13.02.202518:30
Thursday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. Samir Varma is now on Substack.2. “This is consistent with my (and Habermas’s) view that discursive practices are in some sense inherently left-wing.”3. Mafia godfathers are having trouble recruiting talent (Daily Mail).4. Sending Sora to film school.5. What is a John Cage pilgrimage like?6. What does a Macca pilgrimate feel like?The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments3.) This is a plot point in Stephenson's Snowcrash lol. Very ... by Silvanus3. They are working for the Trump Administration. by rayward
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4hHc0Cb
Tyler Cowen
1. Samir Varma is now on Substack.2. “This is consistent with my (and Habermas’s) view that discursive practices are in some sense inherently left-wing.”3. Mafia godfathers are having trouble recruiting talent (Daily Mail).4. Sending Sora to film school.5. What is a John Cage pilgrimage like?6. What does a Macca pilgrimate feel like?The post Thursday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments3.) This is a plot point in Stephenson's Snowcrash lol. Very ... by Silvanus3. They are working for the Trump Administration. by rayward
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4hHc0Cb
12.02.202517:55
Wednesday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. Nvidia markets in everything?2. Selfish Reasons to Have Kids is now available on audiobook.3. Software development job postings, the trend.4. Jason Furman on Bidenomics, a very good piece.5. Hard truths, NJ edition.6. New DOGE Executive Orders.7. Richard Grenell the new interim executive director at the Kennedy Center.8. Anton Howes on how coal really won.The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments#8: another triumph for beer then. Bottoms up! by dearieme
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/42S6msv
Tyler Cowen
1. Nvidia markets in everything?2. Selfish Reasons to Have Kids is now available on audiobook.3. Software development job postings, the trend.4. Jason Furman on Bidenomics, a very good piece.5. Hard truths, NJ edition.6. New DOGE Executive Orders.7. Richard Grenell the new interim executive director at the Kennedy Center.8. Anton Howes on how coal really won.The post Wednesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments#8: another triumph for beer then. Bottoms up! by dearieme
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/42S6msv
12.02.202505:46
The three levels of AI understanding
Tyler Cowen
If you are trying to contextualize someone’s opinion on current AI, I suggest asking three basic questions about their perspective. In particular, you should know which of the following three realities they are aware of. Here goes:1. How good are the best models today?Most people do not know this, even if you are speaking with someone at a top university.2. How rapidly are the best current models are able to self-improve?In my view, their output is good enough that synthetic data works, they can grade themselves, and they are on a steady glide toward ongoing self-improvement. You can debate the rate, but “compound interest” gets you there sooner or later.It is fine if someone disagrees with that, but at the very least you want them to have considered this possibility. Most observers really have not.3. How will the best current models be knit together in stacked, decentralized networks of self-improvement, broadly akin to “the republic of science” for human beings?This one is far more speculative, as it is not possible to observe much directly in the public sphere. And most of what will happen does not exist yet, not even as plans on the drawing board. Still, you want a person to have given this question some thought. I believe, for one, that this will move the AIs into the realm of being truly innovative. Stack them, have some of them generate a few billion new ideas a week, have the others grade those ideas…etc.I find it is difficult to have good AI conversations with people who are not conversant with at least the first two realities on this list. The very best conversations are with people who also have spent time thinking about number three as well.The post The three levels of AI understanding appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsWe see AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics. by carlosplnHow good are the best models today? It depends a whole lot on ... by BobI find it is difficult to have good AI conversations with ... by MikePRelated StoriesWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?Dwarkesh’s QuestionIt’s later than you think
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4aT9Ywh
Tyler Cowen
If you are trying to contextualize someone’s opinion on current AI, I suggest asking three basic questions about their perspective. In particular, you should know which of the following three realities they are aware of. Here goes:1. How good are the best models today?Most people do not know this, even if you are speaking with someone at a top university.2. How rapidly are the best current models are able to self-improve?In my view, their output is good enough that synthetic data works, they can grade themselves, and they are on a steady glide toward ongoing self-improvement. You can debate the rate, but “compound interest” gets you there sooner or later.It is fine if someone disagrees with that, but at the very least you want them to have considered this possibility. Most observers really have not.3. How will the best current models be knit together in stacked, decentralized networks of self-improvement, broadly akin to “the republic of science” for human beings?This one is far more speculative, as it is not possible to observe much directly in the public sphere. And most of what will happen does not exist yet, not even as plans on the drawing board. Still, you want a person to have given this question some thought. I believe, for one, that this will move the AIs into the realm of being truly innovative. Stack them, have some of them generate a few billion new ideas a week, have the others grade those ideas…etc.I find it is difficult to have good AI conversations with people who are not conversant with at least the first two realities on this list. The very best conversations are with people who also have spent time thinking about number three as well.The post The three levels of AI understanding appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsWe see AI everywhere but in the productivity statistics. by carlosplnHow good are the best models today? It depends a whole lot on ... by BobI find it is difficult to have good AI conversations with ... by MikePRelated StoriesWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?Dwarkesh’s QuestionIt’s later than you think
