The Last True Gael
03.02.202511:06
One of the best videos if not the best that I've watched on the storm.
We know its trees being blown over and flattening wires/electrical poles that has been a major cause of the issue.
However, what about the quality of the trees themselves? It's trees planted for money, harvesting purposes that are ultimately extremely weak and easy to blow over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tImcNAGC_yk
We know its trees being blown over and flattening wires/electrical poles that has been a major cause of the issue.
However, what about the quality of the trees themselves? It's trees planted for money, harvesting purposes that are ultimately extremely weak and easy to blow over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tImcNAGC_yk
21.12.202412:25
Great essay that everyone should read.
https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/dostoyevsky-the-modern-intelligentsia?triedRedirect=true
https://dominiccummings.substack.com/p/dostoyevsky-the-modern-intelligentsia?triedRedirect=true
07.12.202416:45
You should be able to leave comments for the stream under this post if you wish.
27.11.202413:25
Even since I wrote this post, in the space of a few hours, the rouble has gone from 105 roubles to a dollar to 115 roubles to a dollar.
This level of fluctuations in the market is simply not normal and extremely high. Often a very bad sign for any kind of economy.
This level of fluctuations in the market is simply not normal and extremely high. Often a very bad sign for any kind of economy.
Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:
Archiving Irish Diversity Stuff (AIDS)
23.11.202416:05
Front page of the Wall Street Journal on Irish corporate tax system
18.11.202414:49
Quick post/summary on the General Election and the recent stream I did, as of now. Subject to change/major news story.
FG - Will do worse than the polls suggest. This is because of people being angry/organizational issues with half their TDs not running and RTE protecting them which is not reflecting reality. Whatever the polls are, subtract 3%-4% from them.
FF - Will remain fairly flat, potentially going down slightly.
SF - Will remain fairly flat, potentially going up slightly. However, the anti establishment anger is going to be spread more amongst Aontu/II/Nationalist Candidates/Independents and even The Social Democrats. So what happened in 2020 will not happen this time.
GP - Will be wiped out and will only return a small fraction of their TDs.
SD - Will do well as old Green Party voters move to them and vote for them.
Labour - Will remain flat.
PBP - Will remain flat, though Murphy is in trouble.
Aontu/II - Will do well, however will lose votes to Nationalist candidates.
Nationalist candidates - Will do well in terms of raw votes/better than polled. Out of all the constituencies five to seven will do respectably well. Respectfully well means getting their deposit back and surviving for a lot of counts. One seat as an outside chance. Vote splitting, losing out to Aontu/II in the midlands. Councillors will do better than non councillors.
This will, in my opinion, end up being a more fractured Dail than seen previously.
Worst outcome is FF/FG and Social Democrats or Labour.
When the count is in, I'll come back to this list and see how accurate it was.
FG - Will do worse than the polls suggest. This is because of people being angry/organizational issues with half their TDs not running and RTE protecting them which is not reflecting reality. Whatever the polls are, subtract 3%-4% from them.
FF - Will remain fairly flat, potentially going down slightly.
SF - Will remain fairly flat, potentially going up slightly. However, the anti establishment anger is going to be spread more amongst Aontu/II/Nationalist Candidates/Independents and even The Social Democrats. So what happened in 2020 will not happen this time.
GP - Will be wiped out and will only return a small fraction of their TDs.
SD - Will do well as old Green Party voters move to them and vote for them.
Labour - Will remain flat.
PBP - Will remain flat, though Murphy is in trouble.
Aontu/II - Will do well, however will lose votes to Nationalist candidates.
Nationalist candidates - Will do well in terms of raw votes/better than polled. Out of all the constituencies five to seven will do respectably well. Respectfully well means getting their deposit back and surviving for a lot of counts. One seat as an outside chance. Vote splitting, losing out to Aontu/II in the midlands. Councillors will do better than non councillors.
This will, in my opinion, end up being a more fractured Dail than seen previously.
Worst outcome is FF/FG and Social Democrats or Labour.
When the count is in, I'll come back to this list and see how accurate it was.
18.01.202511:46
Let's talk about the housing market in 2025.
First off, interest rates are now at 3%. Lower interest rates mean more people are able to enter the market and apply for mortgages which pushes up demand.
Second, pent up demand from millennials and zoomers. The result of 68% of young people in their twenties living with their parents will mean, amongst a cohort of people, lead to more money being saved up; not paying rent or bills. This means more people can enter the housing market, especially as even younger people are looking for a house.
The result of all of this will be that housing prices will increase further.
Third, our water infrastructure and housing output is reaching maximum capacity. Housing commencements are NOT housing completions, or even planning permission to explicitly built houses. Those latter two have been pretty stagnant for the past 18 months or so. Any journalist who discusses how we "just need to build more houses" and feel smug about it, is quite frankly, wrong. As for water infrastructure, we're at the stage where housing construction is now being cancelled because of pressure on the main water line.
