trusted banks such as DBS, Standard Chartered, Bank Frick, Customers Bank, GLDB, and Pave Bank you can trade with confidence.
Reach out to our desk today for indicative pricing and more details.
15.01.202509:30
QCP Asia Colour – 15 January 25
We're less than a week away from the inauguration of the 47th US President, Donald J. Trump. In a manner reminiscent of 2017, Trump has found a way to shake global markets even before officially taking office on 20th January.
Inflationary fears continue to spook the US market. The US job market remains robust as NFP surprised higher last week (+256k v +165k exp.). While CPI appears to be moderating above the 2% target and despite PPI coming cooler, market participants still expect December's CPI to come in higher than the previous reading.
Trump has widely publicized plans to impose tariffs on trading partners, mainly China, driving inflationary fears higher. Contrary to expectations of blanket tariffs from the outset, it now appears the new administration will gradually introduce tariffs on selected imports.
Plagued by the specter of inflation, bond yields have started to creep higher once again. Markets are now pricing only two cuts in 2025 and 2026 (the latest Fed Dot Plot had projected four), and the 10y and 30y US Treasury yields are approaching the 5% level.
As Treasury yields headed higher, equity markets suffered a scare as the S&P500 threatened to break below $5800. BTC followed suit, dropping briefly below $90k.
The macroeconomic environment doesn't look conducive for risk assets right now given the recent developments. However, one bright spot is that Trump's actual policies often differ significantly from his public rhetoric. Inflationary fears may not materialize as severely as markets anticipate.
For crypto, the Trump administration features crypto friendly personnel. Rumours that Trump will enact wide-ranging and crypto-friendly executive orders provide a short term tailwind, potentially supporting prices.
Expect heightened volatility before and after the inauguration as markets digest and adjust to a new term under Trump. We maintain cautious of the downside as the $90k level in BTC has been tested numerous times. Equity markets also appear fragile, and with bond yields globally moving higher, it can spell messy and gappy moves all around.
We're less than a week away from the inauguration of the 47th US President, Donald J. Trump. In a manner reminiscent of 2017, Trump has found a way to shake global markets even before officially taking office on 20th January.
Inflationary fears continue to spook the US market. The US job market remains robust as NFP surprised higher last week (+256k v +165k exp.). While CPI appears to be moderating above the 2% target and despite PPI coming cooler, market participants still expect December's CPI to come in higher than the previous reading.
Trump has widely publicized plans to impose tariffs on trading partners, mainly China, driving inflationary fears higher. Contrary to expectations of blanket tariffs from the outset, it now appears the new administration will gradually introduce tariffs on selected imports.
Plagued by the specter of inflation, bond yields have started to creep higher once again. Markets are now pricing only two cuts in 2025 and 2026 (the latest Fed Dot Plot had projected four), and the 10y and 30y US Treasury yields are approaching the 5% level.
As Treasury yields headed higher, equity markets suffered a scare as the S&P500 threatened to break below $5800. BTC followed suit, dropping briefly below $90k.
The macroeconomic environment doesn't look conducive for risk assets right now given the recent developments. However, one bright spot is that Trump's actual policies often differ significantly from his public rhetoric. Inflationary fears may not materialize as severely as markets anticipate.
For crypto, the Trump administration features crypto friendly personnel. Rumours that Trump will enact wide-ranging and crypto-friendly executive orders provide a short term tailwind, potentially supporting prices.
Expect heightened volatility before and after the inauguration as markets digest and adjust to a new term under Trump. We maintain cautious of the downside as the $90k level in BTC has been tested numerous times. Equity markets also appear fragile, and with bond yields globally moving higher, it can spell messy and gappy moves all around.
14.04.202509:46
QCP Asia Colour - 14 April 25
Going All-In
After a week marked by tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilise, shrugging off what would otherwise be crippling trade barriers between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. now imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, the escalation reached a point where marginal increases no longer surprise markets. The sheer magnitude of these levies has rendered them symbolic rather than market-moving, a notable departure from the panic triggered during the initial "Liberation Day" shocks.
The Art of Repeal: Olive Branch or Retreat?