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4aT9Ywh
26.01.202520:15
Sunday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. Cato ad for policy analyst in human progress and economics. And for psychology.2. Joe Boyd episode Spotify playlist, put together by a CWT listener.3. Lots more black holes than we had thought? And more here.4. DeepSeek okie-dokie: “All I know is we keep pushing forward to make open-source AGI a reality for everyone.” I believe them, the question is what counter-move the CCP will make now.5. A much longer follow-up post on why northern England is poor (still no mention of drunks?).6. Progress on Neom?The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsIn reply to supermilfbangingmanwhore. From Ryan Grim: “This ... by Excellent point, congratulationsSam Altman is on suicide watch. The only thing ChatGPT is ... by AdamThe CCP’s next move? LOL, nice red-baiting, where were you ... by supermilfbangingmanwhore
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4h1xfyh
Tyler Cowen
1. Cato ad for policy analyst in human progress and economics. And for psychology.2. Joe Boyd episode Spotify playlist, put together by a CWT listener.3. Lots more black holes than we had thought? And more here.4. DeepSeek okie-dokie: “All I know is we keep pushing forward to make open-source AGI a reality for everyone.” I believe them, the question is what counter-move the CCP will make now.5. A much longer follow-up post on why northern England is poor (still no mention of drunks?).6. Progress on Neom?The post Sunday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsIn reply to supermilfbangingmanwhore. From Ryan Grim: “This ... by Excellent point, congratulationsSam Altman is on suicide watch. The only thing ChatGPT is ... by AdamThe CCP’s next move? LOL, nice red-baiting, where were you ... by supermilfbangingmanwhore
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4h1xfyh
12.09.202418:11
My video contribution to the new Strawberry release
Tyler Cowen
One and a half minutes, you will find it here, mostly me talking about how well the new OpenAI o1 model does economics. Spinoza (the dog) steals the show.As I said to the OpenAI film crew, “Spinoza may not be AGI, but if you leave any foodstuffs near the couch, he will beat anything you people come up with.” That said, when it comes to mathematical, economic, or many other kinds of reasoning, OpenAI o1, the new model, is in the clear lead.You need to click through horizontally in two different rows, but you will find many different and relevant short videos here on the new model.The post My video contribution to the new Strawberry release appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/3zgQPWC
Tyler Cowen
One and a half minutes, you will find it here, mostly me talking about how well the new OpenAI o1 model does economics. Spinoza (the dog) steals the show.As I said to the OpenAI film crew, “Spinoza may not be AGI, but if you leave any foodstuffs near the couch, he will beat anything you people come up with.” That said, when it comes to mathematical, economic, or many other kinds of reasoning, OpenAI o1, the new model, is in the clear lead.You need to click through horizontally in two different rows, but you will find many different and relevant short videos here on the new model.The post My video contribution to the new Strawberry release appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/3zgQPWC
13.02.202512:45
Steel Tariffs in Two Pictures
Alex Tabarrok
Recall Principle 2 of Three Simple Principles of Trade Policy, Businesses are Consumers Too. Case in point, steel. Justin Wolfers summarizes an analysis of Trump’s 2018 steel tariffs:ImageGoing back further we have a good analysis from Lydia Cox of the Bush steel tariffs. Even though the tariffs were temporary, they led to a rearrangement of supply chains which led to long-lasting declines in exports and employment in steel using industries.MediaThe post Steel Tariffs in Two Pictures appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsIt's now the Gulf of America. And hopefully Greenland is next, ... by True, but what price joy?Related StoriesThe danger of Trump disobeying court ordersWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?Place Effects on Fertility Decision: Evidence from Mover Design
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/41eW30n
Alex Tabarrok
Recall Principle 2 of Three Simple Principles of Trade Policy, Businesses are Consumers Too. Case in point, steel. Justin Wolfers summarizes an analysis of Trump’s 2018 steel tariffs:ImageGoing back further we have a good analysis from Lydia Cox of the Bush steel tariffs. Even though the tariffs were temporary, they led to a rearrangement of supply chains which led to long-lasting declines in exports and employment in steel using industries.MediaThe post Steel Tariffs in Two Pictures appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsIt's now the Gulf of America. And hopefully Greenland is next, ... by True, but what price joy?Related StoriesThe danger of Trump disobeying court ordersWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?Place Effects on Fertility Decision: Evidence from Mover Design
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/41eW30n
12.02.202515:16
Why it is hard for the Executive to disobey the judiciary
Tyler Cowen
An excellent thread from Dilan Esper. Excerpt:I have pointed out already that Elon Musk has massive economic interests in cases currently before the federal courts. That is reason enough he would have to obey an order or resign if Trump demanded he not do so. A federal court could default him on those suits.But more generally federal courts can issue writs that can be levied on bank accounts and properties. These could effectively freeze the assets of ANY noncompliant government official. Yes, even the President. And no, President Trump couldn’t order then unfrozen.There is more at the link. Retweeted by Alex T.The post Why it is hard for the Executive to disobey the judiciary appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe danger of Trump disobeying court ordersWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?The exhaustion of rents
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/3Qguo96
Tyler Cowen