Fourth, Fine Gael banking policy has essentially been "eh sure, we need investment funds, private investments and foreigners to fund the housing market, not the banking sector." The result of this is that investment funds backed up by capital will continue to keep doing what they're doing.
Fifth, foreigners investing. The previous four points, alongside Ireland having some of the most lax laws for buying property in Europe (while other countries like left wing Spain are now putting 100% taxes on non EU people buying property) means it will be easier for foreigners to buy up property here, pushing prices up further.
Sixth, in their policy for government, FF/FG have spoken about increasing immigration. This in turn, will lead to higher demand for housing.
In conclusion, the housing crisis will continue to get worse over the coming months. The impacts of the housing crisis that we already see will continue to compound.
As they do so, more radical solutions will be looked at. But as always, demand will never be discussed.
I wonder why?
First off, interest rates are now at 3%. Lower interest rates mean more people are able to enter the market and apply for mortgages which pushes up demand.
Second, pent up demand from millennials and zoomers. The result of 68% of young people in their twenties living with their parents will mean, amongst a cohort of people, lead to more money being saved up; not paying rent or bills. This means more people can enter the housing market, especially as even younger people are looking for a house.
The result of all of this will be that housing prices will increase further.
Third, our water infrastructure and housing output is reaching maximum capacity. Housing commencements are NOT housing completions, or even planning permission to explicitly built houses. Those latter two have been pretty stagnant for the past 18 months or so. Any journalist who discusses how we "just need to build more houses" and feel smug about it, is quite frankly, wrong. As for water infrastructure, we're at the stage where housing construction is now being cancelled because of pressure on the main water line.
Fourth, Fine Gael banking policy has essentially been "eh sure, we need investment funds, private investments and foreigners to fund the housing market, not the banking sector." The result of this is that investment funds backed up by capital will continue to keep doing what they're doing.
Fifth, foreigners investing. The previous four points, alongside Ireland having some of the most lax laws for buying property in Europe (while other countries like left wing Spain are now putting 100% taxes on non EU people buying property) means it will be easier for foreigners to buy up property here, pushing prices up further.
Sixth, in their policy for government, FF/FG have spoken about increasing immigration. This in turn, will lead to higher demand for housing.
In conclusion, the housing crisis will continue to get worse over the coming months. The impacts of the housing crisis that we already see will continue to compound.
As they do so, more radical solutions will be looked at. But as always, demand will never be discussed.
I wonder why?
08.12.202400:22
07.12.202410:52
Going live at 21:30 today to talk about the results of the Irish general election.
I'll open up comments later on.
I'll open up comments later on.
27.11.202411:40
Indeed.
Typically, there's a three people per house rule.
And that's not taking into consideration who and what organizations are buying these homes.
Where these homes are located and their demand.
I've talked a lot about the housing crisis on this channel, but you're simply not getting around the fact that if you have a huge surge in your population, mathematically, you can't just "build more houses."
It doesn't work like that.
https://t.me/OrlaredChan/10128
Typically, there's a three people per house rule.
And that's not taking into consideration who and what organizations are buying these homes.
Where these homes are located and their demand.
I've talked a lot about the housing crisis on this channel, but you're simply not getting around the fact that if you have a huge surge in your population, mathematically, you can't just "build more houses."
It doesn't work like that.
https://t.me/OrlaredChan/10128
20.11.202416:32
And there you have it. A major talking point of this channel for the past few years is now according to Harris a "significant potential economic challenge."
There's so many things that need to be changed/looked at differently in terms of how this country works.
Economics and geopolitical shocks is one of them.
This is gross mismanagement of the economy. Close to two decades to prepare for this. All the areas to work on to protect yourself from these kind of problems: infrastructure, energy, domestic industries, transport, piggybacking off of Brexit and Zero Seats disasters, having good foreign policy etc have just been thrown to the wayside.
Guess there's only one solution according to Fine Gael.
More Simon Harris TikTok videos.
There's so many things that need to be changed/looked at differently in terms of how this country works.
Economics and geopolitical shocks is one of them.
This is gross mismanagement of the economy. Close to two decades to prepare for this. All the areas to work on to protect yourself from these kind of problems: infrastructure, energy, domestic industries, transport, piggybacking off of Brexit and Zero Seats disasters, having good foreign policy etc have just been thrown to the wayside.
Guess there's only one solution according to Fine Gael.
More Simon Harris TikTok videos.
Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:Archiving Irish Diversity Stuff (AIDS)
17.11.202421:55
Irish tech funding falls 18% in 2024 as bosses warn of new isolationist US policies
According to the Irish Venture Capital Association, the fall in VC funding here could soon be exacerbated by “isolationist” policies from Donald Trump’s incoming administration
https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/irish-tech-funding-falls-18pc-in-2024-as-bosses-warn-of-new-isolationist-us-policies/a233424113.html
According to the Irish Venture Capital Association, the fall in VC funding here could soon be exacerbated by “isolationist” policies from Donald Trump’s incoming administration
https://www.independent.ie/business/technology/irish-tech-funding-falls-18pc-in-2024-as-bosses-warn-of-new-isolationist-us-policies/a233424113.html
24.12.202412:00
Merry Christmas everyone.
07.12.202423:57
02.12.202411:15
A few thoughts on the general election.
First, lets look at the good since 2020.
The leftist block of votes (Social Democrats plus Green Party plus Labour plus People Before Profit) is down considerably, both in terms of seats as a percentage of the total, and in terms of raw votes. Far from a collapse but a trend downwards on the whole.
Second, the right wing block of votes (not necessarily parties but we'll talk about that later) is up. Aontu doubled their vote and their seats this time around. Independents, Nationalist candidates are all up as well.
Now for the bad.
This election was not surprising in general. However, for me anyway, the most interesting thing that happened is how FF and FG are up beyond the exit poll, with FF being the major factor I got wrong here.
Why?
First of all, like I've talked about before, there has been electoral gerrymandering in order to increase the amount of three seat constituencies compared to 2020. The more splits and constituencies with small seats, the harder it is for smaller parties to make a breakthrough. Second, FG and FF transferred HEAVILY to each other, far far more than in 2020. The strategy during the campaign seems to have worked. Telling voters to transfer to Fine Gael if you are a Fianna Fail voter, and telling voters to vote Fianna Fail if you are a Fine Gael voter.
The main takeaway from this is that there has been a shift in this election, while it is becoming more fractured, towards (in a mathematical sense not a literal one) something closer to a first past the post system in the United Kingdom. I wonder are the leftist parties going to start talking about merging with each other, in order to keep up with something like this.
Tldr: The fewer seats you have in a constituency and the more transfers you have between two parties, the more it resembles a first past the post system.
This "convergence towards first past the post" is going to make it harder for new candidates to get in the future, especially if all of these leftist parties pull something like this off.
Next possible coalitions.
FF and FG want the small leftist party to take the hit (as what happens in every election) and to more than likely, give the more controversial departments (health, housing, anything to do with immigration) to in order to save face. Coalition stability is the aim here. So I doubt that they will go near Aontu or Independents or Independent Ireland.
They want Labour or Social Democrats.
So the next question is, what will these parties do?
One of them will get in more than likely, but don't be surprised if both get in. Both those parties might go with each other, under the logic that they get to be in government, but they both won't get wiped out in the next general election.
This is grim.
I've covered on the channel before how disastrous Rory Hearne would be, if he had any say in housing, amongst other things. But that's just the tip of the iceberg.
This post has gone on long enough, but ultimately, for the most part, the worst outcome has happened.
I'll cover this in more detail later on.
In summary, what happened in this election was this.
Average person took a look at the leftist parties, didn't like what they saw.
Average person took a look at right wing parties, some voted out of desperation for them, but didn't really like what they saw.
That, in combination with FF/FGs transfer to each other tactic, resulted in people propping up the two major parties yet again.
First, lets look at the good since 2020.
The leftist block of votes (Social Democrats plus Green Party plus Labour plus People Before Profit) is down considerably, both in terms of seats as a percentage of the total, and in terms of raw votes. Far from a collapse but a trend downwards on the whole.
Second, the right wing block of votes (not necessarily parties but we'll talk about that later) is up. Aontu doubled their vote and their seats this time around. Independents, Nationalist candidates are all up as well.
Now for the bad.
This election was not surprising in general. However, for me anyway, the most interesting thing that happened is how FF and FG are up beyond the exit poll, with FF being the major factor I got wrong here.
Why?
First of all, like I've talked about before, there has been electoral gerrymandering in order to increase the amount of three seat constituencies compared to 2020. The more splits and constituencies with small seats, the harder it is for smaller parties to make a breakthrough. Second, FG and FF transferred HEAVILY to each other, far far more than in 2020. The strategy during the campaign seems to have worked. Telling voters to transfer to Fine Gael if you are a Fianna Fail voter, and telling voters to vote Fianna Fail if you are a Fine Gael voter.
The main takeaway from this is that there has been a shift in this election, while it is becoming more fractured, towards (in a mathematical sense not a literal one) something closer to a first past the post system in the United Kingdom. I wonder are the leftist parties going to start talking about merging with each other, in order to keep up with something like this.
Tldr: The fewer seats you have in a constituency and the more transfers you have between two parties, the more it resembles a first past the post system.