Despite both sides maintaining a hawkish public posture, cracks are beginning to show. After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest round of tariffs. This morning, Chinese officials called on the U.S. to 'completely cancel' their reciprocal tariffs.
So who blinks first? Washington is angling for leverage, while Beijing seeks room to breathe. Yet neither can afford to project weakness. Despite this deadlock, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the U.S. appears to be negotiating not just with China, but with bond markets and itself.
What about BTC?
In crypto markets, BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favour of puts until June, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term. That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a "wait and see" approach to the tariff situation.
Going All-In
After a week marked by tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilise, shrugging off what would otherwise be crippling trade barriers between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. now imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, the escalation reached a point where marginal increases no longer surprise markets. The sheer magnitude of these levies has rendered them symbolic rather than market-moving, a notable departure from the panic triggered during the initial "Liberation Day" shocks.
The Art of Repeal: Olive Branch or Retreat?
Despite both sides maintaining a hawkish public posture, cracks are beginning to show. After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest round of tariffs. This morning, Chinese officials called on the U.S. to 'completely cancel' their reciprocal tariffs.
So who blinks first? Washington is angling for leverage, while Beijing seeks room to breathe. Yet neither can afford to project weakness. Despite this deadlock, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the U.S. appears to be negotiating not just with China, but with bond markets and itself.
What about BTC?
In crypto markets, BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favour of puts until June, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term. That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a "wait and see" approach to the tariff situation.
04.04.202502:05
QCP Asia Colour - 4 April 25
Liberation Day or Liquidation Day?
In the latest chapter of Make America Wealthy Again, President Trump reignited global trade tensions with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs. On Wednesday, he unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., alongside a "reciprocal tariff" targeted at countries with a high trade deficit with the U.S.
Markets wasted no time reacting. BTC sold off sharply, tumbling from a session high of $88.5K to a low of $81.2K, a drawdown that erased earlier gains and triggered broad-based liquidations across the crypto complex. More than $221 million in long positions were liquidated, with BTC taking a heavier hit relative to ETH.
As expected, the broader risk complex sold off in sympathy. U.S. equities futures bore the brunt of the impact, with S&P 500 futures down 3.38% and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 4.28%. The rout extended through yesterday’s US session, with consumer-facing names like American Eagle plunging 17.47% — a reflection of investor anxiety over exposure to Asia-based supply chains.
With the key macro risk event now behind us, attention turns to tonight’s non-farm payroll report. Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market. A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025—0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December.
On the options front, the desk continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection. This skew underscores the prevailing mood: uncertain and cautious.
That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce.
Liberation Day or Liquidation Day?
In the latest chapter of Make America Wealthy Again, President Trump reignited global trade tensions with the announcement of sweeping new tariffs. On Wednesday, he unveiled a blanket 10% tariff on all imports into the U.S., alongside a "reciprocal tariff" targeted at countries with a high trade deficit with the U.S.
Markets wasted no time reacting. BTC sold off sharply, tumbling from a session high of $88.5K to a low of $81.2K, a drawdown that erased earlier gains and triggered broad-based liquidations across the crypto complex. More than $221 million in long positions were liquidated, with BTC taking a heavier hit relative to ETH.
As expected, the broader risk complex sold off in sympathy. U.S. equities futures bore the brunt of the impact, with S&P 500 futures down 3.38% and Nasdaq 100 futures sliding 4.28%. The rout extended through yesterday’s US session, with consumer-facing names like American Eagle plunging 17.47% — a reflection of investor anxiety over exposure to Asia-based supply chains.
With the key macro risk event now behind us, attention turns to tonight’s non-farm payroll report. Investors are bracing for signs of softness in the U.S. labour market. A weaker-than-expected print would bolster the case for further Fed rate cuts this year, as policymakers attempt to cushion a decelerating economy. At the time of writing, markets are pricing in four rate cuts in 2025—0.25 bps each in June, July, September and December.
On the options front, the desk continues to observe elevated volatility in the short term, with more buyers of downside protection. This skew underscores the prevailing mood: uncertain and cautious.
That said, with positioning now light and risk assets largely oversold, the stage may be set for a near-term bounce.
05.02.202509:58
QCP Asia Colour – 5 February 25
TradFi markets continue to chop as participants digest developments from the U.S. and anticipate the next move in this high-stakes tariff war.