An excellent thread from Dilan Esper. Excerpt:I have pointed out already that Elon Musk has massive economic interests in cases currently before the federal courts. That is reason enough he would have to obey an order or resign if Trump demanded he not do so. A federal court could default him on those suits.But more generally federal courts can issue writs that can be levied on bank accounts and properties. These could effectively freeze the assets of ANY noncompliant government official. Yes, even the President. And no, President Trump couldn’t order then unfrozen.There is more at the link. Retweeted by Alex T.The post Why it is hard for the Executive to disobey the judiciary appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe danger of Trump disobeying court ordersWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?The exhaustion of rents
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/3Qguo96
11.02.202519:40
China fact of the day
Tyler Cowen
Marriages in China plunged by a fifth to the lowest level on record last year, a setback to efforts by the government to reverse a demographic crisis threatening the world’s second-biggest economy.The number of marriage registrations fell to 6.1 million, according to statistics released by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs on Saturday, after a post-pandemic increase to nearly 7.7 million in 2023. The tally for last year marks the fewest marriages since public records began in 1986 and is less than half the peak reached in 2013.Here is more from Bloomberg News.The post China fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments…apparently doesn't mean to them what it means for us. by Lying Flat...An enduring consequence of the celebrated “one family-one ... by Edward BurkeShould correlate to a large degree with the smaller younger age ... by DirtyJobsGuymarriage is great and this is sad by robRelated StoriesWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?Greenland NextThe exhaustion of rents
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/42WNIQh
Tyler Cowen
Marriages in China plunged by a fifth to the lowest level on record last year, a setback to efforts by the government to reverse a demographic crisis threatening the world’s second-biggest economy.The number of marriage registrations fell to 6.1 million, according to statistics released by China’s Ministry of Civil Affairs on Saturday, after a post-pandemic increase to nearly 7.7 million in 2023. The tally for last year marks the fewest marriages since public records began in 1986 and is less than half the peak reached in 2013.Here is more from Bloomberg News.The post China fact of the day appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Comments…apparently doesn't mean to them what it means for us. by Lying Flat...An enduring consequence of the celebrated “one family-one ... by Edward BurkeShould correlate to a large degree with the smaller younger age ... by DirtyJobsGuymarriage is great and this is sad by robRelated StoriesWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?Greenland NextThe exhaustion of rents
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/42WNIQh
26.01.202509:00
*On the Calculation of Volume, I and II*
Tyler Cowen
Thoee two novels by Solvej Balle, a Danish author, are now available in English. Conceptually, they are close to time travel novels (I should not tell you the actual nature of the twist), but with more literary value than you might be expecting.Every now and then a new book comes along that is conceptual, fascinating, fun to read, good on human psychology, and in literary terms very well done. The Balle books qualify there. Each is also quite short, though the second half of each volume is better than the first, so there is a return to patience (to be clear, the first halves, or maybe thirds, are fine, but the true points are revealed only with some time).There are some implicit economic and even crypto themes in the work, though I doubt if the author is aware of them.So I recommend these, and will not go near potential spoilers.The post *On the Calculation of Volume, I and II* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesAtlas Shrugged as NovelCorin Wagen defends Leviticus (from my email)An Economic Approach to Homer’s Odyssey: Part I
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/3WAyhJg
Tyler Cowen
Thoee two novels by Solvej Balle, a Danish author, are now available in English. Conceptually, they are close to time travel novels (I should not tell you the actual nature of the twist), but with more literary value than you might be expecting.Every now and then a new book comes along that is conceptual, fascinating, fun to read, good on human psychology, and in literary terms very well done. The Balle books qualify there. Each is also quite short, though the second half of each volume is better than the first, so there is a return to patience (to be clear, the first halves, or maybe thirds, are fine, but the true points are revealed only with some time).There are some implicit economic and even crypto themes in the work, though I doubt if the author is aware of them.So I recommend these, and will not go near potential spoilers.The post *On the Calculation of Volume, I and II* appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesAtlas Shrugged as NovelCorin Wagen defends Leviticus (from my email)An Economic Approach to Homer’s Odyssey: Part I
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/3WAyhJg
13.02.202508:15
Place Effects on Fertility Decision: Evidence from Mover Design
Tyler Cowen
This paper investigates the causal impact of place-based factors on fertility decision using mover design and data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1968-2019). We find that moving to a state with a 1 percentage point higher birth rate increases the probability of childbirth by 0.9 percentage points, with cumulative effects reaching 3.8 percentage points three years post-move. The response demonstrates concentration among first births and exhibits systematic variation across demographic characteristics—with particularly pronounced effects observed among white women who are married, younger, and have higher income levels. Our variance decomposition shows the contribution of place effects to fertility variance increased from 4.7 percent to 26.0 percent before and after the Great Recession, with geographical variation in contraceptive access and healthcare infrastructure showing the strongest correlations with these place effects. This research emphasizes the importance of considering contextual factors in fertility research and policy interventions.That is from a new paper by Hantao Wu and Man Zhu. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.The post Place Effects on Fertility Decision: Evidence from Mover Design appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesDwarkesh’s QuestionThe danger of Trump disobeying court ordersChina fact of the day