This "convergence towards first past the post" is going to make it harder for new candidates to get in the future, especially if all of these leftist parties pull something like this off.
Next possible coalitions.
FF and FG want the small leftist party to take the hit (as what happens in every election) and to more than likely, give the more controversial departments (health, housing, anything to do with immigration) to in order to save face. Coalition stability is the aim here. So I doubt that they will go near Aontu or Independents or Independent Ireland.
They want Labour or Social Democrats.
So the next question is, what will these parties do?
One of them will get in more than likely, but don't be surprised if both get in. Both those parties might go with each other, under the logic that they get to be in government, but they both won't get wiped out in the next general election.
This is grim.
I've covered on the channel before how disastrous Rory Hearne would be, if he had any say in housing, amongst other things. But that's just the tip of the iceberg.
This post has gone on long enough, but ultimately, for the most part, the worst outcome has happened.
I'll cover this in more detail later on.
In summary, what happened in this election was this.
Average person took a look at the leftist parties, didn't like what they saw.
Average person took a look at right wing parties, some voted out of desperation for them, but didn't really like what they saw.
That, in combination with FF/FGs transfer to each other tactic, resulted in people propping up the two major parties yet again.
26.11.202418:26
Gavin Pepper in a strong place to take a seat, according to RTE.
You can find the original tweet here.
You can find the original tweet here.
Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:Archiving Irish Diversity Stuff (AIDS)
18.11.202415:11
Ireland saw the largest decrease in industrial production between August 2023 - September 2024 within the EU
https://x.com/eu_eurostat/status/1857000531283038378
https://x.com/eu_eurostat/status/1857000531283038378
Кайра бөлүшүлгөн:Archiving Irish Diversity Stuff (AIDS)
29.10.202413:07
Trump stating on Joe Rogan he intends to drop corporation tax to 15% and cites also about Apple having issues moving their money back to the US from Europe
23.12.202412:45
Good clip on Dominic Cummings talking about how the UK Civil Service works.
Thing is, a lot of this applies to the Irish system as well.
Thing is, a lot of this applies to the Irish system as well.
07.12.202423:57
Thank you for listening.
Stream where I talk about the Irish general election. The trends, the outcomes, FF/FG transfers, future geopolitical events. I'll post the video if it come through.
My internet dropped out at 12 minutes, so you can skip that if you want.
Stream where I talk about the Irish general election. The trends, the outcomes, FF/FG transfers, future geopolitical events. I'll post the video if it come through.
My internet dropped out at 12 minutes, so you can skip that if you want.
29.11.202413:33
What?
I was covering the vaccine and the excess mortality and rip.ie before the vast majority of people, that was my entire channel from about October 2020 onwards.
Just because I left it out of one message lol.
I was covering the vaccine and the excess mortality and rip.ie before the vast majority of people, that was my entire channel from about October 2020 onwards.
Just because I left it out of one message lol.
25.11.202411:04
Two things.
1: This woman is ex FG. So she's openly mentioning the goal after the general election.
2: The fact that they're talking like this in terms of having the two parties together, point at the fact that increasingly, its going to be difficult for FF/FG to combined, get past forty percent.
A horrible combination. Student union "safe space" politics influencing the running of the country, as Ireland faces into potentially some very turbulent times.
Vote nationalist!
1: This woman is ex FG. So she's openly mentioning the goal after the general election.
2: The fact that they're talking like this in terms of having the two parties together, point at the fact that increasingly, its going to be difficult for FF/FG to combined, get past forty percent.
A horrible combination. Student union "safe space" politics influencing the running of the country, as Ireland faces into potentially some very turbulent times.
Vote nationalist!
18.11.202415:09
^ Having said that, to emphasize, this is as of now and things could change completely. So vote Nationalist, and see if some interesting surprises can happen as a result.
A lot of people make up their mind in the last few days of all of this.
A lot of people make up their mind in the last few days of all of this.
16.10.202421:20
Meanwhile, in reply to the above post.
Small businesses/restaurants and pub closures are beginning to accelerate rapidly. The fact that they're closing well before the Christmas peak tells you all you need to know.
Will something come of this, or is it like that meme where "nothing ever happens"?
Who knows, but it feels like we're in 2006. And we're a bank. And our portfolio is made up of loans to the construction sector. And all it will take is a spark to some dynamite to ignite the whole thing.
Small businesses/restaurants and pub closures are beginning to accelerate rapidly. The fact that they're closing well before the Christmas peak tells you all you need to know.
Will something come of this, or is it like that meme where "nothing ever happens"?
Who knows, but it feels like we're in 2006. And we're a bank. And our portfolio is made up of loans to the construction sector. And all it will take is a spark to some dynamite to ignite the whole thing.
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