U.S. equity markets have lost momentum, with the S&P500 struggling to stay above the key 6,000 level. The volatility of the past week triggered a flush in the crypto space with BTC briefly touching $92k and ETH collapsing to $2,100.
The delay in tariffs against Mexico and Canada has provided some relief to crypto markets. However, the U.S.-China tariff war remains front and center. There is a glimmer of hope that an amicable resolution may emerge from the upcoming call between Trump and Xi Jinping.
Meanwhile, yesterday's conference by Crypto Czar David Sacks disappointed the broader market. A task force has been set up to draft clearer regulations, starting with stablecoin legislation. Additionally, a working group has been formed to evaluate the feasibility of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). While this initiative may take time, we view it as a long-term positive for crypto.
BTC's resilience above $90k is impressive, but we remain cautious about negative geopolitical shocks from U.S.-China tensions, particularly amid global market uncertainty. Furthermore, the lack of near-term crypto-specific catalysts leaves the market vulnerable to negative price shocks. In this environment, a defensive approach and risk management are key, especially given the large liquidations observed on Monday.
TradFi markets continue to chop as participants digest developments from the U.S. and anticipate the next move in this high-stakes tariff war.
U.S. equity markets have lost momentum, with the S&P500 struggling to stay above the key 6,000 level. The volatility of the past week triggered a flush in the crypto space with BTC briefly touching $92k and ETH collapsing to $2,100.
The delay in tariffs against Mexico and Canada has provided some relief to crypto markets. However, the U.S.-China tariff war remains front and center. There is a glimmer of hope that an amicable resolution may emerge from the upcoming call between Trump and Xi Jinping.
Meanwhile, yesterday's conference by Crypto Czar David Sacks disappointed the broader market. A task force has been set up to draft clearer regulations, starting with stablecoin legislation. Additionally, a working group has been formed to evaluate the feasibility of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). While this initiative may take time, we view it as a long-term positive for crypto.
BTC's resilience above $90k is impressive, but we remain cautious about negative geopolitical shocks from U.S.-China tensions, particularly amid global market uncertainty. Furthermore, the lack of near-term crypto-specific catalysts leaves the market vulnerable to negative price shocks. In this environment, a defensive approach and risk management are key, especially given the large liquidations observed on Monday.
27.01.202509:29
QCP Asia Colour – 27 January 25
A week into Trump's presidency and BTC dipped back below $100k, along with other risk assets, as news of China's Deepseek continue to spread from the weekend. The Chinese LLM poses a potential threat to US equity markets by disrupting US AI dominance with their cost efficiency and groundbreaking open-source technology.
Now the question is how will Trump retaliate? Trump has already successfully used the tariff card, forcing Colombia to accept deported migrants. We'll have to wait and see what drastic measures his administration might take to save the US equity market.
As for BTC, we do not foresee a break higher without confirmation on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The Trump administration's evaluation for a 'national digital asset stockpile' was not enough to sustain bullishness in the market, at least in the near term. Risk reversals remain skewed in favor of Calls only from March onwards, indicating that the market is not expecting much until quarter-end. However with China's Deepseek threatening the US market, we wouldn't be surprised if Trump attempts to step in and play hero.
Friday vols and VIX continue to be elevated as the market precariously anticipates FOMC this Thursday (30 Jan). Despite today's move and regardless of the outcome on Thursday, BTC should remain relatively resilient as it continues to trade in this familiar range.
A week into Trump's presidency and BTC dipped back below $100k, along with other risk assets, as news of China's Deepseek continue to spread from the weekend. The Chinese LLM poses a potential threat to US equity markets by disrupting US AI dominance with their cost efficiency and groundbreaking open-source technology.
Now the question is how will Trump retaliate? Trump has already successfully used the tariff card, forcing Colombia to accept deported migrants. We'll have to wait and see what drastic measures his administration might take to save the US equity market.
As for BTC, we do not foresee a break higher without confirmation on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The Trump administration's evaluation for a 'national digital asset stockpile' was not enough to sustain bullishness in the market, at least in the near term. Risk reversals remain skewed in favor of Calls only from March onwards, indicating that the market is not expecting much until quarter-end. However with China's Deepseek threatening the US market, we wouldn't be surprised if Trump attempts to step in and play hero.