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4aUeY3P
Tyler Cowen
This paper investigates the causal impact of place-based factors on fertility decision using mover design and data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1968-2019). We find that moving to a state with a 1 percentage point higher birth rate increases the probability of childbirth by 0.9 percentage points, with cumulative effects reaching 3.8 percentage points three years post-move. The response demonstrates concentration among first births and exhibits systematic variation across demographic characteristics—with particularly pronounced effects observed among white women who are married, younger, and have higher income levels. Our variance decomposition shows the contribution of place effects to fertility variance increased from 4.7 percent to 26.0 percent before and after the Great Recession, with geographical variation in contraceptive access and healthcare infrastructure showing the strongest correlations with these place effects. This research emphasizes the importance of considering contextual factors in fertility research and policy interventions.That is from a new paper by Hantao Wu and Man Zhu. Via the excellent Kevin Lewis.The post Place Effects on Fertility Decision: Evidence from Mover Design appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesDwarkesh’s QuestionThe danger of Trump disobeying court ordersChina fact of the day
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4aUeY3P
12.02.202513:00
The danger of Trump disobeying court orders
Tyler Cowen
Ilya Somin covers this question over at Volokh Conspiracy. I receive many queries about this, some of them panicky and anguished. I haven’t covered it, mostly because I don’t feel I have enough insights into the relevant matters of constitutional law, or for that matter what is going on inside the administration (for instance, how should one interpret those Vance tweets?)I can tell you what I would find useful. If you are especially pessimistic on this front, which are the securities prices that would indicate an actual constitutional problem? Particular equities? Interest rates? The value of the dollar? Measures of volatility? Something else?I am allergic to the view that “fascism could come and market prices would not even budge.” In fact, I think it is extremely skeptical and subversive of democracy, or shall I better say a constitutional republic. I think fascism, or a constitutional collapse, would be a terrible outcome in a variety of very practical ways, in addition to its moral failings.In a variety of other contexts, such as tariffs, market prices have been super-sensitive to the actions of the Trump administration. So people, on this question, which exactly are the measurable, market price indicators? After all, you don’t want to be like those doomster AI skeptics who think no one can trade on the (supposed) truth.In the comments section, I am not interested in your blah blah blah opinion full of adjectives. Just tell me which prices please. I do see this issue as constituting a real risk, if perhaps a sometimes exaggerated one. So I will follow those market prices with great interest. I just need to know what they are.Addendum: In an excellent Substack today Matt Yglesias notes: “Republicans, meanwhile, are making very little forward progress on their legislative agenda.”The post The danger of Trump disobeying court orders appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Commentshttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pro... by Philip LingardThe Supreme Court in its originalist wisdom has already ruled ... by What danger?It is always nice to hear Tyler talk to his readers as if they ... by RickyMy marker for losing our democratic/constitutional republic is, ... by JackHow would we control for the impact of this one kind of ... by RMMPlus 7 more...Related StoriesWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?The exhaustion of rentsUSPS as a failed sovereign wealth fund
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/40SiQxr
Tyler Cowen
Ilya Somin covers this question over at Volokh Conspiracy. I receive many queries about this, some of them panicky and anguished. I haven’t covered it, mostly because I don’t feel I have enough insights into the relevant matters of constitutional law, or for that matter what is going on inside the administration (for instance, how should one interpret those Vance tweets?)I can tell you what I would find useful. If you are especially pessimistic on this front, which are the securities prices that would indicate an actual constitutional problem? Particular equities? Interest rates? The value of the dollar? Measures of volatility? Something else?I am allergic to the view that “fascism could come and market prices would not even budge.” In fact, I think it is extremely skeptical and subversive of democracy, or shall I better say a constitutional republic. I think fascism, or a constitutional collapse, would be a terrible outcome in a variety of very practical ways, in addition to its moral failings.In a variety of other contexts, such as tariffs, market prices have been super-sensitive to the actions of the Trump administration. So people, on this question, which exactly are the measurable, market price indicators? After all, you don’t want to be like those doomster AI skeptics who think no one can trade on the (supposed) truth.In the comments section, I am not interested in your blah blah blah opinion full of adjectives. Just tell me which prices please. I do see this issue as constituting a real risk, if perhaps a sometimes exaggerated one. So I will follow those market prices with great interest. I just need to know what they are.Addendum: In an excellent Substack today Matt Yglesias notes: “Republicans, meanwhile, are making very little forward progress on their legislative agenda.”The post The danger of Trump disobeying court orders appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media Commentshttps://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_pro... by Philip LingardThe Supreme Court in its originalist wisdom has already ruled ... by What danger?It is always nice to hear Tyler talk to his readers as if they ... by RickyMy marker for losing our democratic/constitutional republic is, ... by JackHow would we control for the impact of this one kind of ... by RMMPlus 7 more...Related StoriesWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?The exhaustion of rentsUSPS as a failed sovereign wealth fund
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/40SiQxr
11.02.202519:10
What should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?
Tyler Cowen
Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with her. From Wikipedia:Jennifer Pahlka (born December 27, 1969) is an American businesswoman and political advisor. She is the founder and former executive director of Code for America. She served as U.S. Deputy Chief Technology Officer from June 2013 to June 2014 and helped found the United States Digital Service. Previously she had worked at CMP Media with various roles in the computer game industry. She was the co-chair and general manager of the Web 2.0 conferences. In June 2023, she released the book Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better.Recently she has been working on the Niskanen Institute state capacity project. So what should I ask her?The post What should I ask Jennifer Pahlka? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated Stories“Can America Win the AI War with China?”The exhaustion of rentsUSPS as a failed sovereign wealth fund
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/40MowJe
Tyler Cowen
Yes, I will be doing a Conversation with her. From Wikipedia:Jennifer Pahlka (born December 27, 1969) is an American businesswoman and political advisor. She is the founder and former executive director of Code for America. She served as U.S. Deputy Chief Technology Officer from June 2013 to June 2014 and helped found the United States Digital Service. Previously she had worked at CMP Media with various roles in the computer game industry. She was the co-chair and general manager of the Web 2.0 conferences. In June 2023, she released the book Recoding America: Why Government Is Failing in the Digital Age and How We Can Do Better.Recently she has been working on the Niskanen Institute state capacity project. So what should I ask her?The post What should I ask Jennifer Pahlka? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated Stories“Can America Win the AI War with China?”The exhaustion of rentsUSPS as a failed sovereign wealth fund
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/40MowJe
06.12.202412:25
You Have Been Warned
Alex Tabarrok
New paper in Science, A single mutation in bovine influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin switches specificity to human receptors. If that isn’t clear enough, here is the editor’s summary:In 2021, a highly pathogenic influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus was detected in North America that is capable of infecting a diversity of avian species, marine mammals, and humans. In 2024, clade 2.3.4.4b virus spread widely in dairy cattle in the US, causing a few mild human cases, but retaining specificity for avian receptors. Historically, this virus has caused up to 30% fatality in humans, so Lin et al. performed a genetic and structural analysis of the mutations necessary to fully switch host receptor recognition. A single glutamic acid to leucine mutation at residue 226 of the virus hemagglutinin was sufficient to enact the change from avian to human specificity. In nature, the occurrence of this single mutation could be an indicator of human pandemic risk. —Caroline AshTime to stock up on Tamiflu and Xofluza.Addendum: See also A Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in HistoryThe post You Have Been Warned appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsGood that this is a computational analysis….. by RahulRelated StoriesA Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in HistoryChina markets in everythingAssisted dying in the UK
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4f3vw9U
Alex Tabarrok
New paper in Science, A single mutation in bovine influenza H5N1 hemagglutinin switches specificity to human receptors. If that isn’t clear enough, here is the editor’s summary:In 2021, a highly pathogenic influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus was detected in North America that is capable of infecting a diversity of avian species, marine mammals, and humans. In 2024, clade 2.3.4.4b virus spread widely in dairy cattle in the US, causing a few mild human cases, but retaining specificity for avian receptors. Historically, this virus has caused up to 30% fatality in humans, so Lin et al. performed a genetic and structural analysis of the mutations necessary to fully switch host receptor recognition. A single glutamic acid to leucine mutation at residue 226 of the virus hemagglutinin was sufficient to enact the change from avian to human specificity. In nature, the occurrence of this single mutation could be an indicator of human pandemic risk. —Caroline AshTime to stock up on Tamiflu and Xofluza.Addendum: See also A Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in HistoryThe post You Have Been Warned appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsGood that this is a computational analysis….. by RahulRelated StoriesA Bird Flu Pandemic Would Be One of the Most Foreseeable Catastrophes in HistoryChina markets in everythingAssisted dying in the UK
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/4f3vw9U
13.02.202505:45
Will stablecoins herald a broader-based dollarization?