Friday vols and VIX continue to be elevated as the market precariously anticipates FOMC this Thursday (30 Jan). Despite today's move and regardless of the outcome on Thursday, BTC should remain relatively resilient as it continues to trade in this familiar range.
21.01.202508:59
QCP Asia Colour – 21 January 25
Amid ceremonial cannon fire and a star-studded Capitol Hill, Trump’s inauguration sparked speculation about crypto-related executive orders. Sentiment drove volatility buyers to push front-end vols significantly higher, creating massive vol-of-vol, with Friday expiry trading in a 25v range over 24 hours.
When Trump’s speech failed to mention crypto, the sell-off was gradual but still significant, wiping out $816 million in long positions. The BTC vols curve remains firm at the front end, holding in backwardation.
Markets received a stark reminder of life under President Trump, with more volatility-inducing rhetoric. His threat to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Canada and Mexico is a case in point.
Crypto Outlook
While markets await Trump’s move on a potential national strategic Bitcoin stockpile, states are acting independently. According to Bloomberg, eight states, including Texas and Massachusetts, have proposed crypto reserves, with five more poised to follow.
More short term volatility likely looms for BTC which explains the elevated front-end vols, especially with MicroStrategy shareholders set to vote at 10 a.m. NY time on authorizing a substantial increase in share count.
Amid ceremonial cannon fire and a star-studded Capitol Hill, Trump’s inauguration sparked speculation about crypto-related executive orders. Sentiment drove volatility buyers to push front-end vols significantly higher, creating massive vol-of-vol, with Friday expiry trading in a 25v range over 24 hours.
When Trump’s speech failed to mention crypto, the sell-off was gradual but still significant, wiping out $816 million in long positions. The BTC vols curve remains firm at the front end, holding in backwardation.
Markets received a stark reminder of life under President Trump, with more volatility-inducing rhetoric. His threat to impose tariffs of up to 25% on Canada and Mexico is a case in point.
Crypto Outlook
While markets await Trump’s move on a potential national strategic Bitcoin stockpile, states are acting independently. According to Bloomberg, eight states, including Texas and Massachusetts, have proposed crypto reserves, with five more poised to follow.
More short term volatility likely looms for BTC which explains the elevated front-end vols, especially with MicroStrategy shareholders set to vote at 10 a.m. NY time on authorizing a substantial increase in share count.
14.01.202509:29
QCP Asia Colour – 14 January 25
The global market has caught up with the recalibration of the Fed rate cut outlook. The 10Y yield surged to 4.8%, its highest since late 2023, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until October. Equities futures opened 1.5% lower, sending Bitcoin below $90k before a steady recovery to above $95k.
What’s Next?
Key PPI and CPI data are on the horizon. We think potential surprises could come on the upside, as markets begin to adjust to the reality of a prolonged higher-rate environment, with some even entertaining the possibility of a rate hike.
The momentum in rising yields could test financial market resilience. In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 - suggesting volatility to persist through January.
Still, there’s hope for a catalyst. Reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on day one, addressing “de-banking” and repealing a contentious crypto accounting policy, which could provide a boost to the market.
The global market has caught up with the recalibration of the Fed rate cut outlook. The 10Y yield surged to 4.8%, its highest since late 2023, with markets now pricing no rate cuts until October. Equities futures opened 1.5% lower, sending Bitcoin below $90k before a steady recovery to above $95k.
What’s Next?
Key PPI and CPI data are on the horizon. We think potential surprises could come on the upside, as markets begin to adjust to the reality of a prolonged higher-rate environment, with some even entertaining the possibility of a rate hike.
The momentum in rising yields could test financial market resilience. In crypto, cautious sentiment is evident in BTC options flows, with puts rolled below the key $90k support. Front-end vols and flies remain elevated, while the VIX stays high at 18.68 - suggesting volatility to persist through January.
Still, there’s hope for a catalyst. Reports suggest Trump may sign executive orders on day one, addressing “de-banking” and repealing a contentious crypto accounting policy, which could provide a boost to the market.
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