Tyler Cowen
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column. Here is one excerpt:Stablecoins are programmable crypto assets that promise conversion into some currency, typically US dollars. Currently, they are the fastest-growing sector of crypto. Stablecoin usage is up 84% since August 2023 and is now at a peak of $224 billion. The sympathetic stance of President Donald Trump’s administration toward crypto is likely to help growth further.It is noteworthy that, measured by market capitalization, perhaps as much as 99% of stablecoins are denominated in dollars. That is a much higher share than is found in standard international trade and finance. This shows that, if monetary institutions were started all over again from scratch — which is part of what crypto is doing — the market would opt largely for dollars.Traders in many less well governed countries want to partake in dollar-based economies, but they do not always have ready access to dollar-based banking in the way that Americans do. Their domestic banking systems may be unreliable or be regulated to discourage dollar dominance. Traders may also be afraid of US regulations, which operate through sanctions and restrictions on dollar-denominated transactions. “Know your customer” regulations, for example, can make interacting with US financial institutions very costly.So foreigners are increasingly turning to stablecoins, which they can access quickly and directly through apps. Stablecoins are not much regulated now, but eventually regulation will emerge in many countries. That said, there will likely be more and less regulated versions of stablecoins for a long time to come. For that reason, another advantage of stablecoins — at least for individual traders, if not always for broader society — is that traders will be able to choose the level of regulation they desire.Several countries have dollarized in recent years — including Panama, Ecuador and El Salvador — and none seems to regret it. President Javier Milei in Argentina has pledged dollarization, and that proved to be a popular campaign promise, although it remains to be seen if he can summon the resources to pull it off.The simplest scenario is that people outside developed nations use stablecoins more and more. Their economies will become partly “dollarized” — or if you wish to use an even less elegant term, “stablecoinized,” with the stablecoins backed by dollars. People in those economies will get more used to thinking and calculating in terms of dollars, even for their domestic transactions. Dual-currency economies may become more common, with both a domestic currency and dollar-backed stablecoins. Over time, fearing the redemption risks associated with stablecoins, many nations will opt for outright dollarization, either full or partial. In some cases, the dollar might end up predominating.Worth a ponder, and this is yet another scenario where crypto proves useful.The post Will stablecoins herald a broader-based dollarization? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe danger of Trump disobeying court ordersWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?Lift the Ban on Supersonics: No Boom
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/42OTXFF
Tyler Cowen
That is the topic of my latest Bloomberg column. Here is one excerpt:Stablecoins are programmable crypto assets that promise conversion into some currency, typically US dollars. Currently, they are the fastest-growing sector of crypto. Stablecoin usage is up 84% since August 2023 and is now at a peak of $224 billion. The sympathetic stance of President Donald Trump’s administration toward crypto is likely to help growth further.It is noteworthy that, measured by market capitalization, perhaps as much as 99% of stablecoins are denominated in dollars. That is a much higher share than is found in standard international trade and finance. This shows that, if monetary institutions were started all over again from scratch — which is part of what crypto is doing — the market would opt largely for dollars.Traders in many less well governed countries want to partake in dollar-based economies, but they do not always have ready access to dollar-based banking in the way that Americans do. Their domestic banking systems may be unreliable or be regulated to discourage dollar dominance. Traders may also be afraid of US regulations, which operate through sanctions and restrictions on dollar-denominated transactions. “Know your customer” regulations, for example, can make interacting with US financial institutions very costly.So foreigners are increasingly turning to stablecoins, which they can access quickly and directly through apps. Stablecoins are not much regulated now, but eventually regulation will emerge in many countries. That said, there will likely be more and less regulated versions of stablecoins for a long time to come. For that reason, another advantage of stablecoins — at least for individual traders, if not always for broader society — is that traders will be able to choose the level of regulation they desire.Several countries have dollarized in recent years — including Panama, Ecuador and El Salvador — and none seems to regret it. President Javier Milei in Argentina has pledged dollarization, and that proved to be a popular campaign promise, although it remains to be seen if he can summon the resources to pull it off.The simplest scenario is that people outside developed nations use stablecoins more and more. Their economies will become partly “dollarized” — or if you wish to use an even less elegant term, “stablecoinized,” with the stablecoins backed by dollars. People in those economies will get more used to thinking and calculating in terms of dollars, even for their domestic transactions. Dual-currency economies may become more common, with both a domestic currency and dollar-backed stablecoins. Over time, fearing the redemption risks associated with stablecoins, many nations will opt for outright dollarization, either full or partial. In some cases, the dollar might end up predominating.Worth a ponder, and this is yet another scenario where crypto proves useful.The post Will stablecoins herald a broader-based dollarization? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media MediaRelated StoriesThe danger of Trump disobeying court ordersWhat should I ask Jennifer Pahlka?Lift the Ban on Supersonics: No Boom
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/42OTXFF
12.02.202508:15
What should I ask Austan Goolsbee?
Tyler Cowen
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him. So what should I ask? Here is his Wikipedia page. Here is Austan on Twitter. Here is scholar.google.com. Note that Austan is now president of the Chicago Fed. So what should I ask him?The post What should I ask Austan Goolsbee? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/42MnXC1
Tyler Cowen
Yes I will be doing a Conversation with him. So what should I ask? Here is his Wikipedia page. Here is Austan on Twitter. Here is scholar.google.com. Note that Austan is now president of the Chicago Fed. So what should I ask him?The post What should I ask Austan Goolsbee? appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/42MnXC1
11.02.202517:30
Tuesday assorted links
Tyler Cowen
1. How much did the modern mortgage support the baby boom?2. “Over the 2008-2016 period, the global cycle phase, the North accounts for 68% of Southern [bond] spreads’ fluctuations. Over the whole 1994-2024 period, however, Northern shocks account for less than 20% of these fluctuations.”3. Adam Smith cartoon.4. Bryan Caplan is telling childhood stories, and thus making it possible for the AIs to write his biography. I plan to do a bit of the same.5. Stuart Buck argues the indirect cost rates at the NIH are protected by current law.6. Did the Saudis raise the return to trading Luka?The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsIn reply to Naveen_K. It was not just the US that had a baby ... by Try a boulder of European gourmet salt4) Who asked for a Caplan biography? by JW#1 Only skimmed the abstract so take this with a boulder of ... by Naveen_K#5. Stuart Buck argues the indirect cost rates at the NIH are ... by MikeP
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/41aHw5P
Tyler Cowen
1. How much did the modern mortgage support the baby boom?2. “Over the 2008-2016 period, the global cycle phase, the North accounts for 68% of Southern [bond] spreads’ fluctuations. Over the whole 1994-2024 period, however, Northern shocks account for less than 20% of these fluctuations.”3. Adam Smith cartoon.4. Bryan Caplan is telling childhood stories, and thus making it possible for the AIs to write his biography. I plan to do a bit of the same.5. Stuart Buck argues the indirect cost rates at the NIH are protected by current law.6. Did the Saudis raise the return to trading Luka?The post Tuesday assorted links appeared first on Marginal REVOLUTION.MediaMedia Media Media Media Media Media Media CommentsIn reply to Naveen_K. It was not just the US that had a baby ... by Try a boulder of European gourmet salt4) Who asked for a Caplan biography? by JW#1 Only skimmed the abstract so take this with a boulder of ... by Naveen_K#5. Stuart Buck argues the indirect cost rates at the NIH are ... by MikeP
via Marginal Revolution https://bit.ly/41aHw5P
06.12.202406:00
My excellent Conversation with Stephen Kotkin
Tyler Cowen
It was so much fun we ran over and did about ninety minutes instead of the usual hour. Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary:Tyler sat down with Stephen to discuss the state of Russian Buddhism today, how shamanism persists in modern Siberia, whether Siberia might ever break away from Russia, what happened to the science city Akademgorodok, why Soviet obsession with cybernetics wasn’t just a mistake, what life was really like in 1980s Magnitogorsk, how modernist urban planning failed there, why Prokofiev returned to the USSR in 1936, what Stalin actually understood about artistic genius, how Stalin’s Georgian background influenced him (or not), what Michel Foucault taught him about power, why he risked his tenure case to study Japanese, how his wife’s work as a curator opened his eyes to Korean folk art, how he’s progressing on the next Stalin volume, and much more.And here is one excerpt:COWEN: What did you learn from Michel Foucault about power, or indeed anything else?KOTKIN: I was very lucky. I went to Berkeley for a PhD program in 1981. I finished in 1988, and then my first job was at Princeton University in 1989. In the middle of it, I went for French history, and I switched into Habsburg history, and then finally, I switched into Russian Soviet history. I started learning the Russian alphabet my third year of the PhD program when I was supposed to take my PhD exams, so it was a radical shift.Foucault — I met him because he came to Berkeley in the ’80s, just like Derrida came, just like Habermas came, Claude Lévi-Strauss, the anthropologist, came through. It was California. They were Europeans, and there was a wow factor for them. Foucault was also openly gay, and San Francisco’s gay culture was extraordinarily attractive to him. It was, unfortunately, the epoch of the AIDS epidemic.One time, I was at lunch with him, and he said to me, “Wouldn’t it be amazing if somebody applied my theories to Stalinism?” I’m sitting there, okay, I’m 23 years old. Imagine if you had traveled to Switzerland in the late 19th century, and you went up in those Engadin mountains, and you were at some café in the mountain air, and there’s this guy with a huge forehead and hair up in the air sitting there, and you went and introduced yourself. You said, “Hello, I’m Tyler,” and he said, “Hello, I’m Friedrich Nietzsche.” You would say, “Well, geez, this is interesting. I should have more conversations with you.”So, that’s the experience I had. I had read Foucault in seminar because it was very fashionable to do so, obviously, especially at Berkeley, especially in a culture that tilts one way politically, and I think you’ll guess which way that might be. But I didn’t understand what he said, so I went up to him as a naïf with this book, Madness and Civilization, which we had been forced to read, and I started asking him questions. “What does this mean? What does this mean? What is this passage? This is indecipherable.”He patiently explained to the moron that I was what he was trying to say. It sounded much more interesting coming from him verbally, sitting just a few feet away, than it had on the page. I was lucky to become the class coordinator for his course at Berkeley. He gave these lectures about the problem of the truth-teller in Ancient Greece.It was very far removed from . . . I had no classical training. Yes, I had Latin in high school because I went to Catholic school, and it was a required subject. I started as an altar boy with the Latin Mass, which quickly changed because of what happened at Vatican II. But no Greek, so it was completely Greek to me. Forgive me, that wasn’t planned that I was going to say that. It just happened spontaneously.Anyway, I just kept asking him more questions and invited him to go to things, and so we would have lunches and dinners. I introduced him to this place, Little Joe’s in Little Italy, part of San Francisco, which unfortunately is no longer there.…
Tyler Cowen
It was so much fun we ran over and did about ninety minutes instead of the usual hour. Here is the audio, video, and transcript. Here is part of the episode summary:Tyler sat down with Stephen to discuss the state of Russian Buddhism today, how shamanism persists in modern Siberia, whether Siberia might ever break away from Russia, what happened to the science city Akademgorodok, why Soviet obsession with cybernetics wasn’t just a mistake, what life was really like in 1980s Magnitogorsk, how modernist urban planning failed there, why Prokofiev returned to the USSR in 1936, what Stalin actually understood about artistic genius, how Stalin’s Georgian background influenced him (or not), what Michel Foucault taught him about power, why he risked his tenure case to study Japanese, how his wife’s work as a curator opened his eyes to Korean folk art, how he’s progressing on the next Stalin volume, and much more.And here is one excerpt:COWEN: What did you learn from Michel Foucault about power, or indeed anything else?KOTKIN: I was very lucky. I went to Berkeley for a PhD program in 1981. I finished in 1988, and then my first job was at Princeton University in 1989. In the middle of it, I went for French history, and I switched into Habsburg history, and then finally, I switched into Russian Soviet history. I started learning the Russian alphabet my third year of the PhD program when I was supposed to take my PhD exams, so it was a radical shift.Foucault — I met him because he came to Berkeley in the ’80s, just like Derrida came, just like Habermas came, Claude Lévi-Strauss, the anthropologist, came through. It was California. They were Europeans, and there was a wow factor for them. Foucault was also openly gay, and San Francisco’s gay culture was extraordinarily attractive to him. It was, unfortunately, the epoch of the AIDS epidemic.One time, I was at lunch with him, and he said to me, “Wouldn’t it be amazing if somebody applied my theories to Stalinism?” I’m sitting there, okay, I’m 23 years old. Imagine if you had traveled to Switzerland in the late 19th century, and you went up in those Engadin mountains, and you were at some café in the mountain air, and there’s this guy with a huge forehead and hair up in the air sitting there, and you went and introduced yourself. You said, “Hello, I’m Tyler,” and he said, “Hello, I’m Friedrich Nietzsche.” You would say, “Well, geez, this is interesting. I should have more conversations with you.”So, that’s the experience I had. I had read Foucault in seminar because it was very fashionable to do so, obviously, especially at Berkeley, especially in a culture that tilts one way politically, and I think you’ll guess which way that might be. But I didn’t understand what he said, so I went up to him as a naïf with this book, Madness and Civilization, which we had been forced to read, and I started asking him questions. “What does this mean? What does this mean? What is this passage? This is indecipherable.”He patiently explained to the moron that I was what he was trying to say. It sounded much more interesting coming from him verbally, sitting just a few feet away, than it had on the page. I was lucky to become the class coordinator for his course at Berkeley. He gave these lectures about the problem of the truth-teller in Ancient Greece.It was very far removed from . . . I had no classical training. Yes, I had Latin in high school because I went to Catholic school, and it was a required subject. I started as an altar boy with the Latin Mass, which quickly changed because of what happened at Vatican II. But no Greek, so it was completely Greek to me. Forgive me, that wasn’t planned that I was going to say that. It just happened spontaneously.Anyway, I just kept asking him more questions and invited him to go to things, and so we would have lunches and dinners. I introduced him to this place, Little Joe’s in Little Italy, part of San Francisco, which unfortunately is no longer there.…
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